Post-Mortem: Elections

• The Saskatchewan Party won the Saskatchewan Election (also see my post Saskatchewan Election v2).  Last September, I said they had a 90% chance of winning, which I recently increased to 95%.  I might have been slightly overconfident.
• The PCs won the Manitoba Election (also see my post Manitoba Election v2).  Last September, I said there was an 80% chance that they would win the election, which I increased to 91% in March.  These numbers seem about right.
• Mulcair lost the NDP leadership review (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In December, I said there was a 65% chance that Mulcair would lose.  That might have been a bit low, given the low level of support received by Mulcair.