Post-Mortem: International Politics

• The Spanish election held last December did not lead to the formation of a stable government.  Thus, I have decided to void my Spanish PM and Spanish PM v2 questions.  These seemed like reasonable questions at the time, but they unfortunately assumed that a stable government would be formed as a result of the December election.
• The Austrian Presidential Election resulted in the election of Alexander Van der Bellen.  I said he had a 35% chance of winning, which was the highest I gave any candidate.  I might have been under confident for this question, although the final result was fairly close.
• The Dominican Republic Election was won by Danilo Medina, whom I said had a 77% chance of winning.
• The Peruvian Election was won by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.  I said he had a 10% chance of winning, but I gave the same percentage chance to two other candidates.  I think this was a fairly reasonable prediction.

Post-Mortem: Miscellaneous

• The City of Ottawa has asked the province for permission to use photo radar (see my post Photo Radar Ottawa).  In March, I said there was only a 30% chance that this would happen, which I think might have been a reasonable estimate, given the opposition to the idea at the time.
• Construction has started on the Mooney's Bay Playground.  I said there was an 85% chance that this would happen in 2016, which was a good estimate.
• The City of Toronto has passed a taxi reform bylaw (see my post Toronto Taxi Reform).  In April, I said there was a 30% chance that this would happen, which might have been a slight underestimate.
• The M3MSat Launch has taken place.  Last July, I said there was a 70% chance it would be launched before the end of 2016.
• Certain New Brunswick Liquor Limits were found to be unconstitutional.  I said there was a 20% chance that this would happen, which might have been too low.

Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• A federal law regulating assisted suicide has been passed, slightly after the Supreme Court extended deadline.  In February 2015, I said there was only a 20% chance that a law would not be passed before the existing law was struck down (in my post Assisted Suicide Law).  This may have been a bit too low.  In November 2015 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v2) , I said there was a 50% chance that the February 2016 deadline would be extended, as it was.  This might have been a slightly under-confident estimate.  In February 2016 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v3), I said there was a 25% chance that the existing law would expire, which again might have been too low of an estimate.  Finally, this June (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v4). I said there was a 40% chance a new assisted suicide law would be passed by the end of June.  Overall, I may have been too confident that a law would be passed by the deadline, but not confident enough that a law would be eventually passed.
• The federal government has created an Electoral Reform Committee.  I said there was a 45% chance that such a committee would be created by the end of June,
• A CPP Expansion Agreement has been reached (also see my post CPP Expansion Agreement v2).  Last December, I said there was a 25% chance of such an agreement being reached, which I later increased to 50%.  Both estimates may have been too low.

Post-Mortem: Ottawa Politics

• Ottawa City Council voted to legalise ride-sharing services (see my posts Ride-Sharing Legalization and Ottawa Taxi Reform).  Last May, I said there was a 25% chance of the city or the province passing a law to legalise ride-sharing services by the end of 2016.  That may have been too low, given that the city was conducting a taxi review at the time.  After the City of Ottawa community and protective services committee approved a ride-sharing bylaw, I said there was an 80% chance the by-law would be passed by City Council, which seems reasonable.
• The Rendez Vous LeBreton proposal (which has the explicit cooperation of the Ottawa Senators)  has been selected by the NCC (see my posts Senators Lebreton Flats and Lebreton Flats Redevelopment).  Last January, I said there was a 25% chance of the proposal with Senators involvement being chosen, which may have been slightly too low (although there rumours of 4 or more proposals at that time).  Last December, I said there was a 50% chance of the  Rendez Vous LeBreton proposal being selected.  Overall, the process was smoother than I expected.
• The Rideau Carleton Raceway lockout has ended (see my post OLG Lockout v2).  I said there was a 25% chance it would end in May or June, and a 60% chance it would end before the end of June.  The timing is thus about what I expected.

Post-Mortem: Business

• The Charter Time Warner Merger has completed.  Last May, I said there was a 30% chance the deal would complete.  At that point, there was still substantial uncertainty over whether the deal would go through.  Still, a 50% estimate (based on market movements) might have been better than a 30% estimate.
• Staples and Office Depot abandoned their merger, after US regulatory opposition (see my post Staples Merger Case).  Last December, I said there was a 75% chance that the merger would be abandoned.
• The LCBO waterfront lands have been sold to Menkes Developments (see my post LCBO Land Sale).  Last December, I said there was a 85% chance a sale would happen before the end of 2016, and a 50% chance of a sale to a company other than Wittington Properties (which was one of the bidders).
• There were no Bank of Canada interest rate changes in April or May (see my posts Canada Interest Rate April and Canada Interest Rate May).  I said there was a 75% chance of no change in April, and a 85% chance of no change in May.  Overall, I think I may have been over-predicting change.

Post-Mortem: Federal Politics

• Canadian airstrikes in Syria were stopped by the end of March (see my post Syrian Airstrikes Canada).  Last November, I said there was a 75% chance that they would end by then, which seems reasonable.
• The government succeeded in bringing in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of February (see my post Syrian Refugee Timing v2).  Last December, I said they had a 60% chance of success, which might have been too low.  I was somewhat wary because the government had delayed the deadline from the end of December to the end of February.
• Deepak Chopra is still the (see my post Canada Post CEO Resignation).  Last December, I said there was a 65% chance he would stay in office through the end of February, after the government apparently asked him to resign.
• The Office of Religious Freedom has been closed.  In February, I said there was a 75% chance that this would happen, which might have been somewhat low.
• Liberal Membership Fees have been abolished.  A month ago, I said there was a 90% chance that this would happen, which seems about right.

Post-Mortem: Elections

• The Saskatchewan Party won the Saskatchewan Election (also see my post Saskatchewan Election v2).  Last September, I said they had a 90% chance of winning, which I recently increased to 95%.  I might have been slightly overconfident.
• The PCs won the Manitoba Election (also see my post Manitoba Election v2).  Last September, I said there was an 80% chance that they would win the election, which I increased to 91% in March.  These numbers seem about right.
• Mulcair lost the NDP leadership review (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In December, I said there was a 65% chance that Mulcair would lose.  That might have been a bit low, given the low level of support received by Mulcair.

Post-Mortem: Courts

• Jian Ghomeshi was acquitted in his recent trial (see my post Jian Ghomeshi Verdict).  I said there was a 65% chance that this would happen, which might have been a bit low given how strongly the conventional wisdom at the time suggested that Ghomeshi would be acquitted.
• Mike Duffy was acquitted on all counts (see my posts Mike Duffy Verdict and Mike Duffy Jail Time).  I said there was a 15% chance that he would be completely acquitted, and a 65% chance that he wouldn't face jail time.  The 15% estimate might have been too low, although complete acquittal didn't seem like what the conventional wisdom suggested at the time.
• The Supreme Court found mandatory minimum drug sentences unconstitutional (see my post SC Drug Sentences).  Last May, I said there was a 70% chance that this would be the Supreme Court's finding, which may have been a bit conservative.

Post-Mortem: Business Questions

• Allstream was sold to Zayo Group (see my post Allstream Sale).  Last September, I said there was 65% chance that Allstream would be sold by the end of this August, and a 15% (unconditional) chance that Allstream would be sold to some company other than Rogers, Bell, or Telus.  As usual, I might have given the "Other" option too small of a chance.
• Rexall is being acquired by McKesson Corp. (see my post Rexall Acquisition).  Last September, I said there was a 15% chance that Rexall would be acquired by the end of 2016.  I'm not sure this wasn't a bad estimate; acquisitions aren't that common, and there didn't seem to be any specific information suggesting that Rexall was going to be acquired soon.
• The Canadian Oil Sands Acquisition by Suncor has closed.  Last October, I said there was a 50% chance that Canadian Oil Sands would be acquired by the end of 2016, and a 20% chance that Suncor would acquire them.  Given that Suncor was actively pursing Canadian Oil Sands at the time, these numbers may have been a bit low.
• The Corus-Shaw Deal has closed.  In March, before it received regulatory approval, I said there was a 75% chance it would close, which seems reasonable.
• The CP-NS merger has been called off.  I said there was a 20% chance the merger would go through in 2016, which seems reasonable.

Budget Post-Mortem

• The budget was released on March 22 (see my post Federal Budget Timing).  I said there was a 35% chance that it would be released in the week of March 21st, and that week was the one I thought the budget would most likely be released in.
• The federal budget deficit for 2016 is $29.4 billion (see my posts Balanced Budget 2016, Balanced Budget 2016 v2, Federal Budget Deficit, Federal Budget Deficit v2, and Federal Budget Deficit v3).  In my initial prediction last April, I said there was a 35% chance of an unbalanced budget.  During the election campaign, I decreased that to 25%, because of the NDP pledge to run balanced budgets.  After the election, I said there was a 70% chance of a budget deficit larger than $10 billion.  In February, after the fiscal update, I projected a 30% chance of a deficit larger than $25 billion, and a 90% chance of a deficit smaller than $30 billion.  Just before the budget was released, I said there was a 85% chance of a deficit larger than $20 billion, and a 50% chance of a deficit smaller than $30 billion. Overall, I generally underestimated the size of the budget deficit, and I may have under-reacted to news suggesting that the budget deficit would be smaller than expected.
• The Liberals are repealing income-splitting for parents (see my post Income-Splitting Repeal)..  Last April, I said there was a 35% chance that this would happen.
• The budget announced a 1.61% 2017 EI premium rate (see my post EI Premium Rate 2017).  In December, I said there was a 35% chance of a 2017 EI premium rate between 1.6% and 1.7%, and I thought this was the most likely range,

Post-Mortem: Ottawa Questions

• The Ottawa Jail Strike was averted.  In mid-December, I said there was a 60% chance of an agreement by the end of April, and a 75% chance of no strike by then.  I may have been a bit pessimistic about how long it would take to reach an agreement.
• The Rideau Canal Opening was in January.  In late December, I said there was a 75% chance of the canal opening in January, as it almost always does.  Perhaps I should have paid more attention here to the base rate; the canal has only opened later than January once in its history.
• The Ottawa OMB Appeal was not successful.  I said there was a 70% chance of non-success.  This might be one of the cases where I was under-confident.
• The OLG Lockout continued beyond the end of February.  In December, I said there was only a 15% chance of the lockout lasting that long.

Economic Question Post-Mortem

There are a bunch of economic questions that have resolved in the past few months.

• Canadian GDP Growth in 2015 was 1.2% (see data here).  That fell within my 1% to 2% range, which I gave a 25% chance of.  Overall, I gave a 40% chance of GDP growth being lower than 2%.
• US Economic Growth in 2015 was 2.4% (see data here).  I gave a 22% chance of 2% to 3% growth, and a 55% chance of growth lower than 3%.
• Canadian Inflation in 2015 was 1.6% (see data here).  I said there was a 35% chance of an inflation rate between 1% and 2%, and a 65% chance of an inflation rate below 2%, so this is in line with what I expected.
• In January, the Bank of Canada didn't change the main interest rate (see my posts Canada Interest Rate January and Canada Interest Rate January v2).  I originally said that there was an 85% chance of an unchanged rate, which I later decreased to 47%.  This is one of those unusual cases where my initial prediction was better than my later predictions, and I may have over-reacted to later news.
• The Bank didn't change the interest rate in March either (see my post Canada Interest Rate March).  I said there was a 65% chance of an unchanged rate.

Overall, my economic projections might have overestimated the variance of economic variables; all of the predictions here fell in one of the middle ranges (counting "unchanged rate" as a middle range), which would be expected to happen by chance only 3.6% of the time, if my probabilities were correct.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Global Miscellaneous

• The Islamic State's actions in Palmyra count as destruction, in my view (see my post IS Palmyra).  I said there was a 40% chance of such destruction.  In hindsight, this question was a bit too vague as to what counted as destruction.
• There was a Puerto Rico Default in August.  In May, I said there was a 20% chance of such a default.  I'm not sure if this was too low or not.
• Russia did not withdraw its ambassador to Turkey (see my post Russian Ambassador Turkey).  In November, I said there was a 25% chance of such a withdrawal, which might have been too high.
• There was also no Turkish apology for the downing of the Russian fighter jet (see my post Turkish Apology Russia).  I said there was a 25% chance of this as well.
• There was no US law approving the Keystone XL pipeline in 2015 (see my post Keystone XL Approval).  I said there was a 20% chance of such a law.
• The US repealed its country of origin meat-labelling laws in December (see my post US Meat Labelling Laws).  In May, I said there was a 25% chance of such a repeal in fall 2015, and a 65% chance of a repeal before the end of the year.  I think those estimates were about right.
• I have decided to void my Paris Climate Deal Binding question, as there are differing reports as to whether the deal is binding,  I should have been more specific with this question.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Global Leaders and Elections

• Pierre Nkurunziza has kept the presidency of Burundi (see my post Nkurunziza in Burundi).  In May, I said there was a 35% chance of him leaving office, which may have been too conservative.
• Tammam Salam has remained leader of Lebannon (see my post Tammam Salam Leaving Office).  In August, I said there was a 30% chance he would leave office, which might have been too high, since these leader exit questions rarely trigger.
• The People's Party won the most seats in the Spanish Election.  In June, I said there was a 30% chance of this; I probably overestimated the chances of Podemos winning the most seats at that time.
• The Venezuela election was held on December 6th, and resulted in a victory for the MUD coalition (see my posts Venezuelan Election Date and Venezuelan Election Result).  In June, I said there was a 75% chance that an election would be held in 2015.  In July, I said there was a 70% chance that MUD would win the election.
• As far as I can tell, the For the Love of Egypt bloc won the most seats in the Egyptian Parliamentary Election.  I said there was a 35% chance that this would happen, and this was the most likely outcome according to my scoring.
• There was no Libyan Unity Government in 2015.  In October, I said there was a 20% chance such a government would be formed.

Year-End Post Mortem: Canadian Politics

• The Liberals won the NL Election in December.  In March, I said they had a 90% chance of winning.
• The new House Speaker is Geoff Regan.  I gave him a 20% chance of winning, as I gave two other similar candidates, so this is not a great surprise.
• The government has announced a TFSA Limit Contraction.  In April, I said there was a 20% chance of this happening.  I gave a low estimate at that time because I thought the Conservatives might stay in power, and that whoever replaced them might move slowly or not at all in decreasing the TFSA contribution limit.
• The federal government has agreed to resettle more than 30,000 Syrian refugees (see my post Syrian Refugee Resettlement).  I said there was a 40% chance of this large a number in September, which seems reasonable if a bit low.
• The federal government did not succeed in bringing in 25,000 (or 20,000) Syrian refugees by the end of the year (see my post Syrian Refugee Timing).  In November, I said there was a 65% chance of success.

Year-End Post Mortem: Miscellaneous

• Whole Foods was apparently fined $30,000 for being open on Good Friday (see article here, and my post Whole Foods Fine).  I said there was a 20% chance of a fine larger than $10,000.  This was a very awkward question, because I couldn't find any reference to the fine until well after the question close date; I will choose less obscure questions in the future.
• The Ottawa Airport taxi strike ended in December (see my post Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike v2).  In mid-October, I said there was a 35% chance of it ending in late November or December, and a 65% chance of it ending before the end of 2015.  I think those numbers were approximately reasonable.
• The Ontario government has not required a Beer Store Franchise Fee.  In January 2015, I said there was a 60% chance of such a fee being required.  This was one of those cases where I focussed too much on a single proposed suggestion; the government decided to change the liquor licensing system in other ways instead.
• At the beginning of 2016, both CraveTV and Shomi were available to all Canadians (see my post CraveTV / Shomi Restrictions).  In March 2015, I said there was a 18% chance of this occurring, which might have been too low.  At that time, there were definitely signs that Shomi would expand availability, and that would plausibly force CraveTV to do so also.  On the other hand, this was a very close question; CraveTV only expanded availability at the beginning of the year.
• The BOC interest rate in December was unchanged (see my post Canada Interest Rate December).  I said there was an 80% chance of this occurring, which might have been too low.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Crime

• There were fewer Ottawa Shooting Incidents in 2015 then 2014 (also see my post Ottawa Shootings v2).  In January, I said there was a 75% chance of this, which I decreased to 60% in November.  I think my initial estimate was reasonable, but I may have over-reacted in November.
• There has been no announcement regarding the closure of the main Nunuvut Jail.  I said there was a 25% chance of such an announcement, which was almost certainly too high; closing the jail would have been an extreme step to take.
• As far as I can tell, there has been no permanent ban on Toronto Police Carding.  I said there was a 70% chance of such a ban.  This was definitely an overestimate; the status quo (of an extended temporary ban, in this case) is almost always the most likely outcome for this sort of question.
• There was no lethal terrorist attacks in Canada in 2015 (see my post Terrorism in Canada).  In January, I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably about right.
• There was no lethal Islamist Terrorism in the EU in 2015 after November 23rd.  I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably too high.
• Salah Abdeslam, one of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks, has not been apprehended (see my post Salah Abdeslam Apprehension).  On November 27th, I said there was a 70% chance he would be apprehended by the end of the year, which was probably too high.

Year-End Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• There were no Senate Appointments before the new government was sworn in.  In July, I said there was a 30% chance of such appointments, which might have been too high,
• Trudeau didn't leave the leadership by the end of the year (see my post Trudeau Liberal Party Leader).  In September, I said there was a 15% chance of this happening.  This might have been a reasonable estimate; if the Liberals had done very badly in the election, Trudeau might well have left.
• Mulcair didn't leave the leadership by the end of the year either (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In September, I said there was a 20% chance that he'd leave.  Given that the NDP did very badly in the election, but Mulcair still didn't leave, that estimate might have been too high.
• The federal government has announced it plans to make Federal Electoral Changes.  In July, I said there was a 50% chance of such an announcement.  Most of the uncertainty in this question was uncertainty about who the government would be.

Year-End Post Mortem: Economics

I'm going to go back to the backlog of questions that resolved at the end of the year.  Today, I'll focus on the economics questions.

• The Canadian Dollar was at 72 cents US at the end of the year, which fits in my lowest category of less than 80 cents (see also Canadian Dollar v2).  In my original post in January 2015, I said there was a 25% chance of this low of a value, which I later increased to 50%.  II might have underestimated the variability in the Canadian dollar.
• The Canada Overnight Rate was 0.5% at the end of the year, which fitted into my category of 0.75% or lower (see also Canada Overnight Rate v2).  Before the January rate cut, I said there was a 15% chance of a rate that low, which I later increased to 70%.  Again, I might have initially underestimated the chance of a rate cut.
• The US Federal Funds Rate target range was 0.25% to 0.5% at the end of the year.  I said there was a 25% chance of a rate that low.  Again, I might have overestimated the probability of a significant rate increase.
• The Oil Price at the end of the year was in the $30 to $50 range.  I said that there was a 27% chance of a price in this range, and a 33% chance of a price less than $50.  This was not an obviously inaccurate prediction.
• The Ottawa Gas Price was 91.5 cents/L at the end of 2015, according to the Ontario Ministry of Energy.  I said there was a 25% chance of a price between 90 and 100 cents per litre, and a 45% chance of a price below 100 cents per litre.  Again, this prediction seems to have been reasonable.

Year-End Post Mortem: Federal Policy

• No E-Commerce Sales Tax has been announced.  I said there was a 25% chance of such a tax, which might have been too high
• No enabling legislation involving a National Securities Regulator has been passed.  I said there was a 75% chance of such legislation, which seems much too high in hindsight.
• No significant changes in Supply Management have been announced.  The changes announced in the context of the TPP don't seem significant enough to count for this question.  I said there was a 10% chance of significant changes, which might have been overconfident.  This is one of those vague questions that I've been trying to move away from.
• No law has been passed eliminating Census Jail Time (i.e. jail time for not completing the Census).  I said there was a 20% chance of such a law.
• Construction has not begun on the Victims of Communism Memorial (see my post Victims of Communism Memorial v2).  I said there was a 35% chance of construction starting.