Q48: What will the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate be at the end of 2015?
0.75% or lower: 70%
1.00%: 10%
1.25%: 10%
1.5%: 5%
1.75% or higher: 5%
In Q9, I predicted the Bank of Canada target rate for the end of 2015. Since then, the bank has decreased the target rate to 0.75%, so I thought I would look at this question again. All of the banks now seem to think the target rate will fall to 0.5% by the end of the year, before increasing in 2016-2017. A end-of-year rate of 0.75% or less certainly seems to be the most likely outcome. However, the bank might end up increasing rates, especially if oil prices increase (or even if they don't). Still, a rate of 1.5% or higher seems quite unlikely.
No comments:
Post a Comment