Tuesday, 17 February 2015

Canada Overnight Rate v2

Q48: What will the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate be at the end of 2015?
0.75% or lower: 70%
1.00%: 10%
1.25%: 10%
1.5%: 5%
1.75% or higher: 5%

In Q9, I predicted the Bank of Canada target rate for the end of 2015.  Since then, the bank has decreased the target rate to 0.75%, so I thought I would look at this question again.  All of the banks now seem to think the target rate will fall to 0.5% by the end of the year, before increasing in 2016-2017.  A end-of-year rate of 0.75% or less certainly seems to be the most likely outcome.  However, the bank might end up increasing rates, especially if oil prices increase (or even if they don't).  Still, a rate of 1.5% or higher seems quite unlikely.

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