Q198: Before the end of 2015, will classes in Ottawa schools be cancelled due to labour action?
Yes: 60%
(This question requires a significant number of schools to stop offering classes; one or two schools would not be sufficient. The length of the cancellation must be at least one day. The schools can be in the public or Catholic English boards, and can be elementary or high schools)
As I noted in my recent post, there is the possibility of an Ottawa teachers' strike if negotiations between the province and the unions do not go well. In the recent round of bargaining,
there have already been teachers' strikes elsewhere in Ontario, and some unions in Ottawa have started work-to-rule campaigns. Given the level of unrest, I think that there probably will be a teachers' strike of some sort in some board in Ottawa, although it may not last very long. The current round of bargaining has been going on for a long time with very little progress.
Friday 31 July 2015
Thursday 30 July 2015
Victims of Communism Memorial v2
Q197: By the end of 2015, will construction commence on the Victims of Communism Memorial?
Yes: 35%
("Construction" should be construed broadly, to include, for example, decontamination. The construction does not need to proceed according to the current proposed design or in the current location)
Since my last post, the NCC has compromised somewhat on the design of the proposed Victims of Communism memorial, but decided to allow construction to begin. Opponents of the memorial have launched a lawsuit, and are seeking to block construction with an injunction (see story here).
At this point, there is not much time left in the summer for construction to start in. As well. whatever the final result of the opponents' lawsuit, an injunction to stop construction seems reasonably likely to succeed. Given that, there will probably be no construction before the end of 2015.
Yes: 35%
("Construction" should be construed broadly, to include, for example, decontamination. The construction does not need to proceed according to the current proposed design or in the current location)
Since my last post, the NCC has compromised somewhat on the design of the proposed Victims of Communism memorial, but decided to allow construction to begin. Opponents of the memorial have launched a lawsuit, and are seeking to block construction with an injunction (see story here).
At this point, there is not much time left in the summer for construction to start in. As well. whatever the final result of the opponents' lawsuit, an injunction to stop construction seems reasonably likely to succeed. Given that, there will probably be no construction before the end of 2015.
Wednesday 29 July 2015
Canada Interest Rate September
Q196: What will be the result of the September 9th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 10%
Unchanged Rate: 85%
Rate Increase: 5%
The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for September 9th. After the somewhat surprising rate cut this month, the expectation seems to be that the interest rate will remain unchanged for the rest of year (see story here). A rate increase just after a rate cut seems rather unlikely, while another rate cut would seem excessive but slightly more likely than a rate increase.
Rate Cut: 10%
Unchanged Rate: 85%
Rate Increase: 5%
The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement is scheduled for September 9th. After the somewhat surprising rate cut this month, the expectation seems to be that the interest rate will remain unchanged for the rest of year (see story here). A rate increase just after a rate cut seems rather unlikely, while another rate cut would seem excessive but slightly more likely than a rate increase.
Tuesday 28 July 2015
Ontario Teachers' Negotiations
Q195: When will a new contract be reached between the Ontario government and the Elementary Teachers Federation?
Before September 8th: 15%
Between September 8th and October 31st: 50%
Between November 1st and December 31st: 15%
Not before the December 31st: 20%
(The contract needs to be accepted by union members to count for the purposes of this question, although the date that counts is the date the contract is reached, not the date it is voted upon)
The Elementary Teachers Federation, which represents public elementary teachers, has not yet reached an agreement with the province after their old one expired (see my previous post here, and more recent story here). Teachers at some boards have been launching work-to-rule campaigns, and a strike is also possible. The province and the union do not have any negotiations scheduled.
My sense is that nothing substantive will happen before classes start in the fall (on September 8th). The union will likely call a strike deadline around that time, and negotiations will begin in earnest. A new contract will probably be reached not long afterwards (possibly averting a strike). However, it is possible that negotiations will drag on through the fall, and that a contract will not be reached until November or December (or possibly even later). It is also possible that a contract will be reached in the summer, although there doesn't seem to be any pressure to reach a contract at this point.
Before September 8th: 15%
Between September 8th and October 31st: 50%
Between November 1st and December 31st: 15%
Not before the December 31st: 20%
(The contract needs to be accepted by union members to count for the purposes of this question, although the date that counts is the date the contract is reached, not the date it is voted upon)
The Elementary Teachers Federation, which represents public elementary teachers, has not yet reached an agreement with the province after their old one expired (see my previous post here, and more recent story here). Teachers at some boards have been launching work-to-rule campaigns, and a strike is also possible. The province and the union do not have any negotiations scheduled.
My sense is that nothing substantive will happen before classes start in the fall (on September 8th). The union will likely call a strike deadline around that time, and negotiations will begin in earnest. A new contract will probably be reached not long afterwards (possibly averting a strike). However, it is possible that negotiations will drag on through the fall, and that a contract will not be reached until November or December (or possibly even later). It is also possible that a contract will be reached in the summer, although there doesn't seem to be any pressure to reach a contract at this point.
Monday 27 July 2015
Ottawa Cleaners Strike
Q194: When will the Ottawa cleaners represented by SEIU Local 2 go on strike?
Before August 15th; 20%
Between August 15th and the end of 2015: 15%
Not before the end of 2015: 65%
(Any sort of significant work stoppage counts for this question, even if it is not described as a strike. If a new contract is announced, the question will close for "Not before the end of 2015")
Ottawa janitors (many of whom work in government buildings as employees of private contractors), have given a strike mandate to their union, SEIU Local 2 (see story here). A strike could begin in the first week of August, although negotiations are scheduled before then.
My default position on this sort of question is that a strike is unlikely. Having said that, the union seems to want a much higher wage ($15 vs the current $11.50 per hour), which is a sign that the negotiating positions of the two parties are still a ways apart. If a strike does happen, I think it will probably start in early August, but it could start later than that.
Before August 15th; 20%
Between August 15th and the end of 2015: 15%
Not before the end of 2015: 65%
(Any sort of significant work stoppage counts for this question, even if it is not described as a strike. If a new contract is announced, the question will close for "Not before the end of 2015")
Ottawa janitors (many of whom work in government buildings as employees of private contractors), have given a strike mandate to their union, SEIU Local 2 (see story here). A strike could begin in the first week of August, although negotiations are scheduled before then.
My default position on this sort of question is that a strike is unlikely. Having said that, the union seems to want a much higher wage ($15 vs the current $11.50 per hour), which is a sign that the negotiating positions of the two parties are still a ways apart. If a strike does happen, I think it will probably start in early August, but it could start later than that.
Sunday 26 July 2015
Writ Date Federal Election v2
Q193: When will the next federal election officially be called?
Before August 15th: 30%
Between August 15th and August 31st: 30%
After September 1st: 40%
(This question refers to the date on which the writ is dropped for the election, not the actual date of the election)
Since my last post, there has been further speculation about the writ date for the upcoming federal election (see, for example, this article). Stephen Harper has cancelled his normal Arctic trip. According to the article, unnamed "Conservative insiders" think the election campaign will officially start around August 8th. Information given to political staffers seems to imply that the campaign will start in mid-August. Harper has not given a firm indication as to when he will call the election. However, given the information available, I think a long campaign is now slightly more likely than not.
Before August 15th: 30%
Between August 15th and August 31st: 30%
After September 1st: 40%
(This question refers to the date on which the writ is dropped for the election, not the actual date of the election)
Since my last post, there has been further speculation about the writ date for the upcoming federal election (see, for example, this article). Stephen Harper has cancelled his normal Arctic trip. According to the article, unnamed "Conservative insiders" think the election campaign will officially start around August 8th. Information given to political staffers seems to imply that the campaign will start in mid-August. Harper has not given a firm indication as to when he will call the election. However, given the information available, I think a long campaign is now slightly more likely than not.
Saturday 25 July 2015
Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal Candidate
Q192: Who will be the Liberal candidate for the federal riding of Eglinton-Lawrence?
Eve Adams: 65%
Marco Mendicino: 35%
The Liberal nomination vote for the riding of Eglinton-Lawrence is scheduled for tomorrow (see story here). Eve Adams, who crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals, is running against Marco Mendicino. It seems to be a fairly close race, although Eve Adams has apparently signed up more members than Mendicino. Eve Adams doesn't seem to have received any official support from Liberal leader Justin Trudeau.
I had previously said that Eve Adams had a 80% chance of winning the Liberal nomination. Given the apparent closeness of the race, I now think that might be a bit too high. She still seems to be more likely to win than Mendicino, given her higher membership numbers.
Eve Adams: 65%
Marco Mendicino: 35%
The Liberal nomination vote for the riding of Eglinton-Lawrence is scheduled for tomorrow (see story here). Eve Adams, who crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals, is running against Marco Mendicino. It seems to be a fairly close race, although Eve Adams has apparently signed up more members than Mendicino. Eve Adams doesn't seem to have received any official support from Liberal leader Justin Trudeau.
I had previously said that Eve Adams had a 80% chance of winning the Liberal nomination. Given the apparent closeness of the race, I now think that might be a bit too high. She still seems to be more likely to win than Mendicino, given her higher membership numbers.
Friday 24 July 2015
Simcoe North By-Election Date
Q191: Before the end of 2015, will a by-election be held in Simcoe North?
Yes: 65%
Patrick Brown, the Ontario PC leader, is planning to run in a by-election in Simcoe North, where the local MPP stepped down to allow him to have a seat. Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has said that she will call a by-election after the October 19th federal election, although Brown asked for an earlier by-election (see story here). The delay may or may not push the by-election past the end of 2015. The by-election is unlikely to be held in the second half of December, given the Christmas holidays, and there may not be enough time to hold it before then. However, given the pressure from Brown, I think that a by-election will indeed be held relatively quickly.
Yes: 65%
Patrick Brown, the Ontario PC leader, is planning to run in a by-election in Simcoe North, where the local MPP stepped down to allow him to have a seat. Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has said that she will call a by-election after the October 19th federal election, although Brown asked for an earlier by-election (see story here). The delay may or may not push the by-election past the end of 2015. The by-election is unlikely to be held in the second half of December, given the Christmas holidays, and there may not be enough time to hold it before then. However, given the pressure from Brown, I think that a by-election will indeed be held relatively quickly.
Thursday 23 July 2015
Uber IPO
Q190: When will Uber hold an IPO?
Before the end of 2015: 15%
In 2016: 40%
Not before the end of 2016: 45%
(The IPO must actually take place; an announcement of an upcoming IPO is not sufficient for this question)
There have been rumours that Uber might hold an IPO in the near future (see article here). As far as I can tell, there have been no definite announcement about Uber's IPO plans.
My general impression is that it is quite possible that Uber will hold an IPO in 2016, but it is probably too late to hold an IPO in 2015. It is also quite possible that Uber will not hold an IPO at all before the end of 2016, especially if it or the broader IPO market experience problems.
Before the end of 2015: 15%
In 2016: 40%
Not before the end of 2016: 45%
(The IPO must actually take place; an announcement of an upcoming IPO is not sufficient for this question)
There have been rumours that Uber might hold an IPO in the near future (see article here). As far as I can tell, there have been no definite announcement about Uber's IPO plans.
My general impression is that it is quite possible that Uber will hold an IPO in 2016, but it is probably too late to hold an IPO in 2015. It is also quite possible that Uber will not hold an IPO at all before the end of 2016, especially if it or the broader IPO market experience problems.
Wednesday 22 July 2015
C-51 Charter Challenge
Q189: Will the Ontario Superior Court find Bill C-51 unconstitutional?
Yes: 60%
(Rulings on further appeals are irrelevant.)
A court challenge has been launched, in Ontario Superior Court, against Bill C-51, also known as the Anti-Terrorism Act (see story here). The challenge claims that Bill C-51 violates the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
I can't find any speculation about how likely this challenge is to succeed. However, given the controversial nature of Bill C-51, I think the challenge is more likely to succeed than not.
Yes: 60%
(Rulings on further appeals are irrelevant.)
A court challenge has been launched, in Ontario Superior Court, against Bill C-51, also known as the Anti-Terrorism Act (see story here). The challenge claims that Bill C-51 violates the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
I can't find any speculation about how likely this challenge is to succeed. However, given the controversial nature of Bill C-51, I think the challenge is more likely to succeed than not.
Tuesday 21 July 2015
Stittsville High School
Q188: Before the end of 2016, will the construction of a new public English high school in or near Stittsville be officially announced?
Yes: 25%
(A somewhat tentative or conditional announcement is acceptable.)
Stittsville, a western Ottawa suburb, currently has no public high school. There has been lobbying by parents there to build one (see article here). The public board had a new high school for Stittsville on its list of priorities since 2006.
This sort of thing often happens very slowly. Given that, I think there will probably be no announcement in the next year and a half. In the longer term, Stittsville probably will get a new high school, as it seems to be rather under-served.
Yes: 25%
(A somewhat tentative or conditional announcement is acceptable.)
Stittsville, a western Ottawa suburb, currently has no public high school. There has been lobbying by parents there to build one (see article here). The public board had a new high school for Stittsville on its list of priorities since 2006.
This sort of thing often happens very slowly. Given that, I think there will probably be no announcement in the next year and a half. In the longer term, Stittsville probably will get a new high school, as it seems to be rather under-served.
Monday 20 July 2015
Mother Canada Federal Funding
Q187: Before the end of 2016, will the Never Forgotten National Memorial Foundation receive additional federal funding?
Yes: 30%
The Never Forgotten National Memorial Foundation, which wants to build the controversial Mother Canada memorial, has applied for additional federal funding to do so (see story here). It is not clear if they will be successful or not, although their chances of success are probably higher with a Conservative government than a Liberal or NDP government. I think that they probably will not be successful, but they may succeed in winning a relatively small amount of federal funding.
Yes: 30%
The Never Forgotten National Memorial Foundation, which wants to build the controversial Mother Canada memorial, has applied for additional federal funding to do so (see story here). It is not clear if they will be successful or not, although their chances of success are probably higher with a Conservative government than a Liberal or NDP government. I think that they probably will not be successful, but they may succeed in winning a relatively small amount of federal funding.
Sunday 19 July 2015
Canada Savings Bonds
Q186: Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it is planning to end the Canada Savings Bonds program?
Yes: 5%
(A change in the program that substantially reduces its size and scope would also count)
A recent KPMG report recommended ending the Canada Savings Bond (CSB) program, because it is an uneconomic way for the government to raise money (see story here). The government has indicated it has no plans to end the program, and I can find no evidence that the Liberals or NDP would end it either. The program has existed since 1946.
Given the great longevity of the CSB program, I think that it is very unlikely that it will end in the next year and a half. None of the major parties seem to support ending the program, and doing so would probably be politically unpopular. A similar recommendation in 2004 to end the program was ignored.
Yes: 5%
(A change in the program that substantially reduces its size and scope would also count)
A recent KPMG report recommended ending the Canada Savings Bond (CSB) program, because it is an uneconomic way for the government to raise money (see story here). The government has indicated it has no plans to end the program, and I can find no evidence that the Liberals or NDP would end it either. The program has existed since 1946.
Given the great longevity of the CSB program, I think that it is very unlikely that it will end in the next year and a half. None of the major parties seem to support ending the program, and doing so would probably be politically unpopular. A similar recommendation in 2004 to end the program was ignored.
Saturday 18 July 2015
Venezuelan Election Result
Q185: What party will win the most seats in the next Venezuelan parliamentary election?
PSUV: 25%
MUD: 70%
Some Other Party: 5%
(If no election is held before the end of 2016, then this question will be void.)
The next Venezuelan parliamentary election has been scheduled for December 6th (see my previous post here, and story here). According to most opinion polls, the opposition party MUD is leading the government party PSUV by a considerable margin (see Wikipedia article here). Given the state of Venezuelan democracy, it is by no means certain that this apparent edge in support will actually translate into more seats in the next election. However, it certainly seems more likely that MUD will win than the current governing party. It is also possible that some third party could win the election, but I can find no credible sign of such a party at this point.
PSUV: 25%
MUD: 70%
Some Other Party: 5%
(If no election is held before the end of 2016, then this question will be void.)
The next Venezuelan parliamentary election has been scheduled for December 6th (see my previous post here, and story here). According to most opinion polls, the opposition party MUD is leading the government party PSUV by a considerable margin (see Wikipedia article here). Given the state of Venezuelan democracy, it is by no means certain that this apparent edge in support will actually translate into more seats in the next election. However, it certainly seems more likely that MUD will win than the current governing party. It is also possible that some third party could win the election, but I can find no credible sign of such a party at this point.
Friday 17 July 2015
Las Vegas NHL
Q184: Before the end of 2016, will the NHL officially announce that it is granting a franchise to Las Vegas?
Yes: 60%
(Both an expansion franchise and a relocated franchise count)
Along with Quebec City (see my previous post, which I may update), there has some speculation that the NHL may grant a franchise to Las Vegas (see article here). Since my last post, the NHL has announced that it is entertaining the idea of expansion franchises, which makes a Vegas team in the near future more likely. The Arizona Coyote franchise might also relocate to Vegas, although the NHL has denied this (see story here). Las Vegas is building a new arena, and seems to have had some success in soliciting fan interest. According to a recent National Post article, there is a 98% chance of Vegas getting an expansion team.
I think that a Las Vegas team is very possible, but far from a sure thing. Southern US teams have not done so well financially in recent years. The NHL may not want a team in Vegas because of the gambling connection. The NHL may choose not to expand at all, for financial or other reasons.
Yes: 60%
(Both an expansion franchise and a relocated franchise count)
Along with Quebec City (see my previous post, which I may update), there has some speculation that the NHL may grant a franchise to Las Vegas (see article here). Since my last post, the NHL has announced that it is entertaining the idea of expansion franchises, which makes a Vegas team in the near future more likely. The Arizona Coyote franchise might also relocate to Vegas, although the NHL has denied this (see story here). Las Vegas is building a new arena, and seems to have had some success in soliciting fan interest. According to a recent National Post article, there is a 98% chance of Vegas getting an expansion team.
I think that a Las Vegas team is very possible, but far from a sure thing. Southern US teams have not done so well financially in recent years. The NHL may not want a team in Vegas because of the gambling connection. The NHL may choose not to expand at all, for financial or other reasons.
Thursday 16 July 2015
Toronto Ranked Ballots
Q183: Before the end of 2016, will the City of Toronto decide to use ranked ballots in future municipal elections?
Yes: 25%
(A vote by city council counts as a decision, even if it is later reversed. The partial use of ranked ballots counts. This question will be resolved similarly to my previous question about Ottawa ranked ballots)
The Ontario government is currently preparing legislation that would allow cities to use ranked ballots for municipal elections. Toronto mayor John Tory has indicated that he will support ranked ballots for that city (see article here). Given that support, I think that ranked ballots are significantly more likely to be adopted in Toronto than in Ottawa. However, the time-frame of the question may be too short for adoption to take place.
Yes: 25%
(A vote by city council counts as a decision, even if it is later reversed. The partial use of ranked ballots counts. This question will be resolved similarly to my previous question about Ottawa ranked ballots)
The Ontario government is currently preparing legislation that would allow cities to use ranked ballots for municipal elections. Toronto mayor John Tory has indicated that he will support ranked ballots for that city (see article here). Given that support, I think that ranked ballots are significantly more likely to be adopted in Toronto than in Ottawa. However, the time-frame of the question may be too short for adoption to take place.
Wednesday 15 July 2015
US Congress Iran Deal
Q182: What will the US Congress do with regards to the recently reached Iran nuclear deal?
Approve It; 10%
Do Nothing: 25%
Reject It, but not override the Presidential Veto: 45%
Reject It, and override the Presidential Veto: 20%
(The first action shall be the one that resolves this question)
The P5+1 recently reached a deal with Iran regarding that country's nuclear program. Congress now has to decide whether to approve the deal or not. Under the terms of previously passed legislation, to effectively override the deal, Congress would need a 2/3 majority to override the presidential veto (see story here and here). However, Congress could still choose to reject the deal to make a statement. Republicans seem to be generally opposed to the deal, while Democrats are generally supportive.
From reading the news coverage, it sounds like the most likely outcome is that the deal will be rejected, but the Republicans will not have enough votes to override the presidential veto. However, it seems to me possible that Congress will do nothing (because of different levels of support in the House and Senate) or even approve the deal (although this wouldn't seem to be in the Republicans' interest).
Approve It; 10%
Do Nothing: 25%
Reject It, but not override the Presidential Veto: 45%
Reject It, and override the Presidential Veto: 20%
(The first action shall be the one that resolves this question)
The P5+1 recently reached a deal with Iran regarding that country's nuclear program. Congress now has to decide whether to approve the deal or not. Under the terms of previously passed legislation, to effectively override the deal, Congress would need a 2/3 majority to override the presidential veto (see story here and here). However, Congress could still choose to reject the deal to make a statement. Republicans seem to be generally opposed to the deal, while Democrats are generally supportive.
From reading the news coverage, it sounds like the most likely outcome is that the deal will be rejected, but the Republicans will not have enough votes to override the presidential veto. However, it seems to me possible that Congress will do nothing (because of different levels of support in the House and Senate) or even approve the deal (although this wouldn't seem to be in the Republicans' interest).
Tuesday 14 July 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada
Q181: By the end of 2015, will Canada successfully conclude negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership?
Yes: 20%
(This question is the same as yesterday's question, except that it requires that Canada be part of the proposed deal. At least one other country also has to be part of the deal)
There has been some speculation that Canada will not be included in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, because of Canadian unwillingness to negotiate on agricultural subsidies (see article here). In an election year, the Conservatives may be less willing to make significant concessions. As I said in yesterday's post, I don't think negotiations on the TPP will be concluded this year anyway. However, if they are completed, Canada probably will be included.
Yes: 20%
(This question is the same as yesterday's question, except that it requires that Canada be part of the proposed deal. At least one other country also has to be part of the deal)
There has been some speculation that Canada will not be included in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, because of Canadian unwillingness to negotiate on agricultural subsidies (see article here). In an election year, the Conservatives may be less willing to make significant concessions. As I said in yesterday's post, I don't think negotiations on the TPP will be concluded this year anyway. However, if they are completed, Canada probably will be included.
Monday 13 July 2015
Trans-Pacific Partnership
Q180: When will negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership successfully conclude?
Before the end of August: 20%
Between September 1st and December 31st: 15%
Not before the end of 2015: 65%
(To successfully conclude, the proposed deal needs to include at least the US and Japan. Canada does not need to be included.)
Negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed trade deal involving the US, Japan, Australia, Canada, and 8 other countries, are continuing. The next meeting is scheduled for late July (see article here). The US Congress recently granted Obama fast-track trade authority, which is seen as making an agreement more likely. Negotiations have been going on since 2010.
I think that a deal may be reached before the end of the year, but it is less likely than not. There still seem to be a lot of unresolved issues, and negotiations of this type can continue for a long time. Having said that, it sounds like a deal will be reached relatively soon if one is reached at all.
Before the end of August: 20%
Between September 1st and December 31st: 15%
Not before the end of 2015: 65%
(To successfully conclude, the proposed deal needs to include at least the US and Japan. Canada does not need to be included.)
Negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a proposed trade deal involving the US, Japan, Australia, Canada, and 8 other countries, are continuing. The next meeting is scheduled for late July (see article here). The US Congress recently granted Obama fast-track trade authority, which is seen as making an agreement more likely. Negotiations have been going on since 2010.
I think that a deal may be reached before the end of the year, but it is less likely than not. There still seem to be a lot of unresolved issues, and negotiations of this type can continue for a long time. Having said that, it sounds like a deal will be reached relatively soon if one is reached at all.
Sunday 12 July 2015
Next PM
Q179: To which party will the Prime Minister belong to after the next federal election?
Conservative: 40%
NDP: 40%
Liberal: 20%
(The first Prime Minister who forms a government will count for the purposes of this question, even if that Prime Minister quickly loses the confidence of the House and is replaced by a longer-serving Prime Minister)
Since my last federal election projection, the NDP have continued to do well, and are now leading in the polls with around 32% of the vote. The Conservatives have around 30%, while the Liberals are at about 27%. www.threehundredeight.com now projects the NDP to win the most seats.
I would estimate that the NDP have about a 40% chance of winning the most seats, the Conservatives a 35% chance, and the Liberals a 25% chance. However, the Conservatives might have a slightly better chance than that of forming the next government, because the Governor General might ask them to form the government in the case of a weak NDP (or Liberal) plurality (there is a bit of a bias towards the status quo in these sorts of cases). On the other hand, the NDP and Liberals may form a governing coalition in the event of a weak Conservative plurality, but this would probably not be the first government formed. Given these possibilities, I am increasing my odds for the Conservatives slightly.
Conservative: 40%
NDP: 40%
Liberal: 20%
(The first Prime Minister who forms a government will count for the purposes of this question, even if that Prime Minister quickly loses the confidence of the House and is replaced by a longer-serving Prime Minister)
Since my last federal election projection, the NDP have continued to do well, and are now leading in the polls with around 32% of the vote. The Conservatives have around 30%, while the Liberals are at about 27%. www.threehundredeight.com now projects the NDP to win the most seats.
I would estimate that the NDP have about a 40% chance of winning the most seats, the Conservatives a 35% chance, and the Liberals a 25% chance. However, the Conservatives might have a slightly better chance than that of forming the next government, because the Governor General might ask them to form the government in the case of a weak NDP (or Liberal) plurality (there is a bit of a bias towards the status quo in these sorts of cases). On the other hand, the NDP and Liberals may form a governing coalition in the event of a weak Conservative plurality, but this would probably not be the first government formed. Given these possibilities, I am increasing my odds for the Conservatives slightly.
Saturday 11 July 2015
M3MSat Launch
Q178: By the end of 2016, will the M3MSat Satellite be successfully launched?
Yes: 70%
The M3MSat, a Canadian naval surveillance satellite, was originally supposed to be launched in 2014. However, the launch was delayed because the Canadian government didn't want to use a Russian rocket, because of the situation in Ukraine (see article here). The satellite is now supposed to be launched by the Indian space agency sometime in 2016.
I think that the satellite probably will be launched according to the revised schedule. However, it is possible that the launch will be further delayed or will fail entirely.
Yes: 70%
The M3MSat, a Canadian naval surveillance satellite, was originally supposed to be launched in 2014. However, the launch was delayed because the Canadian government didn't want to use a Russian rocket, because of the situation in Ukraine (see article here). The satellite is now supposed to be launched by the Indian space agency sometime in 2016.
I think that the satellite probably will be launched according to the revised schedule. However, it is possible that the launch will be further delayed or will fail entirely.
Friday 10 July 2015
Hamilton Mailbox Appeal
Q177: Will the City of Hamilton succeed in its appeal of the Ontario Superior Court decision regarding Canada Post community mailboxes?
Yes: 20%
(If the City is not granted leave to appeal, or drops the appeal, the answer will resolve as "no")
The City of Hamilton recently lost a decision regarding a by-law it had passed to control the locations of community mailboxes (see article here). It has decided to appeal the decision (see article here). From the articles, I have the strong sense that the appeal is not expected to be successful, and is being undertaken more for political reasons. It seems to have lost the original decision in a fairly convincing manner.
Yes: 20%
(If the City is not granted leave to appeal, or drops the appeal, the answer will resolve as "no")
The City of Hamilton recently lost a decision regarding a by-law it had passed to control the locations of community mailboxes (see article here). It has decided to appeal the decision (see article here). From the articles, I have the strong sense that the appeal is not expected to be successful, and is being undertaken more for political reasons. It seems to have lost the original decision in a fairly convincing manner.
Thursday 9 July 2015
Federal Electoral Changes
Q176: Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it is seeking to make changes to the way MPs are elected?
Yes: 50%
(Introduction of a law, mention in a throne speech, or forming an electoral changes committee are all examples of actions that would count for the purposes of this question. Informal comments by ministers would not count, nor would political promises made before the election)
The Liberals and NDP have both promised to change the current first-past-the-post system if they win the next election (see articles here and here). The Conservatives have not done so. I think that the Liberals or NDP probably will take some sort of action to trigger this question if they are elected, and might even force the Conservatives to do so in a Conservative minority government situation.
Yes: 50%
(Introduction of a law, mention in a throne speech, or forming an electoral changes committee are all examples of actions that would count for the purposes of this question. Informal comments by ministers would not count, nor would political promises made before the election)
The Liberals and NDP have both promised to change the current first-past-the-post system if they win the next election (see articles here and here). The Conservatives have not done so. I think that the Liberals or NDP probably will take some sort of action to trigger this question if they are elected, and might even force the Conservatives to do so in a Conservative minority government situation.
Wednesday 8 July 2015
Ottawa Central Library
Q175: Before the end of 2016, will Ottawa City Council approve the construction of a new central library?
Yes: 35%
(Not all details of the new library need to be worked out.)
The City of Ottawa is currently considering whether to build a new central library or refurbish the existing one (see story here). According to the current timeline, the city could "approve the results of a request for proposal toward the end of 2016". I think that approval for a new library may take more time than that; the idea of a new library has been around for a long time, and plans for a new one still seem to be in the early stages.
Yes: 35%
(Not all details of the new library need to be worked out.)
The City of Ottawa is currently considering whether to build a new central library or refurbish the existing one (see story here). According to the current timeline, the city could "approve the results of a request for proposal toward the end of 2016". I think that approval for a new library may take more time than that; the idea of a new library has been around for a long time, and plans for a new one still seem to be in the early stages.
Tuesday 7 July 2015
Spanish PM
Q174: To which party will the next Spanish Prime Minister belong?
People's Party (PP): 30%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 50%
Podemos: 15%
Some Other Party: 5%
("Next Prime Minister" means "Prime Minister after the next election")
Because of the potential for coalition governments in Spain, the party with the most seats (which I have predicted here) might not be the party that forms the government. In particular, the current polls seem to suggest that the next government might be a PSOE-Podemos coalition, as happened in many Spanish municipalities after the last municipal elections (see article here). Spain does not seem have a tradition of coalition governments like many other European countries. According to iPredict, there is only a 20% chance of a People's Party government, while there is a 73% chance of a PSOE government.
I think that a Podemos-government is a real possibility, and is very likely if they win the most seats. A People's Party government is also quite possible (more than 20%). Still, the most likely outcome seems to be PSOE-led government.
People's Party (PP): 30%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 50%
Podemos: 15%
Some Other Party: 5%
("Next Prime Minister" means "Prime Minister after the next election")
Because of the potential for coalition governments in Spain, the party with the most seats (which I have predicted here) might not be the party that forms the government. In particular, the current polls seem to suggest that the next government might be a PSOE-Podemos coalition, as happened in many Spanish municipalities after the last municipal elections (see article here). Spain does not seem have a tradition of coalition governments like many other European countries. According to iPredict, there is only a 20% chance of a People's Party government, while there is a 73% chance of a PSOE government.
I think that a Podemos-government is a real possibility, and is very likely if they win the most seats. A People's Party government is also quite possible (more than 20%). Still, the most likely outcome seems to be PSOE-led government.
Monday 6 July 2015
Canada Interest Rate July
Q173: What will be the result of the July 15th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 25%
Unchanged Rate: 65%
Rate Increase: 10%
As with many Bank of Canada interest rate announcements, there has been considerable speculation about the July 15th decision (see article here). Most economists seem to expect an unchanged rate, although a significant minority (25% or so) expect a cut. A rate increase is also possible, if unlikely.
My sense is that the rate will probably stay unchanged, but it could also be cut. An unchanged rate is very much the default option, and I have the sense that some economists might tend to overestimate the chances of an interest rate cut.
Rate Cut: 25%
Unchanged Rate: 65%
Rate Increase: 10%
As with many Bank of Canada interest rate announcements, there has been considerable speculation about the July 15th decision (see article here). Most economists seem to expect an unchanged rate, although a significant minority (25% or so) expect a cut. A rate increase is also possible, if unlikely.
My sense is that the rate will probably stay unchanged, but it could also be cut. An unchanged rate is very much the default option, and I have the sense that some economists might tend to overestimate the chances of an interest rate cut.
Sunday 5 July 2015
Scicast Re-Opening
Q172: Before the end of 2015, will SciCast Predict re-open?
Yes: 60%
(SciCast must reopen as an active platform, not just a data repository. Substantial changes in the platform are acceptable, as long as it remains a freely accessible science and technology forecasting site)
SciCast Predict, the science and technology forecasting platform, has gone on "hiatus" after losing funding from its major sponsor, IARPA (see post here). They seem to be in discussions with a new sponsor, and hope (and expect) to restart in the fall.
I think that SciCast probably will re-open, but this is far from a sure thing. In this sort of situation, organizations often have a bit of an optimistic bias (the canonical example is a restaurant "closed for renovations"). Their last post does have a bit wrap-up feel to it that is not entirely consistent with a temporary closure of the site.
Yes: 60%
(SciCast must reopen as an active platform, not just a data repository. Substantial changes in the platform are acceptable, as long as it remains a freely accessible science and technology forecasting site)
SciCast Predict, the science and technology forecasting platform, has gone on "hiatus" after losing funding from its major sponsor, IARPA (see post here). They seem to be in discussions with a new sponsor, and hope (and expect) to restart in the fall.
I think that SciCast probably will re-open, but this is far from a sure thing. In this sort of situation, organizations often have a bit of an optimistic bias (the canonical example is a restaurant "closed for renovations"). Their last post does have a bit wrap-up feel to it that is not entirely consistent with a temporary closure of the site.
Saturday 4 July 2015
Senate Appointments
Q171: Before the next federal government is sworn in, will the current Senate vacancies be filled?
Yes: 30%
(In order for this question to resolve, there must be fewer than 5 Senate vacancies when the next federal government is sworn in)
There are currently 20 vacancies in the 105-seat Senate. Prime Minister Steven Harper has not been appointing senators since March 2013, because of the Senate expenses scandal (see article here). There is currently a Federal Court case trying to force Harper to fill the vacancies. Harper has some history of not appointing senators. He only appointed two Senators in the first three years of his government, before appointing a large number in 2009 due to the threat of the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition (see story here).
I think that Harper may well fill any outstanding vacancies if he is not re-elected in the next election (if he is re-elected, the vacancies will probably remain unfilled). My understanding is that this could be done after the election but before the new government is sworn in. This will depend on the post-election situation however, and would be politically unpopular. Harper might also be forced to fill the vacancies by the result of the Federal Court case.
Yes: 30%
(In order for this question to resolve, there must be fewer than 5 Senate vacancies when the next federal government is sworn in)
There are currently 20 vacancies in the 105-seat Senate. Prime Minister Steven Harper has not been appointing senators since March 2013, because of the Senate expenses scandal (see article here). There is currently a Federal Court case trying to force Harper to fill the vacancies. Harper has some history of not appointing senators. He only appointed two Senators in the first three years of his government, before appointing a large number in 2009 due to the threat of the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition (see story here).
I think that Harper may well fill any outstanding vacancies if he is not re-elected in the next election (if he is re-elected, the vacancies will probably remain unfilled). My understanding is that this could be done after the election but before the new government is sworn in. This will depend on the post-election situation however, and would be politically unpopular. Harper might also be forced to fill the vacancies by the result of the Federal Court case.
Friday 3 July 2015
Federal Email
Q170: By the end of September 2016, will the new federal government email system be completed?
Yes: 30%
(Substantial completion is what counts; there can be a few departments not using the system, or a few features not yet released.)
The federal government is currently in the process of merging the email systems of most of its departments into a single unified system (see article here). The original scheduled completion date was March 2015, but that has been pushed back to September 2016. I think that further delays are very likely; this sort of complicated project often takes much longer than originally planned, and the delays that have already happened are not a good sign.
Yes: 30%
(Substantial completion is what counts; there can be a few departments not using the system, or a few features not yet released.)
The federal government is currently in the process of merging the email systems of most of its departments into a single unified system (see article here). The original scheduled completion date was March 2015, but that has been pushed back to September 2016. I think that further delays are very likely; this sort of complicated project often takes much longer than originally planned, and the delays that have already happened are not a good sign.
Thursday 2 July 2015
Portuguese Election v2
Q170: What party will win the most seats in the next Portuguese election?
Portugal Ahead: 40%
Socialist Party: 55%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the Portugal Ahead alliance fragments, then the question will resolve for them if either of the fragments wins the most seats. Similarly, a win for Portugal Ahead would count for a win for the Social Democrats for the purposes of my last post)
Since my last post about the Portuguese election, there have been some further developments. The two main right-wing parties, the Social Democratic Party and the People's Party, have formed an alliance known as Portugal Ahead. The Socialists now have about 37% of the vote, while Portugal Ahead has about 35% of the vote. I am decreasing my odds for the Socialists, and increasing them for everyone else.
Portugal Ahead: 40%
Socialist Party: 55%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the Portugal Ahead alliance fragments, then the question will resolve for them if either of the fragments wins the most seats. Similarly, a win for Portugal Ahead would count for a win for the Social Democrats for the purposes of my last post)
Since my last post about the Portuguese election, there have been some further developments. The two main right-wing parties, the Social Democratic Party and the People's Party, have formed an alliance known as Portugal Ahead. The Socialists now have about 37% of the vote, while Portugal Ahead has about 35% of the vote. I am decreasing my odds for the Socialists, and increasing them for everyone else.
Wednesday 1 July 2015
Questions Resolved in June
A fair amount happened in June:
- Q35 (Income-Splitting) has resolved for yes, as the budget received royal assent this month. I said this had a 95% chance of happening. This was a silly question, because there wasn't enough uncertainty; income-splitting had already been approved by the time I created the question.
- Q53 (OPP October 22 Report Release) has resolved for yes, as the OPP report on the October 22nd shooting was released this month. I said that this had a 27% chance of happening, and seemed to think it would happen after the election. The government had previously indicated that this report would not be released, and I probably took that promise too seriously.
- Q61 (Turkish Election) has resolved for "Less than 276", as the AKP failed to get a parliamentary majority of 276 seats in the election. I said this had a 15% chance of happening. That estimate may have been a bit low, although the poor result for the AKP seems to have been genuinely surprising.
- Q73 (Danish Election) has resolved for the Social Democrats. I said this had a 35% chance of happening, which seems about right.
- Q74 (Victims of Communism Memorial) has resolved for no. The NCC has decided to make substantial changes in the design of the memorial, so it won't be constructed according to the original design by the end of 2015. I said this had a 40% chance of happening, which might have been too low. This question would have been better if there had been a third option like "Construction according to a different plan" (which is what will probably happen).
- Q90 (SC Medical Marijuana) has resolved for yes, as the Supreme Court has overturned the federal ban on medical marijuana in non-dried form. I said this had a 60% chance of happening. This might have been a bit too low; the Supreme Court has overturned federal laws in all 3 of the decisions that have resolved so far on this blog.
- Q102 (Israel Coalition Partner) has resolved for no, as the latest Israeli government does not include the Zionist Union Party. This actually happened in May, but I missed it then. I said this had a 85% chance of happening, which seems about right.
- Q143 (Molycorp Bankruptcy Protection) has resolved for yes, as Molycorp has indeed declared bankruptcy. I said this had a 70% chance of happening.
- Q147 (New York Escapee Apprehension) has resolved for "Between June 13th and June 30th", as both escapees have been apprehended. I said this had a 20% chance of happening (there were 3 bins, and this was the middle bin). I am somewhat surprised that it took so long for the prisoners to be apprehended, and will adjust my odds in the future accordingly.
- Q152 (Tal Abyad Capture) has resolved for "Before June 20th", as the IS lost control of Tal Abyad shortly after this question was written. I said this had a 35% chance of happening (with 3 bins), which seems roughly accurate.
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