Writ Date Federal Election v2

Q193: When will the next federal election officially be called?
Before August 15th: 30%
Between August 15th and August 31st: 30%
After September 1st: 40%
(This question refers to the date on which the writ is dropped for the election, not the actual date of the election)

Since my last post, there has been further speculation about the writ date for the upcoming federal election (see, for example, this article).  Stephen Harper has cancelled his normal Arctic trip. According to the article, unnamed "Conservative insiders" think the election campaign will officially start around August 8th.  Information given to political staffers seems to imply that the campaign will start in mid-August.  Harper has not given a firm indication as to when he will call the election.  However, given the information available, I think a long campaign is now slightly more likely than not.