Q173: What will be the result of the July 15th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 25%
Unchanged Rate: 65%
Rate Increase: 10%
As with many Bank of Canada interest rate announcements, there has been considerable speculation about the July 15th decision (see article here). Most economists seem to expect an unchanged rate, although a significant minority (25% or so) expect a cut. A rate increase is also possible, if unlikely.
My sense is that the rate will probably stay unchanged, but it could also be cut. An unchanged rate is very much the default option, and I have the sense that some economists might tend to overestimate the chances of an interest rate cut.
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