Federal Email v2

By the end of August 2017, will the new federal government email system be completed?
Yes: 60%
(Substantial completion is what counts; there can be a few departments not using the system, or a few features not yet released.)

Since my last post, there have been further delays in the roll-out of the new federal government email system (see article here).  However, progress seems to have been made, and it seems more likely than not that the roll-out will be complete by the end of next August.

Second Brexit Referendum

Before the end of August 2017, will another referendum be announced on the UK leaving the EU?
Yes: 15%

There has been some speculation that another Brexit referendum might be held, likely after negotiations have led to some new deal (see article here).  My sense is that this is possible, but unlikely, especially in the short time frame of this question.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 50%

Since my last post, more support has been expressed for supervised injection sites (see article here).  I am thus increasing my forecast.  However, the timeline for this question is still fairly tight.

Interest Rate July

What will be the result of the July 13th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 6%
Unchanged Rate: 91%
Rate Increase: 3%

After leaving rates unchanged in May, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged in July as well (see article here).  I tend to think a rate change is very unlikely, but a rate cut is more likely than a rate increase, given the fire in Fort McMurray.

Trans Mountain Pipeline

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal government approve the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion?
Yes: 65%

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was recently approved by the NEB (see article here). The federal government must now make a decision.  From this article, it sounds like the government has not yet made a decision.  I tend to think that it is slightly more likely than not that the government will approve the pipeline, given the NEB approval and the government's statements.

CPP Expansion Agreement v2

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 50%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Another federal-provincial meeting is taking place on Monday regarding CPP expansion (see article here).  There seems to be more support for expansion than I noted in my previous post, with the BC premier now clearly supporting it.  I am thus increasing my odds of an agreement eventually being reached.

Canada Post Strike

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 40%
(If a new contract is ratified, this question will immediately close on No)

Contract negotiations are currently going on between Canada Post and its union, CUPW (see article here).  Canada Post has warned some customers of a "potential work stoppage" in early July, and some union officials have also indicated that a strike or lockout is imminent.  The last contract negotiations (in 2011) resulted in a 3-week strike.

The base rate of strikes is rather low, but the history in this case suggests a strike is more likely.  As well, both parties seem to be signalling that a strike is likely, although this is partly for show.  I am going with a fairly neutral forecast.

Assisted Suicide Law v4

When will a federal law regulating assisted suicide be passed?
Before the end of June: 40%
Between July 1st and December 31st: 30%
Not before the end of 2016: 30%

The June 6th deadline to pass a law regarding assisted suicide has been missed (see articles here and here).  The law has already been passed in the House of Commons, but the Senate has amended it, so the new version will have to be passed again.  The timeline seems to be "weeks".  It seems to me quite possible that a new law will take longer than that, and it is possible that no law will be passed at all in 2016.

Super Hornet Purchase

Before the end of August 2017, will the federal government officially announce that it will purchase Boeing Super Hornet fighters?
Yes: 55%
(The purchase itself does not need to take place by the end of August 2017.  Beginning a process that later leads to the purchase does not count.)

The federal government is currently considering purchasing several Boeing Super Hornet fighters, as a replacement for the current C-18 fighters (see articles here and here).  There is some controversy because the government is allegedly planning to sole-source the fighters, as opposed to holding an open competition.  The government has not yet officially made a decision, but one seems to be expected soon.  Given how slowly this issue moves, I am still less than confident that an official announcement will be made in the next year.

Sinkhole LRT Cause

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa officially state that LRT construction was responsible for the recent Rideau Street sinkhole?
Yes: 25%
(If the city officially rules out LRT construction, that counts as a No.  "Partial responsibility" counts)

There has been some speculation that the Rideau Street sinkhole was caused by LRT construction (see articles here and here).  The cause has not yet been determined, but LRT construction was going on in the area.  Officials have said LRT construction is unlikely to be the cause, but it has not been ruled out.

Rideau Street Re-opening

When will Rideau Street re-open to buses?
Before June 16th: 25%
Between June 16th and June 22nd: 40%
After June 22nd: 35%
(Re-opening to buses in a single direction counts)

Rideau Street was closed yesterday due to a sinkhole (see article here).  It is expected to open again in "one to two weeks".  I tend to think a later opening is more likely than an earlier one.

TPP Compensation

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government announce at least $2 billion in compensation to farmers for the TPP or CETA?
Yes: 40%
("Compensation to farmers" includes compensation to food processors, etc.)

The previous federal government announced that it would provide $4.3 billion in compensation for the TPP and CETA trade deals (see story here).  The current government has not indicated if it will ratify the TPP or what compensation will be provided.  I tend to think that the current government will eventually ratify the TPP and provide compensation, but it might not happen in the time period of this question, and it might be less than $2 billion.

Post-Mortem: Ottawa Politics

• Ottawa City Council voted to legalise ride-sharing services (see my posts Ride-Sharing Legalization and Ottawa Taxi Reform).  Last May, I said there was a 25% chance of the city or the province passing a law to legalise ride-sharing services by the end of 2016.  That may have been too low, given that the city was conducting a taxi review at the time.  After the City of Ottawa community and protective services committee approved a ride-sharing bylaw, I said there was an 80% chance the by-law would be passed by City Council, which seems reasonable.
• The Rendez Vous LeBreton proposal (which has the explicit cooperation of the Ottawa Senators)  has been selected by the NCC (see my posts Senators Lebreton Flats and Lebreton Flats Redevelopment).  Last January, I said there was a 25% chance of the proposal with Senators involvement being chosen, which may have been slightly too low (although there rumours of 4 or more proposals at that time).  Last December, I said there was a 50% chance of the  Rendez Vous LeBreton proposal being selected.  Overall, the process was smoother than I expected.
• The Rideau Carleton Raceway lockout has ended (see my post OLG Lockout v2).  I said there was a 25% chance it would end in May or June, and a 60% chance it would end before the end of June.  The timing is thus about what I expected.

Post-Mortem: Business

• The Charter Time Warner Merger has completed.  Last May, I said there was a 30% chance the deal would complete.  At that point, there was still substantial uncertainty over whether the deal would go through.  Still, a 50% estimate (based on market movements) might have been better than a 30% estimate.
• Staples and Office Depot abandoned their merger, after US regulatory opposition (see my post Staples Merger Case).  Last December, I said there was a 75% chance that the merger would be abandoned.
• The LCBO waterfront lands have been sold to Menkes Developments (see my post LCBO Land Sale).  Last December, I said there was a 85% chance a sale would happen before the end of 2016, and a 50% chance of a sale to a company other than Wittington Properties (which was one of the bidders).
• There were no Bank of Canada interest rate changes in April or May (see my posts Canada Interest Rate April and Canada Interest Rate May).  I said there was a 75% chance of no change in April, and a 85% chance of no change in May.  Overall, I think I may have been over-predicting change.

Post-Mortem: Federal Politics

• Canadian airstrikes in Syria were stopped by the end of March (see my post Syrian Airstrikes Canada).  Last November, I said there was a 75% chance that they would end by then, which seems reasonable.
• The government succeeded in bringing in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of February (see my post Syrian Refugee Timing v2).  Last December, I said they had a 60% chance of success, which might have been too low.  I was somewhat wary because the government had delayed the deadline from the end of December to the end of February.
• Deepak Chopra is still the (see my post Canada Post CEO Resignation).  Last December, I said there was a 65% chance he would stay in office through the end of February, after the government apparently asked him to resign.
• The Office of Religious Freedom has been closed.  In February, I said there was a 75% chance that this would happen, which might have been somewhat low.
• Liberal Membership Fees have been abolished.  A month ago, I said there was a 90% chance that this would happen, which seems about right.