Who will win the Dominican Republic Presidential Election?
Danilo Medina: 77%
Luis Abinader: 20%
Someone Else: 3%
(If one of the named candidates dies or is incapacitated and is explicitly replaced by another candidate, that candidate success shall count as the named candidates success)
The Dominican Republic presidential election will take place in May, with a second round if necessary in June. The current president, Danilo Medina, appears to have a significant lead, with around 50% of the vote, in comparison to 35% for his nearest challenger Luis Abinader (see article here). I think the incumbent will likely win.
Sunday 31 January 2016
Friday 29 January 2016
Mandatory Victim Surcharges
Before the end of 2016, will the federal government introduce legislation to end mandatory victim surcharges?
Yes: 60%
(A partial repeal counts. The legislation doesn't need to actually pass in 2016, merely be introduced)
There has been some speculation that the federal government will undo the mandatory victim surcharges introduced by the previous Conservative government (see story here), As far as I can tell, the Liberals have not explicitly promised to do so. However, it seems likely that they will do so eventually, if not necessarily in 2016.
Yes: 60%
(A partial repeal counts. The legislation doesn't need to actually pass in 2016, merely be introduced)
There has been some speculation that the federal government will undo the mandatory victim surcharges introduced by the previous Conservative government (see story here), As far as I can tell, the Liberals have not explicitly promised to do so. However, it seems likely that they will do so eventually, if not necessarily in 2016.
Wednesday 27 January 2016
Evergreen Line Opening
When will the Evergreen Line in Metro Vancouver open?
In 2016: 5%
In January or February 2017: 25%
In March or April 2017: 25%
In May or June 2017: 20%
Not before the end of June 2017: 25%
(This question is about the start of regular commercial service, not just testing. The entire line does not need to open, just a significant part of it.)
The Evergreen Line is a under-construction rail transit line in Metro Vancouver. Service was originally supposed to start on it in fall 2016, but has been pushed back to "Early 2017" (see article here). I think the line will probably before the end of April 2017, although it could open later than that. Most of the construction seems to already be complete, so further delays seem less likely. I think the line is very unlikely to open early.
In 2016: 5%
In January or February 2017: 25%
In March or April 2017: 25%
In May or June 2017: 20%
Not before the end of June 2017: 25%
(This question is about the start of regular commercial service, not just testing. The entire line does not need to open, just a significant part of it.)
The Evergreen Line is a under-construction rail transit line in Metro Vancouver. Service was originally supposed to start on it in fall 2016, but has been pushed back to "Early 2017" (see article here). I think the line will probably before the end of April 2017, although it could open later than that. Most of the construction seems to already be complete, so further delays seem less likely. I think the line is very unlikely to open early.
Monday 25 January 2016
Canada Interest Rate March
What will be the result of the March 9th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 30%
Unchanged Rate: 65%
Rate Increase: 5%
The Bank of Canada decided to leave rates unchanged on January 20th (see article here). This was expected by about half of analysts. In March, I still think that the Bank is most likely to keep rates unchanged, but an interest rate cut seems like a real possibility, given that one was half-expected in January.
Rate Cut: 30%
Unchanged Rate: 65%
Rate Increase: 5%
The Bank of Canada decided to leave rates unchanged on January 20th (see article here). This was expected by about half of analysts. In March, I still think that the Bank is most likely to keep rates unchanged, but an interest rate cut seems like a real possibility, given that one was half-expected in January.
Saturday 23 January 2016
Zibi Move-In
By the end of June 2017, will any residents move into the Zibi condo complex?
Yes: 80%
The Zibi development, on the Ottawa River, is currently under construction (see article here). The projected move-in date is "Spring 2017". Some aboriginal groups oppose the development, and it is conceivable that it could be delayed or cancelled because of that. Ordinary construction delays could also push the move-in date past Spring 2017. I think that the move-in will most likely happen on schedule, but this is not absolutely certain.
Yes: 80%
The Zibi development, on the Ottawa River, is currently under construction (see article here). The projected move-in date is "Spring 2017". Some aboriginal groups oppose the development, and it is conceivable that it could be delayed or cancelled because of that. Ordinary construction delays could also push the move-in date past Spring 2017. I think that the move-in will most likely happen on schedule, but this is not absolutely certain.
Thursday 21 January 2016
Online Sales Exemption
Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it plans to increase the duty-free exemption for products purchased online?
Yes: 20%
The federal government is said to be considering an increase in the duty-free exemption for items purchased online (see article here). The article does not quote any specific sources in the government, although the Liberals supported a higher exemption when the Conservatives were in power. The exemption in Canada has not been changed since 1985, and is much lower than most other comparable countries. I think that the exemption will eventually be increased, but not necessarily in 2016.
Yes: 20%
The federal government is said to be considering an increase in the duty-free exemption for items purchased online (see article here). The article does not quote any specific sources in the government, although the Liberals supported a higher exemption when the Conservatives were in power. The exemption in Canada has not been changed since 1985, and is much lower than most other comparable countries. I think that the exemption will eventually be increased, but not necessarily in 2016.
Tuesday 19 January 2016
Canada Interest Rate January v2
What will be the result of the January 20th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 50%
Unchanged Rate: 47%
Rate Increase: 3%
Since my last post, more recent commentary has suggested that the Bank of Canada is more likely to cut rates than I initially thought. I am updating my odds.
Rate Cut: 50%
Unchanged Rate: 47%
Rate Increase: 3%
Since my last post, more recent commentary has suggested that the Bank of Canada is more likely to cut rates than I initially thought. I am updating my odds.
Monday 18 January 2016
Saudi Arms Deal
Before the end of 2016, will the federal government pause, cancel, or significantly modify the contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia?
Yes: 15%
The government has recently been criticized for not intervening with a contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia (see article here). The Conservative government initially approved the contract, although the Liberals also supported it at the time. The current Liberal government is still supportive. I think that support will continue.
Yes: 15%
The government has recently been criticized for not intervening with a contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia (see article here). The Conservative government initially approved the contract, although the Liberals also supported it at the time. The current Liberal government is still supportive. I think that support will continue.
Saturday 16 January 2016
Haitian Election
Who will win the Haitian Presidential Election?
Jovenel Moïse: 75%
Jude Célestin: 20%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the current scheduled runoff is rescheduled, then the result of the rescheduled election will count, as long as it is held in 2016. Initial results count as long as they clearly indicate a winner, even if they are later overturned)
The first round of the Haitian Presidential Election was held on October 25th, and resulted in Jovenel Moïse and Jude Célestin getting enough votes to get to the second round (see article here). Jovenel Moïse is the favoured candidate of the current president, and Célestin and other opposition figures have accused him of widespread fraud. Célestin in particular has refused to campaign for the runoff election. Given that Moïse got the most votes in the first round, and Célestin refuses to campaign, it looks likely Moïse will win. It is also possible (though unlikely) that someone else could win if the first round election results are somehow invalidated.
Jovenel Moïse: 75%
Jude Célestin: 20%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the current scheduled runoff is rescheduled, then the result of the rescheduled election will count, as long as it is held in 2016. Initial results count as long as they clearly indicate a winner, even if they are later overturned)
The first round of the Haitian Presidential Election was held on October 25th, and resulted in Jovenel Moïse and Jude Célestin getting enough votes to get to the second round (see article here). Jovenel Moïse is the favoured candidate of the current president, and Célestin and other opposition figures have accused him of widespread fraud. Célestin in particular has refused to campaign for the runoff election. Given that Moïse got the most votes in the first round, and Célestin refuses to campaign, it looks likely Moïse will win. It is also possible (though unlikely) that someone else could win if the first round election results are somehow invalidated.
Thursday 14 January 2016
Senate Women
Of the next 22 appointments to the Senate, what percentage will be women?
0%-49%: 25%
50%-75%: 35%
75%-100%: 40%
(If the 23rd (and further) appointments are made at the same time as the 22nd, they will also count for this question)
Some have called for all of the current 22 vacancies in the Senate to be filled by women, to achieve gender balance (see article here). The current government has not made any specific commitments, although they seem vaguely positive towards gender balance. I think that the majority of the current vacancies will indeed be filled by women, but the percentage of female appointees will probably be significantly less than 100%.
0%-49%: 25%
50%-75%: 35%
75%-100%: 40%
(If the 23rd (and further) appointments are made at the same time as the 22nd, they will also count for this question)
Some have called for all of the current 22 vacancies in the Senate to be filled by women, to achieve gender balance (see article here). The current government has not made any specific commitments, although they seem vaguely positive towards gender balance. I think that the majority of the current vacancies will indeed be filled by women, but the percentage of female appointees will probably be significantly less than 100%.
Tuesday 12 January 2016
Senate Appointment Timing
Will at least 22 senate appointments be made in 2016?
Yes: 80%
(The appointments actually need to be made, not just announced.)
The new government plans to create an advisory board to recommend candidates for the Senate, with the goal of filling the current 22 vacancies by the end of the year (see article here). It is not clear to me how firm this deadline is, but my default assumption is that it will probably be met.
Sunday 10 January 2016
Electoral Change Referendum
Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will plans to hold a referendum on making changes to the way MPs are elected?
Yes: 35%
(The referendum does not actually need to be held in 2016 (or at all), simply announced. A meta-referendum on the rules for how to change the way MPs are elected also counts)
The current federal government has promised to change the electoral system, but has said they will not hold a referendum on the proposed changes (see article here). In the provinces, referenda have usually been held on proposed changes to the electoral system, and the changes have usually failed to pass in them. Some, including the opposition Conservatives, have said a referendum should be held for national changes as well. I think the current government is likely to stick to its "no referendum" position for the duration of 2016, although it might change its mind later.
Yes: 35%
(The referendum does not actually need to be held in 2016 (or at all), simply announced. A meta-referendum on the rules for how to change the way MPs are elected also counts)
The current federal government has promised to change the electoral system, but has said they will not hold a referendum on the proposed changes (see article here). In the provinces, referenda have usually been held on proposed changes to the electoral system, and the changes have usually failed to pass in them. Some, including the opposition Conservatives, have said a referendum should be held for national changes as well. I think the current government is likely to stick to its "no referendum" position for the duration of 2016, although it might change its mind later.
Friday 8 January 2016
Canada Interest Rate January
What will be the result of the January 20th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 12%
Unchanged Rate: 85%
Rate Increase: 3%
There is continuing speculation that rates may be cut (see story here). However, given the unchanged rates in the last two meetings, I am going to increase my odds of an unchanged rate to 85% (from 80% in my last post).
Rate Cut: 12%
Unchanged Rate: 85%
Rate Increase: 3%
There is continuing speculation that rates may be cut (see story here). However, given the unchanged rates in the last two meetings, I am going to increase my odds of an unchanged rate to 85% (from 80% in my last post).
Wednesday 6 January 2016
NFL LA Relocation
By the end of 2016, which NFL teams will relocate to Los Angeles?
Zero teams: 30%
The San Diego Chargers only: 30%
The Oakland Raiders only: 10%
The St. Louis Rams only: 15%
Two or more teams: 15%
(The relocation must actually happen by the end of 2016, not just be announced)
Three teams have applied to move to Los Angeles for the next NFL season (see article here). There seems to be a real possibility that more than one team could move to LA. In October, a sports bookmaker suggested that there was at most a 60% chance of zero teams, a 40% chance of one team, and a 17% chance of two teams (see article here). In August, another bookmaker suggested that the Chargers had at most a 59% chance of moving to LA, the Rams a 47% chance, and the Raiders a 8% chance (see article here). I have the impression that the Rams are less likely to move than that, the Raiders are more likely, at least one team is rather likely to move in 2016.
Zero teams: 30%
The San Diego Chargers only: 30%
The Oakland Raiders only: 10%
The St. Louis Rams only: 15%
Two or more teams: 15%
(The relocation must actually happen by the end of 2016, not just be announced)
Three teams have applied to move to Los Angeles for the next NFL season (see article here). There seems to be a real possibility that more than one team could move to LA. In October, a sports bookmaker suggested that there was at most a 60% chance of zero teams, a 40% chance of one team, and a 17% chance of two teams (see article here). In August, another bookmaker suggested that the Chargers had at most a 59% chance of moving to LA, the Rams a 47% chance, and the Raiders a 8% chance (see article here). I have the impression that the Rams are less likely to move than that, the Raiders are more likely, at least one team is rather likely to move in 2016.
Monday 4 January 2016
Canadian Home Prices 2016
What will be the increase in Canadian Home Prices between December 2015 and December 2016 be, according to the MLS Home Price Index (HPI)?
Less than 0%: 15%
0-5%: 40%
5-10%: 30%
More than 10%: 15%
(See the tool here. The Aggregate (over all cities), Composite (over all property types) number will be used)
According to the MLS HPI, Canadian home prices have increased every year since 2006 except 2008, with an average increase of 5% or so. The rate of increase has been slightly lower in recent years than before 2008. For the 9 years 2006-2014, 1 has seen a decrease in house prices, 3 have seen a 0-5% increase, 3 have seen a 5-10% increase, and 2 have seen a 10+% increase. I think the rate of increase in 2016 is most likely to be in the 0-5% range, but a 5-10% increase is also quite possible.
Less than 0%: 15%
0-5%: 40%
5-10%: 30%
More than 10%: 15%
(See the tool here. The Aggregate (over all cities), Composite (over all property types) number will be used)
According to the MLS HPI, Canadian home prices have increased every year since 2006 except 2008, with an average increase of 5% or so. The rate of increase has been slightly lower in recent years than before 2008. For the 9 years 2006-2014, 1 has seen a decrease in house prices, 3 have seen a 0-5% increase, 3 have seen a 5-10% increase, and 2 have seen a 10+% increase. I think the rate of increase in 2016 is most likely to be in the 0-5% range, but a 5-10% increase is also quite possible.
Saturday 2 January 2016
Top Canada News 2016
What category will the Google top Canadian News Story of 2016 belong to?
Politics/Elections: 25%
Terrorism/Crime: 20%
Sports/Entertainment: 20%
Business/Economics: 10%
Some Other Category: 25%
(see the "News Stories" list here for the 2015 stories. If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)
Of the top news stories of 2015, 3 were Sports/Entertainment stories, 2 were Politics/Elections, 2 were Terrorism/Crime, and 3 were Business/Economics. I think 2015 was an unusually good year for Sports/Entertainment stories. The US Presidential Election and the Olympics are obvious contenders for biggest story of 2016. An major terrorist attack could also become the biggest story. Business/Economics rarely seem to win in this sort of competition.
My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Blue Jays Playoff Run: Sports/Entertainment
Federal Election: Politics/Elections
Pan Am Games: Sports/Entertainment
Paris Attacks: Terrorism/Crime
Charlie Hebdo Attack: Terrorism/Crime
Mayweather Pacquiao Fight: Sports/Entertainment
Donald Trump Candidacy: Politics/Elections
Greece Debt Crisis: Business/Economics
Oil Prices: Business/Economics
Ashley Madison Leak: Business/Economics
Politics/Elections: 25%
Terrorism/Crime: 20%
Sports/Entertainment: 20%
Business/Economics: 10%
Some Other Category: 25%
(see the "News Stories" list here for the 2015 stories. If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)
Of the top news stories of 2015, 3 were Sports/Entertainment stories, 2 were Politics/Elections, 2 were Terrorism/Crime, and 3 were Business/Economics. I think 2015 was an unusually good year for Sports/Entertainment stories. The US Presidential Election and the Olympics are obvious contenders for biggest story of 2016. An major terrorist attack could also become the biggest story. Business/Economics rarely seem to win in this sort of competition.
My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Blue Jays Playoff Run: Sports/Entertainment
Federal Election: Politics/Elections
Pan Am Games: Sports/Entertainment
Paris Attacks: Terrorism/Crime
Charlie Hebdo Attack: Terrorism/Crime
Mayweather Pacquiao Fight: Sports/Entertainment
Donald Trump Candidacy: Politics/Elections
Greece Debt Crisis: Business/Economics
Oil Prices: Business/Economics
Ashley Madison Leak: Business/Economics
Friday 1 January 2016
Top Global News 2016
What category will the Google top Global News Search of 2016 belong to?
Terrorism/Crime: 30%
Politics/Elections: 25%
Disasters/Diseases: 20%
Riots/Unrest: 10%
Some Other Category: 15%
(see the "Global News" list here for the list for 2015. If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)
In 2015, the top global news search was for "Charlie Hebdo" which counts as Terrorism/Crime according to my categories. In 2014, the top search was "Ebola", which counts as Disasters/Diseases. Of the 18 topics listed in the last two years, 7 have been in Terrorism/Crime, 2 in Politics/Elections, 5 in Disasters/Diseases, 3 in Riots/Unrest, and 1 in Some Other Category. I'm going to give the highest weight to Terrorism/Crime, based on the historical data. Because of the US Election, I'll give Politics/Elections a higher weight than the past history numbers would suggest. I'll also overweight Some Other Category, because to some extent I chose my categories to fit all of the stories, so the historical data probably underestimates Some Other Category.
My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Charlie Hebdo: Terrorism/Crime
Paris: Terrorism/Crime
Hurricane Patricia: Disasters/Diseases
Isis: Terrorism/Crime
Nepal: Disasters/Diseases
El Chapo: Terrorism/Crime
Greece: Politics/Elections
Baltimore Riots: Riots/Unrest
San Bernardino: Terrorism/Crime
Hurricane Joaquin: Disasters/Diseases
For 2014,
Ebola: Disasters/Diseases
ISIS: Terrorism/Crime
Malaysia Airlines: Disasters/Diseases
Crimea / Ukraine: Riots/Unrest
Ferguson: Riots/Unrest
Gaza and Israel: Some Other Category
Scotish Referendum: Politics/Elections
Oscar Pistorius trial: Terrorism/Crime
Terrorism/Crime: 30%
Politics/Elections: 25%
Disasters/Diseases: 20%
Riots/Unrest: 10%
Some Other Category: 15%
(see the "Global News" list here for the list for 2015. If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)
In 2015, the top global news search was for "Charlie Hebdo" which counts as Terrorism/Crime according to my categories. In 2014, the top search was "Ebola", which counts as Disasters/Diseases. Of the 18 topics listed in the last two years, 7 have been in Terrorism/Crime, 2 in Politics/Elections, 5 in Disasters/Diseases, 3 in Riots/Unrest, and 1 in Some Other Category. I'm going to give the highest weight to Terrorism/Crime, based on the historical data. Because of the US Election, I'll give Politics/Elections a higher weight than the past history numbers would suggest. I'll also overweight Some Other Category, because to some extent I chose my categories to fit all of the stories, so the historical data probably underestimates Some Other Category.
My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Charlie Hebdo: Terrorism/Crime
Paris: Terrorism/Crime
Hurricane Patricia: Disasters/Diseases
Isis: Terrorism/Crime
Nepal: Disasters/Diseases
El Chapo: Terrorism/Crime
Greece: Politics/Elections
Baltimore Riots: Riots/Unrest
San Bernardino: Terrorism/Crime
Hurricane Joaquin: Disasters/Diseases
For 2014,
Ebola: Disasters/Diseases
ISIS: Terrorism/Crime
Malaysia Airlines: Disasters/Diseases
Crimea / Ukraine: Riots/Unrest
Ferguson: Riots/Unrest
Gaza and Israel: Some Other Category
Scotish Referendum: Politics/Elections
Oscar Pistorius trial: Terrorism/Crime
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