Q86: By the end of 2016, will the federal government announce that it will agree to pay at least $975 million for Ottawa's Phase 2 LRT Project?
Yes: 65%
No: 35%
(A campaign promise counts if the party making the promise forms the government after the election.)
The City of Ottawa is currently planning Phase 2 of its LRT (Light Rail Transit) project (Phase 1 is under construction). Based on the phase 1 funding, the city has suggested that the cost be allocated equally between the city, the province, and the federal government. The province has pledged to provide funding, while the federal government has not clearly done so.(see here and more recently here). The city is planning on making a "formal" funding request in early 2016.
I think that the federal government will eventually provide funding for the LRT, if it proceeds according to plan. That seems to be the "default" position. The current reluctance to announce funding is probably due to the early stage of the planning for Phase 2 LRT. It is possible that the city LRT Phase 2 planning process will be sufficiently delayed that federal funding may not be announced by this question's end date.
Monday 30 March 2015
Sunday 29 March 2015
Ottawa Newspapers
Q85: Will either the Ottawa Citizen or the Ottawa Sun stop publishing by the end of 2016?
Yes: 40%
No: 60%
(A transition to a non-print or free newspaper counts. A merger of the two newspapers (or a merger of one of them with another newspaper) counts. A temporary suspension of publishing does not count. A reduction in the publication days counts, as long as the paper is no longer published on the majority of days it is currently published on. For example, reducing the Sun to a Sunday-only paper counts.)
Postmedia, the owner of the Ottawa Citizen, recently received Competition Bureau approval for its purchase of Sun Media, the owner of the Ottawa Sun. Newspapers have been generally struggling in recent years due to digital competition and decreasing advertising revenue. In the US, several major newspapers have closed down. The merger of Postmedia and Sun Media makes a closure of either the Sun or the Citizen more plausible (because the other will benefit from the reduced competition). Ottawa is a relatively small newspaper market to have two daily papers. The President of Postmedia, Paul Godfrey, has indicated that there are no immediate plans to close any papers.
I am not optimistic about the long term fate of the Citizen and Sun. However, they may survive for quite a while; I think it will take about 3 years on average for one of them to stop publishing. This corresponds to about 40% odds before the end of 2016.
Yes: 40%
No: 60%
(A transition to a non-print or free newspaper counts. A merger of the two newspapers (or a merger of one of them with another newspaper) counts. A temporary suspension of publishing does not count. A reduction in the publication days counts, as long as the paper is no longer published on the majority of days it is currently published on. For example, reducing the Sun to a Sunday-only paper counts.)
Postmedia, the owner of the Ottawa Citizen, recently received Competition Bureau approval for its purchase of Sun Media, the owner of the Ottawa Sun. Newspapers have been generally struggling in recent years due to digital competition and decreasing advertising revenue. In the US, several major newspapers have closed down. The merger of Postmedia and Sun Media makes a closure of either the Sun or the Citizen more plausible (because the other will benefit from the reduced competition). Ottawa is a relatively small newspaper market to have two daily papers. The President of Postmedia, Paul Godfrey, has indicated that there are no immediate plans to close any papers.
I am not optimistic about the long term fate of the Citizen and Sun. However, they may survive for quite a while; I think it will take about 3 years on average for one of them to stop publishing. This corresponds to about 40% odds before the end of 2016.
Saturday 28 March 2015
Canada Post Moratorium
Q84: By the end of 2016, will Canada Post announce a moratorium on its plan to cease home delivery?
Yes: 30%
No: 70%
(In case of a geographically limited moratorium, the question will be resolved by what happens in Ottawa. A slowdown in the transition from home delivery is not sufficient, but a temporary moratorium is.)
Canada Post is currently transitioning from home delivery to community mailboxes across Canada, with a estimated completion date in 2018. In 2015, they are planning to cease home delivery in large portions of the west end of Ottawa. Opponents of the current plan would like a moratorium on the transition.
The Conservatives support Canada Post's transition plan, while the Liberals and NDP appear to be opposed. I think that it is very unlikely (10% chance) that the Conservatives will announce a moratorium if they are re-elected. Although the Liberals have implied that they would support a moratorium, I am far from convinced that they will actually do so if elected. They are probably more likely to do so if they are in a formal or informal coalition with the NDP, which is quite possible. Overall, I estimate the Liberals have a 40% chance of announcing a moratorium by the end of 2016, and the NDP have a 90% chance of doing so. Given my estimate of the federal election result, I get a 30% chance of a moratorium.
Yes: 30%
No: 70%
(In case of a geographically limited moratorium, the question will be resolved by what happens in Ottawa. A slowdown in the transition from home delivery is not sufficient, but a temporary moratorium is.)
Canada Post is currently transitioning from home delivery to community mailboxes across Canada, with a estimated completion date in 2018. In 2015, they are planning to cease home delivery in large portions of the west end of Ottawa. Opponents of the current plan would like a moratorium on the transition.
The Conservatives support Canada Post's transition plan, while the Liberals and NDP appear to be opposed. I think that it is very unlikely (10% chance) that the Conservatives will announce a moratorium if they are re-elected. Although the Liberals have implied that they would support a moratorium, I am far from convinced that they will actually do so if elected. They are probably more likely to do so if they are in a formal or informal coalition with the NDP, which is quite possible. Overall, I estimate the Liberals have a 40% chance of announcing a moratorium by the end of 2016, and the NDP have a 90% chance of doing so. Given my estimate of the federal election result, I get a 30% chance of a moratorium.
Friday 27 March 2015
Ottawa Gas Price
Q83: What will the average regular gasoline price per litre in Ottawa be at the end of 2015?
Less than $0.9: 20%
Between $0.9 and $1: 25%
Between $1 and $1.1: 25%
More than $1.1: 30%
(The average Ottawa price according to the Ontario Ministry of Energy on the last day of the year that they have a record for shall be determinative (see here for their data for previous years))
Gasoline is currently priced at about $1 per litre in Ottawa, but the price is very volatile. Using data from the Ontario Ministry of Energy for the past 24 years , I calculated what percentage of the time gas prices decreased and increased by 10% or more, and used that to calculate the estimates above.
Less than $0.9: 20%
Between $0.9 and $1: 25%
Between $1 and $1.1: 25%
More than $1.1: 30%
(The average Ottawa price according to the Ontario Ministry of Energy on the last day of the year that they have a record for shall be determinative (see here for their data for previous years))
Gasoline is currently priced at about $1 per litre in Ottawa, but the price is very volatile. Using data from the Ontario Ministry of Energy for the past 24 years , I calculated what percentage of the time gas prices decreased and increased by 10% or more, and used that to calculate the estimates above.
Thursday 26 March 2015
Andreas Lubitz's motive
Q82: When will an official announcement be made regarding Andreas Lubitz's motive in crashing Germanwings Flight 4U9525?
Before the end of March: 30%
Between April 1, 2015 and the end of 2015: 25%
Not before the end of 2015: 45%
(An announcement that "no motive can be found" does not count. An announcement that Lubitz was not responsible for crashing the plane, or did not intentionally crash the plane would count. The official announcement must be based at least in part on significant evidence that is currently not public. The evidence does not need to be conclusive, and the conclusion regarding the motive does not need to be universally accepted)
Andres Lubitz was the co-pilot of the recently crashed Germanwings Flight 4U9525. Authorities say that he deliberately crashed the plane. There does not seem to be any clear evidence of motive at this point. I think that the motive may be revealed shortly, perhaps by personal effects left by Lubitz, or by interviews with family or friends.
If the motive is not revealed shortly, it is quite possible that no significant new evidence will come to light, at least before the end of 2015. Based on previous examples of this type (see a list here), the motive is often very unclear.
Before the end of March: 30%
Between April 1, 2015 and the end of 2015: 25%
Not before the end of 2015: 45%
(An announcement that "no motive can be found" does not count. An announcement that Lubitz was not responsible for crashing the plane, or did not intentionally crash the plane would count. The official announcement must be based at least in part on significant evidence that is currently not public. The evidence does not need to be conclusive, and the conclusion regarding the motive does not need to be universally accepted)
Andres Lubitz was the co-pilot of the recently crashed Germanwings Flight 4U9525. Authorities say that he deliberately crashed the plane. There does not seem to be any clear evidence of motive at this point. I think that the motive may be revealed shortly, perhaps by personal effects left by Lubitz, or by interviews with family or friends.
If the motive is not revealed shortly, it is quite possible that no significant new evidence will come to light, at least before the end of 2015. Based on previous examples of this type (see a list here), the motive is often very unclear.
Wednesday 25 March 2015
Aden Capture
Q81: When will the Houthis or their allies capture Aden, Yemen?
By the end of March: 30%
In April: 40%
Later or Never: 30%
(Aden means "Aden city centre".)
Houthi forces have recently captured the Aden airport, and seem poised to attack the rest of the city. According to the article, "Diplomats say they suspect the Houthis want to take Aden before an Arab summit this weekend". I think that the Houthis will capture Aden by the end of April, and quite possibly by the end of March.
By the end of March: 30%
In April: 40%
Later or Never: 30%
(Aden means "Aden city centre".)
Houthi forces have recently captured the Aden airport, and seem poised to attack the rest of the city. According to the article, "Diplomats say they suspect the Houthis want to take Aden before an Arab summit this weekend". I think that the Houthis will capture Aden by the end of April, and quite possibly by the end of March.
Saturday 21 March 2015
CRTC Cable Unbundling
Currently, TV channels in Canada are offered in bundles; you cannot "pick-and-pay" for individual stations. For instance, if the only station you are interested in are TSN, and your provider is Rogers, you must subscribe to the "Digital Plus" package, which costs $64 a month (not including hardware rental and taxes). The cheapest cable package, by comparison, is about $40 per month.
In a recent decision, the CRTC announced that it would require $25 per month "basic" cable, and pick-and-pay channels, by the end of 2016. This question is meant to forecast the extent to which this decision will actually lead to lower cable rates at that time.
Q80: By the beginning of 2017, will the minimum price for a Rogers cable subscription including Sportsnet and TSN be less than $60 per month?
Yes: 60%
No: 40%
(The price used used will be the non-promotional price in Ottawa, exclusive of taxes and hardware rental but inclusive of all other fees)
It is possible that the implementation date of the CRTC decision will be delayed, so that rates are not lower by the end of 2016. It is also possible that the decision will be changed or interpreted so that it does not actually lead to lower rates in the scenario devised. Either of these things seem quite possible.
In a recent decision, the CRTC announced that it would require $25 per month "basic" cable, and pick-and-pay channels, by the end of 2016. This question is meant to forecast the extent to which this decision will actually lead to lower cable rates at that time.
Q80: By the beginning of 2017, will the minimum price for a Rogers cable subscription including Sportsnet and TSN be less than $60 per month?
Yes: 60%
No: 40%
(The price used used will be the non-promotional price in Ottawa, exclusive of taxes and hardware rental but inclusive of all other fees)
It is possible that the implementation date of the CRTC decision will be delayed, so that rates are not lower by the end of 2016. It is also possible that the decision will be changed or interpreted so that it does not actually lead to lower rates in the scenario devised. Either of these things seem quite possible.
Friday 20 March 2015
Car Rental Competition
Q79: Will Avis/Budget be fined at least $10 million as a result of the recent Competition Bureau complaint?
Yes: 70%
No: 30%
The Competition Bureau recently announced that it was seeking $30 million for "deceptive marketing practices" by Avis/Budget (which have common ownership). I think that this complaint will eventually succeed, and Avis/Budget will face a significant fine (possibly less than $30 million).
Yes: 70%
No: 30%
The Competition Bureau recently announced that it was seeking $30 million for "deceptive marketing practices" by Avis/Budget (which have common ownership). I think that this complaint will eventually succeed, and Avis/Budget will face a significant fine (possibly less than $30 million).
Thursday 19 March 2015
Hydro One Sale
Q78: By the end of 2015, will the Ontario government announce that Hydro One is being sold, in whole or in part?
Yes: 75%
No: 25%
(The sale could be to private or public investors, but not to another government or government-owned agency)
There have been rumours that the provincial government is considering the partial sale of Hydro One, the provincial electricity generation company, to private investors. These rumours have neither been denied or confirmed by the Premier.
I think that a sale is a definite possibility, but not at all certain. There would be political opposition from unions and the provincial NDP. The ambiguous statements so far do not seem to clearly indicate what will happen.
Yes: 75%
No: 25%
(The sale could be to private or public investors, but not to another government or government-owned agency)
There have been rumours that the provincial government is considering the partial sale of Hydro One, the provincial electricity generation company, to private investors. These rumours have neither been denied or confirmed by the Premier.
I think that a sale is a definite possibility, but not at all certain. There would be political opposition from unions and the provincial NDP. The ambiguous statements so far do not seem to clearly indicate what will happen.
Wednesday 18 March 2015
Beer and Wine Sales
Q77: By the end of 2015, will the Ontario government announce that it will allow the sale of alcohol in supermarkets or convenience stores?
Yes: 85%
No: 15%
(This question will resolve as "yes" if a substantial number of alcoholic products can be sold in a substantial number of supermarkets or convenience stores. Restrictions on the stores that can sell alcohol or the varieties that can be sold are acceptable. Requiring a separate mini-store is also acceptable, as long as the mini-store is owned by the host store.)
According to a recent story, the Ontario government is considering allowing beer and wine to be sold in large supermarkets. They had previously denied that they plan to allow the sale of alcohol in convenience stores, and cancelled a limited plan to put LCBO outlets in grocery stores.
This plan seems to be in an fairly advanced stage, and an announcement is likely imminent. Still, the province might backtrack on the plans before officially announcing them.
Yes: 85%
No: 15%
(This question will resolve as "yes" if a substantial number of alcoholic products can be sold in a substantial number of supermarkets or convenience stores. Restrictions on the stores that can sell alcohol or the varieties that can be sold are acceptable. Requiring a separate mini-store is also acceptable, as long as the mini-store is owned by the host store.)
According to a recent story, the Ontario government is considering allowing beer and wine to be sold in large supermarkets. They had previously denied that they plan to allow the sale of alcohol in convenience stores, and cancelled a limited plan to put LCBO outlets in grocery stores.
This plan seems to be in an fairly advanced stage, and an announcement is likely imminent. Still, the province might backtrack on the plans before officially announcing them.
Tuesday 17 March 2015
Nunuvut Jail
Q76: By the end of 2015, will the Government of Nunavut announce that it plans to close the Baffin Correctional Centre?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(A temporary closure counts. A move to another location also counts)
Nunavut's largest jail, the Baffin Correctional Centre, was recently criticized for its poor conditions by the Auditor General. A previous report in 2013 had also found "appalling" conditions, and recommended that the jail close. There have been repeated efforts to improve conditions at the jail. According to the most recent Auditor General report, an evaluation is taking place involving "the viability of the Baffin Correctional Centre moving forward". The evaluation should be complete by April 2015.
I do not think that the jail will be closed; the Nunavut government has repeatedly failed to close it in the past, despite similar reports. It would presumably be very expensive to build a new maximum-security jail, which would have to be done if the Baffin Correctional Centre is closed. The latest report does not explicitly call for the current jail to be closed.
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(A temporary closure counts. A move to another location also counts)
Nunavut's largest jail, the Baffin Correctional Centre, was recently criticized for its poor conditions by the Auditor General. A previous report in 2013 had also found "appalling" conditions, and recommended that the jail close. There have been repeated efforts to improve conditions at the jail. According to the most recent Auditor General report, an evaluation is taking place involving "the viability of the Baffin Correctional Centre moving forward". The evaluation should be complete by April 2015.
I do not think that the jail will be closed; the Nunavut government has repeatedly failed to close it in the past, despite similar reports. It would presumably be very expensive to build a new maximum-security jail, which would have to be done if the Baffin Correctional Centre is closed. The latest report does not explicitly call for the current jail to be closed.
Monday 16 March 2015
NL Election
Q75: What party will win the most seats in the 2015 Newfoundland and Labrador Election?
Progressive Conservative: 7%
Liberal: 90%
New Democrat: 3%
There will be an election held in Newfoundland before September 26, 2015. According to recent polls, the Liberals are leading with 60% support, while the PCs are at 30% and the NDP at 10%. The PCs (and the NDP) were leading in the polls as recently as 2013.
Given the lead in the polls, the Liberals are overwhelmingly likely to win the election. The PCs are more likely to win then the NDP.
Progressive Conservative: 7%
Liberal: 90%
New Democrat: 3%
There will be an election held in Newfoundland before September 26, 2015. According to recent polls, the Liberals are leading with 60% support, while the PCs are at 30% and the NDP at 10%. The PCs (and the NDP) were leading in the polls as recently as 2013.
Given the lead in the polls, the Liberals are overwhelmingly likely to win the election. The PCs are more likely to win then the NDP.
Sunday 15 March 2015
Victims of Communism Memorial
Q74: By the end of 2015, will construction commence on the Victims of Communism Memorial with the current proposed location and design?
Yes: 60%
No: 40%
(Small changes in the design, name, or location of the memorial do not matter. A substantial change of purpose of the memorial would matter.)
The federal government is currently planning to build a memorial to the Victims of Communism on land in front of the Supreme Court (see summary article here). The location of the memorial has been criticized as contrary to plans to eventually build a federal court building there. The design and size of the memorial have also attracted controversy. The Liberals, NDP, and Ottawa mayor Jim Watson have all said they oppose the location and/or design of the memorial. Despite the criticism, the Conservatives have continued to support the current location and design. Construction is scheduled to begin this year, and be completed by the fall.
I think that the memorial will probably be built according to the current specifications. There are political costs to the Conservatives in cancelling or moving the memorial. There has been little indication that they plan to revisit the location or design. Still, it is possible that they may bow to the pressure to move or redesign the memorial.
Yes: 60%
No: 40%
(Small changes in the design, name, or location of the memorial do not matter. A substantial change of purpose of the memorial would matter.)
The federal government is currently planning to build a memorial to the Victims of Communism on land in front of the Supreme Court (see summary article here). The location of the memorial has been criticized as contrary to plans to eventually build a federal court building there. The design and size of the memorial have also attracted controversy. The Liberals, NDP, and Ottawa mayor Jim Watson have all said they oppose the location and/or design of the memorial. Despite the criticism, the Conservatives have continued to support the current location and design. Construction is scheduled to begin this year, and be completed by the fall.
I think that the memorial will probably be built according to the current specifications. There are political costs to the Conservatives in cancelling or moving the memorial. There has been little indication that they plan to revisit the location or design. Still, it is possible that they may bow to the pressure to move or redesign the memorial.
Saturday 14 March 2015
Danish Election
Q73: Which party will win the most seats in the next Danish Parliamentary Election?
Venstre: 40%
Social Democrats: 35%
Danish People's Party: 23%
Some Other Party: 2%
The next Danish parliamentary election will take place sometime before September 14. According to current polls, the centre-right Venstre Party and centre-left Social Democrats are tied with about 23% of the vote each (Venestre averages a slightly higher percentage), while the right-wing populist Danish People's Party has about 21% of the vote. All other parties have less than 10% of the vote.
Based on those numbers, I think that any of the three of the main parties could reasonably win. Venestre and the Social Democrats are almost equally likely to win, while the Danish People Party are less likely to win.
Venstre: 40%
Social Democrats: 35%
Danish People's Party: 23%
Some Other Party: 2%
The next Danish parliamentary election will take place sometime before September 14. According to current polls, the centre-right Venstre Party and centre-left Social Democrats are tied with about 23% of the vote each (Venestre averages a slightly higher percentage), while the right-wing populist Danish People's Party has about 21% of the vote. All other parties have less than 10% of the vote.
Based on those numbers, I think that any of the three of the main parties could reasonably win. Venestre and the Social Democrats are almost equally likely to win, while the Danish People Party are less likely to win.
Friday 13 March 2015
Simsubbing Super Bowl Ads
Q72: Will Bell's appeal of the CRTC's Super Bowl simsubbing decision at the Federal Court of Appeal succeed in overturning that decision?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Decisions by other courts are irrelevant. The Federal Court of Appeal must substantially overturn the CRTC's decision, but not all of the decision must be overturned)
In a recent decision, the CRTC banned simultaneous substitution (simsubbing) of ads for the Super Bowl starting in 2017. Bell is attempting to appeal the decision at the Federal Court of Appeal.
I do not think Bell's appeal will succeed, for similar reasons as the Mobile TV App Appeal. This case might be harder for the CRTC to defend, as the decision seems less motivated by general principles. On the other hand, it is a smaller change, which might help the CRTC.
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Decisions by other courts are irrelevant. The Federal Court of Appeal must substantially overturn the CRTC's decision, but not all of the decision must be overturned)
In a recent decision, the CRTC banned simultaneous substitution (simsubbing) of ads for the Super Bowl starting in 2017. Bell is attempting to appeal the decision at the Federal Court of Appeal.
I do not think Bell's appeal will succeed, for similar reasons as the Mobile TV App Appeal. This case might be harder for the CRTC to defend, as the decision seems less motivated by general principles. On the other hand, it is a smaller change, which might help the CRTC.
Thursday 12 March 2015
Boko Haram Gwoza
Q71: By the end of April 2015, will Boko Haram lose control of the town of the Nigerian town of Gowza?
Yes: 35%
No: 65%
According to recent reports, Boko Haram militants are assembling in the town of Gwoza, to prepare for the defence of that town. Nigerian and other national forces are currently undertaking an offensive against Boko Haram.
Nigerian troops have not been particularly effective so far at fighting Boko Haram, although they may face more pressure to succeed before the upcoming delayed presidential election. Still, I do not think that Gwoza will change hands before the end of April.
Yes: 35%
No: 65%
According to recent reports, Boko Haram militants are assembling in the town of Gwoza, to prepare for the defence of that town. Nigerian and other national forces are currently undertaking an offensive against Boko Haram.
Nigerian troops have not been particularly effective so far at fighting Boko Haram, although they may face more pressure to succeed before the upcoming delayed presidential election. Still, I do not think that Gwoza will change hands before the end of April.
Wednesday 11 March 2015
CraveTV / Shomi Restrictions
Q70: By the beginning of 2016, will one or both of Shomi and CraveTV be available to Canadians without requiring a telecommunications or TV subscription?
Both: 18%
Shomi Only: 8%
CraveTV Only: 4%
Neither: 70%
(This question will be resolved based on availability in Ottawa, in the case that differs from availability in other parts of the country. Differential pricing for those with and without a subscription is acceptable, as long as prices for those without a subscription are substantially lower than the price of a subscription. If Shomi or CraveTV are withdrawn from the market completely, they will be deemed to be not available)
Shomi and CraveTV are two new Canadian online video services launched by Rogers/Shaw and Bell/Telus, respectively. Shomi is available only to Rogers/Shaw Internet or TV subscribers, while CraveTV is only available to Bell/Telus TV subscribers. Two consumer groups have called on the CRTC to end these restrictions.
The most likely outcome is that Shomi and CraveTV will both require some sort of other subscription for availability (although they might both substantially expand availability). If Bell or Rogers wanted them to be generally available, they would have launched them with general availability. They might decide to change strategy based on early data, but I think they are more likely simply to scrap the services. I think that the CRTC will either make no decision in 2015, decide that they don't have jurisdiction over CraveTV/Shomi, or decide that the requirement for a subscription is acceptable.
If CraveTV or Shomi are made generally available, they probably both will be (either due to a CRTC decision, or due to competitive pressures). If only one is made available, it is more likely to be Shomi, which is more widely available now, more expensive, and whose owners are "evaluating various distribution models".
Both: 18%
Shomi Only: 8%
CraveTV Only: 4%
Neither: 70%
(This question will be resolved based on availability in Ottawa, in the case that differs from availability in other parts of the country. Differential pricing for those with and without a subscription is acceptable, as long as prices for those without a subscription are substantially lower than the price of a subscription. If Shomi or CraveTV are withdrawn from the market completely, they will be deemed to be not available)
Shomi and CraveTV are two new Canadian online video services launched by Rogers/Shaw and Bell/Telus, respectively. Shomi is available only to Rogers/Shaw Internet or TV subscribers, while CraveTV is only available to Bell/Telus TV subscribers. Two consumer groups have called on the CRTC to end these restrictions.
The most likely outcome is that Shomi and CraveTV will both require some sort of other subscription for availability (although they might both substantially expand availability). If Bell or Rogers wanted them to be generally available, they would have launched them with general availability. They might decide to change strategy based on early data, but I think they are more likely simply to scrap the services. I think that the CRTC will either make no decision in 2015, decide that they don't have jurisdiction over CraveTV/Shomi, or decide that the requirement for a subscription is acceptable.
If CraveTV or Shomi are made generally available, they probably both will be (either due to a CRTC decision, or due to competitive pressures). If only one is made available, it is more likely to be Shomi, which is more widely available now, more expensive, and whose owners are "evaluating various distribution models".
Tuesday 10 March 2015
Staples in Ottawa
Q67: Will it be announced in 2015 that any Staples locations in Ottawa will close or change ownership?
Yes: 60%
No: 40%
(There are currently 8 Staples locations in Ottawa)
Like many big-box retailers, Staples has been experiencing problems in recent years. Competition from other retailers (including online retailers) and the declining need for paper products are some of the problems. Staples closed 15 of its 330 stores in Canada last year. The stores in Bells Corners and Smiths Falls have recently closed. Many store closures seem to be timed to be after the back-to-school season.
I think that it is quite likely that an additional location will close in 2015. Stores seem to be closing at a fair rate, and there are a number of stores in Ottawa that might be vulnerable. If 15 more stores close at random in 2015, then there is a 33% chance that a store in Ottawa will close. This probably underestimates the chance of a closure, as store closures are likely to be more uniform than random store closings would be.
Yes: 60%
No: 40%
(There are currently 8 Staples locations in Ottawa)
Like many big-box retailers, Staples has been experiencing problems in recent years. Competition from other retailers (including online retailers) and the declining need for paper products are some of the problems. Staples closed 15 of its 330 stores in Canada last year. The stores in Bells Corners and Smiths Falls have recently closed. Many store closures seem to be timed to be after the back-to-school season.
I think that it is quite likely that an additional location will close in 2015. Stores seem to be closing at a fair rate, and there are a number of stores in Ottawa that might be vulnerable. If 15 more stores close at random in 2015, then there is a 33% chance that a store in Ottawa will close. This probably underestimates the chance of a closure, as store closures are likely to be more uniform than random store closings would be.
Monday 9 March 2015
Ontario PC Leadership Race v2
Q68: Who will win the Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) Leadership Race?
Christine Elliott: 60%
Patrick Brown: 35%
Monte McNaughton: 5%
The complexion of the PC Leadership race has changed significantly since my last post. In particular, Lisa MacLeod has dropped out to support Christine Elliott, while Patrick Brown has gained momentum. According to recent reports, Patrick Brown has signed up the most new party members, although Christine Elliot had a significant edge in fundraising.
My sense is that Christine Elliot is still the frontrunner; she has the better organization, and probably will do disproportionately well in places with few PC members (which matters given the way the election works). According to recent numbers, Elliot signed up about as many new members as Brown. On the other hand, Brown seems to be the clear second candidate, and is probably more likely to get the second-place votes of McNaughton supporters than Elliott is.
Christine Elliott: 60%
Patrick Brown: 35%
Monte McNaughton: 5%
The complexion of the PC Leadership race has changed significantly since my last post. In particular, Lisa MacLeod has dropped out to support Christine Elliott, while Patrick Brown has gained momentum. According to recent reports, Patrick Brown has signed up the most new party members, although Christine Elliot had a significant edge in fundraising.
My sense is that Christine Elliot is still the frontrunner; she has the better organization, and probably will do disproportionately well in places with few PC members (which matters given the way the election works). According to recent numbers, Elliot signed up about as many new members as Brown. On the other hand, Brown seems to be the clear second candidate, and is probably more likely to get the second-place votes of McNaughton supporters than Elliott is.
Sunday 8 March 2015
Chapters/Indigo in Ottawa
Q67: Will it be announced in 2015 that any Chapters or Indigo locations in Ottawa will close or change ownership?
Yes: 30%
No: 70%
(A closure of a Coles location would not count for this question. There are currently 5 Chapters and 1 Indigo location in Ottawa)
Indigo, the bookseller that owns Chapters, has had some financial problems in recent years, due to competition from online booksellers and eBooks. It recently closed 3 stores in Toronto. Given that, it would not be surprising if a location were to close in Ottawa (where there are a fair number of locations, especially in the west end).
Having said that, I am aware of no solid (or even non-solid) information suggesting that a location will close. No locations in Ottawa have closed in the recent past.
Yes: 30%
No: 70%
(A closure of a Coles location would not count for this question. There are currently 5 Chapters and 1 Indigo location in Ottawa)
Indigo, the bookseller that owns Chapters, has had some financial problems in recent years, due to competition from online booksellers and eBooks. It recently closed 3 stores in Toronto. Given that, it would not be surprising if a location were to close in Ottawa (where there are a fair number of locations, especially in the west end).
Having said that, I am aware of no solid (or even non-solid) information suggesting that a location will close. No locations in Ottawa have closed in the recent past.
Saturday 7 March 2015
Tikrit Control
Q66: By the end of March, will Iraqi troops succeed in pushing the IS out of Tikrit?
Yes: 85%
No: 15%
Iraqi forces are currently advancing on the IS-controlled town of Tikrit (the offensive started on Monday). According to this article, the IS is greatly outnumbered. They were expected to reach the outskirts of the town yesterday (March 6). From the above stories, I think that the town is very likely to be captured by the end of March. It is possible that the offensive could stall (or even be called off).
Yes: 85%
No: 15%
Iraqi forces are currently advancing on the IS-controlled town of Tikrit (the offensive started on Monday). According to this article, the IS is greatly outnumbered. They were expected to reach the outskirts of the town yesterday (March 6). From the above stories, I think that the town is very likely to be captured by the end of March. It is possible that the offensive could stall (or even be called off).
Friday 6 March 2015
EU Russian Sanctions
Q65: By the end of July, will the EU
Impose additional sanctions on Russia: 30%
Extend the current sanctions: 50%
Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire: 20%
(If the EU either imposes additional sanctions or loosens them, that will immediately cause this question to resolve. For instance, if the EU imposes additional sanctions but later cancels them, the question will resolve as "impose additional sanctions". If sanctions are allowed to expire but then reapplied, the question will resolve as "Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire")
EU foreign ministers are currently considering whether to extend current sanctions on Russia (the current sanctions expire in July), due to the crisis in Ukraine. Based on sentiment at those meetings, it seems that the current sanctions on Russia are likely to be extended. According to the EU foreign policy chief "They will not be lifted until something really good happens on the ground and on the other side we are always ready to increase the pressure if needed".
As mentioned in the above quote, additional sanctions might also be applied. I don't think this is likely to happen unless Russia escalates the conflict. According to a recent Deutsche Welle article, "EU not in a hurry to introduce further sanctions against Russia".
Impose additional sanctions on Russia: 30%
Extend the current sanctions: 50%
Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire: 20%
(If the EU either imposes additional sanctions or loosens them, that will immediately cause this question to resolve. For instance, if the EU imposes additional sanctions but later cancels them, the question will resolve as "impose additional sanctions". If sanctions are allowed to expire but then reapplied, the question will resolve as "Loosen current sanctions or allow them to expire")
EU foreign ministers are currently considering whether to extend current sanctions on Russia (the current sanctions expire in July), due to the crisis in Ukraine. Based on sentiment at those meetings, it seems that the current sanctions on Russia are likely to be extended. According to the EU foreign policy chief "They will not be lifted until something really good happens on the ground and on the other side we are always ready to increase the pressure if needed".
As mentioned in the above quote, additional sanctions might also be applied. I don't think this is likely to happen unless Russia escalates the conflict. According to a recent Deutsche Welle article, "EU not in a hurry to introduce further sanctions against Russia".
Thursday 5 March 2015
Portugese Election
Q64: What party will win the most seats in the next Portuguese election?
Social Democratic Party: 29%
Socialist Party: 70%
Someone Else: 1%
The next Portuguese election is scheduled for late September or early October of this year (see the Wikipedia article here). The Socialist Party currently has about an 8% lead in the polls over the center-right Social Democratic Party (about 37% to 29%). The other parties are well back (the highest has a 10% vote total). Portugal has a mixed proportional representation system, so the party leading in the vote total is very likely to win the most seats.
Based on the same methodology as the Greek election, I estimate the Socialist party has about a 70% chance of winning. If they don't win, the Social Democratic Party is almost certain to win.
Social Democratic Party: 29%
Socialist Party: 70%
Someone Else: 1%
The next Portuguese election is scheduled for late September or early October of this year (see the Wikipedia article here). The Socialist Party currently has about an 8% lead in the polls over the center-right Social Democratic Party (about 37% to 29%). The other parties are well back (the highest has a 10% vote total). Portugal has a mixed proportional representation system, so the party leading in the vote total is very likely to win the most seats.
Based on the same methodology as the Greek election, I estimate the Socialist party has about a 70% chance of winning. If they don't win, the Social Democratic Party is almost certain to win.
Wednesday 4 March 2015
Finnish Election
Q63: What party will win the most seats in the next Finnish election?
National Coalition Party: 12%
Social Democratic Party: 12%
Finns Party: 5%
Centre Party: 70%
Someone Other Party: 1%
Finland will be holding a parliamentary election on April 19. The current government is a coalition composed of the National Coalition Party, the Social Democratic Party, and two smaller parties. In current polling, the Centre Part is leading with around 26% of the vote, the National Coalition and Social Democratic parties are tied with about 17% of the vote each, and the Finns Party is fourth with about Finland uses a mixed form of proportional representation, so the party with the largest vote total is very likely to have the most seats.
Given the Centre Party's lead, I would estimate that the National Coalition and Social Democratic Parties each have about a 12% chance of winning. The Finns Party, given their lower polling numbers and more focussed appeal, probably have about 5% chance of winning. The Centre Party has about a 70% chance of winning, while the other parties are very unlikely to win.
National Coalition Party: 12%
Social Democratic Party: 12%
Finns Party: 5%
Centre Party: 70%
Someone Other Party: 1%
Finland will be holding a parliamentary election on April 19. The current government is a coalition composed of the National Coalition Party, the Social Democratic Party, and two smaller parties. In current polling, the Centre Part is leading with around 26% of the vote, the National Coalition and Social Democratic parties are tied with about 17% of the vote each, and the Finns Party is fourth with about Finland uses a mixed form of proportional representation, so the party with the largest vote total is very likely to have the most seats.
Given the Centre Party's lead, I would estimate that the National Coalition and Social Democratic Parties each have about a 12% chance of winning. The Finns Party, given their lower polling numbers and more focussed appeal, probably have about 5% chance of winning. The Centre Party has about a 70% chance of winning, while the other parties are very unlikely to win.
Tuesday 3 March 2015
Mobile TV App Pricing
Q62: Will Bell's appeal of the CRTC's Mobile TV decision at the Federal Court of Appeal succeed in overturning that decision?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Decisions by other courts are irrelevant. The Federal Court of Appeal must substantially overturn the CRTC's decision, but not all of the decision must be overturned)
For its mobile customers, Bell currently offers lower prices (effectively) for programming streamed using its Bell TV app. Programming not available through the Bell TV app is thus more expensive than that available through the Bell TV app. In a recent decision, the CRTC found that this is unlawful (this was seen as support for net neutrality). Bell is attempting to appeal the decision at the Federal Court of Appeal.
I do not think Bell's appeal will succeed, although the stories do not make this clear. My general sense is that overturning CRTC decisions through the legal process is a difficult thing to do. This appeal seems more like a delaying tactic to stop the decision from going into force than anything else.
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Decisions by other courts are irrelevant. The Federal Court of Appeal must substantially overturn the CRTC's decision, but not all of the decision must be overturned)
For its mobile customers, Bell currently offers lower prices (effectively) for programming streamed using its Bell TV app. Programming not available through the Bell TV app is thus more expensive than that available through the Bell TV app. In a recent decision, the CRTC found that this is unlawful (this was seen as support for net neutrality). Bell is attempting to appeal the decision at the Federal Court of Appeal.
I do not think Bell's appeal will succeed, although the stories do not make this clear. My general sense is that overturning CRTC decisions through the legal process is a difficult thing to do. This appeal seems more like a delaying tactic to stop the decision from going into force than anything else.
Monday 2 March 2015
Turkish Election
Q61: How many seats will the Justice and Development Party (AKP) win in Turkey's next parliamentary election?
Less than 276: 15%
More than 276, less than 330: 55%
More than 330, less than 367: 20%
More than 367: 10%
Turkey is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on June 7. The AKP currently has a parliamentary majority of 312 seats; to retain their majority, they need at least 276 seats (of 550). They would like to win more seats in order to change the constitution. If they win more than 330 seats, they will be able to propose a referendum to change the Turkish constitution. If they win more than 376, they will be able to change the constitution outright. This article has more details.
The AKP is leading in the polls with around 45% of the vote. The main opposition parties are the CHP with 26% of the vote, the MHP with 16% of the vote, and the HDP with 9% of the vote. Turkey has a unusual mixed proportional representation system, where parties with less than 10% of the vote are eliminated, and their votes are given to the party with the largest share of the vote. Given that, with current poll numbers, the AKP would get about 319 seats (which is about what they got in the last election). If the HDP breaks the 10% threshold, the AKP might not even get a majority.
I think that the AKP will likely get a majority; the polls suggest that this is likely, and it was what happened in the last election. I do not think they will break the 330 or 367 seat thresholds (although they might break the 330-seat threshold if they do especially well in the election. This article (probably from a biased source) suggests that most Turks oppose the AKP's proposed constitutional reforms, which will be a problem for the AKP.
Less than 276: 15%
More than 276, less than 330: 55%
More than 330, less than 367: 20%
More than 367: 10%
Turkey is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on June 7. The AKP currently has a parliamentary majority of 312 seats; to retain their majority, they need at least 276 seats (of 550). They would like to win more seats in order to change the constitution. If they win more than 330 seats, they will be able to propose a referendum to change the Turkish constitution. If they win more than 376, they will be able to change the constitution outright. This article has more details.
The AKP is leading in the polls with around 45% of the vote. The main opposition parties are the CHP with 26% of the vote, the MHP with 16% of the vote, and the HDP with 9% of the vote. Turkey has a unusual mixed proportional representation system, where parties with less than 10% of the vote are eliminated, and their votes are given to the party with the largest share of the vote. Given that, with current poll numbers, the AKP would get about 319 seats (which is about what they got in the last election). If the HDP breaks the 10% threshold, the AKP might not even get a majority.
I think that the AKP will likely get a majority; the polls suggest that this is likely, and it was what happened in the last election. I do not think they will break the 330 or 367 seat thresholds (although they might break the 330-seat threshold if they do especially well in the election. This article (probably from a biased source) suggests that most Turks oppose the AKP's proposed constitutional reforms, which will be a problem for the AKP.
Sunday 1 March 2015
Questions Resolved in January and February
Looking back on January and February, the following questions have resolved:
- Q4 (Sri Lankan Presidential Election) has resolved for Maithripala Sirisena, whom I said had a 70% chance of winning.
- Q5 (Greek Legislative Election) has resolved for SYRIZA, whom I said had a 80% chance of winning.
- For Q13 (Supreme Court Assisted Suicide), the Supreme Court has overturned the current law on assisted suicide, which I said had a 50% chance of happening. The decision was unanimous. This seems like the obvious decision in hindsight, but news coverage of the case did not suggest a particular outcome was more likely. This may be for legal reasons.
- Q37 (Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister) has resolved for Rob Nicholson, whom I said had a 5% chance of winning. This is better than it seems, because I had 9 candidates with a 5% chance of winning. In the future, I am going to restrict questions to 5 options; the 14 options for this question were way too many. This sort of question is probably best approached by grouping candidates in some logical way (perhaps by geographic region).
- For Q40 (845 Carling Approval), the development proposal for 845 Carling was approved by the planning committee unanimously. I said there was an 80% chance of approval. In hindsight, I may have been a bit under-confident; the local councillor and the planning department both approved of this proposal.
- For Q43 (Ukrainian Ceasefire), the ceasefire has not been substantially respected; the fighting in Debaltseve was a violation. I said that the ceasefire had a 80% of being violated. This might have also been under-confident.
Argentinan Election
Q60: Who will win the next Argentinian Presidential Election?
Daniel Scioli: 45%
Sergio Massa: 25%
Mauricio Macri: 15%
Someone Else: 15%
Argentina will be holding a 2-round presidential election in October of this year (see the Wikipedia article). The slate of candidates is not completely clear. The incumbent, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, is ineligible to run again (although some have suggested that this rule be changed). Her party, the Front for Victory, will probably nominate Daniel Scioli. Sergio Massa is a likely opposition candidate who recently left the ruling party. Mauricio Macri is another center-right opposition candidate.
Recent polls have Scioli with an average of 26% of the vote, Massa with 24%, and Macri with 22% (other potential candidates are well back). These polls were taken before the recent protests over the suspicious death of Prosecutor Alberto Nisman, which might hurt Scioli and help the opposition candidates (see the article here). Still, I think that Scioli is the most likely winner, as he is leading in the polls and has the advantage of incumbency. Argentina has had a Kirchener President since 2003. Again based on the polls, Massa is probably the second most likely candidate to win, with Macri third.
Daniel Scioli: 45%
Sergio Massa: 25%
Mauricio Macri: 15%
Someone Else: 15%
Argentina will be holding a 2-round presidential election in October of this year (see the Wikipedia article). The slate of candidates is not completely clear. The incumbent, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, is ineligible to run again (although some have suggested that this rule be changed). Her party, the Front for Victory, will probably nominate Daniel Scioli. Sergio Massa is a likely opposition candidate who recently left the ruling party. Mauricio Macri is another center-right opposition candidate.
Recent polls have Scioli with an average of 26% of the vote, Massa with 24%, and Macri with 22% (other potential candidates are well back). These polls were taken before the recent protests over the suspicious death of Prosecutor Alberto Nisman, which might hurt Scioli and help the opposition candidates (see the article here). Still, I think that Scioli is the most likely winner, as he is leading in the polls and has the advantage of incumbency. Argentina has had a Kirchener President since 2003. Again based on the polls, Massa is probably the second most likely candidate to win, with Macri third.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)