Ontario Prorogation

 Before the end of June 2016, will the government of Ontario prorogue the Ontario legislature?
Yes: 40%

There is some speculation that the government will prorogue the Ontario legislature (see article here).  The government has not denied that it will do so, but has also not indicated that it will.  The article makes it sound like prorogation is almost a sure thing, but I am reluctant to assign a high probability given that most speculated events of this type don't actually happen.

Maple Syrup Quota Quebec

Before the end of March 2017, will the Quebec government officially announce that it is ending its maple syrup quota system?
Yes: 25%

A recent report called for the Quebec government to end its maple syrup quota (see article here).  Some maple syrup producers seem to support the quota, while others seem to be opposed.  My default position in this sort of case is to guess that the current status quo will continue, especially over the relatively short time frame of this question.

Federal Carbon Price

Before the end of March 2017, will the federal government announce a national carbon price?
Yes: 15%
(A federal carbon tax would count, as would a national cap-and-trade system.  The price does not need to made into law or implemented by the end of March 2017)

The federal government recently held a meeting with provincial premiers about the idea of a national carbon price (see articles here and here).  The meeting seems to have been somewhat inconclusive.  At this point, it does not look likely the federal government will proceed with a national carbon price in the near future.

Photo Radar Ottawa

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa ask the government of Ontario for permission to use photo radar?
Yes: 30%

The City of Ottawa is currently considering asking the province for permission to use photo radar (see article here).  The main proponent seems to be councillor Riley Brockington; mayor Jim Watson seems to be opposed.  At this point, I don't think that the city will ultimately end up asking for photo radar, at least this year, but it is possible that they will if there is enough community pressure.

Manitoba Election v2

Which party will the most seats in the next Manitoba provincial election?
PC: 91%
NDP: 5%
Liberal: 4%

Since my last post, the PCs and NDP have slipped slightly in the polls, and the Liberals have gained slightly (see article here).  The PCs still have a substantial lead however, so I am increasing my confidence for a PC win.

Eli El-Chantiry Resignation

Before the end of 2016, will Eli El-Chantiry permanently leave the office of Ottawa Police Services Board Chair?
Yes: 15%

The head of the police union has asked the chair of the police services board, Eli El-Chantiry, to resign (see article here).  El-Chantiry has said he does not plan to resign.  There doesn't seem to be much of a reason for him to do so, so I am giving a low estimate.

Federal Budget Deficit v3

What will be the federal government budget deficit for the 2016-2017 fiscal year, according to the budget as originally tabled?
Less than $20 billion: 15%
Between $20 and $30 billion: 35%
Between $30 and $40 billion: 30%
More than $40 billion: 20%

Since my last post, expectations for the budget deficit seemed to have increased slightly (see article here).  Some have recommended a deficit as large as $40 billion, and the median now seems to be about $30 billion,  I am increasing my estimate accordingly.

Supervised Injection Site Toronto

Before the end of June 2016, will the City Council of Toronto approve public consultations about opening a supervised drug injection site?
Yes: 60%

Toronto's officer of health has called for Toronto to open three supervised drug injection sites (see article here).  The next step seems to be holding public consultations.  Toronto mayor John Tory seems to be vaguely supportive, while the police union is opposed.  I think that public consultations likely will take place, but this does not seem to be completely certain.

Canada Interest Rate April

What will be the result of the April 13th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 20%
Unchanged Rate: 75%
Rate Increase: 5%

The Bank of Canada decided to leave rates unchanged on March 9th (see article here).  The most likely outcome in April seems to be that the Bank will leave rates unchanged, but there seems to be some possibility that rates will be lowered, depending on the amount of stimulus spending in the budget.

Corus-Shaw Deal

Before the end of 2016, will Corus's deal to buy Shaw Media close?
Yes: 75%
(The deal ultimately reached must be substantially similar to the currently proposed deal.  If the current deal is abandoned, this question will close as a "No")

Corus Entertainment has made an offer to buy Shaw Media (see articles here and here).  The deal recently received approval from Corus shareholders, and CRTC approval is expected later this month.  It seems quite likely that the deal will close before the end of the year, given the current pace of events.  Having said that, Bell's previous purchase of Astral media, which was similar in scale, apparently had more than a year of regulatory delays.

OLG Lockout v2

When will an agreement be reached between OLG and its employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway?
Before the end of April: 35%
In May or June: 25%
In July or August: 15%
Not before the end of August 2016: 25%
(In order for the agreement to count, it must be ratified by OLG workers.  However, the relevant date is the date of the agreement being reached, not the date of ratification)

There has still been no settlement to the lockout at Rideau Carleton Raceway (see article here, and my previous post here).  I still think a settlement is likely relatively soon, but I am more pessimistic than I was, given the apparent lack of progress.

Via Federal Rail Car Funding

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will provide at least $1 billion for Via to buy new rail cars?
Yes: 65%

There has been speculation that Via will receive federal funding to buy new rail cars (see article here).  The federal Minister of Transport has hinted, but not confirmed, that there will be funding in the budget.  This seems very likely to happen, but it is possible it might not happen this year.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Global Miscellaneous

• The Islamic State's actions in Palmyra count as destruction, in my view (see my post IS Palmyra).  I said there was a 40% chance of such destruction.  In hindsight, this question was a bit too vague as to what counted as destruction.
• There was a Puerto Rico Default in August.  In May, I said there was a 20% chance of such a default.  I'm not sure if this was too low or not.
• Russia did not withdraw its ambassador to Turkey (see my post Russian Ambassador Turkey).  In November, I said there was a 25% chance of such a withdrawal, which might have been too high.
• There was also no Turkish apology for the downing of the Russian fighter jet (see my post Turkish Apology Russia).  I said there was a 25% chance of this as well.
• There was no US law approving the Keystone XL pipeline in 2015 (see my post Keystone XL Approval).  I said there was a 20% chance of such a law.
• The US repealed its country of origin meat-labelling laws in December (see my post US Meat Labelling Laws).  In May, I said there was a 25% chance of such a repeal in fall 2015, and a 65% chance of a repeal before the end of the year.  I think those estimates were about right.
• I have decided to void my Paris Climate Deal Binding question, as there are differing reports as to whether the deal is binding,  I should have been more specific with this question.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Global Leaders and Elections

• Pierre Nkurunziza has kept the presidency of Burundi (see my post Nkurunziza in Burundi).  In May, I said there was a 35% chance of him leaving office, which may have been too conservative.
• Tammam Salam has remained leader of Lebannon (see my post Tammam Salam Leaving Office).  In August, I said there was a 30% chance he would leave office, which might have been too high, since these leader exit questions rarely trigger.
• The People's Party won the most seats in the Spanish Election.  In June, I said there was a 30% chance of this; I probably overestimated the chances of Podemos winning the most seats at that time.
• The Venezuela election was held on December 6th, and resulted in a victory for the MUD coalition (see my posts Venezuelan Election Date and Venezuelan Election Result).  In June, I said there was a 75% chance that an election would be held in 2015.  In July, I said there was a 70% chance that MUD would win the election.
• As far as I can tell, the For the Love of Egypt bloc won the most seats in the Egyptian Parliamentary Election.  I said there was a 35% chance that this would happen, and this was the most likely outcome according to my scoring.
• There was no Libyan Unity Government in 2015.  In October, I said there was a 20% chance such a government would be formed.

Year-End Post Mortem: Canadian Politics

• The Liberals won the NL Election in December.  In March, I said they had a 90% chance of winning.
• The new House Speaker is Geoff Regan.  I gave him a 20% chance of winning, as I gave two other similar candidates, so this is not a great surprise.
• The government has announced a TFSA Limit Contraction.  In April, I said there was a 20% chance of this happening.  I gave a low estimate at that time because I thought the Conservatives might stay in power, and that whoever replaced them might move slowly or not at all in decreasing the TFSA contribution limit.
• The federal government has agreed to resettle more than 30,000 Syrian refugees (see my post Syrian Refugee Resettlement).  I said there was a 40% chance of this large a number in September, which seems reasonable if a bit low.
• The federal government did not succeed in bringing in 25,000 (or 20,000) Syrian refugees by the end of the year (see my post Syrian Refugee Timing).  In November, I said there was a 65% chance of success.

Year-End Post Mortem: Miscellaneous

• Whole Foods was apparently fined $30,000 for being open on Good Friday (see article here, and my post Whole Foods Fine).  I said there was a 20% chance of a fine larger than $10,000.  This was a very awkward question, because I couldn't find any reference to the fine until well after the question close date; I will choose less obscure questions in the future.
• The Ottawa Airport taxi strike ended in December (see my post Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike v2).  In mid-October, I said there was a 35% chance of it ending in late November or December, and a 65% chance of it ending before the end of 2015.  I think those numbers were approximately reasonable.
• The Ontario government has not required a Beer Store Franchise Fee.  In January 2015, I said there was a 60% chance of such a fee being required.  This was one of those cases where I focussed too much on a single proposed suggestion; the government decided to change the liquor licensing system in other ways instead.
• At the beginning of 2016, both CraveTV and Shomi were available to all Canadians (see my post CraveTV / Shomi Restrictions).  In March 2015, I said there was a 18% chance of this occurring, which might have been too low.  At that time, there were definitely signs that Shomi would expand availability, and that would plausibly force CraveTV to do so also.  On the other hand, this was a very close question; CraveTV only expanded availability at the beginning of the year.
• The BOC interest rate in December was unchanged (see my post Canada Interest Rate December).  I said there was an 80% chance of this occurring, which might have been too low.