Year-End Post-Mortem: Global Leaders and Elections

• Pierre Nkurunziza has kept the presidency of Burundi (see my post Nkurunziza in Burundi).  In May, I said there was a 35% chance of him leaving office, which may have been too conservative.
• Tammam Salam has remained leader of Lebannon (see my post Tammam Salam Leaving Office).  In August, I said there was a 30% chance he would leave office, which might have been too high, since these leader exit questions rarely trigger.
• The People's Party won the most seats in the Spanish Election.  In June, I said there was a 30% chance of this; I probably overestimated the chances of Podemos winning the most seats at that time.
• The Venezuela election was held on December 6th, and resulted in a victory for the MUD coalition (see my posts Venezuelan Election Date and Venezuelan Election Result).  In June, I said there was a 75% chance that an election would be held in 2015.  In July, I said there was a 70% chance that MUD would win the election.
• As far as I can tell, the For the Love of Egypt bloc won the most seats in the Egyptian Parliamentary Election.  I said there was a 35% chance that this would happen, and this was the most likely outcome according to my scoring.
• There was no Libyan Unity Government in 2015.  In October, I said there was a 20% chance such a government would be formed.