Year-End Post Mortem: Federal Policy

• No E-Commerce Sales Tax has been announced.  I said there was a 25% chance of such a tax, which might have been too high
• No enabling legislation involving a National Securities Regulator has been passed.  I said there was a 75% chance of such legislation, which seems much too high in hindsight.
• No significant changes in Supply Management have been announced.  The changes announced in the context of the TPP don't seem significant enough to count for this question.  I said there was a 10% chance of significant changes, which might have been overconfident.  This is one of those vague questions that I've been trying to move away from.
• No law has been passed eliminating Census Jail Time (i.e. jail time for not completing the Census).  I said there was a 20% chance of such a law.
• Construction has not begun on the Victims of Communism Memorial (see my post Victims of Communism Memorial v2).  I said there was a 35% chance of construction starting.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Control

I had a number of questions about who would control various hotspots by the end of the year:

• The Donetsk Airport is still under the control of the Donetsk Rebels.  I said there was a 70% chance of this.
• Mariupol is still under the control of Ukraine (see my post Mariupol Control).  I said there was an 85% chance of this.
• Sana'a is still controlled by the Houthis (see my post Sana'a Control).  I said there was a 75% chance of this.
• Kobani is still controlled by the Kurds (see my post Kobani Control).  I said there was a 65% chance of this.
• Damascus is still controlled by the Syrian government (see my post Damascus Control).  I said there was a 90% chance of this.
• Debaltseve is still controlled by the Donetsk rebels (see my post Debaltseve Control).  I said there was a 77% chance of this.
• Mosul is still controlled by the Islamic State (see my post Mosul Control).  I said there was a 40% chance of this.
• Kunduz is now controlled by the Afghan government (see my post Kunduz Control).  I said there was a 60% chance of this.

It is notable that all of my end of year control questions seem to have resolved in favour of the organization that controlled the city when I created the question.  I may have been slightly under-confident in guessing that the status quo would continue.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Science

• There seems to have been some evidence of  Cyrovolcanism on Pluto and Charon (see articles here and here.)  It is not clear to me if this evidence is "clear" enough to count for this question.  Thus, I have decided to void this question.
• No new Moons of Pluto were found by New Horizons.  I said that there was a 25% chance of no moons being discovered.  I still think the absence of additional moons was rather surprising.
• As far as I can tell, no significant evidence of a liquid ocean has been discovered on Ceres (see my post Ceres Ocean).  I said there was a 75% chance of no discovery.  This question was originally supposed to be resolved by SciCast Predict, but that site is no longer operating.  I believe that the SciCast question was to end at the end of 2015, so I am declaring my question to be closed as well.
• There has been no Scicast Re-Opening in 2015.  I said there was a 40% chance of SciCast Predict not re-opening in 2015.  Obviously, I may have been somewhat optimistic.

Overall, many of my science questions have had serious issues with interpretation; it is hard to come up with questions that could plausibly resolve as either a clear yes or a clear no.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Ottawa Retail

A lot of my questions were scheduled to last until the end of the year.  I'll be going through these questions in the next few weeks.  Today, I'll look at my Ottawa retail questions.

• None of the Target stores in Ottawa were replaced by Giant Tiger, Goodlife Fitness, or Loblaw stores (see my posts Target Stores: Giant Tiger, Target Stores: Goodlife Fitness, and Target Stores: Loblaw).  I gave, respectively, 30%, 30%, and 85% chances of this outcome.  There are also Empty Target Stores, which I said had a 65% chance of happening.  Overall, only 1 of 4 of my "Will this store replace Target?" questions happened (the Walmart one), while I gave average odds of 58%.  I definitely overestimated the odds that specific stores would replace Target.
• All Sears, Chapters/Indigo, and Staples stores in Ottawa remained open through 2015 (see my posts Sears in Ottawa, Chapters/Indigo in Ottawa, and Staples in Ottawa).  My odds were 75%, 70%, and 40%.  As well, the Lincoln Heights Walmart is still open, which I said had a 55% chance of happening.  Overall, of my 5 official "retail closure" questions, only one triggered (the Future Shop/Best Buy one), while I gave an average 36% chance of a closure.  This suggests I might have slightly overestimated the rate of retail closures.

CPP Expansion Agreement

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 25%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Canadian Finance Ministers recently met to discuss CPP expansion, among other issues (see articles here and here).  They decided to hold further meetings in June and December of 2016.  The federal government promised to expand CPP during the last election campaign.  The Ontario government is supportive, while many other provincial governments seem to be opposed, at least to some extent.  In order to expand CPP, at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population need to agree.  Given the current level of opposition, I don't think that this level of support can be obtained, at least in 2016.

Rideau Canal Opening

When will the Rideau Canal Skateway officially open in the 2016 season?
In January: 75%
In February or March: 20%
The Skateway will not open in 2016: 5%
(In order to trigger this question, only part of the Skateway needs to be opened.)

There has been some speculation that the Rideau Canal will not open for skating this year, because of the relatively high temperatures in Ottawa (see articles here and here).  Since 1971, the canal has always opened eventually; the latest it has opened was February 2nd in 2002.  Although temperatures have been higher than normal, and are expected to continue to be so, I still think the canal is likely to open in January (possibly late January), given the past history.  Not opening at all would be very surprising indeed.  Given the past 44 years of data, I think there is only a negligible chance that the canal will fail to open.

Marijuana Conviction Pardons

By the end of 2016, will the federal government announce a large-scale pardon for those convicted of marijuana convictions?
Yes: 40%
(A pardon only needs to be announced by the end of 2016, not implemented.  Not everyone convicted needs to be pardoned, but a significant number of people must be pardoned)

There is some speculation that the new federal government will pardon those with minor marijuana convictions as part of the process of legalization (see article here).  The relevant minister, Jody Wilson-Raybould, has not yet indicated what the government plans to do.  Although some sort of pardon is likely in the medium term, 2016 may be too early for a pardon to occur.

OLG Lockout

When will an agreement be reached between OLG and its employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway?
Before the end of December: 35%
In January: 35%
In February: 15%
Not before the end of February: 15%
(In order for the agreement to count, it must be ratified by OLG workers.  However, the relevant date is the date of the agreement being reached, not the date of ratification)

OLG employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway have been locked out since December 16th, due to the lack of a settlement between them and OLG (see article here).  The reduction in service seems to be fairly modest.  A similar lockout in Brantford earlier this this year lasted three weeks (see story here).  A three-week lockout would last until January 6th, so it seems likely that an agreement will be reached in December or January.  It is conceivable that the lockout could drag on into February or later.

Spanish PM v2

To which party will the next Spanish Prime Minister belong?
People's Party (PP): 40%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 59%
Some Other Party: 1%

The Spanish election has resulted in a plurality, but not a majority, for the conservative People's Party (see article here, and my earlier prediction here).  A conservative coalition does not seem possible, but a left-wing coalition also seems to be difficult to organize.  I think that a left-wing coalition of some type will eventually be cobbled together.

EI Premium Rate 2017

What will be the 2017 EI premium rate?
Less than 1.6%: 10%
1.6-1.7%: 35%
1.7-1.8%: 25%
1.8-1.9%: 20%
More than 1.9%: 10%
(The rate at the beginning of the year shall count if the rate changes through the year)

During the campaign, the Liberals pledged to reduce the EI premium rate in 2017 to 1.65% from the current rate of 1.88% (see articles here and here and historical rates here).  They seem to have backed off on that promise to some extent, while saying that they still plan to lower the rate.  I still think the most likely 2017 rate is 1.65%, but it seems possible that a significantly higher rate will be chosen, or that other events will cause a change in policy.

Gas Plant Scandal Verdict

Will either David Livingston and Laura Miller be found guilty of the criminal offences they have been charged with relating to the gas plants scandal?
Yes: 65%
(A plea bargain counts as a "yes".  If the prosecution abandons the case, that counts as a "no".  This question is only about the most recent criminal charges and the initial outcome of the trial; further charges and appeals do not matter.)

David Livingston and Laura Miller, two senior staffers in former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty's office, have been charged by the OPP with the deletion of records in the gas plant scandal (see story here).  Both maintain their innocence.  The most likely way for this question to resolve is some sort of plea bargain (which counts as a "yes").  It is also possible (if slightly less likely) that the OPP could abandon the case.  If the case goes to trial, I think that at least one of the staffers will be found guilty on at least one charge, although it is possible that they could be found innocent.

GST Increase

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it plans to increase the GST?
Yes: 20%

There seems to be some suggestion that the new government might increase the GST to help deal with its fiscal problems (see article here).  The Liberals have said that they are not considering changes to the GST.  Given that, I think that it is unlikely that the current rate will be changed.

845 Carling Sales Office

Before the end of 2016, will a sales office be opened for The Sky condos at 845 Carling Ave?
Yes: 25%

Richcraft, a local developer, received city approval in February to build a 1100-unit complex near Dow's Lake (see my previous post here).  Since then, they have taken no further action except for putting up a "for lease" sign on the property.  There seems to be some speculation they might be holding off because of the weak condo market, and competition from the nearby Claridge Icon (see forum posts here).  I think that nothing will happen in 2016.

Lebreton Flats Redevelopment

Which Lebreton Flats Redevelopment Proposal will the NCC pick?
The Rendez Vous LeBreton Proposal: 50%
The DCDLS Proposal: 20%
Neither: 30%
(If the NCC makes no decision by the end of 2016, that counts as Neither.  If the NCC picks a single proposal, but later backs out, that will count for that proposal)

Two Lebreton Flats redevelopment proposals have been submitted, both of which apparently include an NHL arena (see article here).  My impression is that the Rendez Vous LeBreton Proposal, which has the explicit cooperation of the Senators, is more likely to succeed than the competing proposal.  Given the limited number of proposals, it also seems quite possible that neither proposal will be accepted.

LCBO Land Sale

By the end of 2016, will the downtown Toronto land currently owned by the LCBO be purchased?
Yes, by Wittington Properties: 35%
Yes, by Someone Else: 50%
No: 15%
(The transaction must close for a yes answer.  In the case of multiple purchasers, "Yes, by Wittington Properties" requires only that Wittington Properties is one of the purchasers.)

Wittington Properties is one of the bidders for the LCBO lands in downtown Toronto (see article here).  There are apparently several other bidders as well.  The transaction is expected to close by March 2016.  Given the other bidders, I think that Wittington Properties will not succeed in buying the LCBO lands, although some other company probably will succeed.

Ottawa Jail Strike

Before the end of April 2016, what will happen regarding Ottawa Detention Centre correctional officers?
A Strike: 25%
A Ratified Agreement, without a Strike: 60%
Neither of the Above: 15%

Ottawa jail workers recently rejected a proposed agreement with the province (see article here).  There seems to be some potential for a strike.  I think that a new agreement will be reached and accepted relatively shortly, without a strike, as that is what usually happens in these sorts of cases.

Federal Budget Deficit

Will the 2016 federal budget deficit be larger than $10 billion?

Yes: 70%

(For the purpose of this question, the initial announced deficit is all that matters)

During the recent federal election campaign, the Liberals promised to run a deficit of no more than $10 billion.  The Liberal government has recently have recently backed away from that promise somewhat (see article here).  Given the current stance of the government, it seems unlikely that the deficit will be less than $10 billion.  Good economic news, or a significant increase in the price of oil, could change this.

Canada Post CEO Resignation

Before the end of February 2016, will current Canada Post CEO Deepak Chopra announce his resignation?
Yes: 35%
(If Chopra leaves office through some other means, that still counts)

The new Liberal government has asked Canada Post CEO Deepak Chopra to resign (see article here).  The Canada Post board of directors has rebuked this call.  My guess is that Chopra probably will not resign; the support he has received from the board of directors seems to be significant.

Staples Merger Case

Will the Competition Bureau case against the merger of Staples and the Office Depot succeed?
Yes: 75%
(If the merger is abandoned before the case is heard, that counts as a yes.  If the Competition Bureau abandons the case without the merger being abandoned, that counts as a no)

The Competition Bureau has challenged Staples's proposed merger with Office Depot, in cooperation with American and European regulators (see article here).  I think that Staples and Office Depot will probably call off the merger in light of the regulatory opposition.  If the merger is not called off, they will probably lose the case at the Competition Tribunal.

MTS Sale

By the end of 2016, will the sale of MTS be announced?
Yes: 15%
(This question will be closed for Yes if a sale closes, or an announced sale is still ongoing at the end of 2016, and closes after that.  This question will close for No if no sale is ongoing at the end of 2016)

There seems to be some speculation that MTS, a Manitoba telecom provider, will be sold, after its sale of Allstream.  MTS itself doesn't seem to be actively seeking a buyer however.  I think that a sale is possible, but unlikely.

Mulcair NDP Leader

Before the end of |April 2016, will Mulcair leave the NDP leadership?

Yes: 65%

(This question will resolve as yes if Mulcair permanently leaves the NDP leadership in any way)

Thomas Mulcair, whose NDP party finished in third place in October's election, will face a leadership review in April (see article here).  Given how poorly Mulcair did in the election relative to expectations, Mulcair will likely face a tough fight to keep the NDP leadership.  I don't think he'll end up succeeding.

Syrian Refugee Timing v2

By the end of February 2016, will the government of Canada bring in at least 24,000 Syrian refugees?
Yes: 60%

The Liberals have delayed their plan to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees to the end of February (see story here, and my previous post here).  It is hard to tell if this new schedule is too optimistic or not; I still think the Liberals are slightly more likely than not to meet the new schedule.

Trump Tower Renaming

Before the end of 2016, will developers rename the Trump Tower in Vancouver?
Yes: 20%
(The renaming must remove Trump's name from the tower. A name like "T tower" would count for this purpose)

Some city councillors have called for the renaming of the Trump Tower in Vancouver, which is currently under construction (see story here).  The developers have not commented so far.  In the absence of their support, renaming the tower seems unlikely, although further developments could cause it to happen.

Conservative Leadership Post-Mortem

• The new Conservative Interim Leader is Rona Ambrose (also see my post Conservative Interim Leader v2).  In my first post, I gave Ambrose a 13% chance of winning the leadership, and she was one of my top four candidates.  In my second post, after a number of other candidates had stepped forward, I did not include her on my list, and gave "Someone Else" only a 10% chance of winning.  I clearly didn't take adequate account of the potential for candidates to enter the race late.  This is one of those somewhat unusual cases where I overreacted to news after my initial prediction.
• The Conservatives decided to allow Senators to vote for party leader (see my post Conservative Senators Voting).  I said there was a 70% chance that this would happen.
• The Conservatives did not give themselves the power to remove the party leader (see my post Conservative Leader Removal).  I said there was a 65% chance that the vote would go this way.  As with the last question, I might have been a bit under-confident.

Miscellaneous Cabinet Post-Mortem

• The Next PM is Liberal (I should have mentioned this question in my Election Post-Mortem).  In July, I said that the Liberals had a 20% chance of forming the next government.
• There is precisely one Ottawa Cabinet Minister (see also my later post Ottawa Cabinet Ministers).  In late September, I said there was a 75% chance of an Ottawa cabinet minister.  After the election, I said there was at a 90% of at least one Ottawa cabinet minister, and a 25% chance of two or more Ottawa cabinet ministers.  If anything, these predictions might have been slightly under-confident.
• Because the NDP did not form the government, a number of my conditional predictions won't be counted (in particular, my posts NDP Finance Minister, NDP Foreign Affairs Minister, NDP Justice Minister, NDP Defence Minister, and Paul Dewar Cabinet Minister)
• The Liberals didn't select a Deputy Prime Minister (the Conservatives didn't either before them), so my prediction about that position won't be counted.

Cabinet Selection Post-Mortem: Analysis

Of the 9 cabinet selection picks that I made (see yesterday's post), none of the candidates that I said was most likely to win won.  On average, I gave the favourite 23% odds, and there was a 10% chance that none of the favourites would have won according to my odds.  This suggests that I slightly overestimated the chance that the most likely-to-win candidate would win.

Of the 9 picks, 6 of them (or 66.6%) were not on my list of candidates.  On average, I gave "Someone Else" a 48% chance of being minister.  According to my odds, "Someone else" would be expected to win by chance 6 or more times about 21% of the time.  Again, I may have been slightly overconfident that my top candidates would win.  It is evidently even harder to predict who will will be in cabinet than I thought.

My Brier score for the cabinet picks was about 0.68, while I would have expected a Brier score of 0.66.  The agreement between these numbers is a sign that my forecasts were reasonably well-calibrated overall.  This comparison is less useful with a "Someone else" category, because "Someone else" winning actually decreases my Brier score (since "Someone else" was always most likely to win), but is hardly the sign of a great prediction.

Cabinet Selection Post-Mortem: Results

• The new Finance Minister is Bill Morneau (see also Finance Minister v2).  In my prediction before the election, I didn't include him in my list of names, but I did give "Someone Else" a 55% chance of being Finance Minister.  In my second prediction, I gave Morneau a 20% chance of being finance minister (he was second on my list)
• The Foreign Affairs Minister is Stéphane Dion.  Before the election, I did not include him in my list of names, but gave "Someone Else" a 60% chance.  Dion was a bit of a surprise pick.
• The Defence Minister is Harjit Sajjan, whom I gave a 10% chance of becoming minister (he was 3rd on my list).
• The Justice Minister is Jody Wilson-Raybould.  I did not include her in my list of names, but gave "someone else" a 45% chance.
• The Industry Minister is Navdeep Bains (although the title has been renamed to Minister of Innovation, Science, and Economic Development).  I did not include him in my list of names, but gave "someone else" a 45% chance
• The Environment Minister is Catherine McKenna.  I did not list her as one of my four candidates, but "Someone Else" did get a 45% chance.  McKenna was a somewhat surprising pick for Environment Minister.
• The Agriculture Minister is Lawrence MacAulay.  I did not list him in my list of top three names, but "someone else" was given a 65% chance of becoming Agriculture Minister.  MacAulay is a somewhat surprising pick, given his rather low profile.
• The Aboriginal Affairs Minister is Carolyn Bennett (although the post has been restyled as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Affairs).  I gave her a 10% chance of becoming minister (she was the last person on my list).

Questions Resolved in November: Election Aftermath

• No Federal Coalition Government has formed.  In April, I said there was a 10% chance of such a government forming.  It is hard to say, given the election results, whether this was a reasonable estimate.
• A Canada Post Moratorium on ceasing home delivery has been announced.  In March, I said there was a 30% chance of such a moratorium.  I'm not convinced that the Liberals would have announced such a moratorium on their own, but Canada Post decided the issue for them.
• The Next Parliamentary Session is starting today, in December.  I said parliament had a 20% chance of reconvening in December, and a 60% chance of reconvening before the end of the year.  I probably should have given more equal odds to reconvening in November and reconvening in December.

Questions Resolved in November: Other

• The Supreme Court overturned Canada's human smuggling law (see my post Supreme Court Human Smuggling).  I said that the Court had a 65% of overturning the law.
• The Supreme Court did not give the Yukon French school board the power to control its own enrolment policy (see my post Yukon French School SC).  I said there was a 40% chance that the Court would make this decision.
• There was no Ottawa Teachers' Strike (also see my post Ottawa Teachers' Strike v2).  In my first post (in May) I said there was a 50% chance of no strike this year.  In my post in July, I lowered that to 40%.  This is one of those relatively rare cases where I moved my odds in the wrong direction as time went on.  Not many of my strike questions have triggered, so I may have overestimated the odds of a strike in this case.
• The Ontario Teachers' Negotiations have successfully concluded.  In July, I said negotiations had a 15% chance of finishing in November or December, and a 80% chance of finishing before the end of the year.  I probably should have gone with a more gradual rate of decline in my odds for this question; as it is, I said it was more than 3 times more likely that negotiations would end in September or October then November or December.
• The implied Hydro One IPO Valuation was between $11.91 billion and $12.5 billion.  I said there was a 25% chance of a valuation in this range.  The range of possible valuations given before the IPO seems to have been fairly accurate.

Questions Resolved in November: Foreign Affairs

• Mauricio Macri won the Argentinian Election (see my second post Argentine Election v2).  I gave him a 15% chance of winning initially in March, which I increased to 35% in June.  I think I may have under-reacted slightly to Macri's significant rise in the polls between those two dates.
• The NLD won the Burmese Election (see my second post Burmese Election v2).  In June, I gave them a 55% chance of winning, which I increased to 73% just before the election.  These estimates may have been overly conservative, given the immense popularity the NLD seemed to enjoy.
• Turkey held another parliamentary election in 2015, which I gave 85% odds to in my post Next Turkish Election Date
• The Portuguese government has lost a confidence vote (see my post Portuguese Confidence Vote).  I said this had a 80% chance of happening.
• The French State of Emergency was extended beyond the end of 2015.  I gave it a 90% chance of happening.

The last three questions were somewhat soft; although the events were unusual in historical context, they were completely expected by the time I made my prediction.