Saturday, 21 February 2015

Debaltseve Control

Q52: By the end of 2015, who will control Debaltseve?
Ukraine: 20%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 77%
Someone else: 3%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control.   "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)

The Ukrainian city of Debaltseve was recently captured by rebel forces, after intense fighting (see the Wikipedia article here).  The city originally came under rebel control in April 2014, but Ukrainian troops re-captured it in late July 2014.

Like the Donetsk Airport, I think that Debaltseve will remain in rebel hands through the end of 2015.  It is probably slightly less likely to be captured than the Donetsk airport, as it is in a more favourable geographic position (see the map here) and time has passed since I made that prediction.

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