Canadian Dollar v2

I am going to make another prediction about the Canadian dollar (Q7 was made previously).
Q41: What will the value of the Canadian Dollar in US Dollars be at the end of 2015?
Less than 80 cents: 50%
Between 80 and 85 cents: 25%
Between 85 and 90 cents: 15%
Greater than 90 cents: 10%
(The Bank of Canada exchange rate on noon of December 31, 2015 shall be used)

The Canadian Dollar is currently worth about 80 cents US (after falling from 85 cents US at the beginning of the year).  As I said in Q7, this is an area where predictions that the dollar will certainly rise or fall are not well-justified.  So my median prediction for the end of 2015 is now 80 cents.

Looking at the past 10 years of exchange rate data, the change in the exchange rate would have been sufficient to move the Canadian Dollar above 85 cents in 2.5 out of the last 10 years, and above 90 cents in 1 out of the last 10 years.  I will use those numbers for my estimates.