Ukrainian Ceasefire

Q43: Will the Ukrainian ceasefire agreed to on February 12, 2015 be substantially respected by both parties before May 1st, 2015?
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
(Minor violations will not count.  The ceasefire is all that matters for this question; the rest of the agreement is not relevant)

In the Minsk agreement reached today, the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian rebels agreed to a ceasefire starting on February 15.  A previous ceasefire in September failed to stop the fighting.  There seems to be substantial skepticism that today's agreement will be honored from the White House and other sources.  It seems that there is still substantial fighting going on, which is not a good sign.

I think that it is rather unlikely that the current ceasefire will work; there seem to be few signs that it will.  It does not seem very different from the failed September ceasefire.