Year-End Post Mortem: Federal Policy

• No E-Commerce Sales Tax has been announced.  I said there was a 25% chance of such a tax, which might have been too high
• No enabling legislation involving a National Securities Regulator has been passed.  I said there was a 75% chance of such legislation, which seems much too high in hindsight.
• No significant changes in Supply Management have been announced.  The changes announced in the context of the TPP don't seem significant enough to count for this question.  I said there was a 10% chance of significant changes, which might have been overconfident.  This is one of those vague questions that I've been trying to move away from.
• No law has been passed eliminating Census Jail Time (i.e. jail time for not completing the Census).  I said there was a 20% chance of such a law.
• Construction has not begun on the Victims of Communism Memorial (see my post Victims of Communism Memorial v2).  I said there was a 35% chance of construction starting.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Control

I had a number of questions about who would control various hotspots by the end of the year:

• The Donetsk Airport is still under the control of the Donetsk Rebels.  I said there was a 70% chance of this.
• Mariupol is still under the control of Ukraine (see my post Mariupol Control).  I said there was an 85% chance of this.
• Sana'a is still controlled by the Houthis (see my post Sana'a Control).  I said there was a 75% chance of this.
• Kobani is still controlled by the Kurds (see my post Kobani Control).  I said there was a 65% chance of this.
• Damascus is still controlled by the Syrian government (see my post Damascus Control).  I said there was a 90% chance of this.
• Debaltseve is still controlled by the Donetsk rebels (see my post Debaltseve Control).  I said there was a 77% chance of this.
• Mosul is still controlled by the Islamic State (see my post Mosul Control).  I said there was a 40% chance of this.
• Kunduz is now controlled by the Afghan government (see my post Kunduz Control).  I said there was a 60% chance of this.

It is notable that all of my end of year control questions seem to have resolved in favour of the organization that controlled the city when I created the question.  I may have been slightly under-confident in guessing that the status quo would continue.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Science

• There seems to have been some evidence of  Cyrovolcanism on Pluto and Charon (see articles here and here.)  It is not clear to me if this evidence is "clear" enough to count for this question.  Thus, I have decided to void this question.
• No new Moons of Pluto were found by New Horizons.  I said that there was a 25% chance of no moons being discovered.  I still think the absence of additional moons was rather surprising.
• As far as I can tell, no significant evidence of a liquid ocean has been discovered on Ceres (see my post Ceres Ocean).  I said there was a 75% chance of no discovery.  This question was originally supposed to be resolved by SciCast Predict, but that site is no longer operating.  I believe that the SciCast question was to end at the end of 2015, so I am declaring my question to be closed as well.
• There has been no Scicast Re-Opening in 2015.  I said there was a 40% chance of SciCast Predict not re-opening in 2015.  Obviously, I may have been somewhat optimistic.

Overall, many of my science questions have had serious issues with interpretation; it is hard to come up with questions that could plausibly resolve as either a clear yes or a clear no.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Ottawa Retail

A lot of my questions were scheduled to last until the end of the year.  I'll be going through these questions in the next few weeks.  Today, I'll look at my Ottawa retail questions.

• None of the Target stores in Ottawa were replaced by Giant Tiger, Goodlife Fitness, or Loblaw stores (see my posts Target Stores: Giant Tiger, Target Stores: Goodlife Fitness, and Target Stores: Loblaw).  I gave, respectively, 30%, 30%, and 85% chances of this outcome.  There are also Empty Target Stores, which I said had a 65% chance of happening.  Overall, only 1 of 4 of my "Will this store replace Target?" questions happened (the Walmart one), while I gave average odds of 58%.  I definitely overestimated the odds that specific stores would replace Target.
• All Sears, Chapters/Indigo, and Staples stores in Ottawa remained open through 2015 (see my posts Sears in Ottawa, Chapters/Indigo in Ottawa, and Staples in Ottawa).  My odds were 75%, 70%, and 40%.  As well, the Lincoln Heights Walmart is still open, which I said had a 55% chance of happening.  Overall, of my 5 official "retail closure" questions, only one triggered (the Future Shop/Best Buy one), while I gave an average 36% chance of a closure.  This suggests I might have slightly overestimated the rate of retail closures.

CPP Expansion Agreement

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 25%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Canadian Finance Ministers recently met to discuss CPP expansion, among other issues (see articles here and here).  They decided to hold further meetings in June and December of 2016.  The federal government promised to expand CPP during the last election campaign.  The Ontario government is supportive, while many other provincial governments seem to be opposed, at least to some extent.  In order to expand CPP, at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population need to agree.  Given the current level of opposition, I don't think that this level of support can be obtained, at least in 2016.

Rideau Canal Opening

When will the Rideau Canal Skateway officially open in the 2016 season?
In January: 75%
In February or March: 20%
The Skateway will not open in 2016: 5%
(In order to trigger this question, only part of the Skateway needs to be opened.)

There has been some speculation that the Rideau Canal will not open for skating this year, because of the relatively high temperatures in Ottawa (see articles here and here).  Since 1971, the canal has always opened eventually; the latest it has opened was February 2nd in 2002.  Although temperatures have been higher than normal, and are expected to continue to be so, I still think the canal is likely to open in January (possibly late January), given the past history.  Not opening at all would be very surprising indeed.  Given the past 44 years of data, I think there is only a negligible chance that the canal will fail to open.

Marijuana Conviction Pardons

By the end of 2016, will the federal government announce a large-scale pardon for those convicted of marijuana convictions?
Yes: 40%
(A pardon only needs to be announced by the end of 2016, not implemented.  Not everyone convicted needs to be pardoned, but a significant number of people must be pardoned)

There is some speculation that the new federal government will pardon those with minor marijuana convictions as part of the process of legalization (see article here).  The relevant minister, Jody Wilson-Raybould, has not yet indicated what the government plans to do.  Although some sort of pardon is likely in the medium term, 2016 may be too early for a pardon to occur.

OLG Lockout

When will an agreement be reached between OLG and its employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway?
Before the end of December: 35%
In January: 35%
In February: 15%
Not before the end of February: 15%
(In order for the agreement to count, it must be ratified by OLG workers.  However, the relevant date is the date of the agreement being reached, not the date of ratification)

OLG employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway have been locked out since December 16th, due to the lack of a settlement between them and OLG (see article here).  The reduction in service seems to be fairly modest.  A similar lockout in Brantford earlier this this year lasted three weeks (see story here).  A three-week lockout would last until January 6th, so it seems likely that an agreement will be reached in December or January.  It is conceivable that the lockout could drag on into February or later.

Spanish PM v2

To which party will the next Spanish Prime Minister belong?
People's Party (PP): 40%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 59%
Some Other Party: 1%

The Spanish election has resulted in a plurality, but not a majority, for the conservative People's Party (see article here, and my earlier prediction here).  A conservative coalition does not seem possible, but a left-wing coalition also seems to be difficult to organize.  I think that a left-wing coalition of some type will eventually be cobbled together.

EI Premium Rate 2017

What will be the 2017 EI premium rate?
Less than 1.6%: 10%
1.6-1.7%: 35%
1.7-1.8%: 25%
1.8-1.9%: 20%
More than 1.9%: 10%
(The rate at the beginning of the year shall count if the rate changes through the year)

During the campaign, the Liberals pledged to reduce the EI premium rate in 2017 to 1.65% from the current rate of 1.88% (see articles here and here and historical rates here).  They seem to have backed off on that promise to some extent, while saying that they still plan to lower the rate.  I still think the most likely 2017 rate is 1.65%, but it seems possible that a significantly higher rate will be chosen, or that other events will cause a change in policy.

Gas Plant Scandal Verdict

Will either David Livingston and Laura Miller be found guilty of the criminal offences they have been charged with relating to the gas plants scandal?
Yes: 65%
(A plea bargain counts as a "yes".  If the prosecution abandons the case, that counts as a "no".  This question is only about the most recent criminal charges and the initial outcome of the trial; further charges and appeals do not matter.)

David Livingston and Laura Miller, two senior staffers in former Ontario premier Dalton McGuinty's office, have been charged by the OPP with the deletion of records in the gas plant scandal (see story here).  Both maintain their innocence.  The most likely way for this question to resolve is some sort of plea bargain (which counts as a "yes").  It is also possible (if slightly less likely) that the OPP could abandon the case.  If the case goes to trial, I think that at least one of the staffers will be found guilty on at least one charge, although it is possible that they could be found innocent.

GST Increase

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it plans to increase the GST?
Yes: 20%

There seems to be some suggestion that the new government might increase the GST to help deal with its fiscal problems (see article here).  The Liberals have said that they are not considering changes to the GST.  Given that, I think that it is unlikely that the current rate will be changed.

845 Carling Sales Office

Before the end of 2016, will a sales office be opened for The Sky condos at 845 Carling Ave?
Yes: 25%

Richcraft, a local developer, received city approval in February to build a 1100-unit complex near Dow's Lake (see my previous post here).  Since then, they have taken no further action except for putting up a "for lease" sign on the property.  There seems to be some speculation they might be holding off because of the weak condo market, and competition from the nearby Claridge Icon (see forum posts here).  I think that nothing will happen in 2016.

Lebreton Flats Redevelopment

Which Lebreton Flats Redevelopment Proposal will the NCC pick?
The Rendez Vous LeBreton Proposal: 50%
The DCDLS Proposal: 20%
Neither: 30%
(If the NCC makes no decision by the end of 2016, that counts as Neither.  If the NCC picks a single proposal, but later backs out, that will count for that proposal)

Two Lebreton Flats redevelopment proposals have been submitted, both of which apparently include an NHL arena (see article here).  My impression is that the Rendez Vous LeBreton Proposal, which has the explicit cooperation of the Senators, is more likely to succeed than the competing proposal.  Given the limited number of proposals, it also seems quite possible that neither proposal will be accepted.

LCBO Land Sale

By the end of 2016, will the downtown Toronto land currently owned by the LCBO be purchased?
Yes, by Wittington Properties: 35%
Yes, by Someone Else: 50%
No: 15%
(The transaction must close for a yes answer.  In the case of multiple purchasers, "Yes, by Wittington Properties" requires only that Wittington Properties is one of the purchasers.)

Wittington Properties is one of the bidders for the LCBO lands in downtown Toronto (see article here).  There are apparently several other bidders as well.  The transaction is expected to close by March 2016.  Given the other bidders, I think that Wittington Properties will not succeed in buying the LCBO lands, although some other company probably will succeed.

Ottawa Jail Strike

Before the end of April 2016, what will happen regarding Ottawa Detention Centre correctional officers?
A Strike: 25%
A Ratified Agreement, without a Strike: 60%
Neither of the Above: 15%

Ottawa jail workers recently rejected a proposed agreement with the province (see article here).  There seems to be some potential for a strike.  I think that a new agreement will be reached and accepted relatively shortly, without a strike, as that is what usually happens in these sorts of cases.

Federal Budget Deficit

Will the 2016 federal budget deficit be larger than $10 billion?

Yes: 70%

(For the purpose of this question, the initial announced deficit is all that matters)

During the recent federal election campaign, the Liberals promised to run a deficit of no more than $10 billion.  The Liberal government has recently have recently backed away from that promise somewhat (see article here).  Given the current stance of the government, it seems unlikely that the deficit will be less than $10 billion.  Good economic news, or a significant increase in the price of oil, could change this.

Canada Post CEO Resignation

Before the end of February 2016, will current Canada Post CEO Deepak Chopra announce his resignation?
Yes: 35%
(If Chopra leaves office through some other means, that still counts)

The new Liberal government has asked Canada Post CEO Deepak Chopra to resign (see article here).  The Canada Post board of directors has rebuked this call.  My guess is that Chopra probably will not resign; the support he has received from the board of directors seems to be significant.

Staples Merger Case

Will the Competition Bureau case against the merger of Staples and the Office Depot succeed?
Yes: 75%
(If the merger is abandoned before the case is heard, that counts as a yes.  If the Competition Bureau abandons the case without the merger being abandoned, that counts as a no)

The Competition Bureau has challenged Staples's proposed merger with Office Depot, in cooperation with American and European regulators (see article here).  I think that Staples and Office Depot will probably call off the merger in light of the regulatory opposition.  If the merger is not called off, they will probably lose the case at the Competition Tribunal.

MTS Sale

By the end of 2016, will the sale of MTS be announced?
Yes: 15%
(This question will be closed for Yes if a sale closes, or an announced sale is still ongoing at the end of 2016, and closes after that.  This question will close for No if no sale is ongoing at the end of 2016)

There seems to be some speculation that MTS, a Manitoba telecom provider, will be sold, after its sale of Allstream.  MTS itself doesn't seem to be actively seeking a buyer however.  I think that a sale is possible, but unlikely.

Mulcair NDP Leader

Before the end of |April 2016, will Mulcair leave the NDP leadership?

Yes: 65%

(This question will resolve as yes if Mulcair permanently leaves the NDP leadership in any way)

Thomas Mulcair, whose NDP party finished in third place in October's election, will face a leadership review in April (see article here).  Given how poorly Mulcair did in the election relative to expectations, Mulcair will likely face a tough fight to keep the NDP leadership.  I don't think he'll end up succeeding.

Syrian Refugee Timing v2

By the end of February 2016, will the government of Canada bring in at least 24,000 Syrian refugees?
Yes: 60%

The Liberals have delayed their plan to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees to the end of February (see story here, and my previous post here).  It is hard to tell if this new schedule is too optimistic or not; I still think the Liberals are slightly more likely than not to meet the new schedule.

Trump Tower Renaming

Before the end of 2016, will developers rename the Trump Tower in Vancouver?
Yes: 20%
(The renaming must remove Trump's name from the tower. A name like "T tower" would count for this purpose)

Some city councillors have called for the renaming of the Trump Tower in Vancouver, which is currently under construction (see story here).  The developers have not commented so far.  In the absence of their support, renaming the tower seems unlikely, although further developments could cause it to happen.

Conservative Leadership Post-Mortem

• The new Conservative Interim Leader is Rona Ambrose (also see my post Conservative Interim Leader v2).  In my first post, I gave Ambrose a 13% chance of winning the leadership, and she was one of my top four candidates.  In my second post, after a number of other candidates had stepped forward, I did not include her on my list, and gave "Someone Else" only a 10% chance of winning.  I clearly didn't take adequate account of the potential for candidates to enter the race late.  This is one of those somewhat unusual cases where I overreacted to news after my initial prediction.
• The Conservatives decided to allow Senators to vote for party leader (see my post Conservative Senators Voting).  I said there was a 70% chance that this would happen.
• The Conservatives did not give themselves the power to remove the party leader (see my post Conservative Leader Removal).  I said there was a 65% chance that the vote would go this way.  As with the last question, I might have been a bit under-confident.

Miscellaneous Cabinet Post-Mortem

• The Next PM is Liberal (I should have mentioned this question in my Election Post-Mortem).  In July, I said that the Liberals had a 20% chance of forming the next government.
• There is precisely one Ottawa Cabinet Minister (see also my later post Ottawa Cabinet Ministers).  In late September, I said there was a 75% chance of an Ottawa cabinet minister.  After the election, I said there was at a 90% of at least one Ottawa cabinet minister, and a 25% chance of two or more Ottawa cabinet ministers.  If anything, these predictions might have been slightly under-confident.
• Because the NDP did not form the government, a number of my conditional predictions won't be counted (in particular, my posts NDP Finance Minister, NDP Foreign Affairs Minister, NDP Justice Minister, NDP Defence Minister, and Paul Dewar Cabinet Minister)
• The Liberals didn't select a Deputy Prime Minister (the Conservatives didn't either before them), so my prediction about that position won't be counted.

Cabinet Selection Post-Mortem: Analysis

Of the 9 cabinet selection picks that I made (see yesterday's post), none of the candidates that I said was most likely to win won.  On average, I gave the favourite 23% odds, and there was a 10% chance that none of the favourites would have won according to my odds.  This suggests that I slightly overestimated the chance that the most likely-to-win candidate would win.

Of the 9 picks, 6 of them (or 66.6%) were not on my list of candidates.  On average, I gave "Someone Else" a 48% chance of being minister.  According to my odds, "Someone else" would be expected to win by chance 6 or more times about 21% of the time.  Again, I may have been slightly overconfident that my top candidates would win.  It is evidently even harder to predict who will will be in cabinet than I thought.

My Brier score for the cabinet picks was about 0.68, while I would have expected a Brier score of 0.66.  The agreement between these numbers is a sign that my forecasts were reasonably well-calibrated overall.  This comparison is less useful with a "Someone else" category, because "Someone else" winning actually decreases my Brier score (since "Someone else" was always most likely to win), but is hardly the sign of a great prediction.

Cabinet Selection Post-Mortem: Results

• The new Finance Minister is Bill Morneau (see also Finance Minister v2).  In my prediction before the election, I didn't include him in my list of names, but I did give "Someone Else" a 55% chance of being Finance Minister.  In my second prediction, I gave Morneau a 20% chance of being finance minister (he was second on my list)
• The Foreign Affairs Minister is Stéphane Dion.  Before the election, I did not include him in my list of names, but gave "Someone Else" a 60% chance.  Dion was a bit of a surprise pick.
• The Defence Minister is Harjit Sajjan, whom I gave a 10% chance of becoming minister (he was 3rd on my list).
• The Justice Minister is Jody Wilson-Raybould.  I did not include her in my list of names, but gave "someone else" a 45% chance.
• The Industry Minister is Navdeep Bains (although the title has been renamed to Minister of Innovation, Science, and Economic Development).  I did not include him in my list of names, but gave "someone else" a 45% chance
• The Environment Minister is Catherine McKenna.  I did not list her as one of my four candidates, but "Someone Else" did get a 45% chance.  McKenna was a somewhat surprising pick for Environment Minister.
• The Agriculture Minister is Lawrence MacAulay.  I did not list him in my list of top three names, but "someone else" was given a 65% chance of becoming Agriculture Minister.  MacAulay is a somewhat surprising pick, given his rather low profile.
• The Aboriginal Affairs Minister is Carolyn Bennett (although the post has been restyled as Minister of Indigenous and Northern Affairs).  I gave her a 10% chance of becoming minister (she was the last person on my list).

Questions Resolved in November: Election Aftermath

• No Federal Coalition Government has formed.  In April, I said there was a 10% chance of such a government forming.  It is hard to say, given the election results, whether this was a reasonable estimate.
• A Canada Post Moratorium on ceasing home delivery has been announced.  In March, I said there was a 30% chance of such a moratorium.  I'm not convinced that the Liberals would have announced such a moratorium on their own, but Canada Post decided the issue for them.
• The Next Parliamentary Session is starting today, in December.  I said parliament had a 20% chance of reconvening in December, and a 60% chance of reconvening before the end of the year.  I probably should have given more equal odds to reconvening in November and reconvening in December.

Questions Resolved in November: Other

• The Supreme Court overturned Canada's human smuggling law (see my post Supreme Court Human Smuggling).  I said that the Court had a 65% of overturning the law.
• The Supreme Court did not give the Yukon French school board the power to control its own enrolment policy (see my post Yukon French School SC).  I said there was a 40% chance that the Court would make this decision.
• There was no Ottawa Teachers' Strike (also see my post Ottawa Teachers' Strike v2).  In my first post (in May) I said there was a 50% chance of no strike this year.  In my post in July, I lowered that to 40%.  This is one of those relatively rare cases where I moved my odds in the wrong direction as time went on.  Not many of my strike questions have triggered, so I may have overestimated the odds of a strike in this case.
• The Ontario Teachers' Negotiations have successfully concluded.  In July, I said negotiations had a 15% chance of finishing in November or December, and a 80% chance of finishing before the end of the year.  I probably should have gone with a more gradual rate of decline in my odds for this question; as it is, I said it was more than 3 times more likely that negotiations would end in September or October then November or December.
• The implied Hydro One IPO Valuation was between $11.91 billion and $12.5 billion.  I said there was a 25% chance of a valuation in this range.  The range of possible valuations given before the IPO seems to have been fairly accurate.

Questions Resolved in November: Foreign Affairs

• Mauricio Macri won the Argentinian Election (see my second post Argentine Election v2).  I gave him a 15% chance of winning initially in March, which I increased to 35% in June.  I think I may have under-reacted slightly to Macri's significant rise in the polls between those two dates.
• The NLD won the Burmese Election (see my second post Burmese Election v2).  In June, I gave them a 55% chance of winning, which I increased to 73% just before the election.  These estimates may have been overly conservative, given the immense popularity the NLD seemed to enjoy.
• Turkey held another parliamentary election in 2015, which I gave 85% odds to in my post Next Turkish Election Date
• The Portuguese government has lost a confidence vote (see my post Portuguese Confidence Vote).  I said this had a 80% chance of happening.
• The French State of Emergency was extended beyond the end of 2015.  I gave it a 90% chance of happening.

The last three questions were somewhat soft; although the events were unusual in historical context, they were completely expected by the time I made my prediction.

Calgary Airport Renaming

Before the end of 2016, will the Calgary International Airport be renamed after Stephen Harper?
Yes: 5%
(An official announcement that the renaming will take place is sufficient)

A recent online petition has called for the Calgary airport to be renamed after former Prime Minister Stephen Harper (see story here).  This petition seems to lack any official support, and it would be somewhat unusual to rename an airport after a current political figure like this.  Having said that, it is quite possible that the airport could be renamed after Harper in the long term, and it could happen in the short term if circumstances change.

Conservative Permanent Leader

Who will be the next permanent leader of the federal Conservative party?
Jason Kenney: 30%
Lisa Raitt: 15%
Maxime Bernier: 10%
Brad Wall: 10%
Someone else: 35%

There are a number of possible candidates for the leadership of the Conservatives (see article here).  Jason Kenney, the former defence minister, seems to be the current frontrunner.  Lisa Raitt is often mentioned as a potential candidate, and is currently in a senior role as opposition critic for Finance.  Maxime Bernier has expressed interest in running (see article here).  Brad Wall, the current Saskatchewan premier, has repeatedly denied being interested in running, but is persistently rumoured to be a candidate (see story here).  At this point, there are other potential candidates as well, including the current interim leader Rona Ambrose.

Turkish Apology Russsia

By the end of 2015, will Turkey apologize for the downing of a Russian fighter jet?
Yes: 25%

Russia has asked for Turkey to apologize for the recent downing of a Russian fighter jet, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to do so (see story here).  I think that Erdogan will stick to his guns, and no apology will be forthcoming, but the situation seems to be changing rapidly.

Salah Abdeslam Apprehension

When will Salah Abdeslam be apprehended by the authorities?
Before December 5th: 30%
Between December 5th and the end of December: 30%
Not before the end of December: 40%
(If Salah Abdeslam dies, that counts as a apprehension, as long as the authorities are in possession of his body.  This question will be based on local time in the country of apprehension)

Salah Abdeslam is a key suspect in the November 13th Paris attacks (see article here).  A manhunt for him in Belgium seems to have failed to find him so far, and the authorities do not seem terribly close to finding him.  I think the most likely outcome is that he will not be found before the end of the year, but it is possible that he could be found in the next week, or later in December.

Paris Climate Deal Binding

Will the Paris climate talks result in a legally binding agreement including the US?
Yes: 20%
(If the talks fail to reach any agreement by the end of 2015, the question will resolve as "No" .  The deal does not need to be approved by all countries, and does not need to receive legislative approval for a "Yes")

There seems to be some debate over whether the proposed Paris climate deal will be legally binding (see article here).  The EU seems to be pushing for the deal to be legally binding, while the US is opposed to a legally binding treaty.  The Kyoto Protocol was legally binding (although the US did not agree to it) , while the Copenhagen Accord was not legally binding.  My guess is that the Paris talks will not result in a legally binding agreement, as US opposition to such an agreement seems to be considerable.

Canada Interest Rate December

What will be the result of the December 2nd Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 15%
Unchanged Rate: 80%
Rate Increase: 5%

The next interest rate announcement will take place on December 2nd.  The expectation seems to be that rates will stay the same, or perhaps fall further (see story here).  A rate increase seems to be very unlikely at this point.  I am going with the same odds I used in my October prediction.

Russian Ambassador Turkey

Before the end of 2015, will Russia recall its ambassador from Turkey?
Yes: 25%

Relations between Russia and Turkey have been strained by the recent shoot-down of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish forces (see article here).  Putin has warned that the event will have "significant consequences".  One of those consequences could be the recall of the Russian ambassador from Turkey.  This would be a significant escalation, so I think that it is less likely than not, although still quite possible.

Islamist Terrorism in the EU

Before the end of 2015, will there be another lethal Islamist terrorist attack in the EU?
Yes: 25%
(To count, the attack must result in the death of at least 3 people, not including the perpetrators)

There seems to be some fear of other terrorist attacks after the recent attack in Paris (see article here).  The statistical base rate of such attacks is rather low; there have been 3 such attacks in the last 2 years, corresponding to a 14% base rate estimate before the end of the year (see Wikipedia article here).  Longer time periods yield even lower estimates.  Still, I think the recent attack in Paris does increase the odds slightly over the base rate.

Ottawa Shootings v2

Will the number of shootings in the City of Ottawa in 2015 be higher or equal to the number in 2014 (49)?
Yes: 40%

There have been a number of recent shooting incidents in Ottawa in recent weeks (see article here and my previous prediction here).  The total for the year is now 40, which is still not on pace to reach last year's record of 49 (about 45 shootings would be expected given the pace set so far this year), although it is higher than I would have expected at the beginning of year.  The statistical base rate estimate would be around 6% (based on the current rate so far this year, and a Poisson distribution for the number of shootings).  However, there may be an underlying reason for the high number of incidents in recent weeks, so I am going with a higher estimate.

CP-NS Merger

By the end of 2016, will Canadian Pacific and Norfolk Southern have merged or be in the process of merging?
Yes: 20%
(To be in the progress of merging, both companies must have agreed to the merger.  Not all regulatory decisions need to have been made, but those that have been made must be favourable to the merger.  The merger deal does not need to be the present one.)

Canadian Pacific has made an offer to acquire Norfolk Southern (see articles here and here).  Norfolk Southern management does not seem to be too positive on the deal, and there seem to be significant regulatory hurdles in both the US and Canada.  Last year, CP tried and failed to buy CSX, and CN's attempt to buy BNSF in 2000 ultimately failed to gain regulatory approval.  I think the likely best outcome for this deal is that it will still be in the regulatory process by the end of 2016.

Assisted Suicide Law v2

Before February 6th, 2016, what will happen with regards to Canada's assisted suicide law?
A new law will be passed regulating assisted suicide: 25%
The current law will be extended by the Supreme Court: 50%
The current law will expire: 25%

On February 6th, 2016, the current law regarding assisted suicide is set to expire, as per February's Supreme Court decision (see my previous post here, and the editorial here).  The government is currently considering what to do, and has not ruled out asking the Supreme Court to extend the current law to allow more time for a new one to be drafted.  I think that the government will probably make this request, and it will be granted additional time to draft a new law.  Having said that, a wide variety of potential outcomes are possible, especially if the Supreme Court turns down the government's request for an extension.

Syrian Airstrikes Canada

Will the government of Canada cease air strikes in Syria before the end of March 2016?
Yes: 75%

The new government has repeatedly pledged to end air strikes in Syria by the end of March (see articles here and here).  There has been some pressure on the government to continue air strikes in light of the recent attacks in France.  My sense is that the government will keep their pledge to end air strikes; if they were going to reverse themselves, they probably would have already done so.

House Speaker

Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Commons?
Mauril Bélanger: 20%
Denis Paradis: 20%
Geoff Regan: 20%
Yasmin Ratansi: 15%
Someone Else: 25%

A number of candidates have put their names forward to be Speaker of the House of the Commons (see article here).  The four candidates seem to be Mauril Bélanger, Denis Paradis, Geoff Regan, and Yasmin Ratansi.  Paradis, Bélanger, and Regan are all long-time MPs who have served in junior roles in cabinet; they seem about equally likely to win.  Yasmin Ratansi seems slightly less accomplished, although she has served as Deputy Whip.  I suspect that there could still be other candidates as well.

Syrian Refugee Timing

By the end of 2015, will the government of Canada bring in at least 20,000 Syrian refugees?
Yes: 65%
(The refugees must actually be in Canada to count for the purposes of this question)

The government of Canada has promised to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of the year (see article here).  Some have expressed concern about the short timeline, but the government has reiterated their commitment to bring in the refugees by the end of the year.  I think that most of the refugees will indeed be in the country by the end of the year, but significant delays are possible.

French State of Emergency

Will the French parliament decide to extend the current state of emergency beyond the end of 2015?
Yes: 90%

Following the terrorist attacks on Friday, the French government declared a temporary state of emergency (see articles here and here).  The government is asking the French parliament to extend the state of emergency for another three months.  As far as I can tell, parliament is very likely to agree to this request; I've seen no evidence that it is particularly controversial, although it does not seem to be in line with historical practice.

Overall Riding Prediction Performance

Overall, my predictions for Ottawa ridings were generally not that accurate.  The Brier score for my initial round of predictions was 0.61, versus an expected Brier score of 0.28 (lower is better for Brier scores).  This suggests that I was overconfident in some of my predictions.  In fact, if I had just given 50% odds to the top two parties, I would have gotten a Brier score of 0.56 (I initially put the Liberals as the third most likely party to win in Gatineau, so the average Brier score would be above 0.5).  Having said that, since my riding errors were so heavily correlated (i.e. I consistently underestimated the Liberals), my first round of predictions were closer to a single prediction underestimating the Liberals than a bunch of independent incorrect predictions.  This limits the strength of the conclusion I can draw.

I did much better in my second round of predictions, achieving a Brier score of 0.33 versus an expected score of 0.31.  My second round predictions were evidently much better calibrated and more accurate.  I evidently underestimated the importance of changes in the polls during the campaign.

Election-Related Post-Mortem: Quebec and Rural Ridings

• The Liberals won in Hull—Aylmer (see also Hull-Alymer v2).  I initially gave them 13% odds, which I later increased to 45%
• The Liberals won in Gatineau (see also Gatineau v2).  I initially gave them 2% odds (I actually thought they were less likely to win then the BQ), which I later increased to 15%
• The Liberals won in Pontiac (see also Pontiac v2).  I initially gave them 12% odds, which I later increased to 65%.
• The Liberals won in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell (see also Glengarry—Prescott—Russell v2).  My odds went from 35% to 70%.
• The Conservatives won in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry.  I gave them 90% odds.
• The Conservatives won in Leeds—Grenville.  I gave them 90% odds there as well.
• The Conservatives won in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston.  I gave them 92% odds.
• The Conservatives won in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke.  I gave them 94% odds.
• The NDP won in Outremont.  I gave them a 65% chance of winning there.

The biggest miss was definitely in Gatineau.  The NDP won in 2011 in Gatineau with almost 62% of the vote, and they had a very strong candidate in Françoise Boivin.  The size of the vote swing there was much larger than I expected, and rather surprising.

Election-Related Post-Mortem: Ottawa Ridings

• The Liberals won in Ottawa Centre (see also Ottawa Centre v2).  I originally gave them a 4% chance of winning, which I later increased to 30%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa-Vanier (see also Ottawa-Vanier v2).  My odds went from 90% to 97%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa-West Nepean (see also Ottawa-West Nepean v2).  My odds went from 55% to 90%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa South (see also Ottawa South v2).  My odds went from 95% to 99%.
• The Liberals won in Orleans (see also Orleans v2).  My odds went from 70% to 87%.
• The Liberals won in Nepean (see also Nepean v2).  My odds went from 25% to 65%.
• The Liberals won in Kanata-Carleton (see also Kanata-Carleton v2).  My odds went from 20% to 72%.
• The Conservatives won in Carleton (see also Carleton v2).  My odds went from 90% to 85%.

The most significant miss was definitely in Ottawa Centre, although I think it was justifiable in context.

Election Related Post-Mortem: National Results

• The Liberals won a majority in the federal election.  In my first post in January, Federal Election Result, I gave a Liberal majority a 20% chance, and a Liberal government a 60% chance.  In my second post in April, Federal Election Result v2, I gave a Liberal majority a 10% chance. and a Liberal government a 40% chance.  In my third post in May, Federal Election Result v3, I stayed with the 10% chance for a Liberal majority, but decreased the chance of a Liberal government to 30%.  I don't think these numbers were too far off; the Liberal surge late in the campaign was genuinely surprising.
• The party that won the most seats is indeed forming the government (see my post Next Government Plurality).  I said this had a 93% chance of happening.  This question would have been more interesting under a minority government scenario
• The Federal Election Voter Turnnout was 68.5%.  I gave 5% odds to a turnout higher than 65%.  I was definitely somewhat overconfident about this question, although the model I used suggested I should have been even more confident (I was justifiably somewhat sceptical of the model, and maybe I should have been even more sceptical).  The high turnout at the advance polls was perhaps more meaningful than I thought, as was the perceived closeness of the election.
• The Conservative Polling Error was about 1% (the Conservatives were projected to get 30.9% of the vote, and actually got 31.89%).  I gave a 65% chance of a greater than 0% polling error, and a 30% chance of a polling error between 0% and 2%.  The Conservatives thus outperformed the polls to about the extent I expected (although they didn't get as many seats because of the Liberal out-performance).
• The CBC called the election before 10pm (see my post Timing of CBC Election Call).  I gave them 40% odds of calling the election before 11pm.  The results came in faster than I expected.

Election Related Post-Mortem: Campaign

• There were five Federal Election TV Debates.  I said there was a 60% chance of at least this number of debates, which might have been slightly overconfident given how much uncertainty seemed to be associated with the process.
• Neither Stephen Harper nor Rob Nicholson announced that they would retire before the federal election (see my posts Stephen Harper Retirement and Rob Nicholson Retirement).  I said Harper had a 35% chance of such an announcement, which was definitely too high in the absence of suggestive evidence.  I gave Nicholson a 15% of retiring, which was more reasonable.
• Negotiations have concluded on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (also see my Canada-specific predictions Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada and Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada v2).  I originally said a deal had a 15% chance of being reached between September and December, and a 35% chance of being reached in 2015.  I also said a deal involving Canada had a 20% chance of being reached in 2015, which I later increased to 45%.  I may have been a bit too pessimistic about the likelihood of a deal being reached, especially one involving Canada.
• Mulcair did not renounce his French citizenship (see my post Mulcair French Citizenship).  I gave him a 10% chance of doing so.

Questions Resolved in October: Other

• US Congress Iran Deal has resolved for Do Nothing (the Democrats were able to block Congress from rejecting the deal).  I gave 25% odds of this happening.
• The Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike did not end before the end of September.  I only gave 20% odds for the strike lasting that long.  I still think it is surprising that the strike has lasted as long as it has.
• A Capital Taxi Agreement was reached in September.  I gave a 35% chance to an agreement being reached in September, and a 80% chance to an agreement being reached before the end of September.  Those odds seem reasonable, although (in combination with the last question), I might have been a bit too optimistic about how quickly an agreement could be reached.
• The Bank of Canada Interest rate was left unchanged in October (see my post Canada Interest Rate October).  This was no surprise; I gave "no change" 80% odds.
• The proposed Fission Merger was rejected by shareholders.  I gave 60% odds to this outcome, and may have been slightly under-confident.

Questions Resolved in October: International Elections

A lot of questions have resolved in October, mainly related to the federal election.  I'm going to devote this week to going through them, starting with international election questions.

• The Centre Party won the Finnish Election.  I said they had a 70% of winning, which seems about right.
• The Portugal Ahead coalition won the Portuguese Election (also see my second post Portuguese Election v2).  I originally said the Social Democratic Party (the largest party in the Portugal Ahead coalition) had a 29% chance of winning the most seats, which I later increased to 40% after the coalition formed.  The formation of a coalition is one of those awkward events that can increase the odds of a party that is well behind winning an election.
• The new Portuguese prime minister, Pedro Coelho, belongs to the Portugal Ahead party, which I said had a 15% chance of happening.  I expected the left-wing parties to form an a coalition government, which did not happen.
• The Swiss People's party won the Swiss Election.  I said they had a 60% chance of doing so.
• Jimmy Morales won the Guatemalan Election (also see my other posts Guatemalan Election v2 and Guatemalan Election v3). In my original post, I didn't list him as a candidate, although I did give "Someone Else" a 15% chance of winning.  My second post listed him and gave him a 30% chance of winning, while my third post (after the run-off) gave him a 65% chance of winning.  I might have underestimated Morales, but his victory does seem to be genuinely surprising.
• Alpha Condé won the Guinean Presidential Election.  I gave him a 75% chance of winning, which might have been too low given how popular he seemed to be.

Canada Post Community Mailboxes

During 2016,what will be officially announced regarding Canada Post's community mailbox conversion program?
Community mailbox conversions will resume: 30%
No Announcement will be made: 30%
Home delivery will be restored in some areas: 40%
(In the case of multiple contradictory announcements, the first one is the one that matters.  Only announcements that have an effect in Ottawa count.  If home delivery is to be continued in precisely those areas that already have it, that counts as "No Announcement")

Canada Post recently halted its community mailbox conversion program due to the Liberal election win (see articles here and here).  The Liberals have promised to review the decision to cut home delivery.  Some Liberal MPs have said that home delivery will be restored (see article here).

 A Liberal government could restore home delivery in all (or some) areas that have lost it, continue indefinitely home delivery in only those areas that have it now, or resume the community mailbox conversion program.  I think the Liberals are most likely to restore home delivery, at least in part; the political pressure for them to do so seems to be significant, especially in areas that have recently lost home delivery.

Burmese Election v2

Q141: What party will win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the next Burmese election?
UDSP: 25%
NLD: 73%
Some Other Party: 2%
(The rules for my previous post still apply)

The Burmese election will be held tomorrow (see article here).  As discussed in my last post, the opposition NLD is expected to do very well, although there are some concerns that the vote will be rigged or not recognized by the ruling UDSP party.  Given how smoothly the election has gone so far, I am increasing my odds for the NLD.  I am also decreasing my odds for the other option, as no other credible party seems to have emerged.

Portuguese Confidence Vote

Before the end of 2015, will the government of Portugal lose a confidence vote?
Yes: 80%

The new right-wing government of Portugal is widely expected to lose a confidence vote on November 10th, due to the opposition of a number of left-wing parties (see article here).  In the last election, the government won a plurality of seats, but lost its parliamentary majority.

Bombardier Federal Funding

By the end of June 2016, will the federal government announce at least $100 million in additional funding to Bombardier?
Yes: 65%
(The form of funding is not relevant to this question, as long as it is in addition to previously announced funding.)

The Quebec government recently announced a $1 billion investment in Bombardier, to help it with its CSeries jet program (see article here).  Quebec has asked the federal government to provide funding as well.  The new government has said that they are considering the decision, and will make a decision after the cabinet is sworn in.  I think that some sort of new funding will be announced, in line with the Quebec funding.

Conservative Leader Timing

Before the end of 2016, will the next permanent Conservative leader be chosen?
Yes: 50%

There has been some speculation about when the next permanent Conservative leader will be chosen (see article here).  Some Conservatives want a new leader to be chosen before the end of 2016, while others would prefer more of a delay.  For comparison, the last Liberal leadership convention was held almost 2 years after the 2011 election.  On the other hand, the last Ontario PC leadership convention was held only a year after the 2014 provincial election.

Deputy Prime Minister

Who will be the next Deputy Prime Minister?
Ralph Goodale: 70%
Someone Else: 30%

Ralph Goodale seems to be widely expected to fill the Deputy Prime Minister role (see article here, and older articles here and here).  There don't seem to be any other major candidates.

Liberal MPs Reform Act

Which provisions of the Reform Act will Liberal MPs vote to accept?
None of Them: 25%
Some, but not all of Them: 20%
All of Them: 55%

The recently passed Reform Act allows each party's MPs to vote as a caucus on whether they will have a say on certain party governance decisions (see article here and my previous post here).  It is not clear to me what the MPs will decide.  However, I suspect they are more likely than not to accept at least some of the Reform Act's rules, given that the Act was passed with wide support by the last Parliament.

Ottawa Cabinet Ministers

How many senior cabinet ministers from Ottawa will the next federal cabinet contain?
None: 10%
One: 65%
Two: 15%
More than Two: 10%

(Ministers of State, Parliamentary Secretaries, and Associate Ministers don't count as senior cabinet positions.  Ottawa cabinet ministers are MPs from ridings that intersect the City of Ottawa)

Andrew Leslie is seen as a very likely senior cabinet minister.  Catherine McKenna, Karen McCrimmon, and David McGuinty seem to be other possible cabinet ministers.  In terms of regional parity, Ottawa has about 2.5% of seats nationwide, corresponding to about 60% of a seat in a 24-seat cabinet, and about 4% of Liberal seats, corresponding to about one seat in a 24-seat cabinet.  It seems very likely to me that Ottawa will have one senior minister (probably Andrew Leslie), although it could have more than that.

Conservative Interim Leader v2

Who will be the interim leader of the federal Conservative party?
Rob Nicholson: 40%
Diane Finley: 30%
Erin O'Toole: 15%
Candice Bergen: 5%
Someone Else: 10%

Since my last post, several MPs have put their names forward for interim leader of the Conservatives (see article here).  The most prominent contenders seem to be former cabinet ministers Rob Nicholson, Diane Finley, and Erin O'Toole, although Manitoba MP Candice Bergen has also entered the race.  Nicholson and Finley seem like the strongest candidates, although O'Toole is a possibility as well.  A late entrant seems possible, but unlikely.

Conservative Leader Removal

Will Conservative MPs vote to give themselves the power to remove the party leader?
Yes: 35%

According to the recently passed Reform Act (see articles here and here), Conservative MPs will get to vote about whether or not to give themselves the power to remove the party leader.  It is not clear to me how the vote is expected to go, although the outcome is presumably somewhat uncertain, given the Globe editorial.

Conservative Senators Voting

Will Conservative senators be allowed to vote for the interim leader?
Yes: 70%

There has been speculation about whether or not Conservative senators will be allowed to vote for Conservative interim leader (see articles here and here).  It seems that MPs will get to decide whether or not senators get a say, in keeping with the Reform Act.  The expectation seems to be that senators will be allowed to vote, although this seems somewhat uncertain.

Aboriginal Affairs Minister

Who will be the next Aboriginal Affairs Minister?
Jody Wilson-Raybould: 15%
Hunter Tootoo: 15%
Robert Falcon-Ouellette: 15%
Carolyn Bennett: 10%
Someone Else: 45%

According to this article, the favourites for Aboriginal Affairs Minister seem to be BC MP Jody Wilson-Raybould and Nunavut MP Hunter Tootoo.  Winnipeg MP Robert Falcon-Ouellette and former Aboriginal Affairs critic Carolyn Bennett also seem to be in the running, according to this article.  My sense is that Bennett is less likely to win than the others, as she is not aboriginal and represents a safe Liberal riding.

Agriculture Minister

Who will be the next Agriculture Minister?
Wayne Easter: 20%
Ralph Goodale: 10%
Mark Eyking: 5%
Someone Else: 65%

According to this article, there does not seem to be an obvious favourite for agriculture minister.  Wayne Easter is an experienced PEI MP who has served as Agriculture Critic and Parliamentary Secretary.  Ralph Goodale has been Agriculture Minister in the past, although he might be more likely in a more senior post.  Mark Eyking was the most recent agriculture critic, but he may be too obscure for this relatively senior post.

Environment Minister

Who will be the next Environment Minister?
Joyce Murray: 25%
Jody Wilson-Raybould: 15%
John McKay: 10%
Elizabeth May: 2%
Someone Else: 48%

According to this article, the top candidates for environment minister seem to be Joyce Murray and Jody Wilson-Raybould.  Joyce Murray seems to be the more experienced candidate, having served in as BC environment minister previously (she was also an unsuccessful leadership candidate).  John McKay was the Liberal Environment critic, although it does not seem likely that he would continue on as minister, given the newly enlarged size of the Liberal caucus.  There have been several petitions calling for Elizabeth May to become Environment Minister (see article here), but this seems extremely unlikely.

Industry Minister

Who will be the next Industry Minister?
Judy Sgro: 20%
Ralph Goodale: 15%
Chrystia Freeland: 10%
Bill Morneau: 10%
Someone Else: 45%

The favourite for Industry Minister is probably Judy Sgro, who was the Liberal Industry critic, and has served as Minister of Citizenship and Immigration.  The "runner-up" for Minister of Finance might get the Industry role, so I am recycling some of my guesses for Finance.

Next Parliamentary Session

When will the Parliament of Canada reconvene?
Before the end of November 2015: 40%
December 2015: 20%
January 2016: 25%
After January 2016: 15%

Justin Trudeau, the Prime minister-designate, has not yet indicated when parliament will reconvene.  In the elections since 1993, parliament has reconvened between 26 days (in 2011) and 112 days (in 1997) after the election, with an average of 70 days.  Recent years have generally seen parliament reconvene more quickly.  After the two most recent elections in October, parliament reconvened in January (in 1993) and in November (in 2008).

I think parliament is most likely to reconvene in either January or November, with November being slightly more likely.  The holidays make a session starting in December less likely.

Finance Minister v2

Who will be the next Finance Minister?
Ralph Goodale: 30%
Bill Morneau: 20%
Scott Brison: 10%
Chrystia Freeland: 10%
Someone Else: 30%

There has been more speculation about possible Finance Ministers since my previous post (see articles here and here).  Ralph Goodale seems to be the clear favourite to become the next Finance Minister.  Recently elected MP Bill Morneau seems to be a strong candidate, and Chrystia Freeland is sometimes mentioned.  John McCallum is another potential Finance Minster, although he seems like a less likely pick than some of the other candidates.

Justice Minister

Who will be the next Justice Minister?
Dominic Leblanc: 30%
Denis Paradis: 10%
Marco Mendicino: 10%
Bill Blair: 5%
Someone Else: 45%

Dominic Leblanc, former Liberal Justice critic and New Brunswick MP, seems to be the favourite for Justice Minister (see article here).  Bill Blair, former Toronto police chief, is also a contender, although he seems to lack the law background that usually goes with the post (see article here).  Marco Mendicino, who defeated Finance Minister Joe Oliver, has a law background, as does Quebec MP Denis Paradis (who also has extensive cabinet experience).

Liberal Defence Minister

Who will be the Liberal Defence Minister?
Andrew Leslie: 30%
Karen McCrimmon: 15%
Harjit Sajjan: 10%
Bill Blair: 5%
Someone Else: 40%

The front-runner for Liberal Defence Minister seems to be recently elected Orleans MP Andrew Leslie (see article here).  Kanata-Carleton MP Karen McCrimmon and Vancouver South MP Harjit Sajjan seem to both have some military experience (see here).  Bill Blair, the former Toronto police chief, is another possibility, although he would seem like a better fit in Public Safety.

Conservative Interim Leader

Who will be the interim leader of the federal Conservative party while the next permanent leader is chosen?
Rob Nicholson: 17%
Peter Van Loan: 17%
Tony Clement: 13%
Rona Ambrose: 13%
Someone Else: 40%

As a result of the federal election, Stephen Harper has resigned as Conservative Party leader, and asked for an interim leader to be chosen (see story here).  In this sort of situation, the interim leader is usually a senior figure within the party who is not seen as a likely permanent leadership candidate.  Rob Nicholson or Peter Van Loan seem to fit that bill nicely.  Tony Clement or Rona Ambrose are other possibilities.

Pontiac v2

Liberal: 65%
NDP: 25%
Conservative: 10%

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell v2

Liberal: 70%
Conservative: 30%

Gatineau v2

NDP: 85%
Liberal: 15%

Hull—Aylmer v2

NDP: 55%
Liberal: 45%

Carleton v2

Conservative: 85%
Liberal: 15%

Kanata-Carleton v2

Liberal: 72%
Conservative: 28%

Nepean v2

Liberal: 65%
Conservative: 35%

Orleans v2

Liberal: 87%
Conservative: 13%

Ottawa South v2

Liberal: 99%
Conservative: 1%

Ottawa-West Nepean v2

Liberal: 90%
Conservative: 10%

Ottawa-Vanier v2

Liberal: 97%
NDP: 2%
Conservative: 1%

Ottawa Centre v2

I'm going to do another round of Ottawa riding projections, given changes in the polls.  I'll start with Ottawa Centre.
NDP: 70%
Liberal: 30%

Timing of CBC Election Call

On October 19th, when will CBC announce which party they project to have won the federal election?
Before 23:00 EDT: 40%
Between 23:00 and 24:00 EDT: 40%
After 24:00 EDT: 20%
(The initial announcement is what matters for this question, even if it is latter rescinded.  CBC does not need to specify what type of government (e.g. minority or majority), just the winning party.)

The Liberals are projected to win the federal election tomorrow, by 140 seats to the Conservative's 120 (according to 308, see here).  The polls close at 21:30 EDT in Ontario, and at 22:00 EDT in BC.  It seems likely that enough results will come in for the CBC to project a winner an hour or so after the last poll closes.  However, if the race is very close, they might not project a winner until after midnight.

Conservative Polling Error

What will the difference be between the national Conservative vote total and the final poll average at threehundredeight.com?
Greater than 2%: 35%
Between 0% and 2%: 30%
Between -2% and 0%: 20%
Less than -2%: 15%
(A positive difference means that the Conservatives have outperformed the poll average.   The final poll average is the one that takes into account all polling done before election day, but does not take into account exit polling or actual returns.)

The vote total for the conservative party has been somewhat underestimated in some recent elections (the most notable being the recent UK election).  In the past 4 Canadian elections, the Conservative vote total has been underestimated by 2.5% (2011), 2.9% (2008). -0.8% (2006), and -0.9% (2004).  The errors in the 2008 and 2011 elections were much larger than the statistically calculated error.

Results in previous years suggest that the final poll average is likely to underestimate the Conservative vote total, possibly substantially.  However, this might not happen to the extent that it has happened in previous elections.

Federal Election Voter Turnnout

What will voter turnout in the next federal election be?
Less than 55%: 15%
Between 55 and 60%: 60%
Between 60 and 65%: 20%
Greater than 65%: 5%

Voter turnout in Canadian federal elections has been on a long-term decline (see Wikipedia article here).  Based on the trend in voter turnout since 1993, turnout this year should be about 57.2%, with a standard error of 2.5%.  This would suggest an estimate of 19%-68%-13%-0% for the four categories I have listed.

I think that the average estimate is a bit too low; voter turnout has not decreased as rapidly in recent times as in the past (turnout was relatively good in the 2011 election, at 61.4%).  Turnout at advanced polls has been very strong (see story here).  Also, the close nature of this election might cause higher turnout (although this is not at all clear from past elections).  I think a 58% estimate for voter turnout might be appropriate. which changes the odds to 12%-67%-21%-0%.  I am also increasing odds for the extreme turnouts (less than 55% and greater than 65%), which are likely underestimated with the normal model I am using.

Outremont

Which party will win in the riding of Outremont?
NDP: 65%
Liberal: 35%

Outremont is a central Montreal riding that is the current home riding of NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.  In the last election, the NDP won 56% of the vote, while the Liberals got 24%, and the other parties were well back.  However, based on the recent collapse in NDP support in Quebec, www.threehundredeight.com currently gives the NDP only a 56% chance of winning in Outremont.  I think that this estimate might be a bit low; now that Outremont is in jeopardy, the NDP will likely make more of an effort than they would have otherwise to get out the vote there.  The Liberal candidate, Rachel Bendayan, does not seem to be a "star candidate", although she is not as much of a lightweight as might be expected (see story here).

Catalan Independence Negotiations

By the end of 2016, will negotiations begin between Catalonia and Spain regarding Catalan independence?
Yes: 20%
(If Catalonia unilaterally secedes or declares independence, this question will close for yes.  Negotiations between Catalonia and Spain not regarding independence will not be sufficient to close this question)

Catalan separatists recently won regional elections that were widely viewed as a referendum on Catalan separatism (see story here).  The main separatist party, Together for Yes, had vowed before the election to immediately begin negotiations with the central Spanish government over independence.  In any case, they plan to unilaterally declare independence within 18 months.  The current Spanish government seems to be resolutely opposed to Catalan independence, and unwilling to enter into any negotiations.  The government's view might change after the national elections in December, although all of the major parties seem to be opposed to Catalan independence.

Given the opposition of the central government, it seems unlikely that any Catalan independence negotiations will actually take place.  The most likely outcome is that the Catalan government will back down in its demands, in exchange for some form of regional autonomy.

Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike v2

When will the taxi strike at the Ottawa Airport end?
Before November 15th: 30%
Between November 15th and the end of 2015: 35%
Not before the end of 2015: 35%

The airport taxi strike continues (see story here and my previous post here).  I am surprised that the strike has lasted as long as it has; I expected it to end fairly quickly.  There seems to have been few signs of progress, and the recent Citizen story does not give the impression that the strike will be resolved soon.  Having said that, some sort of resolution will probably be reached eventually; taxi drivers may be less willing to continue the protest through the winter months.  I think the strike is still more likely than not to resolve before the end of the year.

Fission Merger

Will shareholders of Fission Uranium approve the proposed merger with Denison Mines?
Yes: 40%

Shareholders of Fission Uranium, a uranium mining company, will vote on merging with Denison Mines on October 14th (see story here).  The Fission board seems to support the deal, but many shareholders seem to be negative.  My guess is that the deal is slightly more likely to be voted down than approved; the level of opposition among shareholders seems to be significant.

Libyan Unity Government

By the end of 2015, will a Libyan unity government be formed?
Yes: 20%

The UN has come up with a proposal for a Libyan national unity government (see story here).  Libya has suffered ongoing instability since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and the internationally recognized government has lost control of the western part of the country (including the capital, Tripoli) to the Libya Dawn militia alliance.  The UN proposal seems to have been dismissed by both sides in the conflict.  It seems rather unlikely that a unity government will be formed as a result of it, or through any other means, in the remainder of 2015.

Hydro One IPO Valuation

What will be the implied valuation of Hydro One from its IPO?
Less than $11.31 billion: 25%
Between $11.31 billion and $11.91 billion: 25%
Between $11.91 billion and $12.5 billion: 25%
More than $12.5 billion: 25%
(The implied valuation is the amount of money raised divided by the proportion of Hydro One sold. If the Hydro One IPO does not take place before the end of 2016, this question will be cancelled.)

The Hydro One IPO is scheduled for this November (see stories here and here).  Up to 15% of the company is to be sold for between $1.54 billion and $1.7 billion, valuing the company as a whole at $11.31 billion to $12.5 billion.  The implied valuation seems to have decreased substantially from previous estimates of $13.5 billion to $15 billion in April.

I think the current estimated valuation range may well be off in either direction.  It may depend on how well the Canadian market does in the lead-up to the IPO.  My guess would be that the valuation would tend to be a bit optimistic.  However, the current quoted prices probably don't fully take into account how well the market has done in the past week or so, so might tend to be pessimistic for that reason.  I'm going to guess that those two effects roughly wash out, so the estimated valuations are accurate.

TPP Canadian Ratification

By the end of June 2016, will the Canadian Parliament ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership?
Yes: 80%
(The deal merely needs to be passed in the House of Commons for this question to close)

Negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership recently concluded successfully.  The deal now needs to be ratified by parliament (see article here).  The Conservatives support the deal, the Liberals are supportive but somewhat non-committal, and the NDP are opposed to the deal (see article here).

The Liberals will very likely support the deal when it comes for a vote.  Given that the Conservatives or Liberals are very likely to form the next government, with the two parties together holding a majority of seats, the TPP deal should pass easily.  The largest uncertainty is probably timing; the deal might not be ready for ratification early enough for this question.  ipredict says that the deal has an 80% chance of being ratified in the US before the end of June 2016. so it should also be ready in Canada at that time.

Canadian Oil Sands Acquisition

Before the end of 2016, will Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. be acquired?
Yes, by Suncor: 20%
Yes, by Exxon or Imperial Oil: 15%
Yes, by some other company: 15%
No: 50%
(The deal must be announced by the end of 2016, and close by the end of June 2017)

Suncor recently launched a hostile takeover bid for Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (see articles here and here).  The Canadian Oil Sands board has rejected the bid, and introduced a "poison pill" clause to make such bids less attractive without the board's consent.  There seems to be speculation that Suncor could come back with a more attractive bid, or that another company, such as Exxon, could bid for Canadian Oil Sands.

I think that it is about as likely as not that Canadian Oil Sands will be acquired by the end of 2016.  If it is acquired, the most likely buyer is Suncor, given the interest they have already shown.  Exxon is another likely buyer, and some other buyer is also possible.

Guinean Presidential Election

Who will win the Guinean presidential election?
Alpha Condé: 75%
Cellou Dalein Diallo: 20%
Someone Else: 5%

The African nation of Guinea will be holding presidential elections on October 11th (see article here).  The incumbent president, Alpha Condé, seems to be the favourite.  The campaign seems to have been marred by violence and accusations of irregularities.  Incumbency is always a large advantage in elections of this type.

Next Federal Election Date

Before the end of 2016, will there be another federal election?
Yes: 20%

The government formed after the current federal election may well be a somewhat unstable minority government, especially if the Conservatives return to power.  It is possible that there could be another federal election if the newly formed government falls.  I think that that the new government will probably last at least through the end of 2016. Joe Clark's 1979 government was the last one to last less than a year; recent Conservative minorities have managed to stay in power for longer than that.

Kunduz Control

By the end of 2015, will the government of Afghanistan control the city of Kunduz?
Yes: 60%
(This question will close for "No" if the government does not control a substantial part of the city, even if the government controls most of the city)

The Afghan city of Kunduz is currently being fought over between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban (see Wikipedia article here and news story here)..  After the recent capture of the city by the Taliban, control seems to have gone back and forth between the Taliban and the government.  The government seems to be making a substantial effort to recapture the city.  I think that they will succeed in doing so by the end of 2015.

Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada v2

By the end of October 2015, will Canada successfully conclude negotiations on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)?
Yes: 45%
(An "agreement-in-principle" counts)

TPP negotiations seem to be currently in the final stage, with a possible deal expected shortly (see story here).  There still seems to be substantial uncertainty over whether a deal will actually be reached; many substantial issues still seem to be unresolved.  I think that a deal is about as likely to be reached as not; the news stories convey the sense of an imminent deal, but there don't seem to be many insiders saying that a deal is inevitable.

Guatemalan Election v3

Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Jimmy Morales: 65%
Sandra Torres: 35%

The first round of the Guatemalan Presidential Election resulted in Morales in first place with 24% of the vote, and Torres in second place with about 20% of the vote (Baldizón was just behind Torres).  Morales and Torres will face each other in a run-off election, to be held on October 25th.  Given the small lead for Morales in the first round, he seems more likely to win the run-off then Torres.  Also, Baldizón supporters are probably more likely to support Morales (who is on the right side of the political spectrum, like Baldizón), then Torres (who is on the left side of the political spectrum).

Questions Resolved in September: Part 2

• Next Greek Election Date has resolved for "Yes", because of the legislative Greek Election held in September.  I said that there was a 65% chance of another election in 2015.
• Simcoe North By-election Result has resolved for "Patrick Brown", whom I said had a 90% chance of winning.  This estimate might have been too low, given how good of a position Brown was in.
• September Greek Election has resolved for "SYRIZA", whom I said had a 65% chance of winning.  I think these odds were about right, given the somewhat inconsistent polling before the election
• Trudeau Munk Debate has resolved for "Yes", because Justin Trudeau ultimately decided to attend the Munk Debate.  I said this had a 80% chance of happening.
• Burkina Faso Coup has resolved for "Yes", as the coup leaders have surrendered.  This question had almost resolved by the time I posted it, so my 85% for estimate for "Yes" might have been too low.

Questions Resolved in September: Part 1

• Mohamed Fahmy Release has resolved for "Between April 1st and December 31,2015", which I said had a 50% chance of happening, which seems very reasonable.
• Green Leader TV Debate has resolved for "Yes", as Elizabeth May participated in the Maclean's debate in August.  I said this had a 90% chance of happening, which might have been too high, since the English consortium debate she looked likely to be invited to did not ultimately take place.
• Guatemalan President has resolved for "No".  Otto Perez Molina left office on September 3rd, which was just after the September 1st cutoff date for this question, which counts as a "No".  I said that Molina had a 85% chance of staying in office until September 1st, which was too high given how close this question was to resolving to "yes".
• Baiji Oil Complex Capture has resolved for "Yes".  Current news stories (see example here) talk about Iraqi forces trying to recapture Baiji, which suggests that the IS captured it.  The capture seems to have taken place around the time I originally posted the question; a Guardian story from May 23 suggests that the IS had captured the refinery at that time.  I said that the IS had a 50% chance of capturing the refinery, which might have been too low. 
• Canada Interest Rate September has resolved for "Unchanged Rate" which I said had a 85% chance of happening.  That number seems to be about right.