BC Teacher Rights

Q110: Will the BC Court of Appeal rule that 2002 provincial legislation on class size and composition violated teachers' charter rights?
Yes: 60%

The BC Court of Appeal is expected to rule today on whether 2002 provincial legislation unconstitutionally restricted teachers' collective bargaining rights (see article here).  The lower BC.Supreme Court has ruled that it did.  The provincial premier, Christy Clark, expects that the Court of Appeal will overturn the BC.Supreme Court's judgement.

I think that the Court of Appeal will probably side with the lower court, as this is the most common outcome.  The premier's comments may just be bravado.

Remembrance Day Holiday

Q109: Before the next federal election, will a law be passed making Remembrance Day a legal holiday?
Yes: 15%

A proposed NDP bill to make Remembrance Day a legal holiday is currently before the House of Commons (see article here).  Because the current session of parliament is about to end due to the upcoming federal election, the MP who introduced it now thinks that it is "highly unlikely" to pass before the summer.  Some Conservatives seem to support the bill, although the party have not fully cooperated in moving it through the legislative system.  Support among veterans groups is also divided.

Given the limited amount of parliamentary time available before the next election, and the lukewarm support for the bill, I don't think that the bill will pass before the next election.  Few private member's bills of this sort actually get passed into law.

PEI election

Q108: Which party will win the most seats in the upcoming PEI election?
Liberal: 95%
PC: 4%
NDP: 1%

The PEI election is scheduled for May 4th.  According to recent polls, the Liberals have about 43% support, while the PCs have 27% and the NDP have 18%.  It appears that the Liberals have recently lost support to the NDP, although this might be due to differences in polling methodology.

Given the considerable Liberal lead in the polls, and very little time to go, they are very likely to win the election.  The NDP are very unlikely to win, as they have never gone above 20% in the polls, and only got 3% of the vote in the last election.

Eastern Ontario Greenbelt

Q107: By the end of 2016, will the Ontario government officially announce an Eastern Ontario greenbelt?
Yes: 25%
(A tentative plan counts, but consultations about the idea alone do not count)

According to the latest Ontario budget (see here, pg. 71), the government of Ontario is considering a Eastern Ontario analogue to the greenbelt in the Golden Horseshoe.  This greenbelt would be separate from (and presumably much larger) than the current federally administered greenbelt around the central Ottawa.

I do not think an official announcement will be made, at least in the time period in question.  The reference in the budget is fairly vague.  The municipal situation in Eastern Ontario is also somewhat different from that in the Golden Horseshoe; the City of Ottawa is much more dominant in Eastern Ontario than any one municipality in the Golden Horseshoe, so coordination between different municipalities is not as necessary.

Income-Splitting Repeal

Q106: By the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will end income-splitting between parents?
Yes: 35%

The latest Conservative budget introduced income-splitting between parents, a measure which reduces the tax burden for families where one parent earns much more than the other.  The Liberals and NDP have promised to scrap income-splitting if they win the next election.

According to my previous estimates, the Liberals (or NDP) have about a 50% chance of winning the next election.  I think they are quite likely to scrap income splitting if they do win; unlike the TFSA contribution limit expansion, it is an expensive program.  Still, doing so would greatly annoy the families that currently benefit from income-splitting, so they might not do so (or they might only tweak the program).

Yukon French School SC

Q105: Will the Supreme Court rule that Yukon's French school board has the power to control its own enrolment policy?
Yes: 60%
(A retrial will count as a "yes")

Yukon's French school board (which currently operates one school in Whitehorse) has sued the Yukon government, over a number of issues.  The main issue is over admissions policy; the school board wants to admit more students who are not the children or grandchildren of French speakers.  The case is currently before the Supreme Court on appeal (see articles here and here).  The original case in 2011 was successful, but was overturned by appeal by the Yukon Supreme Court.  A similar case in the N.W.T.  resulted in a victory for the government in the N.W.T. Court of Appeal (see here).  However, the Supreme Court recently ruled in favour of a Vancouver francophone school.

I think that the appeal will probably be successful; this case seems to be fairly similar to the successful Vancouver case.  However, this is not certain, given the adverse Yukon Supreme Court ruling.

TFSA Limit Contraction

Q104: By the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will decrease the annual contribution limit for TFSAs from $10,000?

Yes: 20%

(The decrease does not have to be for the 2016 tax year; a later year is fine.  Changes in the TFSA rules that do not affect the annual contribution limit do not count.  An ending of the TFSA program would count)

The latest Conservative budget almost doubled the annual TFSA contribution limit to $10,000, as widely expected (see my post here).   According to a recent Ottawa Citizen article about the increase, "if the Liberals form the government after the next election, they would reverse the near doubling of the tax-free savings account limit because it helps wealthy Canadians the most."  The NDP are also opposed to the limit increase.

According to my latest estimates, there is about a 50% chance of a Liberal or NDP government after the next election.  However, I don't think a TFSA contribution reduction is a sure thing even if the Liberals are elected; it would annoy many people who planned to take advantage of the increased contribution room.

Balanced Budget 2016

Q103: Will the federal government run a balanced budget in 2016?
Yes: 65%
(As with Q14, the initial budget is all that matters)

The federal government is planning to pass a balanced budget law, which would require that the federal budget be balanced in future years.  There is some scepticism about whether this law will actually be effective at balancing the budget in future years (similar provincial laws have not always been effective).  According to the PBO, a small surplus is forecast for 2016.

I think that the budget probably will be balanced in 2016; the new law does make this more likely.  Unexpected problems could lead to an unbalanced budget, however.

Israel Coalition Partner

Q102: Will the next Israeli government include the Zionist Union Party?
Yes: 15%
(The Zionist Union needs to be part of the governing coalition.  An informal agreement would not count.)

Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the centre-right Likud party, is currently trying to form a new governing coalition after winning the recent Israeli election.  There have been persistent rumours that he may include the Zionist Union (the main centre-left party), in the coalition, due to difficulties in reaching an agreement with the other right-wing parties.  The Zionist union has denied that possibility.  The Zionist Union might also be asked to form the government on its own if Netanyahu fails in his negotiations (this article briefly discusses that possibility).

Without being too familiar with Israeli politics, my sense is that it would be very unusual for Zionist Union to be asked to join the governing coalition, or asked to form a new governing coalition.  The suggestion that they might do so, and the delay in negotiations, are probably just bargaining tactics in Netanyahu's negotiations with the other right-wing parties.

Green Leader TV Debate

Q101: Will the federal Green Party leader participate in any of the televised leader's debates in the upcoming federal election?
Yes: 90%

The Green Party has participated in some, but not all, previous federal election TV debates.  Green Party leader Elizabeth May recently received a letter that seemed to suggest that she would participate in the debate in the upcoming election (see story here), although this has not been officially confirmed.

Given the letter, I think it would be quite surprising if May did not participate in the debates.  However, there is still a possibility that she may not do so, due to scheduling constraints, or that the letter has been misinterpreted.

High School Strike Durham

Q100: When will Durham high school students return to class?
Before April 25th: 30%
Between April 26th and May 9th: 35%
Not before May 9th: 35%
(A resolution of this question requires a majority of Durham region students to return to class on a permanent basis.)

A high school teacher's strike will begin this Monday in Durham region, the east GTA region including Oshawa, Whitby, Ajax, Pickering, and smaller places (see article here).  Talks do not seem to be going on right now, although they will probably start again shortly.

I think the strike might very well end quickly, but it is also possible for it to drag on for a long time (like the recent Vancouver teacher's strike).  A strike longer than 3 weeks is somewhat unlikely, although certainly possible.

Federal Election Date v2

Q99: Will the next federal election take place before October 1, 2015?
Yes: 10%

There is still some speculation that a federal election will be held before the scheduled date (October 19).  A source in the article says that the likelihood of a spring election is "very, very low."  The House of Commons will be ending its current session in June, which seems to be a cut-off for an election call.

I think there is still a non-negligible chance of an early election, since the possibility is still being discussed.  However, there is not much time between the budget and June for the election to be called in.

Rideau Canal Boat Tour Ottawa

Q98: In what year will a boat tour of the Rideau Canal in central Ottawa next be offered?
2015: 30%
2016: 45%
Not before 2017: 25%
(The tour must be a single day tour, and go north of Hartwell's Locks)

Paul's Boat Lines, who has offered Rideau Canal Boat Tours for 66 years, will not be offering a tour this year, as it has lost its contract with Parks Canada (see story here).  Parks Canada is seeking “innovative experiences and leading edge services” to replace it, for a minimum of $75,000 per year.  That probably means a new boat tour (the proposal has a section about "Conditions Specific to Water-based Vessels").  They want the new services to start by May 20th, 2016.

Given the Parks Canada deadline, a new tour operator will probably start for the 2016 season.  An operator might be able to start this year (or, more likely, Paul's might get a one-year lease extension).

Ring of Fire Road/Railway

Q97: Before the end of 2016, will a government or company announce that they will build a road or rail line to Ontario's Ring of Fire Belt?
Road: 23%
Railway: 10%
Both: 2%
Neither: 65%
(The proposed road or railway must connect to the existing network.  An announcement that a road or rail line "might" be built is not sufficient; there has to be a firm commitment.)

Ontario's Ring of Fire mining belt is currently not connected to the road/rail transportation network.  A provincial/federal study was recently announced to examine the idea of a building a transportation corridor that would link up the area (and some nearby First Nations reserves).  A road seems to be the preferred option, since it would do a better job of linking the First Nations reserves.

I do not think that a road or rail line will be announced; the Ring of Fire belt has been an issue for several years, and nothing concrete seems to have happened.  The general sense seems to be that development is stalled.

Wellington/Richmond Pay Parking

Q96: Before the end of 2016, will paid parking be introduced on Richmond Road/Wellington Street West in Ottawa?
Yes: 30%

There has been a proposal by the local city councillor, Jeff Leiper, to introduce paid parking on Richmond Road/Wellington Street West.  Consultations will take place in May, and paid parking might be introduced by the end of the year.  The individuals quoted in the article don't seem to have strong opinions either way.  Most members of the public are probably opposed.  Given all of that, I have the sense that paid parking probably won't be introduced, at least not before the end of 2016.

Ontario PC Leader v3

Q95: Who will win the Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) Leadership Race?
Christine Elliott: 40%
Patrick Brown: 60%

Since my last projection, Monte McNaughton has dropped out of the race and endorsed Patrick Brown.  Patrick Brown has also been endorsed by other prominent individuals, including Postmedia CEO Paul Godfrey.

Because of the endorsements, I am increasing my odds for Patrick Brown.  I now think he is slightly more likely to win than Elliot.  I would not be that surprised either way.

Federal Coalition Government

Q94: Will the next federal government be a coalition government?
Yes: 10%
(A yes answer requires that the government have cabinet ministers belonging to at least two different parties.  MPs who cross the floor to join the government would not count)

Given the likelihood that no single party will win a majority of the seats after the next federal election, there has been some speculation that a coalition government will be formed between multiple parties to form a majority.  The most discussed possibility is a Liberal-NDP coalition, although other parties are also discussed.  The NDP have indicated that they are open to a coalition, while the Liberals have said that they are opposed.

A coalition is highly unlikely if a single party forms a minority, which I said had a 25% chance of happening.  A Liberal-NDP coalition is also unlikely if there is a strong Conservative minority (because it wouldn't necessarily have the majority of the seats) or a Liberal minority (as the Liberals wouldn't have to be in a coalition to form the government).  A weak Conservative (or NDP) minority is probably the situation most likely to lead to a coalition.  This is what current projections suggest will happen.  Coalitions have been relatively uncommon in Canadian history, especially recent Canadian history (the last coalition was formed during World War I, and even this might not have counted according to my definition).  Indeed, coalitions are seen as somewhat unacceptable in a Canadian context.  However, a coalition after the next UK election might change that perception.

Federal Election Result v2

Q93: What will be the result of the 2015 Federal Election?
Conservative Majority: 15%
Conservative Minority: 40%
Liberal Minority: 30%
Liberal Majority: 10%
NDP Minority/Majority: 5%
(This question is just a second version of question 3)

Since my initial federal election prediction. the Conservatives have gained in the polls slightly, so a new projection might be appropriate.  According to the current threehundredeight.com projection, the Conservatives and Liberals will both get about 32% of the vote, while the NDP are at 22%.  However, the Conservatives are projected to get more seats.

Given the above, I am increasing my odds for a Conservative minority and majority, and decreasing my odds for a Liberal minority and majority.  I now think that the most likely outcome is a Conservative minority, although a Liberal minority is also quite possible.

Alberta Election

Q92: What will be the result of the upcoming Alberta provincial election?
PC Minority: 35%
PC Majority: 20%
Wildrose Minority: 25%
Wildrose Majority: 15%
NDP Minority/Majority: 5%
(Definition note: For the context of this question, a minority for a party means that the party has the plurality of seats in the legislature after the election, but not the majority of seats.  Such a party will likely, but is not certain to, form a minority government.)

An Alberta legislative election has been called for May 5th (see Wikipedia article here).  According to current polls, summarized at threehundredeight.com, the Wildrose are leading with about 30% of the vote, the PCs have 27%, the NDP are at 24%, and the Liberals are at 10%.  However, the PCs seem to be projected to win more seats than the Wildrose party.

Given the PCs organizational and incumbent advantages, and given that they are favored in threehundredeight projection, I think they are more likely than the Wildrose Party to win the most seats.  The NDP could win the most seats, but this would require them to gain a significant amount of ground in the polls.

Mike Duffy Verdict

Q91: Will Mike Duffy be found guilty on any of the criminal charges he is currently facing with regards to Senate expenses?
Yes: 85%
(A plea bargain will count as a yes, as long as Duffy pleads guilty to some criminal charge.)

Mike Duffy is currently facing 31 criminal charges regarding improper Senate expenses, in a trial scheduled to last until June.  The trial is by a judge only.

Given the number of charges, Duffy will likely be found guilty of at least one of them, even if he is acquitted on most of them.  He does seem to have made a number of questionable decisions regarding Senate expenses.

SC Medical Marijuana

Q90: Will the Supreme Court overturn the current federal law banning consumption of medical marijuana except in dried form?
Yes: 60%

The Supreme Court is currently considering the Smith case.  The main issue is whether Canadians have a constitutional right to medical marijuana in non-dried forms.  Both lower courts in BC found that they did, but the federal government has appealed to the Supreme Court.  I think the Supreme Court will side with the lower courts, and overturn the current law.

LHC Supersymmetry

Q89: Before the end of 2016, will the LHC discover a new particle heavier than the Higgs Boson whose existence was predicted by supersymmetry?
Yes: 30%
(This question will resolve as yes if Scicast question 1289 resolves as yes before the end of 2016, although this is not a necessary condition.  A new particle whose existence has not been predicted by any variant of supersymmetry would not count)

The LHC has just restarted, after a 2 year upgrade.  There is speculation that it may discover a heavier "supersymmetric twin particle" in its latest run.  In the last run, the LHC did not find any supersymmetric particles, to the surprise of many.  

I do not think that any new particle will be discovered.  Although supersymmetry seems to have some theoretical appeal, the failure to find particles so far seems to be a serious blow.  Also, the time period of this question might not be long enough to discover a new particle.

Questions Resolved in March

Looking back on March, the following questions have resolved:

• Q38 (Zehaf-Bibeau Video) has resolved as yes because most of the video has been released.  I said this has a 57% chance of happening.
• Q46 (Future Shop/Best Buy Ottawa) has resolved as yes, because several Future Shops in Ottawa have closed (and the rest have turned into Best Buys).  I said this had a 20% chance of happening.
• Q59 (York Tunnel) has resolved, as the tunnel has been revealed to be for a non-criminal purpose.  I said this had a 15% chance of happening.
• Q66 (Tikrit Control) has resolved as half yes, half no.  Unfortunately for this question, Tikrit was in a somewhat ambiguous state on March 31 at 23:59 EDT.  As an Al Jazeera article explains, "A major military push saw Iraqi police and allied forces retake the city centre on Tuesday (March 31) but pockets of jihadist militants remained."  The presidential palace was not captured until April 2nd.  There seems to have been conflicting information about exactly what the status of Tikrit was on March 31.  In light of this ambiguity, I will resolve the question as half yes and half no.  I had said that there was a 85% chance that Tikrit would be captured by the end of March, which was probably too high.
• Q88 (Andreas Lubitz's motive) has resolved as "Before the end of March".  Since I created the question, there has been numerous announcements that point to suicide (see here, for example).  I said that there was a 30% chance that this question would resolve so soon.

I didn't do too well on questions resolving in March.

Mosul Control

Q88: When will the Islamic State lose control of Mosul?
Before June 1st: 20%
Between June 1st and August 31st: 20%
Between September 1st and December 31st: 20%
After December 31st: 40%
(Control of the city centre is what counts for this question.)

Now that ISIS has lost control of Tikrit, the next major target for anti-ISIS forces seems to be Mosul. In late February, the US indicated a April-May timeline for the attack on Mosul to begin, although this may have be pushed back.  A Yahoo News article talks about a campaign against Mosul starting in weeks.

I think that Mosul will probably be captured sometime this year, with a median time somewhere in the fall.  Given that it took a month to capture Tikrit, it is quite unlikely that Mosul will be captured before June 1st.

Whole Foods Fine

Q87: Before September 1st, will Whole Foods be fined at least $10,000 for being open on Good Friday and Easter Sunday in Ottawa?
Yes: 20%
(If the amount of the fine can't be publicly determined, the answer will be deemed no.  An announcement of a fine is sufficient for a yes answer, even if the fine is later reduced on appeal)

Whole Foods at Lansdowne Park has decided to stay open on Good Friday and (possibly) Easter Sunday this year, defying Ontario holiday laws.  Businesses breaking the law can be fined up to the greater of $50,000 or the total amount of gross sales for the holiday, although the minimum fine is only $500.  Lisa MacLeod has expressed her disapproval of the decision.

I do not think Whole Foods will end up paying a significant fine.  The unpopularity of the current law will make it harder to fine them.  The tendency will be to have them pay a small fine (or possibly no fine at all).