Federal Election Result

Another question on the federal election:

Q3: What will be the result of the 2015 Federal Election?
Conservative Majority: 10%
Conservative Minority: 25%
Liberal Minority: 40%
Liberal Majority: 20%
NDP Minority/Majority: 5%

(Definition note: For the context of this question, a minority for a party means that the party has the most seats in the House of Commons after the election, but not the majority of seats.  Such a party will likely, but is not certain to, form a minority government.)

According to recent polls, well summarized by threehundredeight.com, the Liberals have a slight lead of 35% to 32% on the Conservatives.  These numbers suggest a Liberal minority.  A lot of things could happen before the election, but that is probably the most likely outcome.  A Conservative minority is also distinct possibility (some polls seem to suggest that, in fact).  A Liberal majority is also possible (especially if the Liberals profit from the Mike Duffy trial),  Another Conservative Majority is also possible, but less likely.

It is also possible that the NDP could win the plurality of seats.  The NDP have never been able to do this in the past at the federal level, and they are a long way from it now according to current polls, so I am assigning this possibility a low probability.