Federal Election Date

It's time to look at the upcoming federal election.

Q2: When will the next federal election take place?
Before June 1, 2015: 20%
Between June 1, 2015 and September 30, 2015: 10%
On or after October 1, 2015: 70%

The next federal election is scheduled for October 19, 2015.  The Conservatives could call the election earlier; there is a fair amount of speculation about a "spring election" to avoid the Mike Duffy trial.  The Conservatives have indicated that they plan to hold the election on the scheduled date, although they may change their mind.

The level of speculation leads me to believe that an early election is a distinct possibility.  There has been an early election before with the current fixed election date law (in 2008).  However, the conventional wisdom seems to be that the election will be held on the fixed date.  I will thus put a 70% weight on this.

If the election is held early, I think it will probably be held before June 1st.  The speculation seems to be focussed on a "spring" election, not a summer election.  An election in July or August is less likely, given vacation schedules.  An election in September would be too close to the scheduled date.