Canadian Dollar

Q7: What will the value of the Canadian Dollar in US Dollars be at the end of 2015?
Less than 80 cents: 25%
Between 80 and 85 cents: 25%
Between 85 and 90 cents: 25%
Greater than 90 cents: 25%
(Definition note: The Bank of Canada exchange rate on noon of December 31, 2015 shall be used)

The Canadian Dollar is currently worth about 85 cents US.  It fell significantly in 2014 from about 94 cents.  There is some speculation that it will either fall further or rally back to where it was before.

I think that (accurate, substantially weighted in one direction) predictions of what will happen in liquid markets of this type are almost impossible.  If it were obvious what will happen, then why do prices not already reflect it?  There might be a limited bias for the Canadian dollar to return to its purchasing power parity level, but it appears it is already at that level, so that does not suggest change in one direction or another.  Thus, the Canadian dollar is equally likely to be above 85 cents as below 85 cents.

Looking at the past 10 years of exchange rate data, the change in the exchange rate would have been sufficient to move the Canadian Dollar out of the 80-90 cent range in 5 out of the last 10 years.  Putting that together with the equal likelihood of movement up and down, I get a 25% estimate for each of the bins.