Post-Mortem: International Politics

• The Spanish election held last December did not lead to the formation of a stable government.  Thus, I have decided to void my Spanish PM and Spanish PM v2 questions.  These seemed like reasonable questions at the time, but they unfortunately assumed that a stable government would be formed as a result of the December election.
• The Austrian Presidential Election resulted in the election of Alexander Van der Bellen.  I said he had a 35% chance of winning, which was the highest I gave any candidate.  I might have been under confident for this question, although the final result was fairly close.
• The Dominican Republic Election was won by Danilo Medina, whom I said had a 77% chance of winning.
• The Peruvian Election was won by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.  I said he had a 10% chance of winning, but I gave the same percentage chance to two other candidates.  I think this was a fairly reasonable prediction.

Canada Post Strike v2

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 55%

Since my last post, Canada Post has given notice that it plans to lock out workers (see article here).  I am increasing my odds of a strike or lockout accordingly.

Post-Mortem: Miscellaneous

• The City of Ottawa has asked the province for permission to use photo radar (see my post Photo Radar Ottawa).  In March, I said there was only a 30% chance that this would happen, which I think might have been a reasonable estimate, given the opposition to the idea at the time.
• Construction has started on the Mooney's Bay Playground.  I said there was an 85% chance that this would happen in 2016, which was a good estimate.
• The City of Toronto has passed a taxi reform bylaw (see my post Toronto Taxi Reform).  In April, I said there was a 30% chance that this would happen, which might have been a slight underestimate.
• The M3MSat Launch has taken place.  Last July, I said there was a 70% chance it would be launched before the end of 2016.
• Certain New Brunswick Liquor Limits were found to be unconstitutional.  I said there was a 20% chance that this would happen, which might have been too low.

Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• A federal law regulating assisted suicide has been passed, slightly after the Supreme Court extended deadline.  In February 2015, I said there was only a 20% chance that a law would not be passed before the existing law was struck down (in my post Assisted Suicide Law).  This may have been a bit too low.  In November 2015 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v2) , I said there was a 50% chance that the February 2016 deadline would be extended, as it was.  This might have been a slightly under-confident estimate.  In February 2016 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v3), I said there was a 25% chance that the existing law would expire, which again might have been too low of an estimate.  Finally, this June (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v4). I said there was a 40% chance a new assisted suicide law would be passed by the end of June.  Overall, I may have been too confident that a law would be passed by the deadline, but not confident enough that a law would be eventually passed.
• The federal government has created an Electoral Reform Committee.  I said there was a 45% chance that such a committee would be created by the end of June,
• A CPP Expansion Agreement has been reached (also see my post CPP Expansion Agreement v2).  Last December, I said there was a 25% chance of such an agreement being reached, which I later increased to 50%.  Both estimates may have been too low.

Federal Email v2

By the end of August 2017, will the new federal government email system be completed?
Yes: 60%
(Substantial completion is what counts; there can be a few departments not using the system, or a few features not yet released.)

Since my last post, there have been further delays in the roll-out of the new federal government email system (see article here).  However, progress seems to have been made, and it seems more likely than not that the roll-out will be complete by the end of next August.

Second Brexit Referendum

Before the end of August 2017, will another referendum be announced on the UK leaving the EU?
Yes: 15%

There has been some speculation that another Brexit referendum might be held, likely after negotiations have led to some new deal (see article here).  My sense is that this is possible, but unlikely, especially in the short time frame of this question.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 50%

Since my last post, more support has been expressed for supervised injection sites (see article here).  I am thus increasing my forecast.  However, the timeline for this question is still fairly tight.

Interest Rate July

What will be the result of the July 13th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 6%
Unchanged Rate: 91%
Rate Increase: 3%

After leaving rates unchanged in May, the Bank of Canada is expected to keep rates unchanged in July as well (see article here).  I tend to think a rate change is very unlikely, but a rate cut is more likely than a rate increase, given the fire in Fort McMurray.

Trans Mountain Pipeline

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal government approve the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion?
Yes: 65%

The Trans Mountain pipeline expansion was recently approved by the NEB (see article here). The federal government must now make a decision.  From this article, it sounds like the government has not yet made a decision.  I tend to think that it is slightly more likely than not that the government will approve the pipeline, given the NEB approval and the government's statements.

CPP Expansion Agreement v2

Before the end of 2016, will an substantive inter-provincial agreement be reached on expanding CPP?
Yes: 50%
(The agreement must involve the federal government and at least 7 provinces representing two-thirds of the Canadian population.  The agreement does not need to be a final agreement, or receive approval from federal or provincial parliaments, but must be more than an agreement to continue to study the options)

Another federal-provincial meeting is taking place on Monday regarding CPP expansion (see article here).  There seems to be more support for expansion than I noted in my previous post, with the BC premier now clearly supporting it.  I am thus increasing my odds of an agreement eventually being reached.

Canada Post Strike

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 40%
(If a new contract is ratified, this question will immediately close on No)

Contract negotiations are currently going on between Canada Post and its union, CUPW (see article here).  Canada Post has warned some customers of a "potential work stoppage" in early July, and some union officials have also indicated that a strike or lockout is imminent.  The last contract negotiations (in 2011) resulted in a 3-week strike.

The base rate of strikes is rather low, but the history in this case suggests a strike is more likely.  As well, both parties seem to be signalling that a strike is likely, although this is partly for show.  I am going with a fairly neutral forecast.

Assisted Suicide Law v4

When will a federal law regulating assisted suicide be passed?
Before the end of June: 40%
Between July 1st and December 31st: 30%
Not before the end of 2016: 30%

The June 6th deadline to pass a law regarding assisted suicide has been missed (see articles here and here).  The law has already been passed in the House of Commons, but the Senate has amended it, so the new version will have to be passed again.  The timeline seems to be "weeks".  It seems to me quite possible that a new law will take longer than that, and it is possible that no law will be passed at all in 2016.

Super Hornet Purchase

Before the end of August 2017, will the federal government officially announce that it will purchase Boeing Super Hornet fighters?
Yes: 55%
(The purchase itself does not need to take place by the end of August 2017.  Beginning a process that later leads to the purchase does not count.)

The federal government is currently considering purchasing several Boeing Super Hornet fighters, as a replacement for the current C-18 fighters (see articles here and here).  There is some controversy because the government is allegedly planning to sole-source the fighters, as opposed to holding an open competition.  The government has not yet officially made a decision, but one seems to be expected soon.  Given how slowly this issue moves, I am still less than confident that an official announcement will be made in the next year.

Sinkhole LRT Cause

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa officially state that LRT construction was responsible for the recent Rideau Street sinkhole?
Yes: 25%
(If the city officially rules out LRT construction, that counts as a No.  "Partial responsibility" counts)

There has been some speculation that the Rideau Street sinkhole was caused by LRT construction (see articles here and here).  The cause has not yet been determined, but LRT construction was going on in the area.  Officials have said LRT construction is unlikely to be the cause, but it has not been ruled out.

Rideau Street Re-opening

When will Rideau Street re-open to buses?
Before June 16th: 25%
Between June 16th and June 22nd: 40%
After June 22nd: 35%
(Re-opening to buses in a single direction counts)

Rideau Street was closed yesterday due to a sinkhole (see article here).  It is expected to open again in "one to two weeks".  I tend to think a later opening is more likely than an earlier one.

TPP Compensation

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government announce at least $2 billion in compensation to farmers for the TPP or CETA?
Yes: 40%
("Compensation to farmers" includes compensation to food processors, etc.)

The previous federal government announced that it would provide $4.3 billion in compensation for the TPP and CETA trade deals (see story here).  The current government has not indicated if it will ratify the TPP or what compensation will be provided.  I tend to think that the current government will eventually ratify the TPP and provide compensation, but it might not happen in the time period of this question, and it might be less than $2 billion.

Post-Mortem: Ottawa Politics

• Ottawa City Council voted to legalise ride-sharing services (see my posts Ride-Sharing Legalization and Ottawa Taxi Reform).  Last May, I said there was a 25% chance of the city or the province passing a law to legalise ride-sharing services by the end of 2016.  That may have been too low, given that the city was conducting a taxi review at the time.  After the City of Ottawa community and protective services committee approved a ride-sharing bylaw, I said there was an 80% chance the by-law would be passed by City Council, which seems reasonable.
• The Rendez Vous LeBreton proposal (which has the explicit cooperation of the Ottawa Senators)  has been selected by the NCC (see my posts Senators Lebreton Flats and Lebreton Flats Redevelopment).  Last January, I said there was a 25% chance of the proposal with Senators involvement being chosen, which may have been slightly too low (although there rumours of 4 or more proposals at that time).  Last December, I said there was a 50% chance of the  Rendez Vous LeBreton proposal being selected.  Overall, the process was smoother than I expected.
• The Rideau Carleton Raceway lockout has ended (see my post OLG Lockout v2).  I said there was a 25% chance it would end in May or June, and a 60% chance it would end before the end of June.  The timing is thus about what I expected.

Post-Mortem: Business

• The Charter Time Warner Merger has completed.  Last May, I said there was a 30% chance the deal would complete.  At that point, there was still substantial uncertainty over whether the deal would go through.  Still, a 50% estimate (based on market movements) might have been better than a 30% estimate.
• Staples and Office Depot abandoned their merger, after US regulatory opposition (see my post Staples Merger Case).  Last December, I said there was a 75% chance that the merger would be abandoned.
• The LCBO waterfront lands have been sold to Menkes Developments (see my post LCBO Land Sale).  Last December, I said there was a 85% chance a sale would happen before the end of 2016, and a 50% chance of a sale to a company other than Wittington Properties (which was one of the bidders).
• There were no Bank of Canada interest rate changes in April or May (see my posts Canada Interest Rate April and Canada Interest Rate May).  I said there was a 75% chance of no change in April, and a 85% chance of no change in May.  Overall, I think I may have been over-predicting change.

Post-Mortem: Federal Politics

• Canadian airstrikes in Syria were stopped by the end of March (see my post Syrian Airstrikes Canada).  Last November, I said there was a 75% chance that they would end by then, which seems reasonable.
• The government succeeded in bringing in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of February (see my post Syrian Refugee Timing v2).  Last December, I said they had a 60% chance of success, which might have been too low.  I was somewhat wary because the government had delayed the deadline from the end of December to the end of February.
• Deepak Chopra is still the (see my post Canada Post CEO Resignation).  Last December, I said there was a 65% chance he would stay in office through the end of February, after the government apparently asked him to resign.
• The Office of Religious Freedom has been closed.  In February, I said there was a 75% chance that this would happen, which might have been somewhat low.
• Liberal Membership Fees have been abolished.  A month ago, I said there was a 90% chance that this would happen, which seems about right.

Postal Days of Service

Will the panel examining Canada Post's operations recommend that it change the number of days of service?
Yes: 40%

There have been some suggestion that Canada Post might reduce the number of days of service (see article here).  This seems to be more likely than postal banking, but far from a sure thing.

Trump Tower Toronto

Before the end of June 2017, will the Trump Tower in Toronto be renamed?
Yes: 60%
(The renaming must remove Trump's name from the tower. A name like "T tower" would count for this purpose)

The Trump tower in Toronto is close to a sale, according to some recent reports (see article here).   It has been suggested that the new owner might change the Tower's name, although the Trump Organization claims that they can't do so.  Given the change in ownership, it seems likely to me that the tower will be renamed, even if the new owner retains some connection to the Trump Organization.  It is also possible that tower will be renamed eventually, even if it is not renamed immediately after the sale.

Mooney's Bay Playground

Before the end of 2016, will construction begin on the new proposed playground at Mooney's Bay?
Yes: 85%

The City of Ottawa recently entered into an agreement to build a new playground in Mooney's Bay Park, to some criticism (see articles here and here).  On Wednesday, city council decided to not debate the new playground.  Construction is to start in July, so it seems very likely that it will start by the end of the year.  Still, it is possible that Council will change its mind, and halt or delay construction.

Ontario Budget Deficit 2017

What will be the Ontario government budget balance for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, according to the 2017-2018 budget as originally tabled?
A surplus of more than $5 billion: 10%
A surplus of less than $5 billion: 40%
A deficit of less than $5 billion: 25%
A deficit of more than $5 billion: 25%

The Ontario government is projecting a modest surplus for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, after a projected deficit of $4.3 billion in 2016-2017 (see articles here and here).  The projection seems reasonable, according to Ontario's Financial Accountability Officer.  This year, the government's projected deficit for 2016-2017 decreased from the 2015 budget to the 2016 budget.

I think the most likely outcome is a small surplus.  However, unexpected events could lead to a relatively large deficit, or at least a small deficit.  A large surplus seems unlikely.

Canada Post Banking

Will the panel examining Canada Post's operations recommend that it enter the banking business?
Yes: 25%
(If the panel is dismissed without offering any recommendations, that will count as a No)

The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here).  The postal union has suggested that Canada Post re-enter the banking business.  The government has not ruled out this suggestion.  Based on my general tendency to guess the continuation of the status quo, I think that the panel will not recommend that Canada Post enter banking.

Canada Post Community Mailboxes v2

Before the end of June 2017, what will be officially announced regarding Canada Post's community mailbox conversion program?
Community mailbox conversions will resume: 20%
No Announcement will be made: 45%
Home delivery will be restored in some areas: 35%
(see my post Canada Post Community Mailboxes for conditions)

The federal government has formed a panel to study Canada Post's operations (see article here).  Given the amount of time that has passed, it now seems more likely to me that the government will ultimately decide for the status quo for home delivery.  Contrariwise, continued community mailbox conversions seem less likely.

Electoral Reform Legislation

Before the end of June 2017, will federal electoral reform legislation be introduced?
Yes: 60%
(Legislation to hold a referendum would count, but legislation that makes small changes to the electoral system would not.)

The federal government has formed a committee to study electoral reform options (see article here).  It had previously promised to introduce legislation within 18 months of forming the government.  At this point, that seems fairly ambitious, although still possible.

Photo Radar Ottawa v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the province approve the City of Ottawa's request to use photo radar?
Yes: 70%
(If the city withdraws the request before the province makes a decision, that counts as a "No",  The province does not need to approve the request unconditionally for a "Yes".)

The City of Ottawa is asking the province for permission to use photo radar in school zones (see article here).  The province has expressed willingness to approve such proposals.  My sense is that the City's request will probably be approved in the relatively near future.

Presto Rate Ottawa

What rate will Metrolinx and the City of Ottawa agree on for Presto services?
3% or less: 10%
Between 3% and 5%: 20%
Between 5% and 7%: 40%
Between 7% and 9%: 20%
More than 9%: 10%
(This question will close when an agreement is reached.  If the parties fail to reach an agreement by the end of 2017, the question will be voided.  The percentage is based on the percentage of Presto fares; if an agreement is reached on some other basis, it will be converted to a percentage of Presto fares.)

The City of Ottawa and Metrolinx are currently in discussions regarding the fee paid for Presto services (see articles here and here).  The City currently pays 2% of Presto fares to Metrolinx,  Metrolinx wants 10%, and the city has budgeted 4% going forward.  The TTC pays 5.25%.  It seems most likely that the City will eventually pay a fee in the 5% to 7% range, although it is possible they might end up paying more or less than that.  A fee of less than 3% seems unlikely, as does a fee of greater than 9%.

Civic Hospital Site

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government and the Ottawa Hospital announce a new site on the Central Experimental Farm for the Civic Campus?
Yes: 40%
(A specific site must be chosen, and the announcement must have the agreement of both parties.)

The Ottawa Hospital is currently considering 4 sites for a new Civic Campus, 3 of which are on the Central Experimental Farm (see article here).  I'm not sure what the expected timeline is to be, but it seems likely that a site on the Farm will eventually be chosen.  However, it may not happen in the next year.

MTS Sale v2

Before the end of June 2017, will the proposed acquisition of MTS by Bell close?
Yes: 70%

Bell has announced that it plans to take-over MTS, a Manitoba telecom (see articles here and here).  The deal is expected to close in "early 2017".  There seems to be some political opposition to the deal due to competition concerns.  Still, it seems more likely than not that the deal will close on schedule.

Mitel-Polycom Merger

Before the end of 2016, will the proposed merger between Mitel and Polycom close?
Yes: 85%

Mitel and Polycom have announced that they plan to merge (see article here).  The merger is expected to close in the third quarter, but still needs approval from regulators and shareholders.  My sense is that this approval is largely a formality.  However, the merger could still be called off if market conditions change significantly.

Post-Mortem: Elections

• The Saskatchewan Party won the Saskatchewan Election (also see my post Saskatchewan Election v2).  Last September, I said they had a 90% chance of winning, which I recently increased to 95%.  I might have been slightly overconfident.
• The PCs won the Manitoba Election (also see my post Manitoba Election v2).  Last September, I said there was an 80% chance that they would win the election, which I increased to 91% in March.  These numbers seem about right.
• Mulcair lost the NDP leadership review (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In December, I said there was a 65% chance that Mulcair would lose.  That might have been a bit low, given the low level of support received by Mulcair.

Post-Mortem: Courts

• Jian Ghomeshi was acquitted in his recent trial (see my post Jian Ghomeshi Verdict).  I said there was a 65% chance that this would happen, which might have been a bit low given how strongly the conventional wisdom at the time suggested that Ghomeshi would be acquitted.
• Mike Duffy was acquitted on all counts (see my posts Mike Duffy Verdict and Mike Duffy Jail Time).  I said there was a 15% chance that he would be completely acquitted, and a 65% chance that he wouldn't face jail time.  The 15% estimate might have been too low, although complete acquittal didn't seem like what the conventional wisdom suggested at the time.
• The Supreme Court found mandatory minimum drug sentences unconstitutional (see my post SC Drug Sentences).  Last May, I said there was a 70% chance that this would be the Supreme Court's finding, which may have been a bit conservative.

Post-Mortem: Business Questions

• Allstream was sold to Zayo Group (see my post Allstream Sale).  Last September, I said there was 65% chance that Allstream would be sold by the end of this August, and a 15% (unconditional) chance that Allstream would be sold to some company other than Rogers, Bell, or Telus.  As usual, I might have given the "Other" option too small of a chance.
• Rexall is being acquired by McKesson Corp. (see my post Rexall Acquisition).  Last September, I said there was a 15% chance that Rexall would be acquired by the end of 2016.  I'm not sure this wasn't a bad estimate; acquisitions aren't that common, and there didn't seem to be any specific information suggesting that Rexall was going to be acquired soon.
• The Canadian Oil Sands Acquisition by Suncor has closed.  Last October, I said there was a 50% chance that Canadian Oil Sands would be acquired by the end of 2016, and a 20% chance that Suncor would acquire them.  Given that Suncor was actively pursing Canadian Oil Sands at the time, these numbers may have been a bit low.
• The Corus-Shaw Deal has closed.  In March, before it received regulatory approval, I said there was a 75% chance it would close, which seems reasonable.
• The CP-NS merger has been called off.  I said there was a 20% chance the merger would go through in 2016, which seems reasonable.

Liberal Membership Fees

Before the end of June 2016, will the federal Liberal Party decide to abolish membership fees?

Yes: 90%

The Liberals are currently considering abolishing membership fees (see article here).  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed support for the change, as has the national board of the Liberal Party.  However, the proposal still needs to receive approval from the party at large in its May convention.  This seems like it should be a formality.

Canada Interest Rate May

What will be the result of the May 25th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 5%
Unchanged Rate: 85%
Rate Increase: 10%

The Bank of Canada declined to change interest rates at its April meeting (see article here).  The expectation seems to be that the rate will continue to be unchanged for the near future.  If the Bank does change the rate, it seems that a rate hike is more likely than a rate cut (see article here).

Electoral Reform Committee

When will the federal government create a electoral reform committee?
Before the end of June 2016: 45%
Between July and December 2016: 35%
Not in 2016: 20%

The federal government has promised to table electoral reform legislation within 18 months of forming the government, after forming a committee to study options (see article here).  They have not yet formed a committee.  I think they will do so in the relatively near future.

Marijuana Legalization

Before the end of June 2017, will a federal law legalizing marijuana be passed?
Yes: 45%
(A yes answer requires the law to receive royal assent)

The federal government has promised to introduce legislation legalizing marijuana by "spring 2017" (see article here).  They seemed to have delayed somewhat in creating legislation, so it is quite possible that they will not be able to introduce legislation by then (or at least pass it by the end of next June).

Rural Stormwater Fee Ottawa

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa introduce a separate fee for stormwater services in areas without sewer or water services?
Yes: 55%
(A general increase in property taxes to pay for stormwater services would not count for the purpose of this question.  A "Yes" answer only requires a decision by the city to introduce a fee, not the actual introduction of a fee)

There has been some controversy over a City of Ottawa proposal to introduce a fee for stormwater services in rural areas (see article here).  The city is currently considering options, and will report back in June at the earliest.  My sense is that some sort of new fee will likely be introduced, but it may not be a separate stormwater services fee.

Supervised Injection Site Ottawa

Before the end of June 2017, will the federal government approve a supervised injection site in Ottawa?
Yes: 15%

The Sandy Hill Community Health Centre is seeking federal approval for a supervised injection site (see article here).  With the appropriate approval, the Centre hopes to open the site by "spring 2017".  The mayor and police chief are opposed, but some councillors and the medical officer of health support it.  I think the lack of approval from municipal authorities will be sufficient to stop this proposal, or at least delay it beyond the end date of this question.

Toronto Taxi Reform

Before the end of 2016, will Toronto City Council legalize ride-sharing companies such as Uber?
Yes: 30%
(For purposes of this question, legalization means allowing Uber to operate as it is now doing without burdensome restrictions.  The bylaw proposed by city staff would count as legalization, while the one proposed by the licensing and standards committee would not)

The Toronto Licensing and Standards Committee recently considered a bylaw that would have legalized ride-sharing companies such as Uber (see article here).  It decided to remove the section legalizing Uber, and sent the law on to City Council.  City Council could presumably bring back the removed section, if desired.  Toronto Mayor John Tory has expressed some support for the original by-law.  Given the decision of the city committee, I think that City Council will ultimately decide not to legalize Uber.

Mulcair Interim Leader

Before the end of 2016, will Tom Mulcair permanently leave the office of interim leader?
Yes: 15%

Mulcair lost the NDP leadership review last weekend, with only 48% support.  At the same time, he announced he would stay on as NDP interim leader until the leadership convention, which could be up to 2 years from now.  This has caused some complaining by NDP insiders, including Vancouver MP Don Davies (see article here), although he has received support from the NDP caucus to stay on (see article here).  It is possible that Mulcair will bow to pressure to step down before the convention.  I think he will decide to stay in the interim leadership until the leadership convention.

Cameron Resignation

Before the end of 2016, will David Cameron resign or otherwise leave office as Prime Minister of the UK?
Yes: 10%

There have been calls for British PM David Cameron to resign, because of allegations that he profited from an offshore account  (see article here).  From what I can tell, this is a fairly low-level scandal that is unlikely to lead to Cameron's resignation on its own.  Still, in the remainder of 2016, Cameron could leave office for some other reason.

Ottawa Taxi Reform

Before the end of June 2016, will Ottawa City Council approve the proposed reforms to taxi regulations?
Yes: 80%

On Friday, the City of Ottawa community and protective services committee approved a number of regulations to reform the taxi industry (see article here).  The issue goes before the full City Council on Wednesday.  Ottawa mayor Jim Watson is supportive of the changes, as is committee chair Diane Deans.  However, a number of councillors appear to be opposed.  My sense is that the reforms will be approved, although it is possible that the opposition will be significant enough to block the reforms (or delay approval beyond the end of June).

EU Visa Requirements

Before the end of March 2017, will the European Union require Canadians to have a visa to travel to the EU?
Yes: 15%
(The requirements have to actually be in place by the end of March 2017.  If a visa requirement is imposed and later rescinded, that counts for this question.)

There seems to be some suggestion that the EU might force Canadians to apply for a visa when travelling to the EU (see articles here and here).  The main issue seems to be that Canada requires visas for Romanians and Bulgarians.  The impression I get from both articles is that a visa requirement is unlikely to be imposed, because it would cut into tourism.  As well, even if a requirement is imposed, it sounds like it would take a long time; the CBC article mentions "late 2016 or early 2017" as the earliest a visa requirement could be imposed.

Budget Post-Mortem

• The budget was released on March 22 (see my post Federal Budget Timing).  I said there was a 35% chance that it would be released in the week of March 21st, and that week was the one I thought the budget would most likely be released in.
• The federal budget deficit for 2016 is $29.4 billion (see my posts Balanced Budget 2016, Balanced Budget 2016 v2, Federal Budget Deficit, Federal Budget Deficit v2, and Federal Budget Deficit v3).  In my initial prediction last April, I said there was a 35% chance of an unbalanced budget.  During the election campaign, I decreased that to 25%, because of the NDP pledge to run balanced budgets.  After the election, I said there was a 70% chance of a budget deficit larger than $10 billion.  In February, after the fiscal update, I projected a 30% chance of a deficit larger than $25 billion, and a 90% chance of a deficit smaller than $30 billion.  Just before the budget was released, I said there was a 85% chance of a deficit larger than $20 billion, and a 50% chance of a deficit smaller than $30 billion. Overall, I generally underestimated the size of the budget deficit, and I may have under-reacted to news suggesting that the budget deficit would be smaller than expected.
• The Liberals are repealing income-splitting for parents (see my post Income-Splitting Repeal)..  Last April, I said there was a 35% chance that this would happen.
• The budget announced a 1.61% 2017 EI premium rate (see my post EI Premium Rate 2017).  In December, I said there was a 35% chance of a 2017 EI premium rate between 1.6% and 1.7%, and I thought this was the most likely range,

Post-Mortem: Ottawa Questions

• The Ottawa Jail Strike was averted.  In mid-December, I said there was a 60% chance of an agreement by the end of April, and a 75% chance of no strike by then.  I may have been a bit pessimistic about how long it would take to reach an agreement.
• The Rideau Canal Opening was in January.  In late December, I said there was a 75% chance of the canal opening in January, as it almost always does.  Perhaps I should have paid more attention here to the base rate; the canal has only opened later than January once in its history.
• The Ottawa OMB Appeal was not successful.  I said there was a 70% chance of non-success.  This might be one of the cases where I was under-confident.
• The OLG Lockout continued beyond the end of February.  In December, I said there was only a 15% chance of the lockout lasting that long.

Economic Question Post-Mortem

There are a bunch of economic questions that have resolved in the past few months.

• Canadian GDP Growth in 2015 was 1.2% (see data here).  That fell within my 1% to 2% range, which I gave a 25% chance of.  Overall, I gave a 40% chance of GDP growth being lower than 2%.
• US Economic Growth in 2015 was 2.4% (see data here).  I gave a 22% chance of 2% to 3% growth, and a 55% chance of growth lower than 3%.
• Canadian Inflation in 2015 was 1.6% (see data here).  I said there was a 35% chance of an inflation rate between 1% and 2%, and a 65% chance of an inflation rate below 2%, so this is in line with what I expected.
• In January, the Bank of Canada didn't change the main interest rate (see my posts Canada Interest Rate January and Canada Interest Rate January v2).  I originally said that there was an 85% chance of an unchanged rate, which I later decreased to 47%.  This is one of those unusual cases where my initial prediction was better than my later predictions, and I may have over-reacted to later news.
• The Bank didn't change the interest rate in March either (see my post Canada Interest Rate March).  I said there was a 65% chance of an unchanged rate.

Overall, my economic projections might have overestimated the variance of economic variables; all of the predictions here fell in one of the middle ranges (counting "unchanged rate" as a middle range), which would be expected to happen by chance only 3.6% of the time, if my probabilities were correct.

Federal Budget Deficit 2017

What will be the federal government budget deficit for the 2017-2018 fiscal year, according to the 2017-2018 budget as originally tabled?
Less than $20 billion: 15%
Between $20 and $30 billion: 20%
Between $30 and $40 billion: 30%
More than $40 billion: 35%

The 2016 budget projects a $29 billion budget deficit in 2017 (see link here).   The government's economic estimates seem to be somewhat pessimistic, but they might continue to be so for the actual budget.  In addition, the government might increase spending more than current projections indicate.  I think the deficit is more likely than not to be larger than forecast.

Ontario Prorogation

 Before the end of June 2016, will the government of Ontario prorogue the Ontario legislature?
Yes: 40%

There is some speculation that the government will prorogue the Ontario legislature (see article here).  The government has not denied that it will do so, but has also not indicated that it will.  The article makes it sound like prorogation is almost a sure thing, but I am reluctant to assign a high probability given that most speculated events of this type don't actually happen.

Maple Syrup Quota Quebec

Before the end of March 2017, will the Quebec government officially announce that it is ending its maple syrup quota system?
Yes: 25%

A recent report called for the Quebec government to end its maple syrup quota (see article here).  Some maple syrup producers seem to support the quota, while others seem to be opposed.  My default position in this sort of case is to guess that the current status quo will continue, especially over the relatively short time frame of this question.

Federal Carbon Price

Before the end of March 2017, will the federal government announce a national carbon price?
Yes: 15%
(A federal carbon tax would count, as would a national cap-and-trade system.  The price does not need to made into law or implemented by the end of March 2017)

The federal government recently held a meeting with provincial premiers about the idea of a national carbon price (see articles here and here).  The meeting seems to have been somewhat inconclusive.  At this point, it does not look likely the federal government will proceed with a national carbon price in the near future.

Photo Radar Ottawa

Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa ask the government of Ontario for permission to use photo radar?
Yes: 30%

The City of Ottawa is currently considering asking the province for permission to use photo radar (see article here).  The main proponent seems to be councillor Riley Brockington; mayor Jim Watson seems to be opposed.  At this point, I don't think that the city will ultimately end up asking for photo radar, at least this year, but it is possible that they will if there is enough community pressure.

Manitoba Election v2

Which party will the most seats in the next Manitoba provincial election?
PC: 91%
NDP: 5%
Liberal: 4%

Since my last post, the PCs and NDP have slipped slightly in the polls, and the Liberals have gained slightly (see article here).  The PCs still have a substantial lead however, so I am increasing my confidence for a PC win.

Eli El-Chantiry Resignation

Before the end of 2016, will Eli El-Chantiry permanently leave the office of Ottawa Police Services Board Chair?
Yes: 15%

The head of the police union has asked the chair of the police services board, Eli El-Chantiry, to resign (see article here).  El-Chantiry has said he does not plan to resign.  There doesn't seem to be much of a reason for him to do so, so I am giving a low estimate.

Federal Budget Deficit v3

What will be the federal government budget deficit for the 2016-2017 fiscal year, according to the budget as originally tabled?
Less than $20 billion: 15%
Between $20 and $30 billion: 35%
Between $30 and $40 billion: 30%
More than $40 billion: 20%

Since my last post, expectations for the budget deficit seemed to have increased slightly (see article here).  Some have recommended a deficit as large as $40 billion, and the median now seems to be about $30 billion,  I am increasing my estimate accordingly.

Supervised Injection Site Toronto

Before the end of June 2016, will the City Council of Toronto approve public consultations about opening a supervised drug injection site?
Yes: 60%

Toronto's officer of health has called for Toronto to open three supervised drug injection sites (see article here).  The next step seems to be holding public consultations.  Toronto mayor John Tory seems to be vaguely supportive, while the police union is opposed.  I think that public consultations likely will take place, but this does not seem to be completely certain.

Canada Interest Rate April

What will be the result of the April 13th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 20%
Unchanged Rate: 75%
Rate Increase: 5%

The Bank of Canada decided to leave rates unchanged on March 9th (see article here).  The most likely outcome in April seems to be that the Bank will leave rates unchanged, but there seems to be some possibility that rates will be lowered, depending on the amount of stimulus spending in the budget.

Corus-Shaw Deal

Before the end of 2016, will Corus's deal to buy Shaw Media close?
Yes: 75%
(The deal ultimately reached must be substantially similar to the currently proposed deal.  If the current deal is abandoned, this question will close as a "No")

Corus Entertainment has made an offer to buy Shaw Media (see articles here and here).  The deal recently received approval from Corus shareholders, and CRTC approval is expected later this month.  It seems quite likely that the deal will close before the end of the year, given the current pace of events.  Having said that, Bell's previous purchase of Astral media, which was similar in scale, apparently had more than a year of regulatory delays.

OLG Lockout v2

When will an agreement be reached between OLG and its employees at the Rideau Carleton Raceway?
Before the end of April: 35%
In May or June: 25%
In July or August: 15%
Not before the end of August 2016: 25%
(In order for the agreement to count, it must be ratified by OLG workers.  However, the relevant date is the date of the agreement being reached, not the date of ratification)

There has still been no settlement to the lockout at Rideau Carleton Raceway (see article here, and my previous post here).  I still think a settlement is likely relatively soon, but I am more pessimistic than I was, given the apparent lack of progress.

Via Federal Rail Car Funding

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will provide at least $1 billion for Via to buy new rail cars?
Yes: 65%

There has been speculation that Via will receive federal funding to buy new rail cars (see article here).  The federal Minister of Transport has hinted, but not confirmed, that there will be funding in the budget.  This seems very likely to happen, but it is possible it might not happen this year.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Global Miscellaneous

• The Islamic State's actions in Palmyra count as destruction, in my view (see my post IS Palmyra).  I said there was a 40% chance of such destruction.  In hindsight, this question was a bit too vague as to what counted as destruction.
• There was a Puerto Rico Default in August.  In May, I said there was a 20% chance of such a default.  I'm not sure if this was too low or not.
• Russia did not withdraw its ambassador to Turkey (see my post Russian Ambassador Turkey).  In November, I said there was a 25% chance of such a withdrawal, which might have been too high.
• There was also no Turkish apology for the downing of the Russian fighter jet (see my post Turkish Apology Russia).  I said there was a 25% chance of this as well.
• There was no US law approving the Keystone XL pipeline in 2015 (see my post Keystone XL Approval).  I said there was a 20% chance of such a law.
• The US repealed its country of origin meat-labelling laws in December (see my post US Meat Labelling Laws).  In May, I said there was a 25% chance of such a repeal in fall 2015, and a 65% chance of a repeal before the end of the year.  I think those estimates were about right.
• I have decided to void my Paris Climate Deal Binding question, as there are differing reports as to whether the deal is binding,  I should have been more specific with this question.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Global Leaders and Elections

• Pierre Nkurunziza has kept the presidency of Burundi (see my post Nkurunziza in Burundi).  In May, I said there was a 35% chance of him leaving office, which may have been too conservative.
• Tammam Salam has remained leader of Lebannon (see my post Tammam Salam Leaving Office).  In August, I said there was a 30% chance he would leave office, which might have been too high, since these leader exit questions rarely trigger.
• The People's Party won the most seats in the Spanish Election.  In June, I said there was a 30% chance of this; I probably overestimated the chances of Podemos winning the most seats at that time.
• The Venezuela election was held on December 6th, and resulted in a victory for the MUD coalition (see my posts Venezuelan Election Date and Venezuelan Election Result).  In June, I said there was a 75% chance that an election would be held in 2015.  In July, I said there was a 70% chance that MUD would win the election.
• As far as I can tell, the For the Love of Egypt bloc won the most seats in the Egyptian Parliamentary Election.  I said there was a 35% chance that this would happen, and this was the most likely outcome according to my scoring.
• There was no Libyan Unity Government in 2015.  In October, I said there was a 20% chance such a government would be formed.

Year-End Post Mortem: Canadian Politics

• The Liberals won the NL Election in December.  In March, I said they had a 90% chance of winning.
• The new House Speaker is Geoff Regan.  I gave him a 20% chance of winning, as I gave two other similar candidates, so this is not a great surprise.
• The government has announced a TFSA Limit Contraction.  In April, I said there was a 20% chance of this happening.  I gave a low estimate at that time because I thought the Conservatives might stay in power, and that whoever replaced them might move slowly or not at all in decreasing the TFSA contribution limit.
• The federal government has agreed to resettle more than 30,000 Syrian refugees (see my post Syrian Refugee Resettlement).  I said there was a 40% chance of this large a number in September, which seems reasonable if a bit low.
• The federal government did not succeed in bringing in 25,000 (or 20,000) Syrian refugees by the end of the year (see my post Syrian Refugee Timing).  In November, I said there was a 65% chance of success.

Year-End Post Mortem: Miscellaneous

• Whole Foods was apparently fined $30,000 for being open on Good Friday (see article here, and my post Whole Foods Fine).  I said there was a 20% chance of a fine larger than $10,000.  This was a very awkward question, because I couldn't find any reference to the fine until well after the question close date; I will choose less obscure questions in the future.
• The Ottawa Airport taxi strike ended in December (see my post Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike v2).  In mid-October, I said there was a 35% chance of it ending in late November or December, and a 65% chance of it ending before the end of 2015.  I think those numbers were approximately reasonable.
• The Ontario government has not required a Beer Store Franchise Fee.  In January 2015, I said there was a 60% chance of such a fee being required.  This was one of those cases where I focussed too much on a single proposed suggestion; the government decided to change the liquor licensing system in other ways instead.
• At the beginning of 2016, both CraveTV and Shomi were available to all Canadians (see my post CraveTV / Shomi Restrictions).  In March 2015, I said there was a 18% chance of this occurring, which might have been too low.  At that time, there were definitely signs that Shomi would expand availability, and that would plausibly force CraveTV to do so also.  On the other hand, this was a very close question; CraveTV only expanded availability at the beginning of the year.
• The BOC interest rate in December was unchanged (see my post Canada Interest Rate December).  I said there was an 80% chance of this occurring, which might have been too low.

Saskatchewan Election v2

Which party will win the most seats in the next Saskatchewan general election?
Saskatchewan Party: 95%
NDP: 5%

The Saskatchewan Election will be held on April 4th, about a month from now (see my previous post here, and 308's coverage here).  The Saskatchewan Party has slipped slightly in the most recent poll, and the NDP have gained; the Saskatchewan Party now only has a 52% to 34% lead.  However, the NDP are running out of time to make further gains, so I am increasing my confidence in a Saskatchewan Party victory.

AECL Case

Will the Supreme Court decide that the dismissal of Joseph Wilson was unjust?
Yes: 35%

The Supreme Court is currently in the process of deciding on the case of Joseph Wilson, an AECL employee who was fired in 2009 without cause (see articles here and here).  The original adjudicator found in his favour, but the Federal Court and Federal Court of Appeal concluded that the dismissal was not unjust.  I think that is what the Supreme Court will side with the lower courts, but there seems to be a fair amount of uncertainty, given the conflicting rulings.

Federal Budget Deficit v2

What will be the federal government budget deficit for the 2016-2017 fiscal year, according to the budget as originally tabled?
Less than $15 billion: 5%
Between $15 and $20 billion: 15%
Between $20 and $25 billion: 50%
Between $25 and $30 billion: 20%
More than $30 billion: 10%

The federal government is projecting a deficit of $18.4 billion in 2016-2017, before new spending programs are accounted for (see story here).  There is speculation that the deficit could be large as $29 million (see story here).

It seems likely that the deficit will be in the $20 to $25 billion range, given additional spending; that would allow the Liberals to fulfil their promise of reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio.  A larger deficit is possible if the Liberals want to spend more, and a smaller deficit is possible if conditions improve.  A deficit larger than $30 billion seems unlikely, as does a deficit significantly smaller than the most recent projection.

Assisted Suicide Law v3

Before June 6th, 2016, what will happen with regards to Canada's assisted suicide law?
A new law will be passed regulating assisted suicide: 65%
The current law will be extended by the Supreme Court: 10%
The current law will expire: 25%

Since my previous post on this topic, the Supreme Court has extended the old law prohibiting assisted suicide by four months (the government wanted six months - see article here).  A further extension seems unlikely to be granted, given the circumstances.  It seems more likely that the current law will expire without a new law coming into force (if only for a short period of time).  However, since that would reflect badly on the government, the most likely outcome is for a new law to be passed.

Apple San Bernardino Opening

Before the end of 2016, will Apple help the FBI to open the iPhone owned by one of the San Bernardino shooters?
Yes: 20%
(If there is no media reporting, a "No" answer will be assumed.  If the US government opens the phone without the help of Apple, that counts as a "No" as well)

A US judge has ordered Apple to open an iPhone owned by one of the San Bernardino shooters (see article here).  Apple has vowed to fight the court order.  This question could trigger if Apple fails in subsequent appeals, or changes its mind and decides to comply with the order.  I think that subsequent appeals will probably go beyond 2016, and Apple is rather unlikely to change its mind.  As well, it is possible that the US government will just open the iPhone on their own if the appeals drag on too long.

Austrian Presidential Election

Who will win the Austrian Presidential Election?
Alexander Van der Bellen: 35%
Rudolf Hundstorfer: 20%
Irmgard Griss: 15%
Norbert Hofer: 15%
Someone Else: 15%

The Austrian Presidential Election will be held in April, with a second round in May (see Wikipedia Article here).  Alexander Van der Bellen seems to be currently leading in the polls, with Irmgard Griss in second and Rudolf Hundstorfer in third.  I'm giving Hundstorfer higher odds because he seems to be associated with a major party.

Libyan Intervention Canada

By the end of 2016, will the federal government announce a military intervention by Canada in Libya?
Yes: 35%
("Military intervention" should be construed broadly)

The Defence Minister, Harjit Sajjan, has hinted that Canada may intervene in Libya against ISIS (see article here).  This seems like a definite possibility, but I am reluctant to go with a higher than 50% probability in the relatively short time frame of this question.

Jian Ghomeshi Verdict

Will Jian Ghomeshi be found guilty of any of the charges against him?
Yes: 35%
(The initial verdict in the current trial is all that matters.)

Jian Ghomeshi is currently on trial for the sexual assault of several women (see articles here and here).  The current consensus seems to be that Ghomeshi will not be found guilty, because the defence did a good job in raising doubts about the main witnesses' credibility.  At the same time, the consensus seems to be that Ghomensi would be found guilty on a "balance of probabilities" basis.  Due to the latter, I am giving a higher estimate than I would otherwise give.

Peruvian Election

Who will win the next Peruvian presidential election?
Keiko Fujimori: 60%
Julio Guzmán: 10%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK): 10%
César Acuña: 10%
Someone Else: 10%

The first round of the Peruvian election is scheduled for April (with a second round in June).  The most recent poll gives Fujimori about 39% of the vote, Guzmán about 20%, PPK about 13%, and Acuña about 9% (see Wikipedia article here).  Fujimori is the clear favorite; she only narrowly lost the last election, and has a huge lead in the polls.  Guzmán has rapidly climbed in the polls recently, so I think that he is less likely to win than his standing in the polls suggests.  PPK and Acuña seem to be the main challengers; both could plausibly win if they gain a lot in the polls.  Also, one of the minor candidates could gain enough ground to win; I do not know enough about Peruvian politics to rule this out.

Office of Religious Freedom

Before the end of 2016, will the closure of the federal Office of Religious Freedom be announced?
Yes: 75%
(Failing to renew the office's funding counts as an announcement for purposes of this question.  A reduction in funding alone does not count)

There has been speculation that the federal government will close the Office of Religious Freedom, which was established by the previous Conservative government (see article here).  Funding for the office runs out this year.  I think that the Office is most likely to close, although its political support could keep it open.

Federal Budget Timing

When will the Canadian federal budget be presented to parliament?
Before March 14th: 10%
The week of March 14th: 25%
The week of March 21st: 35%
The week of March 28th: 20%
After April 3rd: 10%

The federal budget is expected to be presented in mid to late March (see articles here and here).  There seems to be some speculation that the "third week of March" (the week of March 21st, probably) is particularly likely.  Historically, the 2011 budget was (originally) presented on March 22nd, the 2012 budget was presented on March 29th, and the 2013 budget was presented on March 21st (the 2014 budget was in February, while the 2015 budget was in April).

The 2016 budget is for the fiscal year starting April 1st, so it will likely be presented as close to April as possible, without being in April.  Thus, the week of March 21st is the most likely.  The week of March 28th is too late, as is anytime in April.  The week of March 14th is quite possible, although it is slightly less likely than the week of March 21st.  The budget could also be released in early March, although there may not be enough time for this to happen.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Crime

• There were fewer Ottawa Shooting Incidents in 2015 then 2014 (also see my post Ottawa Shootings v2).  In January, I said there was a 75% chance of this, which I decreased to 60% in November.  I think my initial estimate was reasonable, but I may have over-reacted in November.
• There has been no announcement regarding the closure of the main Nunuvut Jail.  I said there was a 25% chance of such an announcement, which was almost certainly too high; closing the jail would have been an extreme step to take.
• As far as I can tell, there has been no permanent ban on Toronto Police Carding.  I said there was a 70% chance of such a ban.  This was definitely an overestimate; the status quo (of an extended temporary ban, in this case) is almost always the most likely outcome for this sort of question.
• There was no lethal terrorist attacks in Canada in 2015 (see my post Terrorism in Canada).  In January, I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably about right.
• There was no lethal Islamist Terrorism in the EU in 2015 after November 23rd.  I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably too high.
• Salah Abdeslam, one of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks, has not been apprehended (see my post Salah Abdeslam Apprehension).  On November 27th, I said there was a 70% chance he would be apprehended by the end of the year, which was probably too high.

Year-End Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• There were no Senate Appointments before the new government was sworn in.  In July, I said there was a 30% chance of such appointments, which might have been too high,
• Trudeau didn't leave the leadership by the end of the year (see my post Trudeau Liberal Party Leader).  In September, I said there was a 15% chance of this happening.  This might have been a reasonable estimate; if the Liberals had done very badly in the election, Trudeau might well have left.
• Mulcair didn't leave the leadership by the end of the year either (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In September, I said there was a 20% chance that he'd leave.  Given that the NDP did very badly in the election, but Mulcair still didn't leave, that estimate might have been too high.
• The federal government has announced it plans to make Federal Electoral Changes.  In July, I said there was a 50% chance of such an announcement.  Most of the uncertainty in this question was uncertainty about who the government would be.

Year-End Post Mortem: Economics

I'm going to go back to the backlog of questions that resolved at the end of the year.  Today, I'll focus on the economics questions.

• The Canadian Dollar was at 72 cents US at the end of the year, which fits in my lowest category of less than 80 cents (see also Canadian Dollar v2).  In my original post in January 2015, I said there was a 25% chance of this low of a value, which I later increased to 50%.  II might have underestimated the variability in the Canadian dollar.
• The Canada Overnight Rate was 0.5% at the end of the year, which fitted into my category of 0.75% or lower (see also Canada Overnight Rate v2).  Before the January rate cut, I said there was a 15% chance of a rate that low, which I later increased to 70%.  Again, I might have initially underestimated the chance of a rate cut.
• The US Federal Funds Rate target range was 0.25% to 0.5% at the end of the year.  I said there was a 25% chance of a rate that low.  Again, I might have overestimated the probability of a significant rate increase.
• The Oil Price at the end of the year was in the $30 to $50 range.  I said that there was a 27% chance of a price in this range, and a 33% chance of a price less than $50.  This was not an obviously inaccurate prediction.
• The Ottawa Gas Price was 91.5 cents/L at the end of 2015, according to the Ontario Ministry of Energy.  I said there was a 25% chance of a price between 90 and 100 cents per litre, and a 45% chance of a price below 100 cents per litre.  Again, this prediction seems to have been reasonable.

Dominican Republic Election

Who will win the Dominican Republic Presidential Election?
Danilo Medina: 77%
Luis Abinader: 20%
Someone Else: 3%
(If one of the named candidates dies or is incapacitated and is explicitly replaced by another candidate, that candidate success shall count as the named candidates success)

The Dominican Republic presidential election will take place in May, with a second round if necessary in June.  The current president, Danilo Medina, appears to have a significant lead, with around 50% of the vote, in comparison to 35% for his nearest challenger Luis Abinader (see article here).  I think the incumbent will likely win.

Mandatory Victim Surcharges

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government introduce legislation to end mandatory victim surcharges?
Yes: 60%
(A partial repeal counts.  The legislation doesn't need to actually pass in 2016, merely be introduced)

There has been some speculation that the federal government will undo the mandatory victim surcharges introduced by the previous Conservative government (see story here),  As far as I can tell, the Liberals have not explicitly promised to do so.  However, it seems likely that they will do so eventually, if not necessarily in 2016.

Evergreen Line Opening

When will the Evergreen Line in Metro Vancouver open?
In 2016: 5%
In January or February 2017: 25%
In March or April 2017: 25%
In May or June 2017: 20%
Not before the end of June 2017: 25%
(This question is about the start of regular commercial service, not just testing.  The entire line does not need to open, just a significant part of it.)

The Evergreen Line is a under-construction rail transit line in Metro Vancouver.  Service was originally supposed to start on it in fall 2016, but has been pushed back to "Early 2017" (see article here).  I think the line will probably before the end of April 2017, although it could open later than that.  Most of the construction seems to already be complete, so further delays seem less likely.  I think the line is very unlikely to open early.

Canada Interest Rate March

What will be the result of the March 9th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 30%
Unchanged Rate: 65%
Rate Increase: 5%

The Bank of Canada decided to leave rates unchanged on January 20th (see article here).  This was expected by about half of analysts.  In March, I still think that the Bank is most likely to keep rates unchanged, but an interest rate cut seems like a real possibility, given that one was half-expected in January.

Zibi Move-In

By the end of June 2017, will any residents move into the Zibi condo complex?
Yes: 80%

The Zibi development, on the Ottawa River, is currently under construction (see article here).  The projected move-in date is "Spring 2017".  Some aboriginal groups oppose the development, and it is conceivable that it could be delayed or cancelled because of that.  Ordinary construction delays could also push the move-in date past Spring 2017.  I think that the move-in will most likely happen on schedule, but this is not absolutely certain.

Online Sales Exemption

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it plans to increase the duty-free exemption for products purchased online?
Yes: 20%

The federal government is said to be considering an increase in the duty-free exemption for items purchased online (see article here).  The article does not quote any specific sources in the government, although the Liberals supported a higher exemption when the Conservatives were in power.  The exemption in Canada has not been changed since 1985, and is much lower than most other comparable countries.  I think that the exemption will eventually be increased, but not necessarily in 2016.

Canada Interest Rate January v2

What will be the result of the January 20th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 50%
Unchanged Rate: 47%
Rate Increase: 3%

Since my last post, more recent commentary has suggested that the Bank of Canada is more likely to cut rates than I initially thought.  I am updating my odds.

Saudi Arms Deal

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government pause, cancel, or significantly modify the contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia?
Yes: 15%

The government has recently been criticized for not intervening with a contract to sell LAV carriers to Saudi Arabia (see article here).  The Conservative government initially approved the contract, although the Liberals also supported it at the time.  The current Liberal government is still supportive.   I think that support will continue.

Haitian Election

Who will win the Haitian Presidential Election?
Jovenel Moïse: 75%
Jude Célestin: 20%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the current scheduled runoff is rescheduled, then the result of the rescheduled election will count, as long as it is held in 2016.  Initial results count as long as they clearly indicate a winner, even if they are later overturned)

The first round of the Haitian Presidential Election was held on October 25th, and resulted in Jovenel Moïse and Jude Célestin getting enough votes to get to the second round (see article here).  Jovenel Moïse is the favoured candidate of the current president, and Célestin and other opposition figures have accused him of widespread fraud.  Célestin in particular has refused to campaign for the runoff election.  Given that Moïse got the most votes in the first round, and Célestin refuses to campaign, it looks likely Moïse will win.  It is also possible (though unlikely) that someone else could win if the first round election results are somehow invalidated.

Senate Women

Of the next 22 appointments to the Senate, what percentage will be women?
0%-49%: 25%
50%-75%: 35%
75%-100%: 40%
(If the 23rd (and further) appointments are made at the same time as the 22nd, they will also count for this question)

Some have called for all of the current 22 vacancies in the Senate to be filled by women, to achieve gender balance (see article here).  The current government has not made any specific commitments, although they seem vaguely positive towards gender balance.  I think that the majority of the current vacancies will indeed be filled by women, but the percentage of female appointees will probably be significantly less than 100%.

Senate Appointment Timing

Will at least 22 senate appointments be made in 2016?

Yes: 80%

(The appointments actually need to be made, not just announced.)

The new government plans to create an advisory board to recommend candidates for the Senate, with the goal of filling the current 22 vacancies by the end of the year (see article here).  It is not clear to me how firm this deadline is, but my default assumption is that it will probably be met.

Electoral Change Referendum

Before the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce that it will plans to hold a referendum on making changes to the way MPs are elected?
Yes: 35%
(The referendum does not actually need to be held in 2016 (or at all), simply announced.  A meta-referendum on the rules for how to change the way MPs are elected also counts)

The current federal government has promised to change the electoral system, but has said they will not hold a referendum on the proposed changes (see article here).  In the provinces, referenda have usually been held on proposed changes to the electoral system, and the changes have usually failed to pass in them.  Some, including the opposition Conservatives, have said a referendum should be held for national changes as well.  I think the current government is likely to stick to its "no referendum" position for the duration of 2016, although it might change its mind later.

Canada Interest Rate January

What will be the result of the January 20th Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 12%
Unchanged Rate: 85%
Rate Increase: 3%

There is continuing speculation that rates may be cut (see story here).  However, given the unchanged rates in the last two meetings, I am going to increase my odds of an unchanged rate to 85% (from 80% in my last post).

NFL LA Relocation

By the end of 2016, which NFL teams will relocate to Los Angeles?
Zero teams: 30%
The San Diego Chargers only: 30%
The Oakland Raiders only: 10%
The St. Louis Rams only: 15%
Two or more teams: 15%
(The relocation must actually happen by the end of 2016, not just be announced)

Three teams have applied to move to Los Angeles for the next NFL season (see article here).  There seems to be a real possibility that more than one team could move to LA.  In October, a sports bookmaker suggested that there was at most a 60% chance of zero teams, a 40% chance of one team, and a 17% chance of two teams (see article here).  In August, another bookmaker suggested that the Chargers had at most a 59% chance of moving to LA, the Rams a 47% chance, and the Raiders a 8% chance (see article here).  I have the impression that the Rams are less likely to move than that, the Raiders are more likely, at least one team is rather likely to move in 2016.

Canadian Home Prices 2016

What will be the increase in Canadian Home Prices between December 2015 and December 2016 be, according to the MLS Home Price Index (HPI)?
Less than 0%: 15%
0-5%: 40%
5-10%: 30%
More than 10%: 15%
(See the tool here.  The Aggregate (over all cities), Composite (over all property types) number will be used)

According to the MLS HPI, Canadian home prices have increased every year since 2006 except 2008, with an average increase of 5% or so.  The rate of increase has been slightly lower in recent years than before 2008.  For the 9 years 2006-2014, 1 has seen a decrease in house prices, 3 have seen a 0-5% increase, 3 have seen a 5-10% increase, and 2 have seen a 10+% increase.  I think the rate of increase in 2016 is most likely to be in the 0-5% range, but a 5-10% increase is also quite possible.

Top Canada News 2016

What category will the Google top Canadian News Story of 2016 belong to?
Politics/Elections: 25%
Terrorism/Crime: 20%
Sports/Entertainment: 20%
Business/Economics: 10%
Some Other Category: 25%
(see the "News Stories" list here for the 2015 stories.  If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)

Of the top news stories of 2015, 3 were Sports/Entertainment stories, 2 were Politics/Elections, 2 were Terrorism/Crime, and 3 were Business/Economics.  I think 2015 was an unusually good year for Sports/Entertainment stories.  The US Presidential Election and the Olympics are obvious contenders for biggest story of 2016.  An major terrorist attack could also become the biggest story.  Business/Economics rarely seem to win in this sort of competition.

My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Blue Jays Playoff Run: Sports/Entertainment
Federal Election: Politics/Elections
Pan Am Games: Sports/Entertainment
Paris Attacks: Terrorism/Crime
Charlie Hebdo Attack: Terrorism/Crime
Mayweather Pacquiao Fight: Sports/Entertainment
Donald Trump Candidacy: Politics/Elections
Greece Debt Crisis: Business/Economics
Oil Prices: Business/Economics
Ashley Madison Leak: Business/Economics

Top Global News 2016

What category will the Google top Global News Search of 2016 belong to?
Terrorism/Crime: 30%
Politics/Elections: 25%
Disasters/Diseases: 20%
Riots/Unrest: 10%
Some Other Category: 15%
(see the "Global News" list here for the list for 2015.  If Google changes their categories, a similar category will be used, if available; if not, this question will be voided.)

In 2015, the top global news search was for "Charlie Hebdo" which counts as Terrorism/Crime according to my categories.  In 2014, the top search was "Ebola", which counts as Disasters/Diseases.  Of the 18 topics listed in the last two years, 7 have been in Terrorism/Crime, 2 in Politics/Elections, 5 in Disasters/Diseases, 3 in Riots/Unrest, and 1 in Some Other Category.  I'm going to give the highest weight to Terrorism/Crime, based on the historical data.  Because of the US Election, I'll give Politics/Elections a higher weight than the past history numbers would suggest.  I'll also overweight Some Other Category, because to some extent I chose my categories to fit all of the stories, so the historical data probably underestimates Some Other Category.

My classifications for 2015 were as follows:
Charlie Hebdo: Terrorism/Crime
Paris: Terrorism/Crime
Hurricane Patricia: Disasters/Diseases
Isis: Terrorism/Crime
Nepal: Disasters/Diseases
El Chapo: Terrorism/Crime
Greece: Politics/Elections
Baltimore Riots: Riots/Unrest
San Bernardino: Terrorism/Crime
Hurricane Joaquin: Disasters/Diseases

For 2014,
Ebola: Disasters/Diseases
ISIS: Terrorism/Crime
Malaysia Airlines: Disasters/Diseases
Crimea / Ukraine: Riots/Unrest
Ferguson: Riots/Unrest
Gaza and Israel: Some Other Category
Scotish Referendum: Politics/Elections
Oscar Pistorius trial: Terrorism/Crime