Economic Question Post-Mortem

There are a bunch of economic questions that have resolved in the past few months.

• Canadian GDP Growth in 2015 was 1.2% (see data here).  That fell within my 1% to 2% range, which I gave a 25% chance of.  Overall, I gave a 40% chance of GDP growth being lower than 2%.
• US Economic Growth in 2015 was 2.4% (see data here).  I gave a 22% chance of 2% to 3% growth, and a 55% chance of growth lower than 3%.
• Canadian Inflation in 2015 was 1.6% (see data here).  I said there was a 35% chance of an inflation rate between 1% and 2%, and a 65% chance of an inflation rate below 2%, so this is in line with what I expected.
• In January, the Bank of Canada didn't change the main interest rate (see my posts Canada Interest Rate January and Canada Interest Rate January v2).  I originally said that there was an 85% chance of an unchanged rate, which I later decreased to 47%.  This is one of those unusual cases where my initial prediction was better than my later predictions, and I may have over-reacted to later news.
• The Bank didn't change the interest rate in March either (see my post Canada Interest Rate March).  I said there was a 65% chance of an unchanged rate.

Overall, my economic projections might have overestimated the variance of economic variables; all of the predictions here fell in one of the middle ranges (counting "unchanged rate" as a middle range), which would be expected to happen by chance only 3.6% of the time, if my probabilities were correct.