Rob Nicholson Retirement

Q139: Will Rob Nicholson contest the next federal election?
Yes: 15%
(Rob Nicholson must run as a Conservative MP, but not necessarily in his current riding of Niagara Falls)

A number of prominent federal Conservative cabinet ministers, including John Baird and Peter MacKay, have decided to retire from federal politics before the next federal election.  Rob Nicholson, currently the Minister of Foreign Affairs, might also decide to retire from federal politics.  First elected as an MP in 1984 (although with a break in the 90s), he is currently 63.

I am not aware of any specific rumour suggesting Nicholson's retirement, but it seems like something that could happen.  However, if Nicholson were to not contest the next election, he probably would have announced it by now.  I am thus giving a relatively low forecast.

Stephen Harper Retirement

Q138: Before the next federal election, will Stephen Harper announce that he will retire as Prime Minister before the following (scheduled date 2019) federal election?
Yes: 35%
(If Stephen Harper leaves (or announces he will leave) before the federal election this year, that also counts.  However, a conditional promise (such as "I will leave if I don't win a majority") would not count.  What Stephen Harper actually does after the next federal election does not matter for this question)

There has been some speculation that Stephen Harper might announce that his next term in office will be his final term (see article here).  David Cameron, the UK PM, apparently did so with some success.  I think that this sort of announcement is quite possible, but probably less likely than not.  It seems quite unlikely that Stephen Harper will even contest the election after next in any case, so this announcement would not really convey that much.

Mandatory Long-Form Census

Q137: By the end of 2016, will a law be passed to bring back the mandatory long-form census?
Yes: 20%

The Conservative government made the long-form census voluntary for the last census.  Some other governments and businesses have called for the mandatory long-form census to be reinstated (see article here) and a Liberal MP introduced a defeated private member's bill to do so (see article here).

A mandatory long-form census is only likely if the Liberals or NDP win the next election, which, according to my latest projection, has a 50% chance of happening.    Even then, I am not sure that it will be brought back; it is not clear that bringing back the mandatory long-form census is part of the Liberal or NDP platform.

Voluntary CPP Contributions

Q136: By the end of 2016, will the Canadian federal government pass a law allowing voluntary CPP contributions?
Yes: 25%
(A law that turned some current mandatory contributions into voluntary ones would count, as would one that allowed "CPP-like" voluntary contributions.  The law must be a substantial change in the CPP program, not just a minor tweak.)

Finance Minister Joe Oliver has recently suggested the idea of allowing voluntary contributions to the CPP (see article here).  There does not seem to be a detailed proposal, and it seems that details may be worked out in the process of consultations over the summer.  Given the time frame, it is likely that any changes would take place after the federal election.

Presumably, voluntary CPP contributions are most likely if the Conservatives win the next election, which I said has a 50% chance of happening in my last projection.  Even then, it is quite possible that the Conservatives will drop the plan, or be unable to proceed with it (in a minority government situation).  Thus, a 25% estimate is reasonable.

Swiss Election

Q135: What party will win the most seats in the next Swiss federal election?
Swiss People's: 60%
Social Democrats: 20%
FDP.The Liberals: 10%
Christian Democrats: 5%
Some other party: 5%

The next Swiss federal election is scheduled for October 18 (the day before the Canadian election).  Current polls place the Swiss People's party with about 25% of the vote, the Social Democrats at 20%, FDP.The Liberals at 16%, and the Christian Democrats at 12%.  Given those numbers, I think that the Swiss People's party is most likely to win.  I am not too certain of the outcome, given my lack of familiarity with Swiss politics.

Charter Time Warner Merger

Q134: By the end of 2016, will Charter Communications acquire Time Warner Cable?
Yes: 30%
(A "yes" requires that the acquisition receive regulatory approval and close by the end of 2016.  If Charter abandons its current bid, the question will resolve immediately as "no".)

Charter Communications, a US cable company, is planning on making a bid to acquire Time Warner Cable, a larger US cable company (see stories here and here).  There seems to be some concern that the FCC might block the bid for antitrust reasons.  It is also possible that Charter will abandon the bid on its own volition, or that Charter might be outbid.

From the market prices of Time Warner stock quoted in the Reuters article, the market thinks that the deal has at most a 50% chance of going through.  I am giving a slightly lower estimate than that, given the short time period of this question.  Some of the market price increase might be due to the potential for other, even higher bids.

Ride-Sharing Legalization

Q133: By the end of 2016, will either the City of Ottawa or the province of Ontario pass a law legalizing ride-sharing services?
Yes: 25%
(Requirements that ride-sharing services must meet are acceptable, as long as they are not too onerous)

The entry of UberX into the Ottawa market has led to some discussion about Ottawa's current taxi laws, and various related provincial legislation (see article here and my related post here).  The City of Ottawa is currently in the early stages of a review of Ottawa's taxi laws.  I think that the status quo will continue, at least until the end of 2016.  Regulatory changes of this type often take a long time.

Federal Election Result v3

Q132: What will be the result of the 2015 Federal Election?
Conservative Majority: 15%
Conservative Minority: 35%
Liberal Minority: 20%
Liberal Majority: 10%
NDP Minority/Majority: 20%

Since my last projection, the NDP have gained substantially, while the Liberals have faded slightly.  Some polls suggest a three-way race between the Conservatives, NDP, and Liberals.  threehundredeight.com seems to still be projecting that the NDP will be trailing by a fair margin.  I am increasing my odds for the NDP and decreasing them for the Liberals and Conservatives.

Ottawa Champions Attendence

Q131: What will be the attendance for the Ottawa Champions opening game?
Fewer than 3000: 15%
3000-3500: 15%
3500-4000: 40%
4000-4500: 15%
More than 4500: 15%

The Ottawa Champions baseball club will be playing their first game of the season tonight.  The team expects 3500-4000 in attendance for the opening game (see here).  The Ottawa Rapidz (who were also in the Can-Am league), has attendance of 4200 for their opening game (see article here).  The league average attendance was 2328 last year (see stats here).  Weather-wise, the forecast is for low temperatures (around 5-10 °C) but no rain.

I think that the 3500-4000 estimate is probably about right, on average, but I wouldn't be greatly surprised by an attendance that is smaller or larger than anticipated.  I'm not sure that Champions management has enough information to make a very precise estimate.

Ride-Sharing Penalties

Q130: Before June 30th, 2016, will the government of Ontario pass the Protecting Passenger Safety Act?
Yes: 20%

Bill 53 (also known as the Protecting Passenger Safety Act) is a private member's bill that would increase penalties for unlicensed commercial drivers.  The law would discourage drivers of ride-sharing services, like UberX (see article here).  The bill was proposed by Ottawa South Liberal MPP John Fraser, although Nepean Carleton Conservative MPP Lisa MacLeod had earlier proposed a similar bill.

The bill seems to have some bipartisan support, although some MPPs seemed to speak against the bill in the debate.  Given the general unsuccessful fate of most private member's bills, I think that this one will probably not be successful either.

US Meat Labelling Laws

Q129: When will the US Federal government repeal its country of origin meat labelling laws?
Before September 1st, 2015: 40%
Between September 1st, 2015 and December 31st, 2015: 25%
Not in 2015: 35%
(A partial repeal counts, as long as the requirement for retailers to indicate country of origin is eliminated)

The US currently requires retailers to indicate the country of origin for meat products.  Canada and Mexico have won a WTO ruling against this practice, and have threatened to impose retaliatory tariffs if the US federal government does not repeal it (see story here).  The US House of Representatives Agricultural Committee Chairman has said that he will introduce a law to repeal the requirements, and that he expects a vote in early June (see article here).

A wide variety of outcomes are possible for this question,  However, it seems to me like the US will likely either repeal the requirements relatively quickly (before September) or not do so at all this year.

Reform Act C-586

Q128: Will Michael Chong's Reform Act receive royal assent before the next federal election?
Yes: 25%

The Reform Act of 2014 (also known as Bill C-586) is a proposed law intended to give more power to individual MPs.  It has been passed by the House of Commons in late February, and is currently before the Senate.  There seems to be some uncertainty over whether the Senate will pass the bill before the end of June (see article here).  If they do not, then the bill will not become law, because of the intervening federal election.

My sense is that the Senate is quite unlikely to pass the bill.  Private member's bills, like this one, do not receive the standing that government bills get.  As well, there seems to be opposition to the law from several senators, which could delay the bill's passage past the end of June.

Baiji Oil Complex Capture

Q127: By the end of 2015, will the IS capture the Baiji oil complex?
Yes: 50%

The Islamic State is currently threatening to capture the Baiji oil complex in northern Iraq (see article here).  The complex, which contains the largest refinery in Iraq, was re-captured by the Iraqi government six months ago.  My sense is that the fate of the complex is very much an open question; it is about equally likely that it will or will not be captured by the IS.

Guatemalan President

Q126: Before September 1st 2015, will Guatemalan President Otto Perez Molina leave office?
Yes: 15%

A recent corruption scandal in Guatemala has led to the resignation of the vice president.  There have been large-scale protests and calls for the president to resign as well (see article here).  Elections, for which the current president is ineligible, are to be held in early September.

My sense is that Molina will probably not resign as a result of the current protests.  His connection to the corruption scandal seems to be fairly indirect, and the calls for him to resign fairly weak.  He will be leaving office after the September election anyway.

IS Palmyra

Q125: Before the end of 2015, will the IS destroy the city of Palmyra?
Yes: 40%

The Islamic State is currently attacking Syrian government forces near the ruins of the ancient city of Palmyra (see article here).  If the IS captures the site, it is feared that they might destroy it, like they have destroyed other archaeological sites.

My sense is that the IS may or may not capture Palmyra, but they will very likely destroy it if they do.  I am increasing my estimate because of the recent capture of Ramadi by the IS.

Nkurunziza in Burundi

Q124: Before the end of 2015, will President Pierre Nkurunziza leave the office of presidency of Burundi?
Yes: 35%

There has been recent unrest in the Central African nation of Burundi recently, due to President Nkurunziza's decision to seek a third term (see Wikipedia article here).   There have been widespread protests against the President, and a failed coup attempt.  An election is scheduled for June.

My sense is that Nkurunziza will probably manage to remain in office.  He has already beaten off a coup attempt, which will probably discourage future coups.  He will likely win the election, fairly or unfairly.  Still, the unrest does signal a higher risk to him than normal.

Empty Target Stores

Q123: By the end of 2015, will any of the former Target locations in Ottawa still be empty?
Yes: 65%
(Usage by a temporary store does not count, but partial usage of the space does count.  A store counts as used if it is being renovated prior to opening, or if a tenant has been announced but has not yet moved in)

Several former Targets in Ottawa have been taken up by Wal-Mart and Loews.  Still, most of them are still empty, and some experts seem to expect them to stay empty for a fair while (see article here).  I think that at least one store will still be empty by the end of the year.  Some locations (such as the St. Laurent and Hazeldean locations) are particularly vulnerable.

Federal Election TV Debates

Q122: How many televised federal election debates involving the 3 major party leaders will take place before the next federal election?
2 or fewer: 15%
3: 15%
4: 10%
5 or more: 60%
(In order to count, the debate must include the leaders of the Conservative, NDP, and Liberal parties.  A single-issue debate counts)

There seems to be a fair amount of uncertainty about the number of televised leaders debates that will take place before the next election (see articles here and here).  In addition to the broadcast consortium that usually hosts the debates, several other groups have also offered to host debates.  The Conservatives have accepted invitations to two debates, while rejecting an invitation to debates to be hosted from the broadcast consortium, and saying they would be willing to participate in up to 5 debates. The NDP have also accepted two invitations, while indicating that they would be willing to participate in as many debates as possible.

My sense is that there will probably be a 5 debates, as suggested by the Conservatives.  The usual situation in this sort of case is that the opposition parties want to participate in as many debates as possible, and so will join whatever debates Stephen Harper accepts.  However, it is also possible that the 2 debates accepted by the Conservatives and NDP will be all of the debates that will be held, or that there will be some intermediate number of debates.

High School Strike Peel

Q122: When will Peel high school students return to class?
Before May 31st: 35%
Between June 1st and June 30th: 25%
After June 30th: 40%
(A resolution of this question requires a majority of Peel region students to return to class on a permanent basis.)

Since my previous post about the high school strike in Durham, there has been little progress in negotiations there (see recent article here).  In addition, high school teachers in Peel (the west GTA region including Mississauga and Brampton) have also gone on strike (see article here).

After 3 weeks of negotiations, there does not seem to have been much progress in Durham.  Thus, I do not expect that the strike will end quickly in Peel.  It is quite possible that the strike will not end until after the summer holidays begin.

Ottawa Teachers' Strike

Q120: When will classes in Ottawa elementary schools be cancelled due to labour action?
Before May 31th: 25%
Between June 1st and December 31, 2015: 25%
Not before December 31, 2015: 50%
(This question requires a significant number of schools to stop offering classes; one or two schools would not be sufficient.  The length of the cancellation must be at least one day)

Ottawa elementary school teachers will be beginning the first phase of labour action this week, as part of negotiations with the school board and the province (see article here and here).  If negotiations go poorly, they could decide to strike, leading to class cancellations.

News articles don't give much of a sense about the likelihood and timing of a strike.  My sense is that a strike has about a 50% chance of happening (given the strike by the Durham teachers' union), and it is quite possible that a strike could begin by the end of the month.

Puerto Rico Default

Q119: By the end of 2015, will Puerto Rico default on any of its debt?
Yes: 20%

The government of Puerto Rico has serious financial problems, due to a persistently weak economy (see Wikipedia article here).  If it is unable to issue more debt, it may have to default on its current obligations in September, according to this article.

My sense is that, while default is certainly possible, it is not terribly likely.  Financing of some form will probably be acquired before the government runs out of money.  If all else fails, the US federal government might step in and provide money.

Ramadi Capture

Q118: By the end of 2015, will the Islamic State capture Ramadi?
Yes: 40%
(Ramadi means Ramadi city centre.  If the Islamic State captures, but later loses control of, Ramadi, it still counts)

There has been ongoing fighting in the Iraqi city of Ramadi between the IS and the Iraqi government (see Wikipedia article here).  The IS controls much of the city, but the city centre is still controlled by the Iraqi government.  The IS has launched several attacks to try to get control of the city centre (see articles here and here).

My sense is that the fighting in Ramadi could go either way.  However, given that the IS has been trying to capture Ramadi for the past 5 months without success, I do not think it is more likely not to succeed before the end of the year.

SC Drug Sentences

Q117: Will the Supreme Court of Canada find that mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes are unconstitutional?
Yes: 70%

The Supreme Court has agreed to hear a BC appeal relating to mandatory minimum sentencing for drug offences.  The original judge found that such sentences could constitute "cruel and unusual punishment", but this was overturned by the BC Court of Appeal.

Based on previous Supreme Court decisions (such as that relating to mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes), I think that the Supreme Court will probably decide that mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes are also unconstitutional.

AWS-3 Devices

Q116: When will a cellphone capable of utilizing the AWS-3 spectrum band be publicly available in Canada?
Before the end of 2015: 35%
Sometime in 2016: 40%
Not before the end of 2016: 25%

AWS-3 is a spectrum band that has been recently set aside for use by mobile carriers.  Rights to use it have been recently auctioned off in Canada (see article here) and the US.  There are currently no cellphones capable of using AWS-3 in Canada.  However, according to a recent Globe and Mail article about the issue, devices will not be available "until at least 2016, and perhaps not until the following year" (although some expect devices to be available by the end of the year).  I am basing my odds primarily on that statement.

Mike Duffy Jail Time

Q115: Will Mike Duffy face jail time as a result of his currently ongoing trial?
Yes: 35%

(Probation, a suspended sentence, or an intermittent term sentence do not count)

The trial of Mike Duffy over various fraud charges continues.  If convicted, it is possible that Duffy could face jail time.  This article (written at the beginning of the trial) discusses the possibility of Duffy entering into a plea bargain to avoid jail time.  My sense is that Duffy is somewhat unlikely to face jail time.  He might only be convicted on minor charges (or no charges at all) or he might enter into a plea bargain to avoid jail time.

GM Oshawa

Q114: By the end of 2016, will GM officially announce that it will close its Oshawa plant?
Yes: 40%
(A transfer to another company counts as a closure, as does an indefinite shut-down in production)

There is some speculation about the future of GM's Oshawa Car Assembly, given recent lay-offs and lack of investment in the plant.  GM has indicated that it will delay until 2016 before making a decision about new investments in the plant.

I think that the plant does not necessarily have a bright future, but it will probably survive 2016.  The risk of the plant seems to be more of a medium-term risk than a short-term risk.  GM will probably continue production, without necessarily making substantial new investments.

  

Baltimore Officer Guilt/Jail Time

Q113: Will any of the six officers charged in the death of Freddie Gray be found guilty, and if so, will any face jail time?
Yes, and will face jail time: 40%
Yes, but will not face jail time: 20%
No: 40%
(A plea bargain counts as guilty.  The initial verdict is all that matters, even if it is overturned on appeal.  Further charges against these officers or other officers do not count for this question)

Six Baltimore police officers have been charged in the death of Freddie Gray, who was taken into police custody (see story here).   The charges seem to have been unexpectedly fast and serious (I was going to predict the likelihood of charges, but the officers were charged before I had the chance to).

From the news coverage of the story, I have the impression that it will be difficult to get a conviction, especially a serious conviction that would result in jail time. Police officers in these sorts of cases seem to rarely be convicted.  Still, this case might be an exception, and the number of charges and officers charged will make convictions easier.

Alberta Election v2

Q112: What will be the result of the upcoming Alberta provincial election?
PC Minority/Majority: 15%
Wildrose Minority: 10%
Wildrose Majority: 5%
NDP Minority: 35%
NDP Majority: 35%

Since my last prediction, the situation in Alberta has changed substantially.  The NDP have gained substantially in the polls, at the expense of the three other major parties.  Polling now suggests that the NDP have about 40% of the vote, the Wildrose 25% and the PCs 20%.  Those numbers would suggest a NDP majority, although a NDP minority is also possible.  There seems to be some scepticism about the latest polls, which also seem to indicate that most Albertans expect the PCs to win.  NDP support seems to be somewhat concentrated in Edmonton.  Previous elections in 2012 and 1989 also had polls suggesting lacklustre PC support, but the PCs won handily in both elections.

I still think that a NDP minority or majority is the most likely outcome; their lead in the polls is considerable.  However, given the tenuousness and concentration of their support, I think it is quite likely that they will only get a minority.  If the NDP don't win, the PCs and Wildrose are about equally likely to win.  The PCs have a stronger organization, while the Wildrose are leading slightly in the polls over the PCs.

Questions Resolved in April

Looking back on April, the following questions have resolved:

• Q6 (Palestine ICC) has resolved as yes because Palestine officially joined the ICC as of April 1st. I said this had a 85% chance of happening.  In hindsight, this might have actually been too low.
• Q14 (Balanced Budget 2015) has resolved as yes, because the Conservatives have proposed a balanced budget for 2015-2016.  I said this had a 75% chance of happening, which again might have been too low.
• Q16 (TFSA Expansion) has resolved for yes, as the latest budget expands the annual TFSA contribution limit.  I said this had a 75% chance of happening.
• Q20 (SC Extradition Appeal) has resolved for no, as the Supreme Court has allowed the extradition of Anthony Barnaby and David Caplin.  I said this had a 65% chance of happening.
• Q28 (SC mandatory minimum sentences) has resolved for yes, as the Supreme Court has struck down mandatory minimum sentences for drug crimes.  I said this had a 70% chance of happening.
• Q71 (Boko Haram Gwoza) has resolved for yes, as the Boko Haram has been driven out of Gwoza.  I said this had a 35% chance of happening.
• Q77 (Beer and Wine Sales) has resolved for yes, as the Ontario government has announced that beer and wine sales will be allowed at some grocery stores.  I said this had a 85% chance of happening, which might have been too low; the initial reports were completely correct.
• Q78 (Hydro One Sale) has resolved for yes, as the Ontario government has announced that the partial sale of Hydro One.  I said this had a 75% chance of happening, which again might have been low.

This was a pretty good month for my forecasts, partly because many of them were of the "will this leaked/previously announced policy be officially announced?"  Q14, Q16, Q77, and Q78 were definitely in that category, and Q6 was edging into that category as well.

Omar Khadr Release

Q111: When will Omar Khadr be released?
Before May 31: 50%
Between June 1st and December 31st: 25%
Never or After January 1st: 25%
(Release on bail, or other forms of conditional release, count.)

Omar Khadr is currently serving an 8-year sentence in Alberta for his part in fighting the Americans in Afghanistan.  However, he recently won bail in the course of an appeal of the conviction.  The Canadian government is appealing the granting of bail.  If he is released on bail, it will probably be sometime after May 5th.  If he doesn't get bail, he may also be released as the result of a parole hearing in June.

I think Khadr will probably be released on bail in May, as this is really the default position now that he has won bail.  If he isn't released on bail, he is still quite likely to be released on parole (or for some other reason).