Hydro Ottawa Expansion

Q168: When will Hydro Ottawa officially announce that it is taking over the accounts of the remaining Hydro One customers in the City of Ottawa?
Before the end of 2015: 40%
In 2016: 20%
Not before the end of 2016: 40%
(Most, but not necessarily all, of the 45,000 Hydro One customers in the City of Ottawa must join Hydro Ottawa for this question to trigger)

Negotiations are currently taking place regarding the remaining customers of Hydro One (the provincial electricity distributor) who live in the City of Ottawa (see articles here and here).  The city would like those customers to join Hydro Ottawa, while Hydro One wants a substantial payment for transferring the customers.  These customers pay substantially more than similar Hydro Ottawa customers; they are relatively low-cost Hydro One customers, but would be relatively high-cost Hydro Ottawa customers.  Ottawa mayor Jim Watson has expressed optimism about the negotiations.  The partial Hydro One sale in the fall seems to be a soft deadline for the negotiations.

The most likely outcome is probably an agreement before the end of 2015.  The encouraging statements by the mayor, and the pressure created by the impending Hydro One sale, make this more likely.  If no agreement is reached by the end of 2015, there will probably be no agreement in 2016 at all, because of the partial Hydro One sale.

Greek Banks

Q167: When will Greek banks re-open?
Before July 6th: 20%
On July 6th: 50%
After July 6th: 30%
(A substantial number of banks must re-open to trigger this question)

In the context of the uncertainty associated with the Greek bailout negotiations, the Greek government has decided to close banks this week (see article here), although this could be extended  Banks are scheduled to be re-opened on July 6th.  Greece may be forced to default on an IMF payment on June 30th, and is scheduled to hold a referendum on the last creditors' proposal on July 5th.

I think that banks will probably re-open on the scheduled date.  If they do not, they are more likely to be closed for a longer period of time than a shorter period.  It is possible that they will re-open early if the crisis is solved.

Greek Referendum

Q165: What will be the result of the proposed Greek referendum on the bailout proposal?
The Creditors' Proposal will be Approved: 20%
The Creditors' Proposal will not be Approved: 30%
No referendum will be held before the end of July: 50%
(A referendum on a slightly different proposal would count.  A general election would not count)

The Greek government has called a referendum on the latest bailout proposal on July 5th (see article here).  The government is recommending that the bailout proposal be rejected, although voters might not follow this suggestion.   There seems to be considerable doubt about whether a referendum can be held on such short notice, as well as whether the proposal will still be available when the referendum is held.   There was an unrealized threat of a referendum on a previous referendum proposal in 2011.  The Greek parliament has approved the referendum (see article here).

The situation seems very uncertain and fluid.  I think that the most likely outcome is that no referendum will be held, either because negotiations will continue and succeed, or because the proposal to be voted on is no longer available or relevant.  It seems that Greece will have to default on its IMF payment on June 30th, which might well make the referendum irrelevant.  If a referendum is held, it could go either way, but voters are probably slightly more likely to reject the proposal.

Senate Referendum

Q165: Will a national referendum on the future of the Senate be announced before the end of 2016?
Yes: 15%
(The referendum does not need to be held, merely announced, by the end of 2016.  A referendum without a definite date is fine, as long as there is a firm commitment to hold the referendum.  For the purposes of this question, a plebiscite also counts)

There has been a lot of speculation about future changes to the Senate, as the result of recent scandals.  Thomas Mulcair, the NDP leader, has promised to abolish the Senate (see article here).  Some have suggested that a referendum be held on the future of the Senate (see article here).

I do not think there will a referendum on the future of the Senate in the near future.  Canadian federal referenda are relatively rare (the last one was in 1992) and tend to be about larger issues than Senate reform.  A more likely outcome is that the Senate will be reformed legislatively and/or through administrative changes

Loblaws Strike

Q164: When will Loblaws workers go on strike?
Before July 15th: 25%
After July 15th but before August 31st: 15%
Not before August 31st: 60%
(For purposes of this question, workers must be on strike in at least one Ottawa Loblaw-owned store.  A strike that is called off at the last moment does not count.  A lockout would count.)

Workers at Loblaws, a Canadian supermarket chain, voted to go on strike last week (see article here).  Preparations are being made for a strike, although negotiations are still continuing.  The earliest strike date is July 2nd.  I think that there probably will not be a strike.  There is still a lot of time for negotiation.  If there is a strike, it could well be after July 15th, given various delays.

Greek Bailout

Q163: When will a deal be reached regarding the release of further bailout funds to Greece?
On or before June 30th: 40%
In the month of July: 20%
Not before August: 40%
(The deal does not have to have been ratified by the parliaments of the countries involved)

There have been continuing talks regarding the release of further bailout funds to Greece (see sample article here).  Greece's creditors are demanding further austerity measures in return for more funds.  Negotiations do not seem to be doing well.  There seems to be a deadline of June 30th for the talks, as a Greek payment to the IMF is due on that day.  The IMF has indicated that it is not willing to extend the deadline.

I am very uncertain about what will happen here.  The most likely outcomes are probably that a deal will be reached before the deadline, or the deadline will be extended beyond the end of June (and probably July too).  It is also possible that Greece will simply default on the IMF payment, or something more complex than any of the above scenarios will happen.  I am giving the most non-committal odds I can.

Writ Date Federal Election

Q162: When will the next federal election officially be called?
Before August 15th: 15%
Between August 15th and August 31st: 15%
After September 1st: 70%
(This question refers to the date on which the writ is dropped for the election, not the actual date of the election)

According to the fixed election date law, the next election will be held on October 19th, and so must be called on or before September 12th, to satisfy minimum campaign length requirements.  There has been speculation that it might be called earlier than that, to allow the Conservatives to spend more money (see article here).  Most recent previous campaigns have been the minimum length of 36 days, but the 2006 campaign was longer because it spanned the Christmas holidays, and the 1993 election was also slightly longer than the minimum length.

I think that the federal campaign will probably be of the standard, 36-day length, like previous elections.  The advantage gained by the Conservatives by a longer campaign seems fairly marginal.  The default option is clearly a 36-day long campaign.  If the campaign is longer than normal, it is quite possible that it could start before the middle of August.

Venezuelan Election Date

Q161: Will Venezuela hold parliamentary elections in 2015?
Yes: 75%
(The elections actually need to be held for a substantial number of parliamentary seats to count)

Venezuela is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in 2015 (see Wikipedia article here).  There has been some speculation that the election may be delayed beyond the end of 2015.  The government has insisted that the election will be held on schedule (see article here).  The opposition has called for the election date to be formally set (see article here).  The government is planning on holding primaries for its seats in late June.  Polls suggest the government is losing.

I think that elections probably will be held.  The opposition's concern seems to be more that elections will be poorly timed than that they won't happen at all.  Still, the lack of a definite date and the widespread protests make a delay more likely.  It is also possible (although unlikely) that there could be a coup before elections can be held.

Ottawa Ranked Ballots

Q160: Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa decide to use ranked ballots in future municipal elections?
Yes: 10%
(A vote by city council counts as a decision, even if it is later reversed.  The partial use of ranked ballots counts)

The Ontario government is currently preparing legislation that would allow cities to use ranked ballots for municipal elections (see articles here and here).  Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson does not seem to be too enthusiastic at the prospect.  Given Watson's lack of enthusiasm, and the relatively short time period of this question, I am going with a low estimate.

Mobilicity Acquistion

Q159: Before the end of 2016, who will acquire Mobilicity?
Telus: 35%
Rogers: 15%
Some Other Company: 15%
Mobilicity will not be acquired: 35%
(The deal must close for this question to resolve.  If Mobilicity is split in such a way that no single company could be said to have acquired it, then the question will resolve for "Mobilicity will not be acquired")

Mobilicity, a Canadian wireless provider, entered creditor protection in September 2013 because of poor financial results.  Telus, another Canadian wireless provider, had attempted to acquire their wireless spectrum, but was blocked by the federal government.  There now seems to be speculation that Telus or Rogers will acquire Mobilicity outright (see article here).  The federal government is said to be agreeable, conditional on transfer of Mobilicity's wireless spectrum to Wind.

Given the interest they Telus has previously shown, I think that they are the most likely purchaser.  There is also a fair chance that no deal will happen before the end of next year, or that a deal will be announced and fall through.  Federal government approval does not seem to be guaranteed.  Finally, it is possible that some other wireless provider, such as Bell or Wind, could buy Mobilicity.

Argentine Election v2

Q158: Who will win the next Argentinian Presidential Election?
Daniel Scioli: 40%
Sergio Massa: 15%
Mauricio Macri: 35%
Someone Else: 10%

Since my last post about the Argentinian election, there have been some developments in the polls.  Scioli has gained slightly, Macri has gained significantly, and Massa has fallen significantly.  The latest polls suggest a 2-way race between Scioli and Massa at 33%, with Massa at 14% (see Wikipedia article).  Given that, I am increasing my odds for Macri, and decreasing them for Massa.  My odds for Scioli are going down slightly as well.  I have seen no suggestions of other candidates, so I am decreasing my odds for "Someone Else".

Quebec City NHL

Q157: Before the end of 2016, will the NHL officially announce that it is granting a franchise to Quebec City?
Yes: 10%
(Both an expansion franchise and a relocated franchise count)

There has been persistent speculation about Quebec City receiving a NHL franchise again (The Nordiques were in the NHL from 1979-1995).  They have built a new stadium, the Videotron Centre, in hopes of luring a new team.  There are a number of other competitors for new NHL teams, including Las Vegas, Seattle, and Toronto.

I think that it is quite unlikely that Quebec City will get a new team.  Quebec City is a very small market for a major-league team, and they had financial problems the last time.  In particular, the low value of the Canadian dollar would be a problem for them.  Even if Quebec City were to get a new team, they might not get it in the relatively short time period of this question.

Calypso Fine

Q156: How much will Calypso water park pay in fines for its 2011-2012 safety violations?
Less than $100,000: 10%
$100,000 to $400,000: 30%
$400,000 to $1,000,000: 50%
More than $1,000,000: 10%

Calypso water park is currently on trial for a series of safety violations in 2011 and 2012 (see article here).  It has already been found guilty, and the trial is currently in the sentencing phase.  The prosecution is asking for $850,000, the defence for $125,000.  I think that the judge will likely choose something between those two values, but is slightly more likely to go for a larger fine than a smaller one.

LRT Cost Overrun

Q155: Before the end of 2016, will the City of Ottawa be required to increase its contingency fund for LRT construction?
Yes: 65%
(A major (more than $50M) new, unexpected expense connected with the LRT would be sufficient to resolve this question, even if it is not funded through an increase in the contingency fund)

The City of Ottawa is currently constructing the LRT Confederation Line.  It has a $100 million contingency fund to cover unexpected expenses, but most of the fund has already been allocated (see story here).  According to a city official, the contingency fund is at "the low end of what you would expect for a project of this magnitude".

I think that the City will indeed be forced to increase its contingency fund at some point.  The nature of this sort of project is that there are always unexpected expenses, and the most intense phase of LRT construction is just beginning.

Snapchat IPO

Q154: Before the end of 2016, will Snapchat hold an IPO?
Yes: 20%
(In order to resolve this question, the IPO actually needs to be held.  An announcement that Snapchat plans to hold an IPO before the end of 2016 is not sufficient)

Snapchat, a video messaging service, has announced it plans to hold an IPO (see story here).  However, it has not given a clear date.  My sense is that the IPO will be held in 2-5 years, which would put it beyond the time limit of the question (and there may not be an IPO if Snapchat does poorly or for various other reasons).

Spanish Election

Q153: Which party will win the most seats in the Congress of Deputies in the next Spanish General Election?
People's Party (PP): 30%
Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE): 30%
Podemos: 20%
Citizens: 10%
Some Other Party: 10%

The next Spanish election must be held before December 20th, and will likely be held in late October or November (see Wikipedia article here).  Current opinion polls give PP around 25% of the vote, PSOE around 23%, Podemos around 21%, and Citizens around 14%.  There have been a lot of changes in the polls in the past year, however, with significant gains for Podemos and Citizens, at the expense of the two other parties.  I think that the top three parties are about equally likely to win the most seats, while it is rather unlikely that Citizens will win the most seats (especially since they seem to be a somewhat regional Catalan party).

Tal Abyad Capture

Q152: When will the IS lose control of Tal Abyad, Syria?
Before June 20th: 35%
Before July 31st: 35%
Not before July 31st: 30%

IS is currently losing territory near the city of Tal Abyad, Syria (see story here).  It seems that the IS is expected to lose control of the city in the near future.  I think it is more likely than not that the town will be captured before the end of July, and that it might well be captured in the next week.

Ottawa OMB Appeal

Q151: Will the city of Ottawa succeed in its appeal of the OMB ruling on the Centretown Community Design Plan?
Yes: 30%
(For a "yes" answer, the city must win at the lowest court level (the Divisional Court).  Further appeals do not matter.)

The City of Ottawa is appealing an OMB decision that restricted its ability to decide building heights in its Official Plan (see press release here).  I don't have any solid information about how likely this appeal is to succeed (which is hard to tell from the city's press release).  However, I have the vague sense that it is more likely to fail than not; the City may just be appealing the ruling for political reasons, and not because they expect to win.

Iran Nuclear Agreement

Q150: When will Iran and the P5+1 reach a final agreement over Iran's nuclear program?
In the month of June: 25%
In the month of July: 35%
Not before the end of July: 40%

Iran and various Western countries (known as the P5+1) reached a framework agreement in early April over Iran's nuclear program (see BBC article here).  They are to reach a final agreement by the end of June.  Talks seem to be proceeding to reach that goal, with some speculation that an agreement will be reached before the deadline (see article here).

I think that a final agreement will probably be reached by or not that much after the deadline.  I am not very confident of this however.  Previous negotiations about Iran's nuclear program have featured a lot of delays, so that may happen in this case as well.  If an agreement is reached, it will probably happen just after the deadline (ie. in July), not before the deadline.  Negotiations of this sort rarely conclude before the deadline.

Marijuana Laws

Q149: By the end of 2016, will the federal government introduce a law
Decriminalizing Marijuana: 15%
Legalizing Marijuana: 10%
(If multiple laws are passed, the first one shall be the one that resolves the question.  This question refers to recreational marijuana, not medical marijuana)

There has been some speculation that marijuana might be decriminalized or legalized in the near future (see article here).   In the US, Colorado and Washington State have legalized marijuana. The Liberals support legalization, the NDP support decriminalization, and the Conservatives support the status quo.  However, there seems to be some scepticism over whether Trudeau would actually follow through in pursuing legalization.  Creating appropriate legislation might also take a fair amount of time.

I think that decriminalization or legalization of marijuana are about equally likely, but neither are that likely.  Both are very unlikely if the Conservatives win the next election, and less than 50% likely even if the Liberals or NDP win.  The Liberals or NDP might well back away from their promises to legalize/decriminalize, or delay the introduction of a law beyond the end of 2016.

Toronto Police Carding

Q148: Before the end of 2015, will the Toronto Police permanently stop the practice of carding?
Yes: 70%
(An extension of the current moratorium would not count for the purposes of this question)

There have been various calls for the Toronto police to end the practice of carding, a police procedure which involves stopping and questioning people, even when no criminal activity is suspected to have taken place.  There has been a moratorium in place on the practice since January of this year.  The chair of the Toronto Police Services Board, as well as Toronto Mayor John Tory, have come out against the practice, while the current police chief and the police union support it (see article here).  Tory plans to call for the elimination of the practice at the next Police Services Board meeting on June 18th.

Given the level of opposition to the practice, I think that it will probably be eliminated before the end of the year.  The June 18th meeting provides a definite timeline for the elimination of the practice.

New York Escapee Apprehension

Q147: When will either of the escapees from the Clinton Correctional Facility be apprehended?
Before June 13th: 50%
Between June 13th and June 30th: 20%
Not before June 30th: 30%
(This question will be resolved if either of the escapees are brought back into police custody, "dead or alive")

Last Saturday morning (June 6th), two prisoners in New York State's Clinton Correctional Facility escaped (see story here).   An extensive manhunt is going on to find them, and a $100,000 reward has been offered for information leading to their apprehension.  From public statements, there do not seem to have been any clear leads.

I think that at least one of the escapees will be apprehended before the end of the week; the level of attention paid to this sort of case will make it difficult for them to escape.  However, if they are not apprehended by the end of the week, it is quite possible that they will not be apprehended by the end of the month.

Primordial Gravity Waves

Q146: Before the end of 2016, will a reputable group of scientists announce that they have detected evidence of primordial gravity waves?
Yes: 20%
(This question is very similar to SciCast question 387)

Primordial gravitational waves are an expected consequence of some theories of (cosmological) inflation.  In 2014, researchers using the BICEP2 telescope claimed to have detected these waves, but their findings were later retracted due to evidence of intervening dust clouds responsible for the signal (see story here).  However, there still seem to be several teams attempting to find primordial gravity waves.

Scientific discovery often takes a long time, and I see no evidence that a new announcement is imminent.  I am thus going to go with a fairly low estimate.

Guatemalan Election

Q145: Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Manuel Baldizón: 45%
Alejandro Sinibaldi: 25%
Sandra Torres: 15%
Someone Else: 15%

The next Guatemalan Presidential election is scheduled for September 6th, with a possible second round on October 20th if no one gets more than 50% of the vote (see reference here).  The incumbent, Otto Pérez Molina, of the PP party, is ineligible to run due to term limits.  Manuel Baldizón, of the LIDER party, seems to be the frontrunner.  His main competitor appears to be Alejandro Sinibaldi of the PP party, while Sandra Torres of the UNE party seems to be a third viable candidate.  Polls from last year, of uncertain reliability, suggest that Baldizón has 44% support, Sinibaldi 33%, and Torres 16% (see Spanish site here).

Baldizón certainly seems most likely to win, followed by Sinibaldi and then Torres.  It is also possible that none of the three candidates may win.  This could happen some fourth party wins the election, or one of the three major parties nominates an unexpected candidate and then wins,   I don't have a lot of confidence in forecasts about a place like Guatemala, since I am not very familiar with it.

TFSA Lifetime Contribution Limit

Q144: By the end of 2016, will the federal government officially announce a lifetime contribution limit or lifetime value limit for TFSAs?
Yes: 15%
(A lifetime value limit is a limit on the total value of investments that can be held in a TFSA)

There has been some suggestion that that a lifetime contribution limit will be imposed for TFSAs (see article here), especially with the higher annual contribution limit.  South Africa, which has recently introduced TFSAs, included a lifetime contribution limit.

As far as I know, there have been no definite promises of a lifetime contribution limit by any current politician.  In the medium to long run, I think a lifetime contribution limit (or something like it) is very likely to be introduced, but I don't think one will necessarily be introduced in the short run.

Molycorp Bankruptcy Protection

Q143: Before the end of 2015, will Molycorp Inc. file for bankruptcy protection?
Yes: 70%

Molycorp, a US miner of rare-earth elements, has been experiencing serious financial problems, due to low prices for rare earth metals.  According to recent rumours, it may file for bankruptcy protection (see story here).  It seems that the plans are not finalized, and the rumours may be a bargaining tactic.  Still, I think that it is more likely than not that Molycorp will indeed file for bankruptcy protection by the end of year.  The most plausible alternative is some sort of negotiated settlement with their creditors.

Lincoln Heights Walmart

Q142: Before the end of 2015, will Walmart officially announce that it is closing its Lincoln Fields location?
Yes: 45%

Walmart has announced that it will be taking over the former (unopened) Target location at Bayshore.  This puts the future of the current Lincoln Fields Walmart in doubt.  The Lincoln Fields location is rather near Bayshore (and also near the Baseline/Clyde location), and is probably a bit smaller and less well-located than those other locations. Indeed, there were concerns that the Lincoln Fields location would close when the Baseline/Clyde location opened.  I think that it is quite possible that Walmart will close the Lincoln Fields location in the near future, but it is hardly a certainty.  Walmart might decide to keep the location, or delay its closing beyond the end of 2015.

Burmese Election

Q141: What party will win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the next Burmese election?
UDSP: 35%
NLD: 55%
Some other party: 10%
(The reported results are what matter for this question.  For the purposes of this question, it does not matter if the government refuses to honour the results.  Military-appointed seats do not count for any party for the purposes of this question.  If no election is held before the end of 2016, this question will close in favour of the UDSP)

The next Burmese election is scheduled for October or November 2015 (see Wikipedia article here). All of the (non-appointed) seats in the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, will be available.   In the last general election in 2010, the army-supported UDSP won the majority of seats (Burma used to be governed by the army, and still is to some extent).  However, the election was widely perceived as illegitimate, and the NLD, the main opposition party, boycotted it (see article here).  In the by-elections of 2012, the NLD won almost all of the limited number of seats available.  Historically, the NLD was also very successful in the 1990 general election (although the results were not recognized by the military junta at the time).

The sense I have is that the NLD will almost certainly win the most seats, if the election is held fairly.  However, it is quite possible it will not be.  In particular, it is possible that the NLD will be prevented from participating in the election.  Another possibility is that the NLD will be allowed to win the election, but somehow be prevented from wielding real power.  Overall, I think that it is slightly more likely than not that the NLD will win the election.

Trican Default

Q140: Before the end of 2016, will Trican Well Services enter creditor protection, default on its loan obligations, or cease operating?
Yes: 20%

Trican Well Services, an oilfield services company, is in some financial trouble due to current low oil prices (see article here).  They have suspended their annual dividend, significantly reduced their workforce, and are currently in negotiations on loosening the terms of their debt.

I think it is quite possible that Trican will be unable to meet its debt obligations.  However, it is also possible that the will be able to delay the day of reckoning beyond the end of 2016.  They might also return to profitability due to rising oil prices.

Questions Resolved in May

A lot of questions resolved in May:

• Q12, Q68, and Q95 (Ontario PC Leadership Race) have resolved for Patrick Brown.  I said this had a 3%, 35%, and 60% chance of happening.  I certainly underestimated Patrick Brown in the first forecast, and possibly in the latter two forecasts as well.  I will be increasing my odds for underdogs in leadership races in the future.
• Q25 (Target Stores: Walmart) has resolved for yes, as Walmart has announced that it will take over the former Targets at Bayshore and Billings Bridge.  I said this had a 75% chance of happening, which might have actually been too high.
• Q81 (Aden Capture) has resolved for "later [than April] or never".  The Houthis have not been able to capture Aden.  I said this has a 30% chance of happening.  Overall, I have probably been overestimating how fast military captures of this type will happen.
• Q92 and Q112 (Alberta Election) have resolved for "NDP minority/majority" and "NDP majority".  I said this had a 5% and a 35% chance of happening, respectively.  I might have underestimated the NDP slightly at the beginning of the campaign, but the NDP's rise was a genuinely unlikely event for which a 5% estimate was not completely inappropriate.
• Q100 (High School Strike Durham) has resolved for "Not before May 9th" because students took that long to return to class.   I said this had a 35% chance of happening, which seems about right.
• Q108 (PEI Election) has resolved for the Liberals, which I said had a 95% chance of happening.
• Q110 (BC Teacher Rights) has resolved for no.  The BC Court of Appeal ruled that 2002 provincial legislation did not unconstitutionally restrict teachers' collective bargaining rights.  This is at odds with the findings of the BC.Supreme Court.  I said this had a 40% chance of happening,
• Q111 (Omar Khadr Release) has resolved for "Before May 31", which I said had a 50% chance of happening.  Khadr was released on schedule in early May.  I might have slightly underestimated the chance that this would happen.
• Q118 (Ramadi Capture) has resolved to yes.  I said this had a 40% chance of happening, which seems too low given how quickly it happened.
• Q121 (High School Strike Peel) has resolved for "Before May 31st" as the strike ended and Peel Students returned to class.  I said this had a 35% chance of happening.
• Q131 (Ottawa Champions Attendance) has resolved for "3500-4000", which I said had a 40% chance of happening.  The official attendance was 3876, in line with official estimates, which seem to have been fairly accurate in this case.

Overall, the Ontario PC leadership race and Alberta election suggest that I may have underestimated the chances of underdogs in elections.  I think that my high school strike estimates were reasonably good, because I erred in different directions for the two questions.  I made similar offsetting errors in my Aden Capture and Ramadi Capture questions.