Burmese Election

Q141: What party will win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the next Burmese election?
UDSP: 35%
NLD: 55%
Some other party: 10%
(The reported results are what matter for this question.  For the purposes of this question, it does not matter if the government refuses to honour the results.  Military-appointed seats do not count for any party for the purposes of this question.  If no election is held before the end of 2016, this question will close in favour of the UDSP)

The next Burmese election is scheduled for October or November 2015 (see Wikipedia article here). All of the (non-appointed) seats in the lower chamber, the House of Representatives, will be available.   In the last general election in 2010, the army-supported UDSP won the majority of seats (Burma used to be governed by the army, and still is to some extent).  However, the election was widely perceived as illegitimate, and the NLD, the main opposition party, boycotted it (see article here).  In the by-elections of 2012, the NLD won almost all of the limited number of seats available.  Historically, the NLD was also very successful in the 1990 general election (although the results were not recognized by the military junta at the time).

The sense I have is that the NLD will almost certainly win the most seats, if the election is held fairly.  However, it is quite possible it will not be.  In particular, it is possible that the NLD will be prevented from participating in the election.  Another possibility is that the NLD will be allowed to win the election, but somehow be prevented from wielding real power.  Overall, I think that it is slightly more likely than not that the NLD will win the election.