Friday, 12 June 2015

Iran Nuclear Agreement

Q150: When will Iran and the P5+1 reach a final agreement over Iran's nuclear program?
In the month of June: 25%
In the month of July: 35%
Not before the end of July: 40%

Iran and various Western countries (known as the P5+1) reached a framework agreement in early April over Iran's nuclear program (see BBC article here).  They are to reach a final agreement by the end of June.  Talks seem to be proceeding to reach that goal, with some speculation that an agreement will be reached before the deadline (see article here).

I think that a final agreement will probably be reached by or not that much after the deadline.  I am not very confident of this however.  Previous negotiations about Iran's nuclear program have featured a lot of delays, so that may happen in this case as well.  If an agreement is reached, it will probably happen just after the deadline (ie. in July), not before the deadline.  Negotiations of this sort rarely conclude before the deadline.

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