Greek Referendum

Q165: What will be the result of the proposed Greek referendum on the bailout proposal?
The Creditors' Proposal will be Approved: 20%
The Creditors' Proposal will not be Approved: 30%
No referendum will be held before the end of July: 50%
(A referendum on a slightly different proposal would count.  A general election would not count)

The Greek government has called a referendum on the latest bailout proposal on July 5th (see article here).  The government is recommending that the bailout proposal be rejected, although voters might not follow this suggestion.   There seems to be considerable doubt about whether a referendum can be held on such short notice, as well as whether the proposal will still be available when the referendum is held.   There was an unrealized threat of a referendum on a previous referendum proposal in 2011.  The Greek parliament has approved the referendum (see article here).

The situation seems very uncertain and fluid.  I think that the most likely outcome is that no referendum will be held, either because negotiations will continue and succeed, or because the proposal to be voted on is no longer available or relevant.  It seems that Greece will have to default on its IMF payment on June 30th, which might well make the referendum irrelevant.  If a referendum is held, it could go either way, but voters are probably slightly more likely to reject the proposal.