Target Stores: Loblaw

Q31: By the end of 2015, will any Loblaw family stores announce that they will take over any of the space of the Ottawa Target stores?
Yes: 15%
No: 85%

It has been suggested that Loblaws may be interested in the current Target locations.   I think this will probably not happen in Ottawa.  Most of the current locations would be in direct competition with current Loblaw stores.  St. Laurent would seem like the most likely location, but even it is uncomfortably close to the Vanier and Gloucester Centre Loblaws.

Target Stores: Goodlife Fitness

Q30: By the end of 2015, will Goodlife Fitness announce that it will take over any of the space of the Ottawa Target stores?
Yes: 70%
No: 30%

Goodlife Fitness has expressed interest in taking over some of the former Target locations.  They seem to have fairly ambitious expansion plans.  Many of the Ottawa locations would seem to be reasonably well-suited to Goodlife.   I think they will probably take over at least one of the locations.

Donetsk Airport

Q29: By the end of 2015, who will control the Donetsk airport?
Ukraine: 25%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 70%
Someone else: 5%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control.  If the airport is in control of officially recognized Russian forces, this question will resolve as "Rebels or Russia".  "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)

The Donetsk airport is on the front lines in the current fight between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian rebels (map here).  It has great symbolic value to both sides.  The airport was recently captured by rebel forces.

I think the airport will remain in rebel hands for the remainder of 2015.  Recapture by Ukrainian forces is possible, but difficult.  The airport might return to Ukrainian hands via diplomatic means, but diplomacy takes time.

SC mandatory minimum sentences

Q28: Will the Supreme Court strike down mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes?
Yes: 70%
No: 30%

The Supreme Court is currently considering a case relating to mandatory minimum sentences for gun crimes.  The Ontario Court of Appeal previously ruled that the mandatory minimum sentences were "cruel and unusual punishment".  I think the Supreme Court will probably rule the same way, but am somewhat uncertain about it.

Supply Management

Q27: Will significant changes in any of Canada's agricultural supply management systems be announced in 2015?
Yes: 10%
No: 90%
(Definition note: A significant change could affect the export tariffs or quotas.  On the other hand, an announcement that "further consultations will be held" would not count as a significant change.  This is a fuzzy question, so it might be difficult to resolve)

With the TPP talks now under way, there is some speculation that Canada's supply management system might be amended.  I do not think this will happen, at least not in 2015.  The current system has strong political support from all parties.  It is unlikely to be significantly altered, at least in an election year.  Also, I am not very optimistic about the TPP talks; it seems to me quite likely that they will fail to reach any sort of substantial agreement.

Moons of Pluto

Q26: Will any previously undiscovered moons of Pluto be discovered by the New Horizons probe?
Yes: 75%
No: 25%
(Definition note: The question will not count either way if the New Horizons probe fails)

The New Horizons probe will be searching for as-yet undiscovered moons of Pluto.  According to the Wikipedia article, it is expected to find moons down to a 2km diameter.  The smallest detected moon of Pluto, Styx, is around 15km in diameter.  It is plausible that there might be a number of smaller moons; Jupiter and Saturn both have a large number of smaller moons (in the 2-10km range).  According to this article, Pluto might have as many as 10 moons (although the theory that this prediction is based on might be in error).

Target Stores: Walmart

Q25: By the end of 2015, will Walmart announce that it will take over any of the space of the Ottawa Target stores?
Yes: 75%
No: 25%
(Definition note: As with the previous question, the Bayshore Target counts)

With the demise of Target in Canada, there has been speculation that Walmart may take over some of the current Target locations.  Given that they took over one of the previous Zellers locations in Ottawa, this seems like a real possibility.  As well, Walmart would be a relatively easy tenant to accommodate, since their stores are similar to Target's.  I think Walmart is most likely to take over the Billings Bridge Target, but could take over any of the current locations.

Target Stores: Giant Tiger

Q24: By the end of 2015, will Giant Tiger announce that it will take over any of the space of the Ottawa Target stores?
Yes: 70%
No: 30%
(Definition note: The Bayshore Target is included as an "Ottawa Target store")

According to this article, there is some speculation that Giant Tiger will move into some of the space that will be vacated when Target leaves.  They seem to be open to the idea.  I think this will probably happen, but not necessarily in any of the Ottawa locations.

National Securities Regulator

Q23: Will a Canadian federal law enabling a national securities regulator be passed by the end of 2015?
Yes: 75%
No: 25%

The Conservative government has been pushing for the creation of a national securities regulator, called the Cooperative Capital Markets Regulatory System (CCRMS).  Five provinces have agreed to join the initiative.  According to the CCRMS website, federal legislation should be enacted by June 30 of this year.

There seems to be some suggestion that the deadlines regarding the CCRMS are overly optimistic.  This is certainly believable, but there is a lot of room for the legislation to be passed before then.  It is also possible that it might be derailed by a change in government or an unfavourable court result (like the last attempt at a national securities regulator).  Still, I think the legislation will be passed by the end of the year.

I was inspired by this article, which was making a valid but somewhat different point.

Sears in Ottawa

Q22: Will it be announced in 2015 that any of the Sears locations in Ottawa will close or change ownership?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%

 Sears Canada has recently been in serious financial trouble, with declining sales and significant financial losses.  There have been (unconfirmed, probably false) rumours that Sears Canada will enter creditor protection.

There are currently 4 Sears locations in Ottawa.  The location at Rideau Centre closed in 2012.  Given the recent problems, the closure of another location is a real possibility.  However, I think that Sears will hang on, at least for 2015.  Even if it enters creditor protection, the current stores will probably continue as Sears.  Declines of this sort take more than a year.

Cyrovolcanism on Pluto and Charon

Q21: Will the New Horizons probe find clear evidence of recent (last 100m years) cyrovolcanism on
Neither Pluto nor Charon: 15%
Pluto only: 5%
Charon only: 25%
Both Pluto and Charon: 55%

From the Wikipedia article, "A cryovolcano (colloquially known as an ice volcano) is a volcano that erupts volatiles such as water, ammonia or methane, instead of molten rock".  Cyrovolcanism has been observed on Triton, which is thought to be a (captured) Kuiper Belt Object (like Pluto).  There is some speculation that there might be cyrovolcanism on Pluto and Charon.

There has been some solid (but not conclusive) evidence of cyrovolcanism on Charon.  The evidence seems less clear for Pluto.  Given how similar Pluto and Charon are, I think that evidence will be found on Pluto as well, although I am less certain than I am for Charon.

SC Extradition Appeal

Q20: Will the Supreme Court strike down the extradition order of Anthony Barnaby and David Caplin?
Yes: 35%
No: 65%

Barnaby and Caplin, who are Canadian citizens (as far as I can tell), are accused of murdering a pair of women in New Hampshire in 1988.  They faced three trials in 1989-1990, all of which ended in hung juries.  Prosecutors there are trying to extradite them for a fourth trial.  The Quebec Court of Appeal struck down that extradition order.  The Supreme Court is hearing the government's appeal to reinstate the order.  Hearings started on January 13.

The nature of Supreme Court cases is that there is no obvious result (or else the Supreme Court would never have heard the case).  However, I think the Supreme Court will uphold the extradition order; my impression is that extradition orders are rarely overturned.  The case of Hassan Diab might be relevant here.  If the Court wanted to strike down the order, it could have just not heard the appeal.

Islamist Terrorism in the US

Q19: Will there be a lethal Islamist terrorist attack in the US in 2015?
Yes: 35%
No: 65%
(see definition note for question 18)

 The terrorist attacks in October, together with the more recent attacks in France and Australia, have increased the perceived risk of a Islamist terrorist attack.  Since 2000, there have been lethal Islamist attacks in the US in 2001, 2002 (2 incidents), 2006 (1 debatable incident), 2009 (2 incidents), and 2013 (1 incident).  This suggests a 33% estimate (with a 5-year half-life of decay).  The recent attacks outside the US are not counted in this estimate, so I will increase it to 35%.

Terrorism in Canada

Q18: Will there be a lethal terrorist attack in Canada in 2015?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Definition note: "lethal", in this context, means that the attack results in the death of at least one person who is not responsible for the attack.  "Terrorist attack" should be construed broadly.  The attacks on October 20 and 22 of last year would have qualified under this definition, as would the attack on PQ leader Pauline Marois in September 2012, as well as all the lethal attacks on this list.  The daycare shooting in Gatineau in 2013 would not count)

The terrorist attacks in October, together with the more recent attacks in France and Australia, have increased the perceived risk of a terrorist attack in Canada.  Looking at the broader historical record, the situation is less clear.  From the Wikipedia list of terrorist incidents in Canada, since 1980, there have been lethal terrorist attacks in 1982, 1984 (2 incidents), 1985 (2 incidents), 1998, 2012, and 2014 (2 incidents).  So there have been attacks in about 17% of years.  Admittedly, this number does not take into account the relative timing of years (the attack in 1982 counts for as much as the ones in 2014).  Assuming the relevance of a year decays with a half-life of 5 years, I get a 25% estimate for 2015, which I will use.

The risk of Islamic terrorism may be elevated due to recent attacks.  This is taken into account by my discounting procedure.  It is relevant here that there were no successful Islamist attacks in Canada following the 9/11 attacks, although the risk level was elevated then as well.

Beer Store Franchise Fee

Q17: Will legislation requiring the Beer Store to pay a franchise fee be passed before the end of 2015?
Yes: 60%
No: 40%

An Ontario government panel recently recommended that the Beer Store be charged a "franchise fee", in return for continuing to operate as a monopoly.  Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne has expressed some support for this proposal.

I think a franchise fee is the most likely outcome of the current situation; it might not be too expensive for the brewers running the beer store, and it would increase Ontario government revenue .  A significant loosening of the monopoly would be much more disruptive and not increase revenue as much.  Continuing with the status quo would make the government look weak.  Still, a lot of things could happen, so I am hesitant to give too high odds to the franchise fee possibility.

TFSA Expansion

Q16: Will the Canadian federal government expand the annual contribution limit for TFSAs in 2015?
Yes: 75%
No: 25%
(Definition note: The ordinary expansion in the limit due to inflation adjustment does not count.  The 2015 limit  need not be increased; it is sufficient that a law is passed increasing future years' limits)

In the 2011 election, the Conservatives promised to expand the annual contribution limit for TFSAs to $10,000 a year.  Recently, Harper has been more ambiguous about the TFSA expansion.
I think the Conservatives probably will expand the contribution limit; it would not cost that much in 2015, and so would not interfere with balancing the budget.

E-Commerce Sales Tax

Q15: Will the Canadian federal government require that sales tax be charged on e-commerce sales from abroad by the end of 2015?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Definition note: This question will be resolved as yes if a law to this effect is passed by the end of 2015; the new sales tax does not actually have to go into effect)

Currently, sales tax is notionally payable on e-commerce sales from abroad, but does not have to be collected by the foreign vendor.  In practice, almost no one declares the resulting tax liability.  The federal government has recently asked for input on requiring foreign vendors to charge the tax themselves.  In practice, this would increase taxes on popular on-line services and products (e.g. Netflix, Amazon.com eBooks) but increase government revenues (this is kind of a reverse flypaper theory effect).

The EU has already introduced sales tax on e-commerce sales from abroad.  I think that Canada will do so as well, but not in 2015.  The optics of increasing taxes in an election year would discourage it.  Most likely, there will be further consultations or delay, leading to an eventual introduction of taxes in 2016 or later.

Target Leaving Canada

This is a question I had prepared on Sunday to release next Tuesday.  It has resolved (to yes) before I got the chance to post it.  Here is my original planned post:

Will Target Canada announce it is leaving the Canadian market in 2015?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%

According to this article, there has been some speculation that Target will exit the Canadian market in 2015, due to disappointing sales.  According to the Motley Fool, "The company has indicated it plans to review its future in Canada early in the new year" (I am not sure how reliable this information is).    Although Target leaving Canada is a definite possibility, I think it will probably not happen, at least in 2015.  Target has already incurred substantial costs to enter Canada, and that will dissuade them from leaving quickly.  It would also have to incur substantial costs to exit early.

Balanced Budget 2015

Q14: Will the Canadian federal government run a balanced budget in 2015?
Yes: 75%
No: 25%
(Definition note: The initial budget for the 2015-2016 fiscal year is all that matters for this question.  Later updates are irrelevant)

The federal government has repeatedly promised to run a balanced budget in 2015.  Lower oil prices might make this more difficult.  A recent TD report has suggested that the budget cannot be balanced without changes in spending or revenue.  However, I think the government will stand by its pledge.  If necessary, it could use accounting tricks to ensure the budget is balanced, given how close the government is to a balanced budget.

Supreme Court Assisted Suicide

Q13: Will the Supreme Court overturn the Canadian criminal code statute against assisted suicide?
Yes: 50%
No: 50%
(Definition note: A partial overturning of the law counts as a "yes")

The Supreme Court is currently deliberating the Carter case (see coverage here).  The plaintiffs in that case would like the court to overturn the current law against assisted suicide.  Based on media stories, it is not clear what the decision will be.  There was a previous (rather close) decision in 1993 which confirmed the current law.

I am very unsure how this case will be decided, so am going to give equal odds to both outcomes.

Ontario PC Leadership Race

Q12: Who will win the Ontario Progressive Conservative (PC) Leadership Race?
Christine Elliott: 85%
Lisa MacLeod: 7%
Patrick Brown: 3%
Someone Else: 5%

Christine Elliot is the clear frontrunner; she is leading in the polls by a large margin,  She also has a large lead in terms of endorsements.  Lisa MacLeod seems to be the second-place candidate.  Because the PC leadership race will use a preferential ballot, it is possible that MacLeod (or someone else) might win on a later ballot, due to second-place (or more) votes from vanquished candidates.  However, those votes might go to Elliott as well, as she does not seem to be a particularly divisive candidate.

Senators Lebreton Flats

Q11: Will the Ottawa Senators arena proposal win the NCC Lebreton Flats Design Competition?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(Definition note: The answer will be yes if the Senators' proposal is selected as the "recommended proposal" by the NCC board.  It does not need to get cabinet approval)

The Ottawa Senators have announced that they are submitting a proposal for a new arena on NCC land in Lebreton Flats.  They will have to compete with other proposals for the land, not all of which are clear at this point.  A decision is expected by late 2015 or early 2016.

Although the Senators' proposal has gotten a lot of attention, it does not seem to have a great deal of political support.  Jim Watson sounds somewhat ambivalent about it.  It does not seem like the sort of proposal that the NCC would support; it might be seen as not having enough public benefit.  However, it might still win if the competing proposals are sufficiently weak,

Keystone XL Approval

Q10: Will a US Federal bill approving the Keystone XL pipeline become law in 2015?
Yes: 20%
No: 80%

Republicans in the US House of Representatives and Senate have introduced a bill to approve the Keystone XL pipeline.  The bill is opposed by most Democrats and Obama.  Obama has threatened to use his presidential veto if the bill is passed.  The bill appears to have enough support in Congress to be passed by both houses of Congress, but not to override the presidential veto.

I do not think that any bill approving the pipeline will become law.  Obama has never supported the pipeline, and probably will continue in that stance (despite the recent Nebraska decision in favour of the pipeline).  The Republicans will not be able to override the presidential veto.  Also, low oil prices might decrease supply sufficiently to make the pipeline uneconomic (at least given probable delays).

First Resolved Question

Q4 (Sri Lankan Election) has resolved for Maithripala Sirisena, whom I said had a 70% chance of winning.  The election was fairly close (he won with 51.3% of the vote), so I think my forecast was reasonable.  This is the first question of this series to resolve.

Canada Overnight Rate

Time for that perennial economic forecasting question...

Q9: What will the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate be at the end of 2015?
0.75% or lower: 15%
1.00%: 20%
1.25%: 25%
1.5%: 20%
1.75% or higher: 20%

The current overnight rate is 1%.  Of the big 5 Canadian banks, 1 expects the rate to stay at 1%, 2 expect the rate to increase to 1.25%, and 2 expect the rate to increase to 1.5%.  Based on that, an increase to 1.25% or 1.5% seems most likely.  An increase to 1.75% (or higher) wouldn't be that surprising either.  If there are economic problems, a rate cut is also possible.

Canadian GDP Growth

Q8: What will Canadian GDP grow by in 2015?

Below 1%: 15%

Between 1% and 2%: 25%

Between 2% and 3%: 35%

Above 3%: 25%

(Definition Note: This question refers to the growth in real, expenditure-based GDP, as recorded in Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 380-0064)

According to estimates from the "Big Six Banks", Canada's GDP Growth Rate for 2015 is expected to be about 2.2%.  I think this sort of forecast is not very useful; it is not much more accurate than just taking the long-term average GDP growth rate as an estimate.  Historical data suggests suggests a base rate estimate of 16%-16%-31%-38%.  I think that is a bit too optimistic, so I am weighting "1% to 2%" a bit more, and "above 3%" a bit less.

Canadian Dollar

Q7: What will the value of the Canadian Dollar in US Dollars be at the end of 2015?
Less than 80 cents: 25%
Between 80 and 85 cents: 25%
Between 85 and 90 cents: 25%
Greater than 90 cents: 25%
(Definition note: The Bank of Canada exchange rate on noon of December 31, 2015 shall be used)

The Canadian Dollar is currently worth about 85 cents US.  It fell significantly in 2014 from about 94 cents.  There is some speculation that it will either fall further or rally back to where it was before.

I think that (accurate, substantially weighted in one direction) predictions of what will happen in liquid markets of this type are almost impossible.  If it were obvious what will happen, then why do prices not already reflect it?  There might be a limited bias for the Canadian dollar to return to its purchasing power parity level, but it appears it is already at that level, so that does not suggest change in one direction or another.  Thus, the Canadian dollar is equally likely to be above 85 cents as below 85 cents.

Looking at the past 10 years of exchange rate data, the change in the exchange rate would have been sufficient to move the Canadian Dollar out of the 80-90 cent range in 5 out of the last 10 years.  Putting that together with the equal likelihood of movement up and down, I get a 25% estimate for each of the bins.

Palestine ICC Bid

Q6: Will Palestine be accepted as a member of the International Criminal Court (ICC) by July 1, 2015?
Yes: 85%
No: 15%

Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, recently took the first step toward joining the ICC by signing its founding document, the Rome Statute.  If accepted, Palestine will try to get the ICC to investigate controversial Israeli actions.  Israel and its allies oppose Palestine joining the ICC.

According to most of the commentary I have seen, Palestine is expected to be accepted as a member of the ICC in two months.  According to this article,

Some experts are convinced that the ICC will immediately accept the Palestinians’ application.

 However, this does not seem to be a sure thing.  It does not seem completely clear if Palestine counts as a "state" for the purposes of the ICC.  Also, Palestine could presumably withdraw its application (although I feel this is unlikely).  However, the balance of evidence suggests that the application will be accepted.

Greek Legislative Election

Q5: Which party will win the most seats in the Greek Legislative Election on January 25, 2015?
New Democracy (ND): 20%
Coalition of the Radical Left (SYRIZA): 80%

SYRIZA, an anti-austerity party, is currently leading in the polls by about 5% to ND, the incumbent party.  Greece has a proportional representation system, so the party with the most votes will have the most seats (although there are also bonus seats for the party with the most votes).

Based on data in Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise (pg. 63), a senate candidate with a 5% lead in the polls with a month to the election has a 81% chance of winning.  This would suggest that SYRIZA has a 80% or so chance of winning, which I think is reasonable.

Sri Lankan Presidential Election

Q4: Who will win the Sri Lankan Presidential Election?
Mahinda Rajapaksa: 30%
Maithripala Sirisena: 70%

There seems to be a lot of speculation that incumbent president Mahinda Rajapaksa will lose the upcoming presidential election on January 8th to Maithripala Sirisena.  There have been a number of defections from his party to that of opponent.  Unfortunately, there do not seem to be any reliable polls.

My sense is that Sirisena will probably win, but it would not be at all surprising if Rajapaksa won. The conventional wisdom appears to be that Sirisena will win.  According to one story,

A survey by The Center for Policy Alternatives (CPA), a Colombo-based think tank, found that 76 percent of respondents believed Sirisena would win if elections were held immediately.

 However, incumbents have won 100% of the presidential elections in Sri Lanka since they started in 1988 (although this election might be closer than previous elections).  Rajapaksa seems to have strong media support (from the state-controlled media),  Many foreign observers would probably prefer Sirisena to win, and that might make the coverage of the election slightly biased.

Federal Election Result

Another question on the federal election:

Q3: What will be the result of the 2015 Federal Election?
Conservative Majority: 10%
Conservative Minority: 25%
Liberal Minority: 40%
Liberal Majority: 20%
NDP Minority/Majority: 5%

(Definition note: For the context of this question, a minority for a party means that the party has the most seats in the House of Commons after the election, but not the majority of seats.  Such a party will likely, but is not certain to, form a minority government.)

According to recent polls, well summarized by threehundredeight.com, the Liberals have a slight lead of 35% to 32% on the Conservatives.  These numbers suggest a Liberal minority.  A lot of things could happen before the election, but that is probably the most likely outcome.  A Conservative minority is also distinct possibility (some polls seem to suggest that, in fact).  A Liberal majority is also possible (especially if the Liberals profit from the Mike Duffy trial),  Another Conservative Majority is also possible, but less likely.

It is also possible that the NDP could win the plurality of seats.  The NDP have never been able to do this in the past at the federal level, and they are a long way from it now according to current polls, so I am assigning this possibility a low probability.

Federal Election Date

It's time to look at the upcoming federal election.

Q2: When will the next federal election take place?
Before June 1, 2015: 20%
Between June 1, 2015 and September 30, 2015: 10%
On or after October 1, 2015: 70%

The next federal election is scheduled for October 19, 2015.  The Conservatives could call the election earlier; there is a fair amount of speculation about a "spring election" to avoid the Mike Duffy trial.  The Conservatives have indicated that they plan to hold the election on the scheduled date, although they may change their mind.

The level of speculation leads me to believe that an early election is a distinct possibility.  There has been an early election before with the current fixed election date law (in 2008).  However, the conventional wisdom seems to be that the election will be held on the fixed date.  I will thus put a 70% weight on this.

If the election is held early, I think it will probably be held before June 1st.  The speculation seems to be focussed on a "spring" election, not a summer election.  An election in July or August is less likely, given vacation schedules.  An election in September would be too close to the scheduled date.

Ottawa Shooting Incidents in 2015

For my first non-election prediction, I am going to look at crime.

Q1: Will the number of shootings in the City of Ottawa in 2015 be higher or equal to the number in 2014 (49)?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%

There has been a lot of attention paid to the recent spate of shootings in Ottawa.  There were 49 shootings in 2014, which is a record.  The problem seems to be gang-related,  In 2012 and 2013, there were around 30 shootings.  I think that the number of shootings will probably be lower in 2015, closer to the 2012-2013 levels.  There does not seem to be a clear, overarching reason for the shootings in 2014.  It may just be a temporary feud that will settle down in 2015.