Saskatchewan Election v2

Which party will win the most seats in the next Saskatchewan general election?
Saskatchewan Party: 95%
NDP: 5%

The Saskatchewan Election will be held on April 4th, about a month from now (see my previous post here, and 308's coverage here).  The Saskatchewan Party has slipped slightly in the most recent poll, and the NDP have gained; the Saskatchewan Party now only has a 52% to 34% lead.  However, the NDP are running out of time to make further gains, so I am increasing my confidence in a Saskatchewan Party victory.

AECL Case

Will the Supreme Court decide that the dismissal of Joseph Wilson was unjust?
Yes: 35%

The Supreme Court is currently in the process of deciding on the case of Joseph Wilson, an AECL employee who was fired in 2009 without cause (see articles here and here).  The original adjudicator found in his favour, but the Federal Court and Federal Court of Appeal concluded that the dismissal was not unjust.  I think that is what the Supreme Court will side with the lower courts, but there seems to be a fair amount of uncertainty, given the conflicting rulings.

Federal Budget Deficit v2

What will be the federal government budget deficit for the 2016-2017 fiscal year, according to the budget as originally tabled?
Less than $15 billion: 5%
Between $15 and $20 billion: 15%
Between $20 and $25 billion: 50%
Between $25 and $30 billion: 20%
More than $30 billion: 10%

The federal government is projecting a deficit of $18.4 billion in 2016-2017, before new spending programs are accounted for (see story here).  There is speculation that the deficit could be large as $29 million (see story here).

It seems likely that the deficit will be in the $20 to $25 billion range, given additional spending; that would allow the Liberals to fulfil their promise of reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio.  A larger deficit is possible if the Liberals want to spend more, and a smaller deficit is possible if conditions improve.  A deficit larger than $30 billion seems unlikely, as does a deficit significantly smaller than the most recent projection.

Assisted Suicide Law v3

Before June 6th, 2016, what will happen with regards to Canada's assisted suicide law?
A new law will be passed regulating assisted suicide: 65%
The current law will be extended by the Supreme Court: 10%
The current law will expire: 25%

Since my previous post on this topic, the Supreme Court has extended the old law prohibiting assisted suicide by four months (the government wanted six months - see article here).  A further extension seems unlikely to be granted, given the circumstances.  It seems more likely that the current law will expire without a new law coming into force (if only for a short period of time).  However, since that would reflect badly on the government, the most likely outcome is for a new law to be passed.

Apple San Bernardino Opening

Before the end of 2016, will Apple help the FBI to open the iPhone owned by one of the San Bernardino shooters?
Yes: 20%
(If there is no media reporting, a "No" answer will be assumed.  If the US government opens the phone without the help of Apple, that counts as a "No" as well)

A US judge has ordered Apple to open an iPhone owned by one of the San Bernardino shooters (see article here).  Apple has vowed to fight the court order.  This question could trigger if Apple fails in subsequent appeals, or changes its mind and decides to comply with the order.  I think that subsequent appeals will probably go beyond 2016, and Apple is rather unlikely to change its mind.  As well, it is possible that the US government will just open the iPhone on their own if the appeals drag on too long.

Austrian Presidential Election

Who will win the Austrian Presidential Election?
Alexander Van der Bellen: 35%
Rudolf Hundstorfer: 20%
Irmgard Griss: 15%
Norbert Hofer: 15%
Someone Else: 15%

The Austrian Presidential Election will be held in April, with a second round in May (see Wikipedia Article here).  Alexander Van der Bellen seems to be currently leading in the polls, with Irmgard Griss in second and Rudolf Hundstorfer in third.  I'm giving Hundstorfer higher odds because he seems to be associated with a major party.

Libyan Intervention Canada

By the end of 2016, will the federal government announce a military intervention by Canada in Libya?
Yes: 35%
("Military intervention" should be construed broadly)

The Defence Minister, Harjit Sajjan, has hinted that Canada may intervene in Libya against ISIS (see article here).  This seems like a definite possibility, but I am reluctant to go with a higher than 50% probability in the relatively short time frame of this question.

Jian Ghomeshi Verdict

Will Jian Ghomeshi be found guilty of any of the charges against him?
Yes: 35%
(The initial verdict in the current trial is all that matters.)

Jian Ghomeshi is currently on trial for the sexual assault of several women (see articles here and here).  The current consensus seems to be that Ghomeshi will not be found guilty, because the defence did a good job in raising doubts about the main witnesses' credibility.  At the same time, the consensus seems to be that Ghomensi would be found guilty on a "balance of probabilities" basis.  Due to the latter, I am giving a higher estimate than I would otherwise give.

Peruvian Election

Who will win the next Peruvian presidential election?
Keiko Fujimori: 60%
Julio Guzmán: 10%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK): 10%
César Acuña: 10%
Someone Else: 10%

The first round of the Peruvian election is scheduled for April (with a second round in June).  The most recent poll gives Fujimori about 39% of the vote, Guzmán about 20%, PPK about 13%, and Acuña about 9% (see Wikipedia article here).  Fujimori is the clear favorite; she only narrowly lost the last election, and has a huge lead in the polls.  Guzmán has rapidly climbed in the polls recently, so I think that he is less likely to win than his standing in the polls suggests.  PPK and Acuña seem to be the main challengers; both could plausibly win if they gain a lot in the polls.  Also, one of the minor candidates could gain enough ground to win; I do not know enough about Peruvian politics to rule this out.

Office of Religious Freedom

Before the end of 2016, will the closure of the federal Office of Religious Freedom be announced?
Yes: 75%
(Failing to renew the office's funding counts as an announcement for purposes of this question.  A reduction in funding alone does not count)

There has been speculation that the federal government will close the Office of Religious Freedom, which was established by the previous Conservative government (see article here).  Funding for the office runs out this year.  I think that the Office is most likely to close, although its political support could keep it open.

Federal Budget Timing

When will the Canadian federal budget be presented to parliament?
Before March 14th: 10%
The week of March 14th: 25%
The week of March 21st: 35%
The week of March 28th: 20%
After April 3rd: 10%

The federal budget is expected to be presented in mid to late March (see articles here and here).  There seems to be some speculation that the "third week of March" (the week of March 21st, probably) is particularly likely.  Historically, the 2011 budget was (originally) presented on March 22nd, the 2012 budget was presented on March 29th, and the 2013 budget was presented on March 21st (the 2014 budget was in February, while the 2015 budget was in April).

The 2016 budget is for the fiscal year starting April 1st, so it will likely be presented as close to April as possible, without being in April.  Thus, the week of March 21st is the most likely.  The week of March 28th is too late, as is anytime in April.  The week of March 14th is quite possible, although it is slightly less likely than the week of March 21st.  The budget could also be released in early March, although there may not be enough time for this to happen.

Year-End Post-Mortem: Crime

• There were fewer Ottawa Shooting Incidents in 2015 then 2014 (also see my post Ottawa Shootings v2).  In January, I said there was a 75% chance of this, which I decreased to 60% in November.  I think my initial estimate was reasonable, but I may have over-reacted in November.
• There has been no announcement regarding the closure of the main Nunuvut Jail.  I said there was a 25% chance of such an announcement, which was almost certainly too high; closing the jail would have been an extreme step to take.
• As far as I can tell, there has been no permanent ban on Toronto Police Carding.  I said there was a 70% chance of such a ban.  This was definitely an overestimate; the status quo (of an extended temporary ban, in this case) is almost always the most likely outcome for this sort of question.
• There was no lethal terrorist attacks in Canada in 2015 (see my post Terrorism in Canada).  In January, I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably about right.
• There was no lethal Islamist Terrorism in the EU in 2015 after November 23rd.  I said there was a 25% chance of such an attack, which was probably too high.
• Salah Abdeslam, one of the perpetrators of the Paris attacks, has not been apprehended (see my post Salah Abdeslam Apprehension).  On November 27th, I said there was a 70% chance he would be apprehended by the end of the year, which was probably too high.

Year-End Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• There were no Senate Appointments before the new government was sworn in.  In July, I said there was a 30% chance of such appointments, which might have been too high,
• Trudeau didn't leave the leadership by the end of the year (see my post Trudeau Liberal Party Leader).  In September, I said there was a 15% chance of this happening.  This might have been a reasonable estimate; if the Liberals had done very badly in the election, Trudeau might well have left.
• Mulcair didn't leave the leadership by the end of the year either (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In September, I said there was a 20% chance that he'd leave.  Given that the NDP did very badly in the election, but Mulcair still didn't leave, that estimate might have been too high.
• The federal government has announced it plans to make Federal Electoral Changes.  In July, I said there was a 50% chance of such an announcement.  Most of the uncertainty in this question was uncertainty about who the government would be.

Year-End Post Mortem: Economics

I'm going to go back to the backlog of questions that resolved at the end of the year.  Today, I'll focus on the economics questions.

• The Canadian Dollar was at 72 cents US at the end of the year, which fits in my lowest category of less than 80 cents (see also Canadian Dollar v2).  In my original post in January 2015, I said there was a 25% chance of this low of a value, which I later increased to 50%.  II might have underestimated the variability in the Canadian dollar.
• The Canada Overnight Rate was 0.5% at the end of the year, which fitted into my category of 0.75% or lower (see also Canada Overnight Rate v2).  Before the January rate cut, I said there was a 15% chance of a rate that low, which I later increased to 70%.  Again, I might have initially underestimated the chance of a rate cut.
• The US Federal Funds Rate target range was 0.25% to 0.5% at the end of the year.  I said there was a 25% chance of a rate that low.  Again, I might have overestimated the probability of a significant rate increase.
• The Oil Price at the end of the year was in the $30 to $50 range.  I said that there was a 27% chance of a price in this range, and a 33% chance of a price less than $50.  This was not an obviously inaccurate prediction.
• The Ottawa Gas Price was 91.5 cents/L at the end of 2015, according to the Ontario Ministry of Energy.  I said there was a 25% chance of a price between 90 and 100 cents per litre, and a 45% chance of a price below 100 cents per litre.  Again, this prediction seems to have been reasonable.