Islamist Terrorism in the EU

Before the end of 2015, will there be another lethal Islamist terrorist attack in the EU?
Yes: 25%
(To count, the attack must result in the death of at least 3 people, not including the perpetrators)

There seems to be some fear of other terrorist attacks after the recent attack in Paris (see article here).  The statistical base rate of such attacks is rather low; there have been 3 such attacks in the last 2 years, corresponding to a 14% base rate estimate before the end of the year (see Wikipedia article here).  Longer time periods yield even lower estimates.  Still, I think the recent attack in Paris does increase the odds slightly over the base rate.