Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Questions Resolved in October: Other

  • US Congress Iran Deal has resolved for Do Nothing (the Democrats were able to block Congress from rejecting the deal).  I gave 25% odds of this happening.
  • The Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike did not end before the end of September.  I only gave 20% odds for the strike lasting that long.  I still think it is surprising that the strike has lasted as long as it has.
  • A Capital Taxi Agreement was reached in September.  I gave a 35% chance to an agreement being reached in September, and a 80% chance to an agreement being reached before the end of September.  Those odds seem reasonable, although (in combination with the last question), I might have been a bit too optimistic about how quickly an agreement could be reached.
  • The Bank of Canada Interest rate was left unchanged in October (see my post Canada Interest Rate October).  This was no surprise; I gave "no change" 80% odds.
  • The proposed Fission Merger was rejected by shareholders.  I gave 60% odds to this outcome, and may have been slightly under-confident.

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