Questions Resolved in October: International Elections

A lot of questions have resolved in October, mainly related to the federal election.  I'm going to devote this week to going through them, starting with international election questions.

• The Centre Party won the Finnish Election.  I said they had a 70% of winning, which seems about right.
• The Portugal Ahead coalition won the Portuguese Election (also see my second post Portuguese Election v2).  I originally said the Social Democratic Party (the largest party in the Portugal Ahead coalition) had a 29% chance of winning the most seats, which I later increased to 40% after the coalition formed.  The formation of a coalition is one of those awkward events that can increase the odds of a party that is well behind winning an election.
• The new Portuguese prime minister, Pedro Coelho, belongs to the Portugal Ahead party, which I said had a 15% chance of happening.  I expected the left-wing parties to form an a coalition government, which did not happen.
• The Swiss People's party won the Swiss Election.  I said they had a 60% chance of doing so.
• Jimmy Morales won the Guatemalan Election (also see my other posts Guatemalan Election v2 and Guatemalan Election v3). In my original post, I didn't list him as a candidate, although I did give "Someone Else" a 15% chance of winning.  My second post listed him and gave him a 30% chance of winning, while my third post (after the run-off) gave him a 65% chance of winning.  I might have underestimated Morales, but his victory does seem to be genuinely surprising.
• Alpha Condé won the Guinean Presidential Election.  I gave him a 75% chance of winning, which might have been too low given how popular he seemed to be.