Portuguese Election v2

Q170: What party will win the most seats in the next Portuguese election?
Portugal Ahead: 40%
Socialist Party: 55%
Someone Else: 5%
(If the Portugal Ahead alliance fragments, then the question will resolve for them if either of the fragments wins the most seats.  Similarly, a win for Portugal Ahead would count for a win for the Social Democrats for the purposes of my last post)

Since my last post about the Portuguese election, there have been some further developments.  The two main right-wing parties, the Social Democratic Party and the People's Party, have formed an alliance known as Portugal Ahead.  The Socialists now have about 37% of the vote, while Portugal Ahead has about 35% of the vote.  I am decreasing my odds for the Socialists, and increasing them for everyone else.