Conservative Interim Leader v2

Who will be the interim leader of the federal Conservative party?
Rob Nicholson: 40%
Diane Finley: 30%
Erin O'Toole: 15%
Candice Bergen: 5%
Someone Else: 10%

Since my last post, several MPs have put their names forward for interim leader of the Conservatives (see article here).  The most prominent contenders seem to be former cabinet ministers Rob Nicholson, Diane Finley, and Erin O'Toole, although Manitoba MP Candice Bergen has also entered the race.  Nicholson and Finley seem like the strongest candidates, although O'Toole is a possibility as well.  A late entrant seems possible, but unlikely.

Conservative Leader Removal

Will Conservative MPs vote to give themselves the power to remove the party leader?
Yes: 35%

According to the recently passed Reform Act (see articles here and here), Conservative MPs will get to vote about whether or not to give themselves the power to remove the party leader.  It is not clear to me how the vote is expected to go, although the outcome is presumably somewhat uncertain, given the Globe editorial.

Conservative Senators Voting

Will Conservative senators be allowed to vote for the interim leader?
Yes: 70%

There has been speculation about whether or not Conservative senators will be allowed to vote for Conservative interim leader (see articles here and here).  It seems that MPs will get to decide whether or not senators get a say, in keeping with the Reform Act.  The expectation seems to be that senators will be allowed to vote, although this seems somewhat uncertain.

Aboriginal Affairs Minister

Who will be the next Aboriginal Affairs Minister?
Jody Wilson-Raybould: 15%
Hunter Tootoo: 15%
Robert Falcon-Ouellette: 15%
Carolyn Bennett: 10%
Someone Else: 45%

According to this article, the favourites for Aboriginal Affairs Minister seem to be BC MP Jody Wilson-Raybould and Nunavut MP Hunter Tootoo.  Winnipeg MP Robert Falcon-Ouellette and former Aboriginal Affairs critic Carolyn Bennett also seem to be in the running, according to this article.  My sense is that Bennett is less likely to win than the others, as she is not aboriginal and represents a safe Liberal riding.

Agriculture Minister

Who will be the next Agriculture Minister?
Wayne Easter: 20%
Ralph Goodale: 10%
Mark Eyking: 5%
Someone Else: 65%

According to this article, there does not seem to be an obvious favourite for agriculture minister.  Wayne Easter is an experienced PEI MP who has served as Agriculture Critic and Parliamentary Secretary.  Ralph Goodale has been Agriculture Minister in the past, although he might be more likely in a more senior post.  Mark Eyking was the most recent agriculture critic, but he may be too obscure for this relatively senior post.

Environment Minister

Who will be the next Environment Minister?
Joyce Murray: 25%
Jody Wilson-Raybould: 15%
John McKay: 10%
Elizabeth May: 2%
Someone Else: 48%

According to this article, the top candidates for environment minister seem to be Joyce Murray and Jody Wilson-Raybould.  Joyce Murray seems to be the more experienced candidate, having served in as BC environment minister previously (she was also an unsuccessful leadership candidate).  John McKay was the Liberal Environment critic, although it does not seem likely that he would continue on as minister, given the newly enlarged size of the Liberal caucus.  There have been several petitions calling for Elizabeth May to become Environment Minister (see article here), but this seems extremely unlikely.

Industry Minister

Who will be the next Industry Minister?
Judy Sgro: 20%
Ralph Goodale: 15%
Chrystia Freeland: 10%
Bill Morneau: 10%
Someone Else: 45%

The favourite for Industry Minister is probably Judy Sgro, who was the Liberal Industry critic, and has served as Minister of Citizenship and Immigration.  The "runner-up" for Minister of Finance might get the Industry role, so I am recycling some of my guesses for Finance.

Next Parliamentary Session

When will the Parliament of Canada reconvene?
Before the end of November 2015: 40%
December 2015: 20%
January 2016: 25%
After January 2016: 15%

Justin Trudeau, the Prime minister-designate, has not yet indicated when parliament will reconvene.  In the elections since 1993, parliament has reconvened between 26 days (in 2011) and 112 days (in 1997) after the election, with an average of 70 days.  Recent years have generally seen parliament reconvene more quickly.  After the two most recent elections in October, parliament reconvened in January (in 1993) and in November (in 2008).

I think parliament is most likely to reconvene in either January or November, with November being slightly more likely.  The holidays make a session starting in December less likely.

Finance Minister v2

Who will be the next Finance Minister?
Ralph Goodale: 30%
Bill Morneau: 20%
Scott Brison: 10%
Chrystia Freeland: 10%
Someone Else: 30%

There has been more speculation about possible Finance Ministers since my previous post (see articles here and here).  Ralph Goodale seems to be the clear favourite to become the next Finance Minister.  Recently elected MP Bill Morneau seems to be a strong candidate, and Chrystia Freeland is sometimes mentioned.  John McCallum is another potential Finance Minster, although he seems like a less likely pick than some of the other candidates.

Justice Minister

Who will be the next Justice Minister?
Dominic Leblanc: 30%
Denis Paradis: 10%
Marco Mendicino: 10%
Bill Blair: 5%
Someone Else: 45%

Dominic Leblanc, former Liberal Justice critic and New Brunswick MP, seems to be the favourite for Justice Minister (see article here).  Bill Blair, former Toronto police chief, is also a contender, although he seems to lack the law background that usually goes with the post (see article here).  Marco Mendicino, who defeated Finance Minister Joe Oliver, has a law background, as does Quebec MP Denis Paradis (who also has extensive cabinet experience).

Liberal Defence Minister

Who will be the Liberal Defence Minister?
Andrew Leslie: 30%
Karen McCrimmon: 15%
Harjit Sajjan: 10%
Bill Blair: 5%
Someone Else: 40%

The front-runner for Liberal Defence Minister seems to be recently elected Orleans MP Andrew Leslie (see article here).  Kanata-Carleton MP Karen McCrimmon and Vancouver South MP Harjit Sajjan seem to both have some military experience (see here).  Bill Blair, the former Toronto police chief, is another possibility, although he would seem like a better fit in Public Safety.

Conservative Interim Leader

Who will be the interim leader of the federal Conservative party while the next permanent leader is chosen?
Rob Nicholson: 17%
Peter Van Loan: 17%
Tony Clement: 13%
Rona Ambrose: 13%
Someone Else: 40%

As a result of the federal election, Stephen Harper has resigned as Conservative Party leader, and asked for an interim leader to be chosen (see story here).  In this sort of situation, the interim leader is usually a senior figure within the party who is not seen as a likely permanent leadership candidate.  Rob Nicholson or Peter Van Loan seem to fit that bill nicely.  Tony Clement or Rona Ambrose are other possibilities.

Pontiac v2

Liberal: 65%
NDP: 25%
Conservative: 10%

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell v2

Liberal: 70%
Conservative: 30%

Gatineau v2

NDP: 85%
Liberal: 15%

Hull—Aylmer v2

NDP: 55%
Liberal: 45%

Carleton v2

Conservative: 85%
Liberal: 15%

Kanata-Carleton v2

Liberal: 72%
Conservative: 28%

Nepean v2

Liberal: 65%
Conservative: 35%

Orleans v2

Liberal: 87%
Conservative: 13%

Ottawa South v2

Liberal: 99%
Conservative: 1%

Ottawa-West Nepean v2

Liberal: 90%
Conservative: 10%

Ottawa-Vanier v2

Liberal: 97%
NDP: 2%
Conservative: 1%

Ottawa Centre v2

I'm going to do another round of Ottawa riding projections, given changes in the polls.  I'll start with Ottawa Centre.
NDP: 70%
Liberal: 30%

Timing of CBC Election Call

On October 19th, when will CBC announce which party they project to have won the federal election?
Before 23:00 EDT: 40%
Between 23:00 and 24:00 EDT: 40%
After 24:00 EDT: 20%
(The initial announcement is what matters for this question, even if it is latter rescinded.  CBC does not need to specify what type of government (e.g. minority or majority), just the winning party.)

The Liberals are projected to win the federal election tomorrow, by 140 seats to the Conservative's 120 (according to 308, see here).  The polls close at 21:30 EDT in Ontario, and at 22:00 EDT in BC.  It seems likely that enough results will come in for the CBC to project a winner an hour or so after the last poll closes.  However, if the race is very close, they might not project a winner until after midnight.

Conservative Polling Error

What will the difference be between the national Conservative vote total and the final poll average at threehundredeight.com?
Greater than 2%: 35%
Between 0% and 2%: 30%
Between -2% and 0%: 20%
Less than -2%: 15%
(A positive difference means that the Conservatives have outperformed the poll average.   The final poll average is the one that takes into account all polling done before election day, but does not take into account exit polling or actual returns.)

The vote total for the conservative party has been somewhat underestimated in some recent elections (the most notable being the recent UK election).  In the past 4 Canadian elections, the Conservative vote total has been underestimated by 2.5% (2011), 2.9% (2008). -0.8% (2006), and -0.9% (2004).  The errors in the 2008 and 2011 elections were much larger than the statistically calculated error.

Results in previous years suggest that the final poll average is likely to underestimate the Conservative vote total, possibly substantially.  However, this might not happen to the extent that it has happened in previous elections.

Federal Election Voter Turnnout

What will voter turnout in the next federal election be?
Less than 55%: 15%
Between 55 and 60%: 60%
Between 60 and 65%: 20%
Greater than 65%: 5%

Voter turnout in Canadian federal elections has been on a long-term decline (see Wikipedia article here).  Based on the trend in voter turnout since 1993, turnout this year should be about 57.2%, with a standard error of 2.5%.  This would suggest an estimate of 19%-68%-13%-0% for the four categories I have listed.

I think that the average estimate is a bit too low; voter turnout has not decreased as rapidly in recent times as in the past (turnout was relatively good in the 2011 election, at 61.4%).  Turnout at advanced polls has been very strong (see story here).  Also, the close nature of this election might cause higher turnout (although this is not at all clear from past elections).  I think a 58% estimate for voter turnout might be appropriate. which changes the odds to 12%-67%-21%-0%.  I am also increasing odds for the extreme turnouts (less than 55% and greater than 65%), which are likely underestimated with the normal model I am using.

Outremont

Which party will win in the riding of Outremont?
NDP: 65%
Liberal: 35%

Outremont is a central Montreal riding that is the current home riding of NDP leader Thomas Mulcair.  In the last election, the NDP won 56% of the vote, while the Liberals got 24%, and the other parties were well back.  However, based on the recent collapse in NDP support in Quebec, www.threehundredeight.com currently gives the NDP only a 56% chance of winning in Outremont.  I think that this estimate might be a bit low; now that Outremont is in jeopardy, the NDP will likely make more of an effort than they would have otherwise to get out the vote there.  The Liberal candidate, Rachel Bendayan, does not seem to be a "star candidate", although she is not as much of a lightweight as might be expected (see story here).

Catalan Independence Negotiations

By the end of 2016, will negotiations begin between Catalonia and Spain regarding Catalan independence?
Yes: 20%
(If Catalonia unilaterally secedes or declares independence, this question will close for yes.  Negotiations between Catalonia and Spain not regarding independence will not be sufficient to close this question)

Catalan separatists recently won regional elections that were widely viewed as a referendum on Catalan separatism (see story here).  The main separatist party, Together for Yes, had vowed before the election to immediately begin negotiations with the central Spanish government over independence.  In any case, they plan to unilaterally declare independence within 18 months.  The current Spanish government seems to be resolutely opposed to Catalan independence, and unwilling to enter into any negotiations.  The government's view might change after the national elections in December, although all of the major parties seem to be opposed to Catalan independence.

Given the opposition of the central government, it seems unlikely that any Catalan independence negotiations will actually take place.  The most likely outcome is that the Catalan government will back down in its demands, in exchange for some form of regional autonomy.

Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike v2

When will the taxi strike at the Ottawa Airport end?
Before November 15th: 30%
Between November 15th and the end of 2015: 35%
Not before the end of 2015: 35%

The airport taxi strike continues (see story here and my previous post here).  I am surprised that the strike has lasted as long as it has; I expected it to end fairly quickly.  There seems to have been few signs of progress, and the recent Citizen story does not give the impression that the strike will be resolved soon.  Having said that, some sort of resolution will probably be reached eventually; taxi drivers may be less willing to continue the protest through the winter months.  I think the strike is still more likely than not to resolve before the end of the year.

Fission Merger

Will shareholders of Fission Uranium approve the proposed merger with Denison Mines?
Yes: 40%

Shareholders of Fission Uranium, a uranium mining company, will vote on merging with Denison Mines on October 14th (see story here).  The Fission board seems to support the deal, but many shareholders seem to be negative.  My guess is that the deal is slightly more likely to be voted down than approved; the level of opposition among shareholders seems to be significant.

Libyan Unity Government

By the end of 2015, will a Libyan unity government be formed?
Yes: 20%

The UN has come up with a proposal for a Libyan national unity government (see story here).  Libya has suffered ongoing instability since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, and the internationally recognized government has lost control of the western part of the country (including the capital, Tripoli) to the Libya Dawn militia alliance.  The UN proposal seems to have been dismissed by both sides in the conflict.  It seems rather unlikely that a unity government will be formed as a result of it, or through any other means, in the remainder of 2015.

Hydro One IPO Valuation

What will be the implied valuation of Hydro One from its IPO?
Less than $11.31 billion: 25%
Between $11.31 billion and $11.91 billion: 25%
Between $11.91 billion and $12.5 billion: 25%
More than $12.5 billion: 25%
(The implied valuation is the amount of money raised divided by the proportion of Hydro One sold. If the Hydro One IPO does not take place before the end of 2016, this question will be cancelled.)

The Hydro One IPO is scheduled for this November (see stories here and here).  Up to 15% of the company is to be sold for between $1.54 billion and $1.7 billion, valuing the company as a whole at $11.31 billion to $12.5 billion.  The implied valuation seems to have decreased substantially from previous estimates of $13.5 billion to $15 billion in April.

I think the current estimated valuation range may well be off in either direction.  It may depend on how well the Canadian market does in the lead-up to the IPO.  My guess would be that the valuation would tend to be a bit optimistic.  However, the current quoted prices probably don't fully take into account how well the market has done in the past week or so, so might tend to be pessimistic for that reason.  I'm going to guess that those two effects roughly wash out, so the estimated valuations are accurate.

TPP Canadian Ratification

By the end of June 2016, will the Canadian Parliament ratify the Trans-Pacific Partnership?
Yes: 80%
(The deal merely needs to be passed in the House of Commons for this question to close)

Negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership recently concluded successfully.  The deal now needs to be ratified by parliament (see article here).  The Conservatives support the deal, the Liberals are supportive but somewhat non-committal, and the NDP are opposed to the deal (see article here).

The Liberals will very likely support the deal when it comes for a vote.  Given that the Conservatives or Liberals are very likely to form the next government, with the two parties together holding a majority of seats, the TPP deal should pass easily.  The largest uncertainty is probably timing; the deal might not be ready for ratification early enough for this question.  ipredict says that the deal has an 80% chance of being ratified in the US before the end of June 2016. so it should also be ready in Canada at that time.

Canadian Oil Sands Acquisition

Before the end of 2016, will Canadian Oil Sands Ltd. be acquired?
Yes, by Suncor: 20%
Yes, by Exxon or Imperial Oil: 15%
Yes, by some other company: 15%
No: 50%
(The deal must be announced by the end of 2016, and close by the end of June 2017)

Suncor recently launched a hostile takeover bid for Canadian Oil Sands Ltd (see articles here and here).  The Canadian Oil Sands board has rejected the bid, and introduced a "poison pill" clause to make such bids less attractive without the board's consent.  There seems to be speculation that Suncor could come back with a more attractive bid, or that another company, such as Exxon, could bid for Canadian Oil Sands.

I think that it is about as likely as not that Canadian Oil Sands will be acquired by the end of 2016.  If it is acquired, the most likely buyer is Suncor, given the interest they have already shown.  Exxon is another likely buyer, and some other buyer is also possible.

Guinean Presidential Election

Who will win the Guinean presidential election?
Alpha Condé: 75%
Cellou Dalein Diallo: 20%
Someone Else: 5%

The African nation of Guinea will be holding presidential elections on October 11th (see article here).  The incumbent president, Alpha Condé, seems to be the favourite.  The campaign seems to have been marred by violence and accusations of irregularities.  Incumbency is always a large advantage in elections of this type.

Next Federal Election Date

Before the end of 2016, will there be another federal election?
Yes: 20%

The government formed after the current federal election may well be a somewhat unstable minority government, especially if the Conservatives return to power.  It is possible that there could be another federal election if the newly formed government falls.  I think that that the new government will probably last at least through the end of 2016. Joe Clark's 1979 government was the last one to last less than a year; recent Conservative minorities have managed to stay in power for longer than that.

Kunduz Control

By the end of 2015, will the government of Afghanistan control the city of Kunduz?
Yes: 60%
(This question will close for "No" if the government does not control a substantial part of the city, even if the government controls most of the city)

The Afghan city of Kunduz is currently being fought over between the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban (see Wikipedia article here and news story here)..  After the recent capture of the city by the Taliban, control seems to have gone back and forth between the Taliban and the government.  The government seems to be making a substantial effort to recapture the city.  I think that they will succeed in doing so by the end of 2015.

Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada v2

By the end of October 2015, will Canada successfully conclude negotiations on the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP)?
Yes: 45%
(An "agreement-in-principle" counts)

TPP negotiations seem to be currently in the final stage, with a possible deal expected shortly (see story here).  There still seems to be substantial uncertainty over whether a deal will actually be reached; many substantial issues still seem to be unresolved.  I think that a deal is about as likely to be reached as not; the news stories convey the sense of an imminent deal, but there don't seem to be many insiders saying that a deal is inevitable.

Guatemalan Election v3

Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Jimmy Morales: 65%
Sandra Torres: 35%

The first round of the Guatemalan Presidential Election resulted in Morales in first place with 24% of the vote, and Torres in second place with about 20% of the vote (Baldizón was just behind Torres).  Morales and Torres will face each other in a run-off election, to be held on October 25th.  Given the small lead for Morales in the first round, he seems more likely to win the run-off then Torres.  Also, Baldizón supporters are probably more likely to support Morales (who is on the right side of the political spectrum, like Baldizón), then Torres (who is on the left side of the political spectrum).

Questions Resolved in September: Part 2

• Next Greek Election Date has resolved for "Yes", because of the legislative Greek Election held in September.  I said that there was a 65% chance of another election in 2015.
• Simcoe North By-election Result has resolved for "Patrick Brown", whom I said had a 90% chance of winning.  This estimate might have been too low, given how good of a position Brown was in.
• September Greek Election has resolved for "SYRIZA", whom I said had a 65% chance of winning.  I think these odds were about right, given the somewhat inconsistent polling before the election
• Trudeau Munk Debate has resolved for "Yes", because Justin Trudeau ultimately decided to attend the Munk Debate.  I said this had a 80% chance of happening.
• Burkina Faso Coup has resolved for "Yes", as the coup leaders have surrendered.  This question had almost resolved by the time I posted it, so my 85% for estimate for "Yes" might have been too low.

Questions Resolved in September: Part 1

• Mohamed Fahmy Release has resolved for "Between April 1st and December 31,2015", which I said had a 50% chance of happening, which seems very reasonable.
• Green Leader TV Debate has resolved for "Yes", as Elizabeth May participated in the Maclean's debate in August.  I said this had a 90% chance of happening, which might have been too high, since the English consortium debate she looked likely to be invited to did not ultimately take place.
• Guatemalan President has resolved for "No".  Otto Perez Molina left office on September 3rd, which was just after the September 1st cutoff date for this question, which counts as a "No".  I said that Molina had a 85% chance of staying in office until September 1st, which was too high given how close this question was to resolving to "yes".
• Baiji Oil Complex Capture has resolved for "Yes".  Current news stories (see example here) talk about Iraqi forces trying to recapture Baiji, which suggests that the IS captured it.  The capture seems to have taken place around the time I originally posted the question; a Guardian story from May 23 suggests that the IS had captured the refinery at that time.  I said that the IS had a 50% chance of capturing the refinery, which might have been too low. 
• Canada Interest Rate September has resolved for "Unchanged Rate" which I said had a 85% chance of happening.  That number seems to be about right.