What will be the implied valuation of Hydro One from its IPO?
Less than $11.31 billion: 25%
Between $11.31 billion and $11.91 billion: 25%
Between $11.91 billion and $12.5 billion: 25%
More than $12.5 billion: 25%
(The implied valuation is the amount of money raised divided by the proportion of Hydro One sold. If the Hydro One IPO does not take place before the end of 2016, this question will be cancelled.)
The Hydro One IPO is scheduled for this November (see stories here and here). Up to 15% of the company is to be sold for between $1.54 billion and $1.7 billion, valuing the company as a whole at $11.31 billion to $12.5 billion. The implied valuation seems to have decreased substantially from previous estimates of $13.5 billion to $15 billion in April.
I think the current estimated valuation range may well be off in either direction. It may depend on how well the Canadian market does in the lead-up to the IPO. My guess would be that the valuation would tend to be a bit optimistic. However, the current quoted prices probably don't fully take into account how well the market has done in the past week or so, so might tend to be pessimistic for that reason. I'm going to guess that those two effects roughly wash out, so the estimated valuations are accurate.
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