Post-Mortem: International Politics

• The Spanish election held last December did not lead to the formation of a stable government.  Thus, I have decided to void my Spanish PM and Spanish PM v2 questions.  These seemed like reasonable questions at the time, but they unfortunately assumed that a stable government would be formed as a result of the December election.
• The Austrian Presidential Election resulted in the election of Alexander Van der Bellen.  I said he had a 35% chance of winning, which was the highest I gave any candidate.  I might have been under confident for this question, although the final result was fairly close.
• The Dominican Republic Election was won by Danilo Medina, whom I said had a 77% chance of winning.
• The Peruvian Election was won by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.  I said he had a 10% chance of winning, but I gave the same percentage chance to two other candidates.  I think this was a fairly reasonable prediction.

Canada Post Strike v2

Before the end of 2016, will there be a Canada Post strike or lockout involving CUPW?
Yes: 55%

Since my last post, Canada Post has given notice that it plans to lock out workers (see article here).  I am increasing my odds of a strike or lockout accordingly.

Post-Mortem: Miscellaneous

• The City of Ottawa has asked the province for permission to use photo radar (see my post Photo Radar Ottawa).  In March, I said there was only a 30% chance that this would happen, which I think might have been a reasonable estimate, given the opposition to the idea at the time.
• Construction has started on the Mooney's Bay Playground.  I said there was an 85% chance that this would happen in 2016, which was a good estimate.
• The City of Toronto has passed a taxi reform bylaw (see my post Toronto Taxi Reform).  In April, I said there was a 30% chance that this would happen, which might have been a slight underestimate.
• The M3MSat Launch has taken place.  Last July, I said there was a 70% chance it would be launched before the end of 2016.
• Certain New Brunswick Liquor Limits were found to be unconstitutional.  I said there was a 20% chance that this would happen, which might have been too low.

Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• A federal law regulating assisted suicide has been passed, slightly after the Supreme Court extended deadline.  In February 2015, I said there was only a 20% chance that a law would not be passed before the existing law was struck down (in my post Assisted Suicide Law).  This may have been a bit too low.  In November 2015 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v2) , I said there was a 50% chance that the February 2016 deadline would be extended, as it was.  This might have been a slightly under-confident estimate.  In February 2016 (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v3), I said there was a 25% chance that the existing law would expire, which again might have been too low of an estimate.  Finally, this June (in my post Assisted Suicide Law v4). I said there was a 40% chance a new assisted suicide law would be passed by the end of June.  Overall, I may have been too confident that a law would be passed by the deadline, but not confident enough that a law would be eventually passed.
• The federal government has created an Electoral Reform Committee.  I said there was a 45% chance that such a committee would be created by the end of June,
• A CPP Expansion Agreement has been reached (also see my post CPP Expansion Agreement v2).  Last December, I said there was a 25% chance of such an agreement being reached, which I later increased to 50%.  Both estimates may have been too low.