Thursday 7 July 2016

Post-Mortem: International Politics


  • The Spanish election held last December did not lead to the formation of a stable government.  Thus, I have decided to void my Spanish PM and Spanish PM v2 questions.  These seemed like reasonable questions at the time, but they unfortunately assumed that a stable government would be formed as a result of the December election.
  • The Austrian Presidential Election resulted in the election of Alexander Van der Bellen.  I said he had a 35% chance of winning, which was the highest I gave any candidate.  I might have been under confident for this question, although the final result was fairly close.
  • The Dominican Republic Election was won by Danilo Medina, whom I said had a 77% chance of winning.
  • The Peruvian Election was won by Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.  I said he had a 10% chance of winning, but I gave the same percentage chance to two other candidates.  I think this was a fairly reasonable prediction.

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