Who will win the next Peruvian presidential election?
Keiko Fujimori: 60%
Julio Guzmán: 10%
Pedro Pablo Kuczynski (PPK): 10%
César Acuña: 10%
Someone Else: 10%
The first round of the Peruvian election is scheduled for April (with a second round in June). The most recent poll gives Fujimori about 39% of the vote, Guzmán about 20%, PPK about 13%, and Acuña about 9% (see Wikipedia article here). Fujimori is the clear favorite; she only narrowly lost the last election, and has a huge lead in the polls. Guzmán has rapidly climbed in the polls recently, so I think that he is less likely to win than his standing in the polls suggests. PPK and Acuña seem to be the main challengers; both could plausibly win if they gain a lot in the polls. Also, one of the minor candidates could gain enough ground to win; I do not know enough about Peruvian politics to rule this out.
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