Year-End Post Mortem: Economics

I'm going to go back to the backlog of questions that resolved at the end of the year.  Today, I'll focus on the economics questions.

• The Canadian Dollar was at 72 cents US at the end of the year, which fits in my lowest category of less than 80 cents (see also Canadian Dollar v2).  In my original post in January 2015, I said there was a 25% chance of this low of a value, which I later increased to 50%.  II might have underestimated the variability in the Canadian dollar.
• The Canada Overnight Rate was 0.5% at the end of the year, which fitted into my category of 0.75% or lower (see also Canada Overnight Rate v2).  Before the January rate cut, I said there was a 15% chance of a rate that low, which I later increased to 70%.  Again, I might have initially underestimated the chance of a rate cut.
• The US Federal Funds Rate target range was 0.25% to 0.5% at the end of the year.  I said there was a 25% chance of a rate that low.  Again, I might have overestimated the probability of a significant rate increase.
• The Oil Price at the end of the year was in the $30 to $50 range.  I said that there was a 27% chance of a price in this range, and a 33% chance of a price less than $50.  This was not an obviously inaccurate prediction.
• The Ottawa Gas Price was 91.5 cents/L at the end of 2015, according to the Ontario Ministry of Energy.  I said there was a 25% chance of a price between 90 and 100 cents per litre, and a 45% chance of a price below 100 cents per litre.  Again, this prediction seems to have been reasonable.