Year-End Post Mortem: Federal Politics

• There were no Senate Appointments before the new government was sworn in.  In July, I said there was a 30% chance of such appointments, which might have been too high,
• Trudeau didn't leave the leadership by the end of the year (see my post Trudeau Liberal Party Leader).  In September, I said there was a 15% chance of this happening.  This might have been a reasonable estimate; if the Liberals had done very badly in the election, Trudeau might well have left.
• Mulcair didn't leave the leadership by the end of the year either (see my post Mulcair NDP Leader).  In September, I said there was a 20% chance that he'd leave.  Given that the NDP did very badly in the election, but Mulcair still didn't leave, that estimate might have been too high.
• The federal government has announced it plans to make Federal Electoral Changes.  In July, I said there was a 50% chance of such an announcement.  Most of the uncertainty in this question was uncertainty about who the government would be.