Q59: Will an official announcement be made by the Toronto Police regarding the purpose of the tunnel at York University before the end of 2015?
Yes, suggesting that the tunnel had a criminal or terrorist purpose: 10%
Yes, suggesting that the tunnel had some other purpose: 15%
No announcement will be made: 75%
(In order for this question to resolve, the police need to announce that they have definite evidence that the tunnel either does or does not have a criminal or terrorist purpose. There does not have to be absolute certainty. The announcement does not have to specify what the precise purpose was, but it must be known to the police)
The Toronto Police recently announced the existence of a mysterious tunnel in a wooded area near York University. There has been some speculation about why the tunnel was built. The police have announced that they do not think that the tunnel was meant for any sort of criminal purpose, but this has not been ruled out.
I think that no explanation will be made for the tunnel. Whoever constructed it could have already come forward, and have not done so. The police seem to have exhausted all leads, and there is no particular reason to expect anything further to happen.
If the purpose of the tunnel is discovered, it is unlikely to be a criminal or terrorist purpose. Although a criminal purpose would explain why the builders have not come forward, it seems less likely to begin with. Also, a criminal builder is less likely to come forward in the future.
Saturday 28 February 2015
Friday 27 February 2015
Single Sports Betting
Q58: Will a law be passed legalizing single sports betting before the next federal election?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
("passed" here means "receives royal assent")
Currently, bets on sports events in Canada must be on at least two games at a time; the Criminal Code prohibits betting on a single event. A bill to allow betting on a single event was passed by the House of Commons in 2012 with all-party support. However, the bill has been stalled in the Senate ever since. The Ontario Minister of Finance supports the bill, but professional sports leagues are opposed.
I do not think the current bill will be passed by the Senate before the election; it has been languishing there since 2012. There are apparently enough supporters for the vote to pass on third reading, but "no vote has been scheduled". It is unusual for bills passed by the House to not be passed by the Senate, but, according to Sen. George Baker, “there is a good chance this will be the first time in Canadian history that a bill passed unanimously in the House of Commons could be defeated in the Senate.”
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
("passed" here means "receives royal assent")
Currently, bets on sports events in Canada must be on at least two games at a time; the Criminal Code prohibits betting on a single event. A bill to allow betting on a single event was passed by the House of Commons in 2012 with all-party support. However, the bill has been stalled in the Senate ever since. The Ontario Minister of Finance supports the bill, but professional sports leagues are opposed.
I do not think the current bill will be passed by the Senate before the election; it has been languishing there since 2012. There are apparently enough supporters for the vote to pass on third reading, but "no vote has been scheduled". It is unusual for bills passed by the House to not be passed by the Senate, but, according to Sen. George Baker, “there is a good chance this will be the first time in Canadian history that a bill passed unanimously in the House of Commons could be defeated in the Senate.”
Thursday 26 February 2015
Supreme Court Human Smuggling
Q57: Will the Supreme Court of Canada overturn the current federal law on human smuggling?
Yes: 65%
No: 35%
(This question will be resolved as "yes" if (any part of) section 117 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act is ruled unconstitutional)
The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments in five cases regarding human smuggling, mainly from Sri Lanka. The current law criminalizes helping an undocumented person enter Canada. This provision is the largest issue in the cases. At previous trials, the BC Supreme Court overturned the provision, but the BC Court of Appeal disagreed.
Based on the result in the assisted suicide case, I think that the Supreme Court will also overturn the current human smuggling law. That case had a similar judicial history, with the BC Supreme Court overturning the law and the BC Court of Appeal disagreeing.
Yes: 65%
No: 35%
(This question will be resolved as "yes" if (any part of) section 117 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act is ruled unconstitutional)
The Supreme Court is currently hearing arguments in five cases regarding human smuggling, mainly from Sri Lanka. The current law criminalizes helping an undocumented person enter Canada. This provision is the largest issue in the cases. At previous trials, the BC Supreme Court overturned the provision, but the BC Court of Appeal disagreed.
Based on the result in the assisted suicide case, I think that the Supreme Court will also overturn the current human smuggling law. That case had a similar judicial history, with the BC Supreme Court overturning the law and the BC Court of Appeal disagreeing.
Wednesday 25 February 2015
Translink Referendum
Q56: Will the plebiscite requesting a sales tax in Metro Vancouver to pay for transit improvements succeed?
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
A mail-in plebiscite will be held from March to May in Metro Vancouver regarding a transit-directed sales tax (see here). This is often called the "Translink Referendum". According to the most recent poll, 53% of voters are opposed, while 38% of voters the sales tax.
I think that the sales tax will probably not pass, given the poll results. I am less confident of this result because it seems there is only one poll. Also, mail-in plebiscites might be harder to predict, and their results less well-captured by polls.
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
A mail-in plebiscite will be held from March to May in Metro Vancouver regarding a transit-directed sales tax (see here). This is often called the "Translink Referendum". According to the most recent poll, 53% of voters are opposed, while 38% of voters the sales tax.
I think that the sales tax will probably not pass, given the poll results. I am less confident of this result because it seems there is only one poll. Also, mail-in plebiscites might be harder to predict, and their results less well-captured by polls.
Tuesday 24 February 2015
Ceres Ocean
Q55: Will a liquid ocean be detected on the dwarf planet Ceres by the Dawn spacecraft?
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(This question will be resolved by the resolution of SciCast Question 1148)
There has been speculation that a subsurface liquid ocean may exist on the dwarf planet Ceres. Ceres is thought to have a high ice content, and water vapour emission from it was detected recently. The NASA Dawn spacecraft will soon be in orbit around Ceres, and may be able to answer this question.
The biggest problem with this question may be one of detection; even if Ceres does have a liquid water ocean, Dawn may not be able to confirm its existence. Also, unlike Europa (which almost certainly does have a liquid ocean), Ceres does not have tidal heating. Still, the possibility of a liquid ocean seems real.
Yes: 25%
No: 75%
(This question will be resolved by the resolution of SciCast Question 1148)
There has been speculation that a subsurface liquid ocean may exist on the dwarf planet Ceres. Ceres is thought to have a high ice content, and water vapour emission from it was detected recently. The NASA Dawn spacecraft will soon be in orbit around Ceres, and may be able to answer this question.
The biggest problem with this question may be one of detection; even if Ceres does have a liquid water ocean, Dawn may not be able to confirm its existence. Also, unlike Europa (which almost certainly does have a liquid ocean), Ceres does not have tidal heating. Still, the possibility of a liquid ocean seems real.
Monday 23 February 2015
Census Jail Time
Q54: Will a law be passed eliminating jail time as a punishment for not filling out the Statistics Canada Census, by the end of 2015?
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
Conservative MP Joe Preston has introduced a private member's bill to end jail time for not filling out Statistics Canada surveys (the penalty of jail time is largely theoretical, when applied to the Census). The bill seems to have support from some Conservative MPs. It might also get support from one or both of the opposition parties.
The main problem with the bill is probably timing; it might not have enough time to be passed before the current Parliament ends. Most private member's bills do not succeed.
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
Conservative MP Joe Preston has introduced a private member's bill to end jail time for not filling out Statistics Canada surveys (the penalty of jail time is largely theoretical, when applied to the Census). The bill seems to have support from some Conservative MPs. It might also get support from one or both of the opposition parties.
The main problem with the bill is probably timing; it might not have enough time to be passed before the current Parliament ends. Most private member's bills do not succeed.
Sunday 22 February 2015
OPP October 22 Report Release
Q53: Will the report being prepared by the OPP on the October 22 attack be released to the public by the end of 2015?
Yes: 27%
No: 73%
(An unofficial release will count. A partial or censored release would also count, as long as a substantial part of the report is released)
The OPP is currently investigating the response to the October 22 attacks. They plan to release a report to the RCMP, The government has said that the report will not be released to the public; the Liberals say that it should be.
I do not think this report will be released, even if the Liberals win the election. I estimate there is a 20% chance of it being released if the Conservatives win the election, and a 30% chance if the Liberals (or NDP) win. Since the Conservatives have a 35% chance of winning, I get a 27% chance of the report being released.
Yes: 27%
No: 73%
(An unofficial release will count. A partial or censored release would also count, as long as a substantial part of the report is released)
The OPP is currently investigating the response to the October 22 attacks. They plan to release a report to the RCMP, The government has said that the report will not be released to the public; the Liberals say that it should be.
I do not think this report will be released, even if the Liberals win the election. I estimate there is a 20% chance of it being released if the Conservatives win the election, and a 30% chance if the Liberals (or NDP) win. Since the Conservatives have a 35% chance of winning, I get a 27% chance of the report being released.
Saturday 21 February 2015
Debaltseve Control
Q52: By the end of 2015, who will control Debaltseve?
Ukraine: 20%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 77%
Someone else: 3%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control. "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)
The Ukrainian city of Debaltseve was recently captured by rebel forces, after intense fighting (see the Wikipedia article here). The city originally came under rebel control in April 2014, but Ukrainian troops re-captured it in late July 2014.
Like the Donetsk Airport, I think that Debaltseve will remain in rebel hands through the end of 2015. It is probably slightly less likely to be captured than the Donetsk airport, as it is in a more favourable geographic position (see the map here) and time has passed since I made that prediction.
Ukraine: 20%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 77%
Someone else: 3%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control. "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)
The Ukrainian city of Debaltseve was recently captured by rebel forces, after intense fighting (see the Wikipedia article here). The city originally came under rebel control in April 2014, but Ukrainian troops re-captured it in late July 2014.
Like the Donetsk Airport, I think that Debaltseve will remain in rebel hands through the end of 2015. It is probably slightly less likely to be captured than the Donetsk airport, as it is in a more favourable geographic position (see the map here) and time has passed since I made that prediction.
Friday 20 February 2015
Damascus control
Q51: By the end of 2015, who will control Damascus, Syria?
The (current) Syrian Government: 90%
The Islamic State: 2%
Someone Else: 8%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)
The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011 between the Syrian government and various opposition groups, the most prominent being Islamic State. The Syrian government currently controls about half of the country, mostly in the west of the country, with Islamic State controlling much of the east of the country and various other opposition groups controlling pockets in the west of the country (see map here).
There have been attempts by opposition groups to capture Damascus before, most notably in 2012 in the Battle of Damascus. However, I think that the government will almost certainly remain in control of Damascus for the rest of the year, as they have for the past 4 years. It is very unlikely that Islamic State will capture it, given that the territories they control are a long way away. A diplomatic solution to the war (with the government losing control of Damascus) seems unlikely, but is possible.
The (current) Syrian Government: 90%
The Islamic State: 2%
Someone Else: 8%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)
The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011 between the Syrian government and various opposition groups, the most prominent being Islamic State. The Syrian government currently controls about half of the country, mostly in the west of the country, with Islamic State controlling much of the east of the country and various other opposition groups controlling pockets in the west of the country (see map here).
There have been attempts by opposition groups to capture Damascus before, most notably in 2012 in the Battle of Damascus. However, I think that the government will almost certainly remain in control of Damascus for the rest of the year, as they have for the past 4 years. It is very unlikely that Islamic State will capture it, given that the territories they control are a long way away. A diplomatic solution to the war (with the government losing control of Damascus) seems unlikely, but is possible.
Thursday 19 February 2015
Kobani Control
Q50: By the end of 2015, who will control Kobani, Syria?
Kurdish Forces: 65%
The Islamic State: 15%
The (current) Syrian Government: 5%
Someone Else: 15%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)
Kurdish forces recently captured the Syrian town of Kobani from the Islamic State, after a four-month battle. The surrounding territory is still controlled by the Islamic State (see this map).
I think the Kurds will still be in control of Kobani by year's end. The Islamic State might be able to recapture it. The current Syrian government could also recapture it (although I think this is somewhat unlikely). It is also possible that a new Syrian government will be formed and take it over (by consent of the current Kurdish forces, probably).
Kurdish Forces: 65%
The Islamic State: 15%
The (current) Syrian Government: 5%
Someone Else: 15%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)
Kurdish forces recently captured the Syrian town of Kobani from the Islamic State, after a four-month battle. The surrounding territory is still controlled by the Islamic State (see this map).
I think the Kurds will still be in control of Kobani by year's end. The Islamic State might be able to recapture it. The current Syrian government could also recapture it (although I think this is somewhat unlikely). It is also possible that a new Syrian government will be formed and take it over (by consent of the current Kurdish forces, probably).
Wednesday 18 February 2015
Assisted Suicide Law
Q49: When will a law be passed regulating assisted suicide?
Before the next election: 30%
After the next election, but before the existing law is struck down: 50%
Not before the existing law is struck down: 20%
The Supreme Court of Canada recently struck down the ban on assisted suicide. The court gave Parliament 12 months to create a new law before the current law is struck down. The government does not seem to be moving quickly on the issue, and the conventional wisdom seems to be that a law will not be proposed before the next election. There is also some worry that no law will be drafted at all, and assisted suicide will be left unregulated (like abortion).
I think a new law before the next election is somewhat likely, but a law after the election is the most likely outcome. However, there might not be enough time after the election to pass a new law. The Conservatives and Liberals are about equally likely to pass a law after the election.
Before the next election: 30%
After the next election, but before the existing law is struck down: 50%
Not before the existing law is struck down: 20%
The Supreme Court of Canada recently struck down the ban on assisted suicide. The court gave Parliament 12 months to create a new law before the current law is struck down. The government does not seem to be moving quickly on the issue, and the conventional wisdom seems to be that a law will not be proposed before the next election. There is also some worry that no law will be drafted at all, and assisted suicide will be left unregulated (like abortion).
I think a new law before the next election is somewhat likely, but a law after the election is the most likely outcome. However, there might not be enough time after the election to pass a new law. The Conservatives and Liberals are about equally likely to pass a law after the election.
Tuesday 17 February 2015
Canada Overnight Rate v2
Q48: What will the Bank of Canada target for the overnight rate be at the end of 2015?
0.75% or lower: 70%
1.00%: 10%
1.25%: 10%
1.5%: 5%
1.75% or higher: 5%
In Q9, I predicted the Bank of Canada target rate for the end of 2015. Since then, the bank has decreased the target rate to 0.75%, so I thought I would look at this question again. All of the banks now seem to think the target rate will fall to 0.5% by the end of the year, before increasing in 2016-2017. A end-of-year rate of 0.75% or less certainly seems to be the most likely outcome. However, the bank might end up increasing rates, especially if oil prices increase (or even if they don't). Still, a rate of 1.5% or higher seems quite unlikely.
0.75% or lower: 70%
1.00%: 10%
1.25%: 10%
1.5%: 5%
1.75% or higher: 5%
In Q9, I predicted the Bank of Canada target rate for the end of 2015. Since then, the bank has decreased the target rate to 0.75%, so I thought I would look at this question again. All of the banks now seem to think the target rate will fall to 0.5% by the end of the year, before increasing in 2016-2017. A end-of-year rate of 0.75% or less certainly seems to be the most likely outcome. However, the bank might end up increasing rates, especially if oil prices increase (or even if they don't). Still, a rate of 1.5% or higher seems quite unlikely.
Monday 16 February 2015
Oil Price
Q47: What will the WTI price of Crude Oil be at the end of 2015 (in USD/bbl)?
Below $30: 6%
Between $30 and $50: 27%
Between $50 and $70: 28%
Between $70 and $90: 19%
Above $90: 20%
(The price at the end of the day on December 31, 2015 on the Bloomberg site will be used, for the contract closest to expiry at that time)
Oil prices have fallen considerably in the past year, due to increasing production from US shale fields, the OPEC decision not to cut production, and slowing demand. The current price is approximately $52.50, and futures markets suggest a price of $61 or so by the end of the year (or a fair increase). The current annual volatility is approximately 60%, based on the US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. I use a lower annual volatility of 50%, because I think oil prices will become less volatile over the year. Based on the data above, and a log normal distribution of prices (see details here), I derived the numbers above.
,
Below $30: 6%
Between $30 and $50: 27%
Between $50 and $70: 28%
Between $70 and $90: 19%
Above $90: 20%
(The price at the end of the day on December 31, 2015 on the Bloomberg site will be used, for the contract closest to expiry at that time)
Oil prices have fallen considerably in the past year, due to increasing production from US shale fields, the OPEC decision not to cut production, and slowing demand. The current price is approximately $52.50, and futures markets suggest a price of $61 or so by the end of the year (or a fair increase). The current annual volatility is approximately 60%, based on the US EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook. I use a lower annual volatility of 50%, because I think oil prices will become less volatile over the year. Based on the data above, and a log normal distribution of prices (see details here), I derived the numbers above.
,
Sunday 15 February 2015
Future Shop/Best Buy Ottawa
Q46: Will it be announced in 2015 that any of the Future Shop or Best Buy locations in Ottawa will close or change ownership (beyond the Gloucester one)?
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
(A change in ownership of all of the Future Shop and Best Buy stores together will not count for this question. A closure of Best Buy Mobile would count)
Future Shop and Best Buy (which are under the same ownership) have recently faced significant challenges due to competition from online retailers. Future Shop recently closed its Gloucester location (as well as locations in Kingston and Regina). 15 Best Buy/ Future Shop locations closed in January 2013. There are currently around 200 Best Buy/Future Shop stores in Canada. In Ottawa, there are 3 Best Buy locations, 2 Best Buy Mobile locations, and 5 Future Shop locations.
I do not think any more stores will close in 2015; store closings seem to be concentrated in the past two years have been concentrated at the end of January (probably due to Christmas and Boxing Day). Also, the closure of one store should help the profitability of nearby stores.
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
(A change in ownership of all of the Future Shop and Best Buy stores together will not count for this question. A closure of Best Buy Mobile would count)
Future Shop and Best Buy (which are under the same ownership) have recently faced significant challenges due to competition from online retailers. Future Shop recently closed its Gloucester location (as well as locations in Kingston and Regina). 15 Best Buy/ Future Shop locations closed in January 2013. There are currently around 200 Best Buy/Future Shop stores in Canada. In Ottawa, there are 3 Best Buy locations, 2 Best Buy Mobile locations, and 5 Future Shop locations.
I do not think any more stores will close in 2015; store closings seem to be concentrated in the past two years have been concentrated at the end of January (probably due to Christmas and Boxing Day). Also, the closure of one store should help the profitability of nearby stores.
Saturday 14 February 2015
Mohamed Fahmy Release
Q45: When will Mohamed Fahmy return to Canada?
Before April 1st: 20%
Between April 1st and December 31,2015: 50%
Not Before December 31, 2015: 30%
(Only a return to Canada will resolve this question; nothing else will do so.)
Mohamed Fahmy, an Egyptian-Canadian journalist, has been in jail in Egypt, facing terrorism charges due to dubious alleged connections to the Muslim Brotherhood. He was originally arrested in December 2013, was convicted in a trial that was later thrown out in 2014, and is now facing a new trial . He was recently released on bail. An Australian journalist, Peter Greste, who was arrested at the same time, was released on February 1st.
I do not think that Fahmy will be released before the retrial is concluded; this article (which admittedly did not anticipate the bail) comes to that conclusion as well. However, I think there is a good chance that Fahmy will be released at the conclusion of the retrial, either due to a acquittal or a light sentence. The release of Peter Greste and comments by el-Sisi suggest that Egypt would like this controversy to end. It is possible that Fahmy will be detained beyond the end of the year.
Before April 1st: 20%
Between April 1st and December 31,2015: 50%
Not Before December 31, 2015: 30%
(Only a return to Canada will resolve this question; nothing else will do so.)
Mohamed Fahmy, an Egyptian-Canadian journalist, has been in jail in Egypt, facing terrorism charges due to dubious alleged connections to the Muslim Brotherhood. He was originally arrested in December 2013, was convicted in a trial that was later thrown out in 2014, and is now facing a new trial . He was recently released on bail. An Australian journalist, Peter Greste, who was arrested at the same time, was released on February 1st.
I do not think that Fahmy will be released before the retrial is concluded; this article (which admittedly did not anticipate the bail) comes to that conclusion as well. However, I think there is a good chance that Fahmy will be released at the conclusion of the retrial, either due to a acquittal or a light sentence. The release of Peter Greste and comments by el-Sisi suggest that Egypt would like this controversy to end. It is possible that Fahmy will be detained beyond the end of the year.
Friday 13 February 2015
Nepean Conservative Candidate
Q44: Who will be the Conservative candidate for the next election in the federal riding of Nepean?
Lisa MacLeod: 50%
Steve Desroches: 10%
Jan Harder: 5%
Someone Else: 35%
John Baird was planning on running in the newly created federal riding of Nepean. With his resignation, the race for Conservative candidate for that riding becomes open. Lisa MacLeod, the MPP for the (larger) Nepean-Carleton provincial riding, has expressed some interest, and has dropped out of the provincial PC leadership (perhaps to run federally). She seems to be the clear front-runner. Steve Desroches and Jan Harder may also be candidates, according to this article, but neither has clearly expressed interest, and Harder is apparently encouraging MacLeod to run. "Someone else" is often a good option in these sort of cases.
Lisa MacLeod: 50%
Steve Desroches: 10%
Jan Harder: 5%
Someone Else: 35%
John Baird was planning on running in the newly created federal riding of Nepean. With his resignation, the race for Conservative candidate for that riding becomes open. Lisa MacLeod, the MPP for the (larger) Nepean-Carleton provincial riding, has expressed some interest, and has dropped out of the provincial PC leadership (perhaps to run federally). She seems to be the clear front-runner. Steve Desroches and Jan Harder may also be candidates, according to this article, but neither has clearly expressed interest, and Harder is apparently encouraging MacLeod to run. "Someone else" is often a good option in these sort of cases.
Thursday 12 February 2015
Ukrainian Ceasefire
Q43: Will the Ukrainian ceasefire agreed to on February 12, 2015 be substantially respected by both parties before May 1st, 2015?
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
(Minor violations will not count. The ceasefire is all that matters for this question; the rest of the agreement is not relevant)
In the Minsk agreement reached today, the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian rebels agreed to a ceasefire starting on February 15. A previous ceasefire in September failed to stop the fighting. There seems to be substantial skepticism that today's agreement will be honored from the White House and other sources. It seems that there is still substantial fighting going on, which is not a good sign.
I think that it is rather unlikely that the current ceasefire will work; there seem to be few signs that it will. It does not seem very different from the failed September ceasefire.
Yes: 20%
No: 80%
(Minor violations will not count. The ceasefire is all that matters for this question; the rest of the agreement is not relevant)
In the Minsk agreement reached today, the Ukrainian army and pro-Russian rebels agreed to a ceasefire starting on February 15. A previous ceasefire in September failed to stop the fighting. There seems to be substantial skepticism that today's agreement will be honored from the White House and other sources. It seems that there is still substantial fighting going on, which is not a good sign.
I think that it is rather unlikely that the current ceasefire will work; there seem to be few signs that it will. It does not seem very different from the failed September ceasefire.
Wednesday 11 February 2015
Eve Adams Electoral Success
Q42: In the next federal election, Eve Adams will
Win a seat as a MP: 40%
Be nominated, but not win: 40%
Not be nominated: 20%
On Monday, Eve Adams, a Conservative MP, crossed the floor to the Liberals. She is expected to seek a Liberal nomination in a GTA riding (probably Eglinton-Lawrence). She had encountered problems being nominated for the Conservatives.
She will likely succeed in being nominated for the Liberals; although many Liberals are opposed to her nomination. She might or might not win; Joe Oliver, the current Eglinton-Lawrence MP, is the finance minister, but Eglinton-Lawrence is not a very strong Conservative riding.
Win a seat as a MP: 40%
Be nominated, but not win: 40%
Not be nominated: 20%
On Monday, Eve Adams, a Conservative MP, crossed the floor to the Liberals. She is expected to seek a Liberal nomination in a GTA riding (probably Eglinton-Lawrence). She had encountered problems being nominated for the Conservatives.
She will likely succeed in being nominated for the Liberals; although many Liberals are opposed to her nomination. She might or might not win; Joe Oliver, the current Eglinton-Lawrence MP, is the finance minister, but Eglinton-Lawrence is not a very strong Conservative riding.
Tuesday 10 February 2015
Canadian Dollar v2
I am going to make another prediction about the Canadian dollar (Q7 was made previously).
Q41: What will the value of the Canadian Dollar in US Dollars be at the end of 2015?
Less than 80 cents: 50%
Between 80 and 85 cents: 25%
Between 85 and 90 cents: 15%
Greater than 90 cents: 10%
(The Bank of Canada exchange rate on noon of December 31, 2015 shall be used)
The Canadian Dollar is currently worth about 80 cents US (after falling from 85 cents US at the beginning of the year). As I said in Q7, this is an area where predictions that the dollar will certainly rise or fall are not well-justified. So my median prediction for the end of 2015 is now 80 cents.
Looking at the past 10 years of exchange rate data, the change in the exchange rate would have been sufficient to move the Canadian Dollar above 85 cents in 2.5 out of the last 10 years, and above 90 cents in 1 out of the last 10 years. I will use those numbers for my estimates.
Q41: What will the value of the Canadian Dollar in US Dollars be at the end of 2015?
Less than 80 cents: 50%
Between 80 and 85 cents: 25%
Between 85 and 90 cents: 15%
Greater than 90 cents: 10%
(The Bank of Canada exchange rate on noon of December 31, 2015 shall be used)
The Canadian Dollar is currently worth about 80 cents US (after falling from 85 cents US at the beginning of the year). As I said in Q7, this is an area where predictions that the dollar will certainly rise or fall are not well-justified. So my median prediction for the end of 2015 is now 80 cents.
Looking at the past 10 years of exchange rate data, the change in the exchange rate would have been sufficient to move the Canadian Dollar above 85 cents in 2.5 out of the last 10 years, and above 90 cents in 1 out of the last 10 years. I will use those numbers for my estimates.
Monday 9 February 2015
NCC Minister
I had prepared this prediction, but not released it. I need to get better at predicting when things will happen...
Who will be the next Minister responsible for the NCC?
Pierre Poilievre: 70%
Gordon O'Connor: 5%
Royal Galipeau: 5%
Someone Else: 20%
John Baird's resignation has left a gap for Minister responsible for the NCC. Pierre Poilievre seems to be the front-runner to fill this gap (see the article here), since he is the only Ottawa-area MP currently in cabinet. Gordon O'Connor has been in cabinet before, but is retiring in the next election. Royal Galipeau does not seem to be considered "cabinet-ready". I think that it is quite possible that there could be a non-Ottawa area MP in this role, but there are a lot of candidates in that case.
Who will be the next Minister responsible for the NCC?
Pierre Poilievre: 70%
Gordon O'Connor: 5%
Royal Galipeau: 5%
Someone Else: 20%
John Baird's resignation has left a gap for Minister responsible for the NCC. Pierre Poilievre seems to be the front-runner to fill this gap (see the article here), since he is the only Ottawa-area MP currently in cabinet. Gordon O'Connor has been in cabinet before, but is retiring in the next election. Royal Galipeau does not seem to be considered "cabinet-ready". I think that it is quite possible that there could be a non-Ottawa area MP in this role, but there are a lot of candidates in that case.
845 Carling Approval
Q40: Will the development proposal for 845 Carling avenue be approved by the City of Ottawa planning committee?
Yes: 80%
No: 20%
Richcraft, a local developer, has proposed a 1100-unit, 3-building complex near Dow's Lake in Ottawa. One of the buildings, if built according to current plans, would be the tallest in Ottawa. The local councillor, Catherine McKenney, is supportive of the development, as is the City of Ottawa planning department. The proposal will be consider by the planning committee on Tuesday.
Given the level of support this proposal enjoys, it is very likely to be approved. This is not a sure thing, given how ambitious the proposal is.
Yes: 80%
No: 20%
Richcraft, a local developer, has proposed a 1100-unit, 3-building complex near Dow's Lake in Ottawa. One of the buildings, if built according to current plans, would be the tallest in Ottawa. The local councillor, Catherine McKenney, is supportive of the development, as is the City of Ottawa planning department. The proposal will be consider by the planning committee on Tuesday.
Given the level of support this proposal enjoys, it is very likely to be approved. This is not a sure thing, given how ambitious the proposal is.
Sunday 8 February 2015
Sana'a Control
Q39: By the end of 2015, who will control Sana'a (the capital of Yemen)?
Houthis: 75%
Government of Yemen: 18%
Al-Qaeda: 5%
Someone else: 2%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)
In September of last year, the Houthis seized control of the Yemeni capital of Sana'a. President Hadi resigned in late January, after the shelling of the Presidential Palace. The Wikipedia article has more details.
I think that the Houthis will remain in control of Sana'a for the rest of 2015. They might lose control to the Yemeni government (either through diplomacy or military action). Al-Qaeda might also seize the city, although they seem to be stronger in the south of Yemen. Finally, it is always possible that some other faction could arise and take control of Sana'a.
Houthis: 75%
Government of Yemen: 18%
Al-Qaeda: 5%
Someone else: 2%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)
In September of last year, the Houthis seized control of the Yemeni capital of Sana'a. President Hadi resigned in late January, after the shelling of the Presidential Palace. The Wikipedia article has more details.
I think that the Houthis will remain in control of Sana'a for the rest of 2015. They might lose control to the Yemeni government (either through diplomacy or military action). Al-Qaeda might also seize the city, although they seem to be stronger in the south of Yemen. Finally, it is always possible that some other faction could arise and take control of Sana'a.
Saturday 7 February 2015
Zehaf-Bibeau Video
Q38: Will the video produced by Michael Zehaf-Bibeau be released before the end of 2015?
Yes: 57%
No: 43%
(An unofficial release will count. A partial (e.g. of a transcript) or censored release would also count, as long as something substantial is released)
Before he committed his October 22 attack, Michael Zehaf-Bibeau produced a video explaining his intentions. The RCMP is currently in possession of this video, and has no plans to release it. According to previous statements, the video revealed Zehaf-Bibeau's ideological and political motives.
There have been recent calls to release the video. The Liberals and NDP support releasing the video. I think the video will probably not be released if the Conservatives win the election (say a 25% chance of release) and probably will be released if the Liberals (or NDP) win the election (75% chance of release). Since the Conservatives have a 35% chance of winning, I get a 57% chance of the video being released.
Yes: 57%
No: 43%
(An unofficial release will count. A partial (e.g. of a transcript) or censored release would also count, as long as something substantial is released)
Before he committed his October 22 attack, Michael Zehaf-Bibeau produced a video explaining his intentions. The RCMP is currently in possession of this video, and has no plans to release it. According to previous statements, the video revealed Zehaf-Bibeau's ideological and political motives.
There have been recent calls to release the video. The Liberals and NDP support releasing the video. I think the video will probably not be released if the Conservatives win the election (say a 25% chance of release) and probably will be released if the Liberals (or NDP) win the election (75% chance of release). Since the Conservatives have a 35% chance of winning, I get a 57% chance of the video being released.
Friday 6 February 2015
Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister
Q37: Who will be the next Canadian Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Ed Fast: 15%
Peter MacKay: 10%
Jason Kenney: 10%
Lisa Raitt: 5%
Chris Alexander: 5%
James Moore: 5%
Rona Ambrose: 5%
Tony Clement: 5%
Christian Paradis: 5%
Rob Nicholson: 5%
Maxime Bernier: 5%
Pierre Poilievre: 3%
Lynne Yelich: 2%
Someone Else: 20%
(This question will be scored as top three vs. other listed candidates vs. Someone else)
John Baird, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, resigned abruptly this week. There has been speculation on who will replace him in that post. There are a lot of possibilities, and no obvious candidate. I think the most likely candidate is Ed Fast, as he was chosen as the interim minister. Peter MacKay is more likely because of his previous experience. Jason Kenney has played a similar role before. A lot of others are also possibilities. Of those not mentioned in the article, Christian Paradis might be a candidate, as he is the current Minister for International Development. Rob Nicholson might be a candidate. Maxime Bernier was Foreign Affairs Minister before his problems. Pierre Poilievre would be a (somewhat under-qualified) "Ottawa" choice. Lynne Yelich is the current Minister of State for Foreign Affairs.
Ed Fast: 15%
Peter MacKay: 10%
Jason Kenney: 10%
Lisa Raitt: 5%
Chris Alexander: 5%
James Moore: 5%
Rona Ambrose: 5%
Tony Clement: 5%
Christian Paradis: 5%
Rob Nicholson: 5%
Maxime Bernier: 5%
Pierre Poilievre: 3%
Lynne Yelich: 2%
Someone Else: 20%
(This question will be scored as top three vs. other listed candidates vs. Someone else)
John Baird, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, resigned abruptly this week. There has been speculation on who will replace him in that post. There are a lot of possibilities, and no obvious candidate. I think the most likely candidate is Ed Fast, as he was chosen as the interim minister. Peter MacKay is more likely because of his previous experience. Jason Kenney has played a similar role before. A lot of others are also possibilities. Of those not mentioned in the article, Christian Paradis might be a candidate, as he is the current Minister for International Development. Rob Nicholson might be a candidate. Maxime Bernier was Foreign Affairs Minister before his problems. Pierre Poilievre would be a (somewhat under-qualified) "Ottawa" choice. Lynne Yelich is the current Minister of State for Foreign Affairs.
Thursday 5 February 2015
Canadian Inflation
Q36: What will the Canadian inflation rate be in 2015?
Less than 1%: 30%
1% to 2%: 35%
2% to 3%: 20%
3% or higher: 15%
(Definition note: The inflation rate shall be the ratio of the CPI in December 2015 to that in December 2014 as determined by CANSIM Table 326-0020. It was 1.5% in 2014)
The median "big bank" inflation forecast is around 1%. However, their estimates seem to use a different definition for inflation, which leads to lower estimates. There is a fair range in the estimates (from 0.4% to 1.4%), although this might be due to differences in definitions. However, it seems that inflation is expected to be under 2%, and quite possibly below 1%. Increases in oil prices (or other events) could push inflation above 2 or 3%.
Less than 1%: 30%
1% to 2%: 35%
2% to 3%: 20%
3% or higher: 15%
(Definition note: The inflation rate shall be the ratio of the CPI in December 2015 to that in December 2014 as determined by CANSIM Table 326-0020. It was 1.5% in 2014)
The median "big bank" inflation forecast is around 1%. However, their estimates seem to use a different definition for inflation, which leads to lower estimates. There is a fair range in the estimates (from 0.4% to 1.4%), although this might be due to differences in definitions. However, it seems that inflation is expected to be under 2%, and quite possibly below 1%. Increases in oil prices (or other events) could push inflation above 2 or 3%.
Wednesday 4 February 2015
Income-Splitting
Q35: Will a law be passed allowing income-splitting between parents in 2015?
Yes: 95%
No: 5%
The federal government has promised to allow income-splitting between parents in the upcoming federal budget. CRA has already included this provision for the 2014 tax year. Given this, it would be very awkward to not pass a law allowing income-splitting; it already seems to be in place in a de-facto sense.
Yes: 95%
No: 5%
The federal government has promised to allow income-splitting between parents in the upcoming federal budget. CRA has already included this provision for the 2014 tax year. Given this, it would be very awkward to not pass a law allowing income-splitting; it already seems to be in place in a de-facto sense.
Tuesday 3 February 2015
Mariupol Control
Q34: By the end of 2015, who will control Mariupol?
Ukraine: 85%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 13%
Someone else: 2%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control. If Mariupol is in control of officially recognized Russian forces, this question will resolve as "Rebels or Russia". Mariupol in this question refers to the city centre. "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)
The Ukrainian city of Mariupol was recently shelled by rebel forces. It is currently controlled by Ukrainian forces, although it is close to rebel-controlled areas. There has been some speculation that it might be attacked by the rebels in an attempt to create a land bridge between Russia and Crimea.
I think that Mariupol will stay in Ukrainian hands. Capturing it would be very difficult; according to the source above, it would " involve urban warfare on a scale unprecedented in the conflict". Also, it is unlikely to be ceded by Ukraine in any sort of diplomatic solution.
Ukraine: 85%
Donetsk Rebels or Russia: 13%
Someone else: 2%
(Definition note: Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control. If Mariupol is in control of officially recognized Russian forces, this question will resolve as "Rebels or Russia". Mariupol in this question refers to the city centre. "Someone else" covers contingencies such as UN control)
The Ukrainian city of Mariupol was recently shelled by rebel forces. It is currently controlled by Ukrainian forces, although it is close to rebel-controlled areas. There has been some speculation that it might be attacked by the rebels in an attempt to create a land bridge between Russia and Crimea.
I think that Mariupol will stay in Ukrainian hands. Capturing it would be very difficult; according to the source above, it would " involve urban warfare on a scale unprecedented in the conflict". Also, it is unlikely to be ceded by Ukraine in any sort of diplomatic solution.
Monday 2 February 2015
US Federal Funds Rate
Q33: What will the minimum of US Federal Funds Target Range be at the end of 2015?
0.25% or lower: 25%
0.5% to 0.75%: 20%
1% to 1.25%: 20%
1.5% to 1.75%: 20%
2% or higher: 15%
The current US Federal Funds Target Range is 0% to 0.25%. This rate is widely expected to rise in 2015. The median appropriate rate at the end of the year according to FOMC participants should be 1%. I am basing my estimates primarily on that, with a bit of bias towards lower rates (since the overnight rate has gone down in Canada).
0.25% or lower: 25%
0.5% to 0.75%: 20%
1% to 1.25%: 20%
1.5% to 1.75%: 20%
2% or higher: 15%
The current US Federal Funds Target Range is 0% to 0.25%. This rate is widely expected to rise in 2015. The median appropriate rate at the end of the year according to FOMC participants should be 1%. I am basing my estimates primarily on that, with a bit of bias towards lower rates (since the overnight rate has gone down in Canada).
Sunday 1 February 2015
US Economic Growth
Q32: What will US real GDP growth be in 2015?
Below 2%: 33%
Between 2% and 3%: 22%
Between 3% and 4%: 20%
Above 4%: 25%
Above 4%: 25%
(Definition Note: The source for this question will be the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. I will use the revised numbers, not the "third" estimates)
According to projections of several forecasters, US real GDP growth is expected to be 2.8% (on average) from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015. The historical root mean squared error (RMSE) of these forecasts is around 1.8%. These numbers were used to derive the estimate above for annual GDP growth (which should be closely related).
According to projections of several forecasters, US real GDP growth is expected to be 2.8% (on average) from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the fourth quarter of 2015. The historical root mean squared error (RMSE) of these forecasts is around 1.8%. These numbers were used to derive the estimate above for annual GDP growth (which should be closely related).
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