Friday, 20 February 2015

Damascus control

Q51: By the end of 2015, who will control Damascus, Syria?
The (current) Syrian Government: 90%
The Islamic State: 2%
Someone Else: 8%
(Control in this question refers to de-facto physical control, not legal control)

The Syrian Civil War has been going on since 2011 between the Syrian government and various opposition groups, the most prominent being Islamic State.  The Syrian government currently controls about half of the country, mostly in the west of the country, with Islamic State controlling much of the east of the country and various other opposition groups controlling pockets in the west of the country (see map here).

There have been attempts by opposition groups to capture Damascus before, most notably in 2012 in the Battle of Damascus.  However, I think that the government will almost certainly remain in control of Damascus for the rest of the year, as they have for the past 4 years.  It is very unlikely that Islamic State will capture it, given that the territories they control are a long way away.  A diplomatic solution to the war (with the government losing control of Damascus) seems unlikely, but is possible.


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