Calgary Airport Renaming

Before the end of 2016, will the Calgary International Airport be renamed after Stephen Harper?
Yes: 5%
(An official announcement that the renaming will take place is sufficient)

A recent online petition has called for the Calgary airport to be renamed after former Prime Minister Stephen Harper (see story here).  This petition seems to lack any official support, and it would be somewhat unusual to rename an airport after a current political figure like this.  Having said that, it is quite possible that the airport could be renamed after Harper in the long term, and it could happen in the short term if circumstances change.

Conservative Permanent Leader

Who will be the next permanent leader of the federal Conservative party?
Jason Kenney: 30%
Lisa Raitt: 15%
Maxime Bernier: 10%
Brad Wall: 10%
Someone else: 35%

There are a number of possible candidates for the leadership of the Conservatives (see article here).  Jason Kenney, the former defence minister, seems to be the current frontrunner.  Lisa Raitt is often mentioned as a potential candidate, and is currently in a senior role as opposition critic for Finance.  Maxime Bernier has expressed interest in running (see article here).  Brad Wall, the current Saskatchewan premier, has repeatedly denied being interested in running, but is persistently rumoured to be a candidate (see story here).  At this point, there are other potential candidates as well, including the current interim leader Rona Ambrose.

Turkish Apology Russsia

By the end of 2015, will Turkey apologize for the downing of a Russian fighter jet?
Yes: 25%

Russia has asked for Turkey to apologize for the recent downing of a Russian fighter jet, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has refused to do so (see story here).  I think that Erdogan will stick to his guns, and no apology will be forthcoming, but the situation seems to be changing rapidly.

Salah Abdeslam Apprehension

When will Salah Abdeslam be apprehended by the authorities?
Before December 5th: 30%
Between December 5th and the end of December: 30%
Not before the end of December: 40%
(If Salah Abdeslam dies, that counts as a apprehension, as long as the authorities are in possession of his body.  This question will be based on local time in the country of apprehension)

Salah Abdeslam is a key suspect in the November 13th Paris attacks (see article here).  A manhunt for him in Belgium seems to have failed to find him so far, and the authorities do not seem terribly close to finding him.  I think the most likely outcome is that he will not be found before the end of the year, but it is possible that he could be found in the next week, or later in December.

Paris Climate Deal Binding

Will the Paris climate talks result in a legally binding agreement including the US?
Yes: 20%
(If the talks fail to reach any agreement by the end of 2015, the question will resolve as "No" .  The deal does not need to be approved by all countries, and does not need to receive legislative approval for a "Yes")

There seems to be some debate over whether the proposed Paris climate deal will be legally binding (see article here).  The EU seems to be pushing for the deal to be legally binding, while the US is opposed to a legally binding treaty.  The Kyoto Protocol was legally binding (although the US did not agree to it) , while the Copenhagen Accord was not legally binding.  My guess is that the Paris talks will not result in a legally binding agreement, as US opposition to such an agreement seems to be considerable.

Canada Interest Rate December

What will be the result of the December 2nd Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 15%
Unchanged Rate: 80%
Rate Increase: 5%

The next interest rate announcement will take place on December 2nd.  The expectation seems to be that rates will stay the same, or perhaps fall further (see story here).  A rate increase seems to be very unlikely at this point.  I am going with the same odds I used in my October prediction.

Russian Ambassador Turkey

Before the end of 2015, will Russia recall its ambassador from Turkey?
Yes: 25%

Relations between Russia and Turkey have been strained by the recent shoot-down of a Russian fighter jet by Turkish forces (see article here).  Putin has warned that the event will have "significant consequences".  One of those consequences could be the recall of the Russian ambassador from Turkey.  This would be a significant escalation, so I think that it is less likely than not, although still quite possible.

Islamist Terrorism in the EU

Before the end of 2015, will there be another lethal Islamist terrorist attack in the EU?
Yes: 25%
(To count, the attack must result in the death of at least 3 people, not including the perpetrators)

There seems to be some fear of other terrorist attacks after the recent attack in Paris (see article here).  The statistical base rate of such attacks is rather low; there have been 3 such attacks in the last 2 years, corresponding to a 14% base rate estimate before the end of the year (see Wikipedia article here).  Longer time periods yield even lower estimates.  Still, I think the recent attack in Paris does increase the odds slightly over the base rate.

Ottawa Shootings v2

Will the number of shootings in the City of Ottawa in 2015 be higher or equal to the number in 2014 (49)?
Yes: 40%

There have been a number of recent shooting incidents in Ottawa in recent weeks (see article here and my previous prediction here).  The total for the year is now 40, which is still not on pace to reach last year's record of 49 (about 45 shootings would be expected given the pace set so far this year), although it is higher than I would have expected at the beginning of year.  The statistical base rate estimate would be around 6% (based on the current rate so far this year, and a Poisson distribution for the number of shootings).  However, there may be an underlying reason for the high number of incidents in recent weeks, so I am going with a higher estimate.

CP-NS Merger

By the end of 2016, will Canadian Pacific and Norfolk Southern have merged or be in the process of merging?
Yes: 20%
(To be in the progress of merging, both companies must have agreed to the merger.  Not all regulatory decisions need to have been made, but those that have been made must be favourable to the merger.  The merger deal does not need to be the present one.)

Canadian Pacific has made an offer to acquire Norfolk Southern (see articles here and here).  Norfolk Southern management does not seem to be too positive on the deal, and there seem to be significant regulatory hurdles in both the US and Canada.  Last year, CP tried and failed to buy CSX, and CN's attempt to buy BNSF in 2000 ultimately failed to gain regulatory approval.  I think the likely best outcome for this deal is that it will still be in the regulatory process by the end of 2016.

Assisted Suicide Law v2

Before February 6th, 2016, what will happen with regards to Canada's assisted suicide law?
A new law will be passed regulating assisted suicide: 25%
The current law will be extended by the Supreme Court: 50%
The current law will expire: 25%

On February 6th, 2016, the current law regarding assisted suicide is set to expire, as per February's Supreme Court decision (see my previous post here, and the editorial here).  The government is currently considering what to do, and has not ruled out asking the Supreme Court to extend the current law to allow more time for a new one to be drafted.  I think that the government will probably make this request, and it will be granted additional time to draft a new law.  Having said that, a wide variety of potential outcomes are possible, especially if the Supreme Court turns down the government's request for an extension.

Syrian Airstrikes Canada

Will the government of Canada cease air strikes in Syria before the end of March 2016?
Yes: 75%

The new government has repeatedly pledged to end air strikes in Syria by the end of March (see articles here and here).  There has been some pressure on the government to continue air strikes in light of the recent attacks in France.  My sense is that the government will keep their pledge to end air strikes; if they were going to reverse themselves, they probably would have already done so.

House Speaker

Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Commons?
Mauril Bélanger: 20%
Denis Paradis: 20%
Geoff Regan: 20%
Yasmin Ratansi: 15%
Someone Else: 25%

A number of candidates have put their names forward to be Speaker of the House of the Commons (see article here).  The four candidates seem to be Mauril Bélanger, Denis Paradis, Geoff Regan, and Yasmin Ratansi.  Paradis, Bélanger, and Regan are all long-time MPs who have served in junior roles in cabinet; they seem about equally likely to win.  Yasmin Ratansi seems slightly less accomplished, although she has served as Deputy Whip.  I suspect that there could still be other candidates as well.

Syrian Refugee Timing

By the end of 2015, will the government of Canada bring in at least 20,000 Syrian refugees?
Yes: 65%
(The refugees must actually be in Canada to count for the purposes of this question)

The government of Canada has promised to bring in 25,000 Syrian refugees by the end of the year (see article here).  Some have expressed concern about the short timeline, but the government has reiterated their commitment to bring in the refugees by the end of the year.  I think that most of the refugees will indeed be in the country by the end of the year, but significant delays are possible.

French State of Emergency

Will the French parliament decide to extend the current state of emergency beyond the end of 2015?
Yes: 90%

Following the terrorist attacks on Friday, the French government declared a temporary state of emergency (see articles here and here).  The government is asking the French parliament to extend the state of emergency for another three months.  As far as I can tell, parliament is very likely to agree to this request; I've seen no evidence that it is particularly controversial, although it does not seem to be in line with historical practice.

Overall Riding Prediction Performance

Overall, my predictions for Ottawa ridings were generally not that accurate.  The Brier score for my initial round of predictions was 0.61, versus an expected Brier score of 0.28 (lower is better for Brier scores).  This suggests that I was overconfident in some of my predictions.  In fact, if I had just given 50% odds to the top two parties, I would have gotten a Brier score of 0.56 (I initially put the Liberals as the third most likely party to win in Gatineau, so the average Brier score would be above 0.5).  Having said that, since my riding errors were so heavily correlated (i.e. I consistently underestimated the Liberals), my first round of predictions were closer to a single prediction underestimating the Liberals than a bunch of independent incorrect predictions.  This limits the strength of the conclusion I can draw.

I did much better in my second round of predictions, achieving a Brier score of 0.33 versus an expected score of 0.31.  My second round predictions were evidently much better calibrated and more accurate.  I evidently underestimated the importance of changes in the polls during the campaign.

Election-Related Post-Mortem: Quebec and Rural Ridings

• The Liberals won in Hull—Aylmer (see also Hull-Alymer v2).  I initially gave them 13% odds, which I later increased to 45%
• The Liberals won in Gatineau (see also Gatineau v2).  I initially gave them 2% odds (I actually thought they were less likely to win then the BQ), which I later increased to 15%
• The Liberals won in Pontiac (see also Pontiac v2).  I initially gave them 12% odds, which I later increased to 65%.
• The Liberals won in Glengarry—Prescott—Russell (see also Glengarry—Prescott—Russell v2).  My odds went from 35% to 70%.
• The Conservatives won in Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry.  I gave them 90% odds.
• The Conservatives won in Leeds—Grenville.  I gave them 90% odds there as well.
• The Conservatives won in Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston.  I gave them 92% odds.
• The Conservatives won in Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke.  I gave them 94% odds.
• The NDP won in Outremont.  I gave them a 65% chance of winning there.

The biggest miss was definitely in Gatineau.  The NDP won in 2011 in Gatineau with almost 62% of the vote, and they had a very strong candidate in Françoise Boivin.  The size of the vote swing there was much larger than I expected, and rather surprising.

Election-Related Post-Mortem: Ottawa Ridings

• The Liberals won in Ottawa Centre (see also Ottawa Centre v2).  I originally gave them a 4% chance of winning, which I later increased to 30%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa-Vanier (see also Ottawa-Vanier v2).  My odds went from 90% to 97%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa-West Nepean (see also Ottawa-West Nepean v2).  My odds went from 55% to 90%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa South (see also Ottawa South v2).  My odds went from 95% to 99%.
• The Liberals won in Orleans (see also Orleans v2).  My odds went from 70% to 87%.
• The Liberals won in Nepean (see also Nepean v2).  My odds went from 25% to 65%.
• The Liberals won in Kanata-Carleton (see also Kanata-Carleton v2).  My odds went from 20% to 72%.
• The Conservatives won in Carleton (see also Carleton v2).  My odds went from 90% to 85%.

The most significant miss was definitely in Ottawa Centre, although I think it was justifiable in context.

Election Related Post-Mortem: National Results

• The Liberals won a majority in the federal election.  In my first post in January, Federal Election Result, I gave a Liberal majority a 20% chance, and a Liberal government a 60% chance.  In my second post in April, Federal Election Result v2, I gave a Liberal majority a 10% chance. and a Liberal government a 40% chance.  In my third post in May, Federal Election Result v3, I stayed with the 10% chance for a Liberal majority, but decreased the chance of a Liberal government to 30%.  I don't think these numbers were too far off; the Liberal surge late in the campaign was genuinely surprising.
• The party that won the most seats is indeed forming the government (see my post Next Government Plurality).  I said this had a 93% chance of happening.  This question would have been more interesting under a minority government scenario
• The Federal Election Voter Turnnout was 68.5%.  I gave 5% odds to a turnout higher than 65%.  I was definitely somewhat overconfident about this question, although the model I used suggested I should have been even more confident (I was justifiably somewhat sceptical of the model, and maybe I should have been even more sceptical).  The high turnout at the advance polls was perhaps more meaningful than I thought, as was the perceived closeness of the election.
• The Conservative Polling Error was about 1% (the Conservatives were projected to get 30.9% of the vote, and actually got 31.89%).  I gave a 65% chance of a greater than 0% polling error, and a 30% chance of a polling error between 0% and 2%.  The Conservatives thus outperformed the polls to about the extent I expected (although they didn't get as many seats because of the Liberal out-performance).
• The CBC called the election before 10pm (see my post Timing of CBC Election Call).  I gave them 40% odds of calling the election before 11pm.  The results came in faster than I expected.

Election Related Post-Mortem: Campaign

• There were five Federal Election TV Debates.  I said there was a 60% chance of at least this number of debates, which might have been slightly overconfident given how much uncertainty seemed to be associated with the process.
• Neither Stephen Harper nor Rob Nicholson announced that they would retire before the federal election (see my posts Stephen Harper Retirement and Rob Nicholson Retirement).  I said Harper had a 35% chance of such an announcement, which was definitely too high in the absence of suggestive evidence.  I gave Nicholson a 15% of retiring, which was more reasonable.
• Negotiations have concluded on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (also see my Canada-specific predictions Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada and Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada v2).  I originally said a deal had a 15% chance of being reached between September and December, and a 35% chance of being reached in 2015.  I also said a deal involving Canada had a 20% chance of being reached in 2015, which I later increased to 45%.  I may have been a bit too pessimistic about the likelihood of a deal being reached, especially one involving Canada.
• Mulcair did not renounce his French citizenship (see my post Mulcair French Citizenship).  I gave him a 10% chance of doing so.

Questions Resolved in October: Other

• US Congress Iran Deal has resolved for Do Nothing (the Democrats were able to block Congress from rejecting the deal).  I gave 25% odds of this happening.
• The Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike did not end before the end of September.  I only gave 20% odds for the strike lasting that long.  I still think it is surprising that the strike has lasted as long as it has.
• A Capital Taxi Agreement was reached in September.  I gave a 35% chance to an agreement being reached in September, and a 80% chance to an agreement being reached before the end of September.  Those odds seem reasonable, although (in combination with the last question), I might have been a bit too optimistic about how quickly an agreement could be reached.
• The Bank of Canada Interest rate was left unchanged in October (see my post Canada Interest Rate October).  This was no surprise; I gave "no change" 80% odds.
• The proposed Fission Merger was rejected by shareholders.  I gave 60% odds to this outcome, and may have been slightly under-confident.

Questions Resolved in October: International Elections

A lot of questions have resolved in October, mainly related to the federal election.  I'm going to devote this week to going through them, starting with international election questions.

• The Centre Party won the Finnish Election.  I said they had a 70% of winning, which seems about right.
• The Portugal Ahead coalition won the Portuguese Election (also see my second post Portuguese Election v2).  I originally said the Social Democratic Party (the largest party in the Portugal Ahead coalition) had a 29% chance of winning the most seats, which I later increased to 40% after the coalition formed.  The formation of a coalition is one of those awkward events that can increase the odds of a party that is well behind winning an election.
• The new Portuguese prime minister, Pedro Coelho, belongs to the Portugal Ahead party, which I said had a 15% chance of happening.  I expected the left-wing parties to form an a coalition government, which did not happen.
• The Swiss People's party won the Swiss Election.  I said they had a 60% chance of doing so.
• Jimmy Morales won the Guatemalan Election (also see my other posts Guatemalan Election v2 and Guatemalan Election v3). In my original post, I didn't list him as a candidate, although I did give "Someone Else" a 15% chance of winning.  My second post listed him and gave him a 30% chance of winning, while my third post (after the run-off) gave him a 65% chance of winning.  I might have underestimated Morales, but his victory does seem to be genuinely surprising.
• Alpha Condé won the Guinean Presidential Election.  I gave him a 75% chance of winning, which might have been too low given how popular he seemed to be.

Canada Post Community Mailboxes

During 2016,what will be officially announced regarding Canada Post's community mailbox conversion program?
Community mailbox conversions will resume: 30%
No Announcement will be made: 30%
Home delivery will be restored in some areas: 40%
(In the case of multiple contradictory announcements, the first one is the one that matters.  Only announcements that have an effect in Ottawa count.  If home delivery is to be continued in precisely those areas that already have it, that counts as "No Announcement")

Canada Post recently halted its community mailbox conversion program due to the Liberal election win (see articles here and here).  The Liberals have promised to review the decision to cut home delivery.  Some Liberal MPs have said that home delivery will be restored (see article here).

 A Liberal government could restore home delivery in all (or some) areas that have lost it, continue indefinitely home delivery in only those areas that have it now, or resume the community mailbox conversion program.  I think the Liberals are most likely to restore home delivery, at least in part; the political pressure for them to do so seems to be significant, especially in areas that have recently lost home delivery.

Burmese Election v2

Q141: What party will win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the next Burmese election?
UDSP: 25%
NLD: 73%
Some Other Party: 2%
(The rules for my previous post still apply)

The Burmese election will be held tomorrow (see article here).  As discussed in my last post, the opposition NLD is expected to do very well, although there are some concerns that the vote will be rigged or not recognized by the ruling UDSP party.  Given how smoothly the election has gone so far, I am increasing my odds for the NLD.  I am also decreasing my odds for the other option, as no other credible party seems to have emerged.

Portuguese Confidence Vote

Before the end of 2015, will the government of Portugal lose a confidence vote?
Yes: 80%

The new right-wing government of Portugal is widely expected to lose a confidence vote on November 10th, due to the opposition of a number of left-wing parties (see article here).  In the last election, the government won a plurality of seats, but lost its parliamentary majority.

Bombardier Federal Funding

By the end of June 2016, will the federal government announce at least $100 million in additional funding to Bombardier?
Yes: 65%
(The form of funding is not relevant to this question, as long as it is in addition to previously announced funding.)

The Quebec government recently announced a $1 billion investment in Bombardier, to help it with its CSeries jet program (see article here).  Quebec has asked the federal government to provide funding as well.  The new government has said that they are considering the decision, and will make a decision after the cabinet is sworn in.  I think that some sort of new funding will be announced, in line with the Quebec funding.

Conservative Leader Timing

Before the end of 2016, will the next permanent Conservative leader be chosen?
Yes: 50%

There has been some speculation about when the next permanent Conservative leader will be chosen (see article here).  Some Conservatives want a new leader to be chosen before the end of 2016, while others would prefer more of a delay.  For comparison, the last Liberal leadership convention was held almost 2 years after the 2011 election.  On the other hand, the last Ontario PC leadership convention was held only a year after the 2014 provincial election.

Deputy Prime Minister

Who will be the next Deputy Prime Minister?
Ralph Goodale: 70%
Someone Else: 30%

Ralph Goodale seems to be widely expected to fill the Deputy Prime Minister role (see article here, and older articles here and here).  There don't seem to be any other major candidates.

Liberal MPs Reform Act

Which provisions of the Reform Act will Liberal MPs vote to accept?
None of Them: 25%
Some, but not all of Them: 20%
All of Them: 55%

The recently passed Reform Act allows each party's MPs to vote as a caucus on whether they will have a say on certain party governance decisions (see article here and my previous post here).  It is not clear to me what the MPs will decide.  However, I suspect they are more likely than not to accept at least some of the Reform Act's rules, given that the Act was passed with wide support by the last Parliament.

Ottawa Cabinet Ministers

How many senior cabinet ministers from Ottawa will the next federal cabinet contain?
None: 10%
One: 65%
Two: 15%
More than Two: 10%

(Ministers of State, Parliamentary Secretaries, and Associate Ministers don't count as senior cabinet positions.  Ottawa cabinet ministers are MPs from ridings that intersect the City of Ottawa)

Andrew Leslie is seen as a very likely senior cabinet minister.  Catherine McKenna, Karen McCrimmon, and David McGuinty seem to be other possible cabinet ministers.  In terms of regional parity, Ottawa has about 2.5% of seats nationwide, corresponding to about 60% of a seat in a 24-seat cabinet, and about 4% of Liberal seats, corresponding to about one seat in a 24-seat cabinet.  It seems very likely to me that Ottawa will have one senior minister (probably Andrew Leslie), although it could have more than that.