Ottawa Shootings v2

Will the number of shootings in the City of Ottawa in 2015 be higher or equal to the number in 2014 (49)?
Yes: 40%

There have been a number of recent shooting incidents in Ottawa in recent weeks (see article here and my previous prediction here).  The total for the year is now 40, which is still not on pace to reach last year's record of 49 (about 45 shootings would be expected given the pace set so far this year), although it is higher than I would have expected at the beginning of year.  The statistical base rate estimate would be around 6% (based on the current rate so far this year, and a Poisson distribution for the number of shootings).  However, there may be an underlying reason for the high number of incidents in recent weeks, so I am going with a higher estimate.