Will the Paris climate talks result in a legally binding agreement including the US?
Yes: 20%
(If the talks fail to reach any agreement by the end of 2015, the question will resolve as "No" . The deal does not need to be approved by all countries, and does not need to receive legislative approval for a "Yes")
There seems to be some debate over whether the proposed Paris climate deal will be legally binding (see article here). The EU seems to be pushing for the deal to be legally binding, while the US is opposed to a legally binding treaty. The Kyoto Protocol was legally binding (although the US did not agree to it) , while the Copenhagen Accord was not legally binding. My guess is that the Paris talks will not result in a legally binding agreement, as US opposition to such an agreement seems to be considerable.
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