Election Related Post-Mortem: National Results

• The Liberals won a majority in the federal election.  In my first post in January, Federal Election Result, I gave a Liberal majority a 20% chance, and a Liberal government a 60% chance.  In my second post in April, Federal Election Result v2, I gave a Liberal majority a 10% chance. and a Liberal government a 40% chance.  In my third post in May, Federal Election Result v3, I stayed with the 10% chance for a Liberal majority, but decreased the chance of a Liberal government to 30%.  I don't think these numbers were too far off; the Liberal surge late in the campaign was genuinely surprising.
• The party that won the most seats is indeed forming the government (see my post Next Government Plurality).  I said this had a 93% chance of happening.  This question would have been more interesting under a minority government scenario
• The Federal Election Voter Turnnout was 68.5%.  I gave 5% odds to a turnout higher than 65%.  I was definitely somewhat overconfident about this question, although the model I used suggested I should have been even more confident (I was justifiably somewhat sceptical of the model, and maybe I should have been even more sceptical).  The high turnout at the advance polls was perhaps more meaningful than I thought, as was the perceived closeness of the election.
• The Conservative Polling Error was about 1% (the Conservatives were projected to get 30.9% of the vote, and actually got 31.89%).  I gave a 65% chance of a greater than 0% polling error, and a 30% chance of a polling error between 0% and 2%.  The Conservatives thus outperformed the polls to about the extent I expected (although they didn't get as many seats because of the Liberal out-performance).
• The CBC called the election before 10pm (see my post Timing of CBC Election Call).  I gave them 40% odds of calling the election before 11pm.  The results came in faster than I expected.