Election-Related Post-Mortem: Ottawa Ridings

• The Liberals won in Ottawa Centre (see also Ottawa Centre v2).  I originally gave them a 4% chance of winning, which I later increased to 30%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa-Vanier (see also Ottawa-Vanier v2).  My odds went from 90% to 97%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa-West Nepean (see also Ottawa-West Nepean v2).  My odds went from 55% to 90%.
• The Liberals won in Ottawa South (see also Ottawa South v2).  My odds went from 95% to 99%.
• The Liberals won in Orleans (see also Orleans v2).  My odds went from 70% to 87%.
• The Liberals won in Nepean (see also Nepean v2).  My odds went from 25% to 65%.
• The Liberals won in Kanata-Carleton (see also Kanata-Carleton v2).  My odds went from 20% to 72%.
• The Conservatives won in Carleton (see also Carleton v2).  My odds went from 90% to 85%.

The most significant miss was definitely in Ottawa Centre, although I think it was justifiable in context.