Next Government Plurality

Will the next government of Canada be formed by the party that wins the plurality of seats in the next election?
Yes: 93%
(If no party wins a plurality of seats (because there is a tie), this question will be voided)

Given the closeness of the current federal election, there has been some speculation that the party that gets a plurality of seats might not form the next government.  The most likely way that this might happen is if the Conservatives place in a close 2nd or 3rd, but are asked to form the government due to incumbency.  It is also possible that the Liberals and NDP could pre-emptively form a coalition if the Conservatives win a plurality, and thus form the next government.

I think that the party that forms the next government is still overwhelmingly likely to be the party with the plurality of seats; a government that took power without winning a plurality might be seen as illegitimate.  There is also a fair chance that a single party will win a majority or near-majority of seats, in which case they will certainly form the next government.

Post-Election Confidence Motion

Before the end of April 2016, will the government of Canada lose a confidence vote?
Yes: 15%

There has been some speculation that, if the Conservatives form the next government, they might very quickly lose a confidence motion (see article here).  Both the Liberals and the NDP have said that they would try to bring down a Conservative government at the earliest opportunity, although the Liberals have said that they will not cooperate with the NDP.  A new government has never lost its first confidence vote in Canadian history, although this almost happened in 2008, when the Liberal-NDP-Bloc coalition was formed.

The Conservatives are the only party that are likely to lose a confidence motion if they form the government.  The Liberals will likely support the NDP if the NDP form the next government, and vice versa.  Even if the Conservatives do form the next government, they are still somewhat unlikely to lose a confidence motion; the party that brings them down at that point might be seen as doing so illegitimately.  The most likely situation for the Conservatives to lose a confidence vote is where they form the government but don't have a plurality of seats.

Tobacco Appeal

Will the appeal of the Quebec judgement against tobacco companies lead to a reduction in damages so that they are $1 billion or less?
Yes: 65%
(For the purposes of this question, all damages, fines, and surcharges count toward the total amount.  The initial appeal is all that matters for this question)

A Quebec court recently ordered tobacco companies to pay $15 billion in damages to Quebec smokers (see article here).  The tobacco companies are appealing the judgement.  I think they will probably win, eventually; the original judgement seems to be somewhat of an outlier, and, as the article mentions, the companies won the initial battle over the immediate deposit of $1 billion.

Rockcliffe Redevelopment

Before the end of 2016, will construction begin on new residences on the former Rockcliffe airbase?
Yes: 65%
(Other construction, such as construction of infrastructure, does not count for this question.  Mixed use buildings count, as long as they contain residences)

The community development plan for the former Rockcliffe airbase was recently approved by the City of Ottawa planning committee (see article here).  According to the current plan, parcels should begin to be sold to developers in March of next year, with the first residents moving in in 2017.  On that timetable, construction should start sometime next year.  However, there is the potential for delay, so I am going with a somewhat moderate estimate.

Rexall Acquisition

Before the end of 2016, will Rexall announce that it is to be acquired?
Yes: 15%
(The acquisition does not actually have to take place for this question to close)

There has been some recent speculation that Rexall, a Canadian pharmacy chain, might be acquisition target (see article here).  The inspiration seems to be the recent acquisition of  Shoppers Drug Mart by Loblaw; many of the potential purchasers of Rexall are competitors of Loblaw.

There do not seem to be any internal rumours of impending acquisition, and no one from Rexall is quoted in the article.  The article mentions that a potential deal "could take years to come to fruition".  Given all of the provisos, I think that it is relatively unlikely that Rexall will be acquired by the end of 2016.

Good Judgement Closure

By the end of 2016, will the end of the Good Judgement Open Tournament be announced?
Yes: 25%
(If the tournament is actually closed by the end of 2016, then this question will resolve as a yes. If the announcement of the closure of the tournament is conditional (e.g. on number of forecasters) then this question will close if the tournament does actually close at the time specified.  Announcements that the tournament will close after the end of 2017 do not count for this question.  Temporary interruptions before the end of 2016 are also not sufficient.)

The Good Judgment Open Tournament is a recently launched forecasting tournament, based on the Good Judgment Project (see site here, and Wikipedia article here).  There have been no announcements about how long the tournament will last, but no questions currently in the tournament close after March 1st, 2017 (and only one question closes that far in the future).

The success of the tournament may depend on the success of the parent company, Good Judgment Inc.  If the parent company is unable to find business, the tournament might close down fairly quickly.  Good Judgment Inc. does not appear to be dependant on a single source of funding, which means it is not as vulnerable as it might be.  Still, the future of the tournament is fairly uncertain; it is quite possible that it will close down after the current set of questions end.

Ottawa Cabinet Minister

After the next federal election, will there be an Ottawa MP in cabinet?
Yes: 75%
(An Ottawa MP is one whose riding includes territory in the City of Ottawa)

There are a number of Ottawa MPs who might be in cabinet, depending on which party wins the election.  Pierre Poilievre for the Conservatives, Paul Dewar for the NDP, and David McGuinty are possible ministers.  Given the diversity of options, there probably will be an Ottawa cabinet minister after the next election.

Allstream Sale

By the end of August 2016, who will buy Allstream?
Rogers: 30%
Telus: 10%
Bell: 10%
Some Other Company: 15%
Allstream will not be Sold: 35%
(The sale needs to receive all necessary approvals and close in order for this question to resolve.  The deal only needs to be announced by the end of August 2016; it does not to close by that date)

Manitoba Telecom (MTS) is trying to sell Allstream, a national enterprise communications company (see article here).  A previous sale to an Egyptian firm was blocked in 2013.  There are rumours that Rogers might buy Allstream.  Bell and Telus also seem to potential buyers.  Given the rumours, I think that Rogers is the single most likely buyer, followed by Bell and Telus.  It is also possible that some other company might acquire Allstream, or that MTS will fail to sell it.

Burkina Faso Coup

Before the end of September, will forces loyal to General Gilbert Diendéré lose control of the Presidential Palace?
Yes: 85%

A coup was launched last week in Burkina Faso, led by former spy chief General Gilbert Diendéré (see article here).  Since then, army leaders against the coup have seized most of the capital city, Ouagadougou, except for the Presidential Palace.  Talks are under way to peacefully resolve the coup.  It sounds like the coup will be resolved peacefully in the near future, with Diendéré handing back control in the near future.

Paul Dewar Cabinet Minister

If the NDP win the next federal election, will Paul Dewar become a cabinet minister?
Yes: 75%
(For the purposes of this question, Ministers of State don't count)

Paul Dewar is the current MP for Ottawa Centre.  He is currently Foreign Affairs critic for the NDP.  He is very likely to be a cabinet minister if the NDP form the government.  He is a relatively experienced and prominent NDP MP, and the only NDP MP in Eastern Ontario.

Saskatchewan Election

Which party will win the most seats in the next Saskatchewan general election?
Saskatchewan Party: 90%
NDP: 10%

The next Saskatchewan election is scheduled for next April (see the Wikipedia article here).  Current polls give the incumbent Saskatchewan Party about 60% of the vote, and the NDP 30% of the vote, which is similar to the last provincial election in 2011.  Barring large changes in the level of support, it seems very likely that the Saskatchewan Party will be returned to power.

Balanced Budget 2016 v2

Will the federal government run a balanced budget in 2016?
Yes: 75%
(The initial budget presented is all that matters; further revisions do not matter)

There have been a number of developments since my last post on this topic here.  In particular, the NDP have promised to run a balanced budget if elected, while the Liberals have said that they will run small deficits.  The Conservatives have continued to pledge that they will run balanced budgets.  Given the NDP promise, a balanced budget in 2016 seems to be more likely than it was earlier.

Mulcair NDP Leader

Will Thomas Mulcair announce his resignation as NDP leader before the end of 2015?
Yes: 20%

Although Thomas Mulcair is currently doing well in the polls, he might well resign if he ends up doing poorly in the election.  This is most likely if the NDP fall back into a distant third place in the election, which is possible if not likely.  He might also resign if the NDP keep second place, but the Conservatives form another majority government.  Expectations for Mulcair are higher than those for Trudeau, so Mulcair is probably more likely to resign if the NDP under-perform.

Trudeau Liberal Party Leader

Will Justin Trudeau announce his resignation as Liberal Party Leader before the end of 2015?
Yes: 15%
(See the notes pertaining to yesterday's question)

Justin Trudeau might conceivably resign if the Liberals do poorly in the upcoming election.  The most likely scenario where this could happen is if the Conservatives or NDP form a majority government, and the Liberals continue as a third-place party.  Even in this scenario, it is no sure thing that Trudeau will resign; he only became leader relatively recently, and the Liberals are almost certain to improve their seat count from the last election, even if they still finish in third place.

Harper Conservative Party Leader

By the end of 2015, will Stephen Harper announce his resignation as Conservative Party Leader?
Yes: 75%
(Harper does not have to actually resign, just announce that he will resign in the near future.  This question will also be triggered if Harper permanently leaves the leadership through some other means in 2015)

Stephen Harper, the current Conservative Party leader (and Prime Minister) will almost certainly resign if the Conservatives do not form the government after the next election.  Current odds suggest the Conservatives have about a 30% chance of forming the next government (see here - I'm not forecasting this because it isn't unusual enough for this blog).  Harper might also resign if the Conservatives form a very weak minority government (although he might stay on for a while for stability reasons in this case).  There is also always the possibility that Harper will leave office for some other, unforeseen reason.  Overall, it seems that Harper is fairly likely to leave office.

Liberal Foreign Affairs Minister

If the Liberals form the next government, who will be the next Foreign Affairs Minister?
Marc Garneau: 20%
Joyce Murray: 10%
Chrystia Freeland: 5%
Ralph Goodale: 5%
Someone Else: 60%

The current Liberal foreign affairs critic is Marc Garneau, who has also run unsuccessfully for the Liberal leadership.  He is probably the most likely choice as minister.  Chrystia Freeland is International Trade critic, although she may be too junior for Foreign Affairs, and may not win her seat.  Ralph Goodale and Joyce Murray are reasonable guesses for any senior cabinet post.

Liberal Finance Minister

If the Liberals form the next government, who will be the next Finance Minister?
Ralph Goodale: 15%
Scott Brison: 15%
Joyce Murray: 10%
Dominic LeBlanc: 5%
Someone Else: 55%

There are several candidates for Finance Minister if the Liberals form the government.  Ralph Goodale has been Finance Minister before, and is currently Deputy Leader.  He also represents an area (Saskatchewan) where the Liberals are relatively weak.  Scott Brison is the current Finance critic.  Joyce Murray was the most successful challenger to Trudeau in the last leadership contest, and is the National Defence critic.  Dominic LeBlanc is House Leader.

With this sort of question, I like to allocate a fair proportion to the field; there are a lot of potential candidates who I have not listed, including those who are not currently MPs.  This is especially true for the Liberals with their relatively small base of current MPs.

Canada Interest Rate October

What will be the result of the October 21st Bank of Canada interest rate announcement?
Rate Cut: 15%
Unchanged Rate: 80%
Rate Increase: 5%

The next interest rate announcement will take place on October 21st.  The expectation seems to be that rates will stay the same (see story here).  According to the article, markets give a 19% chance to a rate cut in October (atlhough this might not be the precise number now).  A rate increase is presumably also possible, especially if the US Fed decides to increase rates.

NDP Defence Minister

If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next Minister of Defence?
Jack Harris: 25%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 25%
Any Other Quebec MP: 30%

The current NDP defence critic is Newfoundland MP Jack Harris.  He seems like the most likely candidate for Defence Minister.  A Quebec defence minister is probably slightly less likely than for other cabinet posts; Quebec seems to have been slightly under-represented among Defence Ministers.

NDP Justice Minister

If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next Minister of Justice?
Françoise Boivin: 15%
Jack Harris: 10%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 30%
Any Other Quebec MP: 25%
(See previous NDP Minister questions for details)

The current NDP Justice Critic is Gatineau MP Françoise Boivin, although St. Johns East MP Jack Harris had also served as Justice Critic.  Howard Hampton, a former Ontario Attorney General, is running in Kenora, although he is not all that likely to be elected there.  My sense is that the front-runners are less strong for this question than for other questions, and that a Quebec Justice Minister is the most likely outcome.

Trudeau Munk Debate

Will Justin Trudeau attend the Munk Debate on foreign policy?
Yes: 80%

Justin Trudeau, the Liberal leader, has said that he may not attend the Muck debate (set to be held on September 28th), which he had previously promised to attend (see story here).  Harper and Mulcair have both indicated that they will attend the debate.  Trudeau has concerns with the audience and the paucity of French segments in the debate.

I think that Trudeau is still very likely to attend the debate.  The letter quoted in the story looks like it  is just for political positioning.  It is generally in the interest of the non-government parties to attend as many debates with Harper as possible   In addition, Trudeau would look bad if he backed out of a debate at the last minute.

NDP Foreign Affairs Minister

If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Paul Dewar: 25%
Hélène Laverdière: 15%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 20%
Any Other Quebec MP: 20%
(See the note about yesterday's question)

The current NDP Foreign Affairs Critic is Ottawa Centre MP Paul Dewar.  Montreal MP Hélène Laverdière has also served as Foreign Affairs critic, and is currently Deputy Critic.  G. Daniel Carron, the NDP candidate in the Quebec City riding of  Louis-Saint-Laurent, is another contender (if he wins the race, which is very uncertain at this point).

I think that Dewar or Laverdière are the most likely candidates.  A Quebec MP is probably more likely for this post than for Finance, given the NDP's over-representation in Quebec.

NDP Finance Minister

If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next finance minister?
Nathan Cullen: 20%
Peggy Nash: 20%
Any Other Western MP: 10%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 25%
Any Quebec MP: 25%
(This question will only count if the NDP form the next government.  For the purposes of this question, the NDP will form the government if the prime minister belongs to the NDP.  "Western" means MB,SK,AB,BC, and the territories)

There has been some speculation about who will be in cabinet if the NDP form the next government (see story here).  The most recent NDP finance critics have been BC MP Nathan Cullen and Ontario MP Peggy Nash.

My sense is that, although Cullen and Nash are the most likely candidates to become finance minister, they are not overwhelming favourites.  Jim Flaherty, the first Conservative finance minister, only became an MP in the 2006 election, and thus was not finance critic before becoming finance minister.  Many other finance ministers seem to have been unsuccessful challengers in previous leadership races (as both Cullen and Nash were).

Regional considerations are often important in selecting cabinet ministers.  According to Poll Tracker. 23% of NDP seats are expected to be in the west, 27% in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and 50% in Quebec.  The total seat split is 32%/45%/23%.  The NDP will have more MPs to choose from in Quebec, but most of those MPs will be less experienced than those in other parts of the country.  I think the likelihood of selecting a finance minister from each region will be approximately proportional to the total number of seats (or total population) in that region.

Manitoba Election

Which party will the most seats in the next Manitoba provincial election?
PC: 85%
NDP: 10%
Liberal: 5%

The next general election in Manitoba is scheduled for April 2016.  Current polls give the PCs 46% of the vote, the NDP 29%, and the Liberals 20%.  The NDP currently form the government.  Given the 17% lead the PCs enjoy in the polls however, they are very likely to win the election.  The Liberals haven't formed the government in Manitoba since they lost the election of 1958, and seem to now be stuck with third party status.  They are even less likely to win then the NDP.

Syrian Refugee Resettlement

By the end of 2015, how many Syrian refugees will the government of Canada agree to resettle?
Less than 15,000: 20%
Between 15,000 and 30,000: 40%
More than 30,000: 40%

(The refugees do not need to be resettled by the end of the year; this question is about the agreement to settle them.  The 10,000 refugees that the government has already agreed to resettle count for the purposes of this question.)

There has been some controversy recently about how many Syrian refugees Canada should take in (see article here).  The Conservative government has already agreed to resettle 10,000 refugees, while the NDP have called for 46,000 refugees to be resettled over 4 years.  The Liberals want to bring in 25,000 (see article here).

Even if the Conservatives do win the election, they are likely to increase the number of refugees resettled due to the current pressure (and might well do so before the election).  In this case, they are likely to increase the number to something close to what the Liberals want.  If the NDP win the election, they will presumably deliver on their campaign promise, although they might not have time to do so by the end of the year.

Egyptian Parliamentary Election

Which bloc will win the most seats in Egypt's upcoming parliamentary elections?
For the Love of Egypt: 35%
Al-Nour Party: 25%
Reawakening of Egypt: 10%
Egyptian Front: 5%
Some other party or bloc: 25%

Egyptian parliamentary elections are scheduled for later this year (see articles here and here).  These will be the first elections after the overthrow of former President Mohammed Morsi by the military.  There are a large number of parties running (see Wikipedia article here).  There do not seem to be any recent opinion polls about the parties, and previous election results are not that helpful (the Islamist Freedom and Justice Party, which won the last election, has been banned in the interim).

The major blocs seem to be the Al-Nour Party (which was second in the last election) and For the Love of Egypt (which contains the New Wafd Party and the Free Egyptians Party, both of which did reasonably well in the last election).  The Al-Nour Party seems to be the main Islamist party, while the For the Love of Egypt seems to be the main liberal party.  Of the more minor parties, Reawakening of Egypt and Egyptian Front seem to be mainly nationalist alliances.

Given the number of parties and the volatility of Egyptian politics, I am not very confident about my predictions in these elections.  It is quite possible that a new party (or a party that I overlooked) could win the election.  The current government may try to sway the vote for or against certain parties (the Al-Nour Party is a likely target in this regard).

(Name changes and changes in composition do not matter for this question.  If a bloc ceases to exist, a prediction for that bloc counts as a prediction for the most significant members of that bloc, if that can be determined.  The result of the election is all that matters for this question, even if that result (for example) is not accepted by the current government)

Guatemalan Election v2

Who will win the next Guatemalan Presidential Election?
Manuel Baldizón: 40%
Jimmy Morales: 30%
Sandra Torres: 15%
Someone else: 15%

The Guatemalan Presidential election (which I had previously posted about here) will take place this Sunday.  The current President, Otto Pérez Molina, who is inelgible to run, resigned recently due to a corruption scandal.  The main three contenders seem to be Jimmy Morales, Manuel Baldizón (leading the main right-wing party), and Sandra Torres (leading the main left-wing party).  According to this article, the leading candidate is still Manuel Baldizón, although he is fading.  From the polls here, it seems to be mainly a race between Baldizón and Morales, with Torres in third, and other candidates well back.  I am increasing my odds for Morales (who I didn't include last time), and decreasing them slightly for Baldizón.  I am also eliminating Alejandro Sinibaldi from my list, since he has declined the nomination.  Some of the minor candidates do remarkably well in some (possibly shady) polls, so I am giving a relatively large weight to "Someone else".

NHL Expansion

Before the end of 2016, will one or both of Quebec City and Las Vegas be granted NHL franchises?
Both: 55%
Las Vegas only: 25%
Quebec City only: 10%
Neither: 10%
(Both an expansion franchise and a relocated franchise count)

Since my last post, Quebec City and Las Vegas have both advanced to "Phase III" of the NHL's expansion process (see article here).  Las Vegas seems to be very likely to get a team, while there seems to be more uncertainty over whether Quebec City will get a team.  The fact that Quebec City and Las Vegas have both advanced so far in the process is a good sign for both bids.  I am substantially increasing my odds for both, relative to my previous posts.

Questions Resolved in August: Other

• Reform Act C-586 has resolved for "yes", as the reform act received royal assent in late June (I missed this at the time).  I said that this had a 25% of happening, which was probably fairly reasonable given the fate of other similar bills stalled in the Senate.
• Mobilicity Acquistion has resolved for "Rogers", which I said had a 15% chance of happening.  I probably overestimated the chance that Mobilicity would be acquired by Telus, and underestimated the chance it would be acquired by Rogers.
• Simcoe North By-Election Date has resolved for "yes", as a by-election is being held tomorrow in Simcoe North.  I said there was a 65% chance of a by-election in 2015.
• Ottawa Cleaners Strike has resolved for "Not before the end of 2015", as the cleaners have agreed to a new contract.  I said this had a 65% chance of happening.
• Hugo Award Best Novel 2015 has resolved for The Three-Body Problem, which I said had a 15% chance of winning. This was the non-slate book that I thought was least likely to win (and in fact it was not in the top 5 nominated books, and was only on the ballot because two other authors declined their nominations).
• Korean DMZ Agreement has resolved for "yes", as North Korea and South Korea reached an agreement after talks lasting several days.  I said this had a 60% chance of happening, which might have been too low.

Question Resolved in August: Election-Related

A number of questions were resolved in August because of the call of the federal election:

• Federal Election Date (and Federal Election Date v2) were resolved for "On or after October 1, 2015" (and "No").  I originally said a election in October had a 70% chance of happening, which I later increased to 90% in April.  Both of these estimates seem reasonable; there was a lot of speculation early in the year about an early election.
• Writ Date Federal Election (and Writ Date Federal Election v2) have resolved for "Before August 15th".  I originally said that a writ date that early had a 15% chance of happening, which I later increased to 30%.  Both of these estimates might have been a bit too low.  I may have put too much credence in the relatively short length of previous campaigns.
• Single Sports Betting has resolved for "No", as the single-event betting law has died in the Senate.  I said this had a 75% chance of happening.
• Remembrance Day Holiday has resolved for "No", as the proposed law to make Remembrance Day a legal holiday has died in the House of Commons.  I said that it had a 85% of failing.