If the Liberals form the next government, who will be the next Foreign Affairs Minister?
Marc Garneau: 20%
Joyce Murray: 10%
Chrystia Freeland: 5%
Ralph Goodale: 5%
Someone Else: 60%
The current Liberal foreign affairs critic is Marc Garneau, who has also run unsuccessfully for the Liberal leadership. He is probably the most likely choice as minister. Chrystia Freeland is International Trade critic, although she may be too junior for Foreign Affairs, and may not win her seat. Ralph Goodale and Joyce Murray are reasonable guesses for any senior cabinet post.
Showing posts with label Conditional. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Conditional. Show all posts
Tuesday, 15 September 2015
Monday, 14 September 2015
Liberal Finance Minister
If the Liberals form the next government, who will be the next Finance Minister?
Ralph Goodale: 15%
Scott Brison: 15%
Joyce Murray: 10%
Dominic LeBlanc: 5%
Someone Else: 55%
There are several candidates for Finance Minister if the Liberals form the government. Ralph Goodale has been Finance Minister before, and is currently Deputy Leader. He also represents an area (Saskatchewan) where the Liberals are relatively weak. Scott Brison is the current Finance critic. Joyce Murray was the most successful challenger to Trudeau in the last leadership contest, and is the National Defence critic. Dominic LeBlanc is House Leader.
With this sort of question, I like to allocate a fair proportion to the field; there are a lot of potential candidates who I have not listed, including those who are not currently MPs. This is especially true for the Liberals with their relatively small base of current MPs.
Ralph Goodale: 15%
Scott Brison: 15%
Joyce Murray: 10%
Dominic LeBlanc: 5%
Someone Else: 55%
There are several candidates for Finance Minister if the Liberals form the government. Ralph Goodale has been Finance Minister before, and is currently Deputy Leader. He also represents an area (Saskatchewan) where the Liberals are relatively weak. Scott Brison is the current Finance critic. Joyce Murray was the most successful challenger to Trudeau in the last leadership contest, and is the National Defence critic. Dominic LeBlanc is House Leader.
With this sort of question, I like to allocate a fair proportion to the field; there are a lot of potential candidates who I have not listed, including those who are not currently MPs. This is especially true for the Liberals with their relatively small base of current MPs.
Saturday, 12 September 2015
NDP Defence Minister
If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next Minister of Defence?
Jack Harris: 25%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 25%
Any Other Quebec MP: 30%
The current NDP defence critic is Newfoundland MP Jack Harris. He seems like the most likely candidate for Defence Minister. A Quebec defence minister is probably slightly less likely than for other cabinet posts; Quebec seems to have been slightly under-represented among Defence Ministers.
Jack Harris: 25%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 25%
Any Other Quebec MP: 30%
The current NDP defence critic is Newfoundland MP Jack Harris. He seems like the most likely candidate for Defence Minister. A Quebec defence minister is probably slightly less likely than for other cabinet posts; Quebec seems to have been slightly under-represented among Defence Ministers.
Friday, 11 September 2015
NDP Justice Minister
If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next Minister of Justice?
Françoise Boivin: 15%
Jack Harris: 10%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 30%
Any Other Quebec MP: 25%
(See previous NDP Minister questions for details)
The current NDP Justice Critic is Gatineau MP Françoise Boivin, although St. Johns East MP Jack Harris had also served as Justice Critic. Howard Hampton, a former Ontario Attorney General, is running in Kenora, although he is not all that likely to be elected there. My sense is that the front-runners are less strong for this question than for other questions, and that a Quebec Justice Minister is the most likely outcome.
Françoise Boivin: 15%
Jack Harris: 10%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 30%
Any Other Quebec MP: 25%
(See previous NDP Minister questions for details)
The current NDP Justice Critic is Gatineau MP Françoise Boivin, although St. Johns East MP Jack Harris had also served as Justice Critic. Howard Hampton, a former Ontario Attorney General, is running in Kenora, although he is not all that likely to be elected there. My sense is that the front-runners are less strong for this question than for other questions, and that a Quebec Justice Minister is the most likely outcome.
Wednesday, 9 September 2015
NDP Foreign Affairs Minister
If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Paul Dewar: 25%
Hélène Laverdière: 15%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 20%
Any Other Quebec MP: 20%
(See the note about yesterday's question)
The current NDP Foreign Affairs Critic is Ottawa Centre MP Paul Dewar. Montreal MP Hélène Laverdière has also served as Foreign Affairs critic, and is currently Deputy Critic. G. Daniel Carron, the NDP candidate in the Quebec City riding of Louis-Saint-Laurent, is another contender (if he wins the race, which is very uncertain at this point).
I think that Dewar or Laverdière are the most likely candidates. A Quebec MP is probably more likely for this post than for Finance, given the NDP's over-representation in Quebec.
Paul Dewar: 25%
Hélène Laverdière: 15%
Any Western MP: 20%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 20%
Any Other Quebec MP: 20%
(See the note about yesterday's question)
The current NDP Foreign Affairs Critic is Ottawa Centre MP Paul Dewar. Montreal MP Hélène Laverdière has also served as Foreign Affairs critic, and is currently Deputy Critic. G. Daniel Carron, the NDP candidate in the Quebec City riding of Louis-Saint-Laurent, is another contender (if he wins the race, which is very uncertain at this point).
I think that Dewar or Laverdière are the most likely candidates. A Quebec MP is probably more likely for this post than for Finance, given the NDP's over-representation in Quebec.
Tuesday, 8 September 2015
NDP Finance Minister
If the NDP form the next federal government, who will be the next finance minister?
Nathan Cullen: 20%
Peggy Nash: 20%
Any Other Western MP: 10%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 25%
Any Quebec MP: 25%
(This question will only count if the NDP form the next government. For the purposes of this question, the NDP will form the government if the prime minister belongs to the NDP. "Western" means MB,SK,AB,BC, and the territories)
There has been some speculation about who will be in cabinet if the NDP form the next government (see story here). The most recent NDP finance critics have been BC MP Nathan Cullen and Ontario MP Peggy Nash.
My sense is that, although Cullen and Nash are the most likely candidates to become finance minister, they are not overwhelming favourites. Jim Flaherty, the first Conservative finance minister, only became an MP in the 2006 election, and thus was not finance critic before becoming finance minister. Many other finance ministers seem to have been unsuccessful challengers in previous leadership races (as both Cullen and Nash were).
Regional considerations are often important in selecting cabinet ministers. According to Poll Tracker. 23% of NDP seats are expected to be in the west, 27% in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and 50% in Quebec. The total seat split is 32%/45%/23%. The NDP will have more MPs to choose from in Quebec, but most of those MPs will be less experienced than those in other parts of the country. I think the likelihood of selecting a finance minister from each region will be approximately proportional to the total number of seats (or total population) in that region.
Nathan Cullen: 20%
Peggy Nash: 20%
Any Other Western MP: 10%
Any Other Ontario/Atlantic Canada MP: 25%
Any Quebec MP: 25%
(This question will only count if the NDP form the next government. For the purposes of this question, the NDP will form the government if the prime minister belongs to the NDP. "Western" means MB,SK,AB,BC, and the territories)
There has been some speculation about who will be in cabinet if the NDP form the next government (see story here). The most recent NDP finance critics have been BC MP Nathan Cullen and Ontario MP Peggy Nash.
My sense is that, although Cullen and Nash are the most likely candidates to become finance minister, they are not overwhelming favourites. Jim Flaherty, the first Conservative finance minister, only became an MP in the 2006 election, and thus was not finance critic before becoming finance minister. Many other finance ministers seem to have been unsuccessful challengers in previous leadership races (as both Cullen and Nash were).
Regional considerations are often important in selecting cabinet ministers. According to Poll Tracker. 23% of NDP seats are expected to be in the west, 27% in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, and 50% in Quebec. The total seat split is 32%/45%/23%. The NDP will have more MPs to choose from in Quebec, but most of those MPs will be less experienced than those in other parts of the country. I think the likelihood of selecting a finance minister from each region will be approximately proportional to the total number of seats (or total population) in that region.
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