Portuguese Prime Minister

Which party will the prime minister of Portugal belong to after the election on October 4th?
Portugal Ahead: 15%
Socialist Party: 80%
Some Other Party: 3%
No Stable Coalition will be Formed: 2%

Because of the potential for coalitions in Portuguese politics, the party that wins the highest percentage of the vote may not be the party that ultimately forms the government.  As I noted in an earlier post, the Socialist Party is currently leading slightly in the polls (their lead of about 2% hasn't changed since my last post).  However, even if they don't get the highest percentage of the vote, they are likely to form the government.  Almost all of the minor parties in Portugal seem to be left-wing, and thus better potential coalition partners with the Socialist Party then with the right-wing Portugal Ahead.  Portugal Ahead would have to win almost a majority of the seats to be assured of forming the government.  Given that they are presently at about 35% of the vote, this is a difficult task.

September Greek Election

Which party will get the highest percentage of the vote in the Greek legislative election scheduled for September 20th?
SYRIZA: 65%
New Democracy: 30%
Some Other Party: 5%

A snap Greek legislative election is to be held on September 20th.  Current polls (summarized here) suggest that SYRIZA, the current governing party, has about a 3% lead over New Democracy, the main opposition party (the other parties are well back).  Given that lead, SYRIZA is the most likely winner of the election.  However, given the volatility of Greek politics, it is quite possible that New Democracy, or even some third party, could end up winning.

Simcoe North By-election Result

Who will win the by-election in the provincial riding of Simcoe North?
Patrick Brown: 90%
Fred Larsen: 9%
Elizabeth Van Houtte: 1%

There will be a by-election in Simcoe North on September 3rd, to allow the new PC leader, Patrick Brown, to take a seat in the legislature.  In the last election, Simcoe North went fairly solidly to the PCs; they got 44% of the vote, the Liberals got 33%, and the NDP 16%.  Given the advantage Brown should have as party leader, and given that the PCs have gained relative to the Liberals since the last election, Brown should be able to win this seat easily.

Pontiac

Which party will win in the riding of Pontiac?
NDP: 80%
Liberal: 12%
Conservative: 8%

Pontiac is a rural Quebec riding that has a significant Anglophone population (38%).  In the last election, the NDP won it from the Conservatives.  In the territory covered by the current riding, the NDP got 47% of the vote, the Conservatives 26%, the Liberals 15%, and the Bloc 10%.  Although the NDP are not polling as well in Quebec as they were in the last election, the Conservatives have lost the advantage of having an incumbent cabinet minister (Lawrence Cannon) running for them.  Given that, the NDP will probably be able to hold on to Pontiac.  They might be challenged by the Liberals, who have increased in the polls in Quebec.

Tammam Salam Leaving Office

Will Tammam Salam leave the office of Prime Minister of Lebanon before the end of 2015?
Yes: 30%
(A temporary exit from office would not count for this question)

There are currently widespread protests going in Lebanon over the lack of trash collection (see story here).  Lebanon has been without a (non-acting) President for more than a year, and is currently ruled by a unity government led by Tammam Salam.  Some of the protesters have called for Salam's resignation, and he has hinted that he may resign if the crisis is not resolved.

I think that Salam will stay in power, at least for the remainder of the year.  His term lasts until 2017, and the current protests seem to fit in with a pattern of instability that has been going on for several years.  The current protests don't seem to be severe enough to bring down the government.

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke

Which party will win in the riding of Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke?
Conservative: 94%
Liberal: 3%
NDP: 3%

Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke is a rural Ontario riding that is north-west of Ottawa.  It is currently held by Conservative MP Cheryl Gallant.  The last election was somewhat unusual in that former Liberal MP Hec Clouthier ran as an independent.  The Conservatives got 53% of the vote, Clouthier 19%, and the NDP and Liberals 13%.  Clouthier isn't planning on running again, so the Liberals should improve their total slightly, but this is still a solid Conservative riding.

New Brunswick Liquor Limits

Will the New Brunswick provincial court find that interprovincial liquor limits are unconstitutional in the case of Gerard Comeau?
Yes: 20%
(The initial decision of the court is all that matters for this question; results on subsequent appeals do not matter.  This question is about the constitutionality of liquor limits, not the judgement against Comeau per se.  A partial finding of unconstitutionality counts)

Gerald Comeau, a New Brunswick resident, is currently challenging a New Brunswick law which limits importation of alcohol into New Brunswick from other provinces (see story here).  He had been caught transporting alcohol into New Brunswick from Quebec by the RCMP.

This sort of case seems like a tough fight for the defendants.  The law in question has been around for a long time, as have interprovincial trade barriers more generally.  The Supreme Court seems to have acquiesced to such barriers in a 1921 decision.  Part of the purpose of this sort of case is to generate discussion about the law in question, even if the case itself is ultimately unsuccessful.

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston

Which party will win in the riding of Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston?
Conservative: 92%
Liberal: 4%
NDP: 4%

Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston is a rural riding which is new for this election (although most of its population comes from Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington) .  In the territory it covers, the Conservatives got 60% of the vote, the NDP 18%, and the Liberals 16%.  The current MP, Scott Reid, was one of the first Ontario Canadian Alliance MPs to be elected (in the substantially overlapping Carleton—Lanark riding).  Given the margin of victory in the last election, the Conservatives are extremely likely to be re-elected here.

Korean DMZ Agreement

Before the end of August, will North and South Korea reach some sort of agreement as the result of current talks?
Yes: 60%
(Any agreement would count, even if no details are made public.  If the current round of talks breaks down, the question will resolve as no, even if future talks before the end of August do lead to an agreement)

Tensions in the DMZ between North and South Korea are somewhat elevated at the moment, due to the wounding of two South Korean soldiers by landmines earlier this month (see article here).  North and South Korean negotiators are currently holding talks to attempt to defuse the tensions.  I think that these talks will be successful, in that some sort of agreement or de-escalation will follow from them.  Incidents in the DMZ seem to be quite common (see the Wikipedia article here), but rarely seem to escalate significantly.

Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes

Which party will win in the riding of Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes?
Conservative: 90%
Liberal: 5%
NDP: 5%

Leeds—Grenville is a rural riding that is a fairly safe Conservative seat.  In the last election, the Conservatives got 60% of the vote, while the NDP got 18% and the Liberals 16%.  The Liberals or NDP would have a lot of ground to cover to win this riding.

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry

Which party will win in the riding of Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry?
Conservative: 90%
Liberal: 8%
NDP: 2%

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry is a rural riding that is a safe seat for the Conservatives.  In the last election, the Conservatives got 62% of the vote, while the Liberals and NDP each got 18%.  It would take a Conservative collapse for them to lose this seat.

Rousseff Leaving Office

When will Dilma Rouseff stop being the president of Brazil?
Before the end of 2015: 15%
In 2016: 25%
Not before the end of 2016: 60%
(A temporary exit from office would not count for this question)

Dilma Rouseff, the President of Brazil, is facing large-scale protests calling for her impeachment (see article here).  Corruption and economic problems seem to be the cause of the protests.  Her support level has apparently fallen to 9%.  Rouseff was re-elected last October, so there seems to be some opposition to impeachment as anti-democratic.

I think that Rouseff will probably manage to stay in office through the end of 2016.  She doesn't seem to have done anything that is serious enough for her to be impeached for it.  Having said that, she might be forced out if economic conditions worsen, or if the protests gain in scale.  Her position now seems to be somewhat precarious, given her low level of support.

Next Turkish Election Date

Will Turkey hold a parliamentary election before the end of 2015?
Yes: 85%

Turkey's election earlier this year resulted in a hung parliament, with no party controlling a majority of the seats.  Negotiations to form a governing coalition have so far failed, and it looks likely that new elections will be necessary (see story here).  The elections are likely to be in November.  It is possible that the coalition talks will yet succeed, or that elections could be delayed beyond the end of the year, but that does not seem likely given the current situation.

Capital Taxi Agreement

When will Capital Taxi Drivers reach an agreement with Coventry Connections over dispatch fees?
Before the end of August: 45%
In September: 35%
Not before the end of September: 20%
(An agreement must be accepted by drivers in order to count)

Since August 1st, Capital taxi drivers have been withholding fees to their dispatch service, Coventry Connections, over a dispute over fees (see story here).  This dispute is separate from the airport taxi strike.  Blueline drivers, who had also been withholding fees, recently reached an agreement (see story here).

I think that Capital taxi drivers will likely reach an agreement before the end of August, and almost certainly reach an agreement before the end of September.  The recent agreement with Blueline taxi drivers is an encouraging sign.

Ottawa Airport Taxi Strike

When will the taxi strike at the Ottawa Airport End?
Before August 21: 30%
Between August 21 and August 31: 25%
In September: 25%
Not Before the end of September: 20%
(In order to trigger this question, regular taxi service must resume at the Ottawa airport.)

Airport taxi drivers are currently protesting a fee increase for picking up passengers at the airport (see story here).  The protest has been going on since last Tuesday, although a recent court order has decreased the intensity somewhat.

I think that the strike will probably end in August, quite possibly in the next week, although it could drag on into September.  The level of disruption caused by the strike will probably mean that it does not last as long as it might otherwise.

Next Greek Election Date

Will Greece hold a legislative election before the end of 2015?
Yes: 65%
(A referendum or by-election would not count for purposes of this question)

The Greek PM, Alexis Tsipras, has called for a confidence vote next week (see story here).  If he loses the vote, elections will be held in September.  Many MPs in his own party voted against the recent bailout deal, which was supported by Tsipras.  The main opposition party, New Democracy, will not be supporting Tsipras in the confidence vote.

From what I can tell, Tsipiras will probably lose the upcoming confidence vote.  Even if he does win this vote, an election could be held later in the year due to another confidence vote.  Greece has held closely spaced elections before; it held two legislative elections in 2012 after the first election failed to lead to a stable government.

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell

Which party will win in the riding of Glengarry—Prescott—Russell?
Conservative: 60%
Liberal: 35%
NDP: 5%

Glengarry—Prescott—Russell is a rural riding which is a relatively weak riding for the Conservatives, possibly due to the large Francophone population.  In the last election, the Conservatives got 49% of the vote, the Liberals 31%, and the NDP 17%.  The Conservatives are probably slightly less likely to win here than in Nepean, where their support is slightly stronger.

Hugo Award Best Novel 2015

What book will win the 2015 Hugo Award for best novel?
Ancillary Sword: 30%
The Goblin Emperor: 20%
The Three-Body Problem: 15%
Another Book: 20%
No Award: 15%

There has been some controversy this year over the Hugo Awards, a set of science fiction and fantasy awards, due to the somewhat successful attempts of two conservative groups to nominate slates of candidates. Two of the nominees for best novel (Skin Game and The Dark Between the Stars) seem to belong to those slates.  There seems to have been a strong negative reaction to these efforts, with some planning to vote for "No Award" instead of some or all of the nominees.  See the post here for more details.

My impression is that Ancillary Sword, which seems to be the strongest of the non-slate books, will probably win.  A "No Award" outcome is possible but fairly unlikely, as is a victory for one of the slate books.  The other two non-slate books could also win.

Gatineau

Which party will win in the riding of Gatineau?
NDP: 95%
Bloc Québécois: 3%
Liberal: 2%

In the last election, the NDP won in Gatineau with 62% of the vote, while the Bloc got 15%, the Liberals 14% and the Conservatives 8%.  Given the margin of victory in this riding, it would take an almost complete NDP collapse for them to lose this riding.  If they do lose, the Bloc are probably more likely to regain the riding (which they held before 2011).

Hull—Aylmer

Which party will win in the riding of Hull—Aylmer?
NDP: 85%
Liberal: 13%
Conservative: 1%
Bloc Québécois: 1%

Hull—Aylmer went strongly for the NDP in the last election; they got 59% of the vote, while the Liberals got 20%, and the Conservatives 10%.  It would take a complete NDP collapse in Quebec for this riding to go back to the Liberals, and it is very unlikely to go to the Conservatives or the Bloc.

Carleton

Which party will win in the riding of Carleton?

Conservative: 90%

Liberal: 8%

NDP: 2%

Carleton is another new riding for this election, from parts of Nepean-Carleton and Carleton-Mississippi Mills.  It is more rural than Nepean and Kanata-Carleton, and has a Conservative incumbent, Pierre Poilievre.  In the last election, the vote split in the territory represented by Carleton was 61% Conservative, 21% Liberal, and 13% NDP.  It would take a true collapse by the Conservatives for them to lose in this riding.

Kanata—Carleton

Which party will win in the riding of Kanata-Carleton?
Conservative: 75%
Liberal: 20%
NDP: 5%

Kanata-Carleton is another new riding formed for this election, mainly out of Carleton—Mississippi Mills.  It is very similar to Nepean in terms of the vote distribution.  In the territory represented by this riding in the last election, the Conservatives got 54% of the vote, the Liberals 26%, and the NDP 15%.  The Conservatives are probably slightly more likely to win here than in Nepean, because of their higher support in the last election.

Nepean

Which party will win in the riding of Nepean?
Conservative: 70%
Liberal: 25%
NDP: 5%

Nepean is a new riding for this election, formed out of the old Nepean-Carleton riding.  Nepean-Carleton was solidly Conservative, and the redistributed results for this riding are 51% Conservative, 27% Liberal, and 18% NDP.   Given the erosion of Conservative support generally, it is possible that this riding could be captured by the Liberals, but that would take a shift in support from the current poll numbers.  The NDP could only capture this riding if their support increases greatly.

Orléans

Which party will win in the riding of Orléans?
Liberal: 70%
Conservative: 25%
NDP: 5%

Orléans (formerly Ottawa-Orléans) is very much a swing riding.  In the last election, the Conservatives got 45% of the vote, the Liberals 38%, and the NDP 14%.  Given the erosion of Conservative support, the Liberals will likely win in this riding, although it is possible that the Conservatives could pull off an upset (the NDP are very unlikely to win in this riding).

Ottawa South

Which party will win in the riding of Ottawa South?
Liberal: 95%
Conservative: 4%
NDP: 1%

Ottawa South is a very solid Liberal seat; in the last election, the Liberals got 44% of the vote, the Conservatives 33%, and the NDP 18%.  It would take a huge Liberal collapse for them to lose this seat, especially since they are polling better now than in the last election, and the Conservatives are polling worse.

Ottawa-West Nepean

Which party will win in the riding of Ottawa-West Nepean?
Liberal: 55%
Conservative: 35%
NDP: 10%

Ottawa-West Nepean is very much a swing riding in this election.  In the last election, the Conservatives (running John Baird) won it with 45% of the vote, while the Liberals got 32% and the NDP 20%.  Given the drop in Conservative support, and the loss of Baird, the Conservatives will probably end up losing the riding this time around to the Liberals.  The NDP could win if they do very well in the campaign (and the Liberals collapse).

Mulcair French Citizenship

By the end of the federal election campaign, will Thomas Mulcair announce that he is renouncing his French citizenship?
Yes: 10%
(Mulcair does not need to actually renounce his French citizenship during the campaign, but he does have to announce that he will do so whether or not he wins the election)

Thomas Mulcair, the federal NDP leader, has dual French-Canadian citizenship.  There has been some criticism of him for not renouncing his French citizenship (see article here, for instance).  He has promised to renounce his French citizenship if he wins the election.  Former Liberal leader Stéphane Dion also had dual French-Canadian citizenship, and did not renounce it.

I think that nothing will happen during the campaign; Mulcair has already decided what to do about his French citizenship, and the issue will likely not receive much attention in the campaign.  If it does receive attention, it is possible that Mulcair will renounce his citizenship, although he seems reluctant to do so.

Ottawa-Vanier

Which party will win in the riding of Ottawa-Vanier?
Liberal: 90%
NDP: 8%
Conservative: 2%
Ottawa-Vanier is a very solid Liberal riding (it has gone Liberal since its creation in 1933).  Even in the last election (where the Liberals in general did rather poorly), the Liberal candidate got 38% of the vote, while the NDP got 29% and the Conservatives 27%.  It would take a huge Liberal collapse for them to lose this riding.

Ottawa Centre

Now that the federal election has been called, I will be making riding-by-riding projections for Ottawa-area ridings (starting with the centre and moving outwards).  I'll mainly base my numbers on ThreeHundredEight.com, but I'll occasionally deviate from their forecasts.  For all of these questions, the question will be about the winning party (not the winning candidate).

Which party will win in the riding of Ottawa Centre?
NDP: 95%
Liberal: 4%
Conservatives: 1%
The NDP have held Ottawa Centre since 2004, and won with around 50% of the vote in the last election (the Liberals and Conservatives each got around 20%).  It would take a true NDP collapse for them to lose this riding (and even then, it would probably be close).  If the NDP do lose, the Liberals are much more likely than the Conservatives to win in this riding, although the Conservatives did finish second last time.

Questions Resolved in July Part 2

• Q150 (Iran Nuclear Agreement) has resolved for "In the month of July" as the P5+1 reached a final agreement with Iran this month.  I said that an agreement in July had a 35% chance of happening, and an agreement in June or July had a 60% chance of happening.  I probably should have increased my odds slightly for an agreement in July; as I said in my original forecast, these sorts of agreements almost never happen before the deadline.
• Q156 (Calypso Fine) has resolved for "$400,000 to $1,000,000", as Calypso has been fined $500,000 (including a $100,000 victim surcharge).  I said this had a 50% chance of happening (with 4 bins), which seems about right.
• Q163 (Greek Bailout) has resolved for "In the month of July", as a deal to release further bailout funds to Greece was reached in July.  I said a deal had a 20% chance of being reached in July, which was probably a bit too low (I put too much faith in the original June 30th deadline), and a 60% chance of being reached overall, which was about right.
• Q164 (Loblaws Strike) has resolved for "Not before August 31st", as a new contract has been signed between Loblaws workers and employees.  I said this had a 60% chance of happening, which seems about right.
• Q166 (Greek Referendum) has resolved for "The Creditors' Proposal will not be Approved".  I said there was 50% chance that the referendum would be held at all, which was too low, and a 60% chance that the "no" side would win if a referendum was held, which seems about right (the conventional wisdom at the time was that the "yes" side would win, but polls did not really support that belief).
• Q167 (Greek Banks) has resolved for "After July 6th", as Greek banks re-opened on July 20th.  I said that this had a 30% chance of happening.  I may have put too much weight on the originally scheduled July 6th date for banks to re-open.
• Q173 (Canada Interest Rate July) has resolved for "Rate Cut", as the Bank of Canada has cut the overnight rate target to 0.5% from 0.75%.  I gave 25% odds of a rate cut.  This was probably reasonable; most economists at the time did not think a rate cut would happen.

Questions Resolved in July Part 1

14 questions resolved in July.  I'll look at the first 7 today, and the next 7 tomorrow.

• Q19 (Islamist Terrorism in the US) has resolved for yes, as the Chattanooga shootings count as Islamist terrorism by my broad definition.  I said there was a 35% chance of lethal Islamist terrorist attack in the US in 2015, which might have been slightly too low.
• Q42 (Eve Adams Electoral Success) has resolved for "Not be nominated" and Q192 (Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal Candidate) has resolved for "Marco Mendicino", as the result of the loss of Eve Adams in the Eglinton-Lawrence Liberal nomination race.  I originally said Eve Adams had a 20% chance of not being nominated, and later increased that to 35%.  Those numbers might be too low, but I think it is genuinely surprising that such a high-profile candidate would lose a nomination battle.  She did not get the central party support I originally expected. 
• Q44 (Nepean Conservative Candidate) has resolved for "Someone Else", as Andy Wang has won the nomination.  I said "Someone Else" had a 35% chance of winning.  My odds for Lisa MacLeod in this question were probably too high; I gave her a 50% chance of winning.
• Q56 (Translink Referendum) has resolved for "No", which I said had a 80% chance of happening.  This seems about right; this sort of referendum rarely succeeds, and polling indicated it would fail.
• Q65 (EU Russian Sanctions) has resolved for "Extend the current sanctions" which I said had a 50% chance of happening.  That might have been too low; the status quo is usually the best bet in cases like this.
• Q86 (Federal Funding LRT) has resolved for "yes", as the federal government has promised to fund Phase 2 of Ottawa's LRT project.  I said this had a 65% chance of happening, which is probably too low based on how quickly the funding was announced.